This year's Cardinals kind of remind me of the 2011 49ers

[The Battle #83]

They will always be the lowly Cardinals, but for now you cant dismiss their record since the end of last year. Especially with the injuries to key players. It's impressive.

 

[Popeyejones]

Popeye, Detroit was not middle of the road last season, they were ranked 23rd, mostly because of their DBs.

17th out of 32 in yards per game and 18th out of 32 in points per game. That's solidly middle of road.

They didn't draft a single DB nor did they sign any FA's for that weakness. Darius Slay will never be a pro bowler. They kid is always getting burned. They lost Tulloch in their LB corps and also two Safeties are out. They have been getting lucky breaks on defense.

The only thing you're leaving out, and what I've seen from them so far, is that they've got a new defensive coordinator -- Teryl Austin -- who is beating teams on scheme.

FWIW I'm not the only person talking about this:

http://sidelionreport.com/2014/09/29/cr ... g-defense/

http://espn.go.com/blog/detroit-lions/p ... -effective

http://sidelionreport.com/2014/09/30/de ... d-edition/

http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2014/10/0 ... n-detroit/


Meanwhile, IMO, the Cardinals are still trying to play a scheme in which they no longer have the horses to be consistently successful.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Ringless has got you there, Largent. :lol:

 

[Popeyejones]

That is the other reason Tate went to Detroit, to get more footballs thrown his way. What is a coupla million bucks to these guys.

According to him they offered him nearly twice as much money AND he was going to get more balls thrown his way. Pretty easy decision, IMO.










And we can't forget the third good reason to go: he hadn't had sex with Matthew Stafford's wife yet.

 

[Seahwkgal]

We do know the events involving Tate's departure from the team. We don't need a re-cap.
Your links are nothing new to me. You do know that I live in Michigan don't you? I have to hear all that crap from EVERYONE I know out here. They are so jealous of my Hawks it's funny. So, no new news there.
And.....
Matt is not married yet.

 

[SalishHawkFan]

Lions were 14th defensively in DVOA. Cardinals were 2nd. So yeah, Lions were middle of the road. So far this year, Lions are 2nd defensively in DVOA and Cardinals are s3rd.

While it's still early for DVOA analysis, that's a huge improvement. It may be a fluke or it may be a sign of the new scheme in Detroit quickly paying off. Probably a little bit of the fact teams haven't had enough film on what Detroit is doing just yet, but by the time they do, that defense isn't going to fall back to being 14th again. That, plus a much easier schedule for Detroit and I could see the Lions finishing within a game either way of the Cardinals. I see both teams going to the playoffs this year.

As for flukeyness, the 2011 Niners had a flukey turnover ratio that was unsustainable because it came from a large number of fumbles bouncing their way. Fumble recoveries are an unsustainable stat. While it was true they stripped the ball a lot, much the way our Hawks do, they still got lucky and average those recoveries out and their turnover ratio was not as impressive. This year so far, Arizona is not boosting their wins on an inordinate amount of lucky bounces. They have a better QB than SF had (EDIT: just read Palmer's probably finished so scratch that part), a very good defense that seems to be doing the "next man up" routine Seattle is so successful at, they make good offenses look bad. They hang in games. They won't go 13-3 unless the ball starts bouncing their way and they pick up the flukey turnovers like the 2011 Niners did, but they should finish around 11-5, good enough for a playoff team.

 

[Largent80]

Ringless has got you there, Largent. :lol:

Our schedule has been way tougher than theirs because of the weekly parity of the NFL, lets see how they fare this week, when they actually have to play a good team. As Chuck Knox stated with so much accuracy..."it's not WHO you play, but WHEN you play them"...See Dal-ASS week one, and now. I'm not impressed by AZ in the LEAST.

 

[Marvin49]

OK.

I see where you are coming from...but despite the fact that the Niners lost to them, I just don't see the Cards as nearly as good as their pub.

I know MANY said the exact same thing of the 2011 Niners and their ludicrous Turnover margin and 3 rushing TDs ALL YEAR.

For me though...and maybe this is the exact same reason many here don't have respect for Kaepernick...I just don't see how great the Cards are when the Niners play them head to head. This is particularly true with Patrick Peterson whom I loved in college but see him now and seems virtually invisible in Niner games.

I see the hubbub over "Who's the best corner: Sherman or Peterson" and it makes me laugh. Crabtree owns Peterson. Against the 49ers SO FAR, Peterson has been "just a guy". Maybe that's much different against other teams, but that's what I see.

 

[Popeyejones]

As for flukeyness, the 2011 Niners had a flukey turnover ratio that was unsustainable because it came from a large number of fumbles bouncing their way. Fumble recoveries are an unsustainable stat. While it was true they stripped the ball a lot, much the way our Hawks do, they still got lucky and average those recoveries out and their turnover ratio was not as impressive.

All absolutely true, and this was the big question about the actual quality of the 9ers defense going into the 2012 season. That said, we do have the benefit of hindsight, and while the 2011 9ers fumble recoveries were definitely fluky, the quality of their defense wasn't.

This year so far, Arizona is not boosting their wins on an inordinate amount of lucky bounces.

Not implying you haven't, but have you watched all their games this year? You can't pinpoint a single thing like fumble recoveries across these three games, but they do have two things in common across all of them:

1) They've been losing for the majority of them.

2) They've benefited from unsustainable unforced errors by their opponents. I'm talking about things that the Cardinals literally can't be given any credit at all for: a backup center with an errant snap pushing his team out of field goal range in a one point game in the fourth quarter; Rashad Jennings fumbling in the fourth quarter in the red zone without ever even coming within five feet of a defender; Vicor Cruz dropping three money 20 yards passes in the second half without any defenders near him; having their opponent increase the Cards' offensive output by 25% through penalties, etc.

They of course could start playing better and be a force to be reckoned with, but if they keep playing as they have been playing, I just can't see them sustaining this level of success.

a very good defense that seems to be doing the "next man up" routine Seattle is so successful at, they make good offenses look bad.

Definitely off topic, but what's the backstory of Hawks fans claiming ownership if this hoary sports cliche?

 

[loafoftatupu]

OK.

I see where you are coming from...but despite the fact that the Niners lost to them, I just don't see the Cards as nearly as good as their pub.

I know MANY said the exact same thing of the 2011 Niners and their ludicrous Turnover margin and 3 rushing TDs ALL YEAR.

For me though...and maybe this is the exact same reason many here don't have respect for Kaepernick...I just don't see how great the Cards are when the Niners play them head to head. This is particularly true with Patrick Peterson whom I loved in college but see him now and seems virtually invisible in Niner games.

I see the hubbub over "Who's the best corner: Sherman or Peterson" and it makes me laugh. Crabtree owns Peterson. Against the 49ers SO FAR, Peterson has been "just a guy". Maybe that's much different against other teams, but that's what I see.

Great post Marv..

To put it simply, when I see the Cards shutting teams down, getting turnovers week after week while relentlessly running the ball down opponents throat that results in numerous 12 play, 60 yard, 8 minute drives for the entire season I will think the Cards look like the 2011 Niners.

Arians likes to gamble on offense and when it pays off he looks like a great coach, but those gambles are very Rex Grossmanesque. Honestly, I had the Cards at 2-1 right now with the Niners game being a loss. A win for the Cards that had a lot more to do with the Niners than it did the Cards.

I just haven't seen anything that leads me to believe the Cards are poised for a season like the Niners had in 2011. Not in 3 games.

 

[Scottemojo]

What the Cards do may seem flukey, but they made the SB playing just that way. Look at the scores from that season. They got hot at the right time and damn near won the whole thing, riding a wave of unsustainable turnovers.

As of now, the blitz all the damn time scheme is working. Vs Denver, they will scale if back if hubris hasn't overtaken their plan of attack. Manning has the quickest release in ball, blitzing him just gives his short pass dudes less players to beat. I am guessing they know that, and will attack far far less then they have up to now.

For us, we don't have to watch any game tape for the Cards but week 16 last year. Because that is exactly the attack we will get the first time we play them this year.

 

[frosted21]

Ringless has got you there, Largent. :lol:

Our schedule has been way tougher than theirs because of the weekly parity of the NFL, lets see how they fare this week, when they actually have to play a good team. As Chuck Knox stated with so much accuracy..."it's not WHO you play, but WHEN you play them"...See Dal-ASS week one, and now. I'm not impressed by AZ in the LEAST.

Haha cop out, you were wrong just admit it.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Definitely off topic, but what's the backstory of Hawks fans claiming ownership if this hoary sports cliche?

Where have you seen it claimed by any Seahawks fans? First time I saw it was years and years ago on an Oakland Raiders forum, personally; can't say I've even noticed it being some Seahawks-specific thing. Now I'm curious.

What the Cards do may seem flukey, but they made the SB playing just that way. Look at the scores from that season. They got hot at the right time and damn near won the whole thing, riding a wave of unsustainable turnovers.

I'd say the 2010 Packers were a flukey team that got hot at the right time, too; in kind of a different way, though.

 

[loafoftatupu]

What the Cards do may seem flukey, but they made the SB playing just that way. Look at the scores from that season. They got hot at the right time and damn near won the whole thing, riding a wave of unsustainable turnovers.

That was a team that was all about offense. They had a very experienced arm in Warner and an extremely talented pair of receivers in Fitz and Boldin, with an active Breaston reaping the benefits of coverage towards the primary targets. They had some timely turnovers but couldn't stop teams from anything. It was like Warner was playing catch with 2 guys that made amazing catches every game.

Now we are talking about a QB that hasn't had enough starts with the team to have established any tendencies or habits. No real footage to plan against for coordinators. As the status of Palmer continues to be in question that will change rapidly.

I actually wanted that 2008 team to win over the Steelers, it was fun football to watch with all the craziness they brought. Warner took some blistering hits though.

 

[RolandDeschain]

2009 wild card weekend, Packers @ Cardinals: 51-45 final score, Cardinals win.

NICE DEFENSE, GUYS! :lol:

 

[Scottemojo]

What the Cards do may seem flukey, but they made the SB playing just that way. Look at the scores from that season. They got hot at the right time and damn near won the whole thing, riding a wave of unsustainable turnovers.

That was a team that was all about offense. They had a very experienced arm in Warner and an extremely talented pair of receivers in Fitz and Boldin, with an active Breaston reaping the benefits of coverage towards the primary targets. They had some timely turnovers but couldn't stop teams from anything. It was like Warner was playing catch with 2 guys that made amazing catches every game.

Now we are talking about a QB that hasn't had enough starts with the team to have established any tendencies or habits. No real footage to plan against for coordinators. As the status of Palmer continues to be in question that will change rapidly.

I actually wanted that 2008 team to win over the Steelers, it was fun football to watch with all the craziness they brought. Warner took some blistering hits though.

I know they were all about offense.

Now go google the playoff turnovers their D created in those same playoffs. It is insane.

 

[kearly]

J.F.C. man......Kearly you're totally off base with the backhanded compliments of a great 2011 49er team.

I was unimpressed with them in 2011. But in the last couple years I changed that opinion when I realized that winning with an annoying style of football is not purely a factor of luck. A lot of it is coaching.

I do think the 2012 and 2013 49ers teams were better but that's not a putdown of the 2011 team. Everyone knows the 49ers got better after 2011.

Given that I am saying really nice things about the 2014 Cards, I'm not sure how you got the idea that I'm slamming the team I'm comparing them to. The status of the 2011 Niners after four weeks was pretty similar to the status of Arizona right now. Maybe the paths diverge later on, but so far the Cardinals have been on that kind of path, despite having less star power.

 

[kearly]

They beat the Giants and your 49ers with a CFL caliber QB who currently sports the NFL's lowest completion rate.

True, but in the current offensive scheme no Cards QB will ever have a high completion rate because that's not the passing game they play.

Another way to look at it is that he has an awful completion percentage. and even with QB Rating (which is biased toward completion percentage), he's middle of the pack in the league (83.5).

Thankfully for us, Palmer might be done playing in the NFL this year, maybe for good. You should look up his numbers from the end of last season, he was one of the most productive QBs in the NFL during a record breaking season for offense.

But yeah, with Stanton it's not been the prettiest. Hence the point I was making, which is that they are 2-0 when he starts despite his suckiness. And it's not like Arizona was beating the Jags or Raiders those weeks either.

 

[NINEster]

Roland, Justin Smith is merely (very) good now but in 2011 he was playing out of his mind. Easily the best player on the entire team. That guy on this current team probably carries the 49ers to 4-0 with nothing else changed. Was all pro at DE and DT, first time in league history that's been done.

Forget the Watt comparison, the guy was on another level, like comparing Gore now to 2006. If we had an '06 Gore playing on the Harbaugh Niners, we win a SB guaranteed.

The 2011 team took the league by storm and nobody had an answer until the next season.

 

[kearly]

Justin Smith was very good. I don't mind the comparison to a non-2012 JJ Watt.

Regarding your Gore comment, I would argue that if either of the last two 49ers teams had 2011's "collective career year" run defense and turnover ratio, they win it all most likely.

I guess to me the essence of an annoying defense is one that is completely built around the idea of not allowing other teams to do what they want to do. The first rule of keeping a team from doing what they want to do is to make them 1 dimensional. The 2011 Niners took away the run game as well as any team in history.

The 2011 Niners defense was an elite defense, but the way they dominated so much through run D and game plan disruption was more like smothering someone with a pillow as opposed to teams like the '85 Bears or '00 Ravens that swung a hammer. Those two storied defenses ruled through sheer force and intimidation. They broke QBs bodies. The 2011 Niners D broke things too. They broke opposing OC's headsets after those OC's flung them against the wall in frustration.

Both get the job done, and that's all that matters. If anything, teams that play an annoying style of defense like the 2011 Niners and 2014 Cardinals tend to be under-rated.