Tokadub's Power Rankings including Total Wins for every team

[Tokadub]

I.... I don't even know what your new list is hoping to accomplish. Is this a minimum/maximum? Or revised win totals?

In this case I am just going to multiply all the team's current win totals by 5 which accounts for 15 of the games.

 

[Scottemojo]

Puff, puff, give.

 

[Tokadub]

OK even though I'm the only one who seems to understand this thread (it is simply my initial predictions from the OP + occasional updated projections with the green number for what teams are currently on pace for).

So because we just finished week 5 we can multiply each teams current win totals by 3.

EXAMPLE for this week:

Team's Current Win Total x 3 (to simulate a complete season) = Green Number

For teams that have already had a bye week that is potentially 3 wins missing from their Green Number based on this weeks calculation.

The initial calculation only accounts for 15 games:

Week 5 Win Total x 3 = 15 Game Win Total (approximately a complete season)

So for teams that had a bye I will be adding 2 wins to their Green Number (Win Projection), for all other teams it will simply be their current win totals multiplied by 3.

ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW SIMPLIFIED:

The Green number for their win totals is the most accurate prediction we have after week 5 for how many wins each team will have by the end of the season, it is based on purely math using their current win totals at this point of the season (they have nothing to do with my original predictions). The green numbers are intended to be an easy way to track how teams are doing so far and where they will end up if they keep winning at their current rate.

OK here goes... *crosses fingers and prays that a few people understand this is my original prediction VS the green number which is the best mathematical way to predict their final win total at this time* :th2thumbs:



Week 5 Projected Win Totals (Green Number) VS My Original Predictions (everything not green):

14 Wins
1) Seahawks 11 Wins


13 Wins


12 Wins
2) Broncos 11 Wins
3) Saints 6 Wins


11 Wins
4) Packers 9 Wins
5) Eagles 12 Wins
6) Lions 9 Wins


10 Wins
7) Patriots 9 Wins
8 Colts 9 Wins


9 Wins
9) 49ers 9 Wins
10) Dolphins 8 Wins
11) Cardinals 11 Wins


8 Wins
12) Falcons 6 Wins
13) Panthers 9 Wins
14) Chiefs 6 Wins
15) Steelers 9 Wins
16) Chargers 12 Wins
17) Bengals 9 Wins


7 Wins
18) Titans 3 Wins
19) Bears 6 Wins
20) Cowboys 12 Wins
21) Jets 3 Wins
22) Bills 9 Wins


6 Wins
23) Texans 9 Wins
24) Vikings 6 Wins
25) Ravens 9 Wins


5 Wins
26) Rams 5 Wins
27) Redskins 3 Wins
28) Giants 9 Wins
29) Jaguars 0 Wins


4 Wins
30) Browns 8 Wins
31) Buccaneers 3 Wins


3 Wins
32) Raiders 2 Wins

 

[RolandDeschain]

 

[Hasselbeck]

Toka.. I sort of get what you're trying to do... but I'm sorry... this is terrible :lol:

Not to mention.. your "system" finishes with a league record of 242-270 .. so no.. its not mathematical at all. You're just taking predictions that were off to begin with, and now multiplying win totals by random digits.

 

[Tokadub]

Toka.. I sort of get what you're trying to do... but I'm sorry... this is terrible :lol:

Not to mention.. your "system" finishes with a league record of 242-270 .. so no.. its not mathematical at all. You're just taking predictions that were off to begin with, and now multiplying win totals by random digits.

Sigh... I guess I'm just on a different plane mentally than pretty much 80% of the people who commented on this thread.

My predictions were probably better than anyone else on this forum to begin with for each teams win total, but I guess we'll never know since nobody else on this forum has the nuts to throw down a league wide win prediction... everyone who has commented on my original prediction now looks silly because my prediction has been way better than the national media guys for the most part... (Saints only exception so far but I expect them to rally hard and prove me right)...

LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE PERSON WHO DOESN'T UNDERSTAND HOW THE TOTALS DON'T ADD UP TO THE EXACT TOTALS FOR 100's of games this season... I feel sorry for you

I PREDICTED THESE TOTALS BY STRAIGHT UP INSTINCT LOOKING AT EACH TEAM'S SCHEDULE....

THAT MEANS THAT THE WHOLE ORIGINAL POST TOOK ABOUT 15 MINUTES, YOU ARE SUGGESTING THAT I SHOULD SPEND HOURS TO MAKE SURE IT MATCHES UP PERFECTLY WITH EACH AND EVERY GAME THE ENTIRE SEASON....

YOU ARE SERIOUSLY ASKING TOO MUCH, I'M SORRY THAT YOU CAN'T UNDERSTAND THIS INCREDIBLY SIMPLE POST I'VE SET FORTH FOR THE BENEFIT OF OUR COMMUNITY.

THE GREEN WIN PREDICTIONS ARE BASICALLY AS FAIR AS YOU COULD POSSIBLY PROJECT THE WIN TOTALS. I COULD OF MULTIPLIED THE BYE TEAMS BY 4 SO THEY WOULD HAVE A TOTAL OF EXACTLY 16 BUT THAT WOULD BE UNFAIR TO THE MAJORITY NON-BYE TEAMS WHO ARE MISSING A GAME IN THIS PROJECTION.

SIMPLY PUT THESE GREEN NUMBER PROJECTIONS ARE LITERALLY THE MOST ACCURATE PROJECTION YOU COULD POSSIBLY HAVE MATHEMATICALLY AT THIS POINT.

I DOUBLE DOGGY DARE YOU TO PROVE ME WRONG (my green projections are the best you can possibly do at this point for the ENTIRE NFL)...

AND I STILL AM CONFIDENT THAT MY ORIGINAL WIN PREDICTIONS WHERE I TOOK 1 SINGLE GLANCE AT EACH TEAM'S SCHEDULE AND PREDICTED THEIR WIN TOTAL IS PRETTY DANG ACCURATE, WAY BETTER THAN ANYONE I'VE SEEN WHETHER IN PROFESSIONAL MEDIA OR FAN FORUMS...

THE MAJORITY OF THE GREEN MATHEMATICALLY 100% ACCURATE PROJECTIONS ARE CLOSE TO MY PREDICTIONS AND I STILL SUSPECT THE TEAMS THAT ARE OVER MY ORIGINAL PREDICTIONS TO FALL BY THE END OF THE SEASON, AND THE ONES THAT ARE BEHIND WILL RISE. IN OTHER WORDS IM STILL 100% CONFIDENT IN MY Week 1 Power Rankings/ win TOTALS. I don't care who doubts me...

If you think my math is off consider a team that is 2-2 right now and had a bye week. According to my formula:

A TEAM THAT IS 2-2:

2 Wins x 3 = 6 wins total (green number)...

+2 for bye week = 8 wins (green number)...

So a 2-2 team that has a bye week in my projection comes out to exactly 8 wins which is mathematically correct in my formula....

2-2 = 8-8 in this formula...

I'm not gonna multiply the bye weeks by 4 even though it would equal exactly 16 as the projected games, it's not fair to 75% of the teams that are still at a 15 game win total under these formulas....

So basically what I'm saying is UR WRONG... this is mathematically the closest prediction you could get for the ENTIRE LEAGUE... I'm not trying to favor bye teams this is legit math...

UR clearly not a "careful" thinker on this topic, so if you can't understand simple math and statistics just don't comment, nothing I did here was wrong... People who don't understand I'm sorry to say aren't thinking hard enough.

 

[Tokadub]

EDIT:

Drunk rant no longer necessary :thirishdrinkers:

 

[CANHawk]

Anything that requires this much explanation can't be good...

 

[JesterHawk]

Has the Nobel Prize committee called yet? This is amazing.

 

[Tokadub]

So because we just finished week 8 we can multiply each teams current win totals by 2.

EXAMPLE for this week:

Team's Current Win Total x 2 (to simulate a complete season) = Green Number

For teams that have already had a bye week that is potentially 2 wins missing from their Green Number based on this weeks calculation.

So for teams that had a bye I will be adding 1 win to their Green Number (Win Projection), for all other teams it will simply be their current win totals multiplied by 2. The reason I am adding 1 to their win projection is because if they won their bye game that would be +2 in their projection, a loss would be +0 so statistically the most accurate way to do this is to just add +1.


Week 8 Projected Win Totals (Green Number) VS My Original Predictions (everything not green):

14 Wins
1) Seahawks 9 Wins


13 Wins


12 Wins
2) Broncos 13 Wins
3) Saints 7 Wins


11 Wins
4) Packers 10 Wins
5) Eagles 11 Wins
6) Lions 12 Wins


10 Wins
7) Patriots 12 Wins
8 Colts 10 Wins


9 Wins
9) 49ers 9 Wins
10) Dolphins 9 Wins
11) Cardinals 13 Wins


8 Wins
12) Falcons 4 Wins
13) Panthers 6 Wins
14) Chiefs 9 Wins
15) Steelers 10 Wins
16) Chargers 10 Wins
17) Bengals 9 Wins


7 Wins
18) Titans 4 Wins
19) Bears 6 Wins
20) Cowboys 12 Wins
21) Jets 2 Wins
22) Bills 10 Wins


6 Wins
23) Texans 8 Wins
24) Vikings 6 Wins
25) Ravens 10 Wins


5 Wins
26) Rams 5 Wins
27) Redskins 6 Wins
28) Giants 7 Wins
29) Jaguars 2 Wins


4 Wins
30) Browns 9 Wins
31) Buccaneers 3 Wins


3 Wins
32) Raiders 1 Win



Analysis of my own predictions so far:

Correct Win Total = 6 (18.75%)
± 1 Game = 8 (25%)
± 2 Games = 7 (21.875%)
± 3 Games = 3 (9.375%)
± 4 Games = 3 (9.375%)
± 5 or more Games = 5 (15.625%)

I would consider the teams that I missed by 5+ to be the ones I missed badly so far, those teams are:

Seahawks, Saints, Cowboys, Jets, Browns.

I expect all those teams to fall closer to my predictions by the end of the season compared to their current projections.

So over 65% of my predictions are currently on pace to be within 2 games. I expect my numbers to improve across the board by the end of the season :les:

 

[LoneHawkFan]

Are you by chance in Oklahoma 'Dub? You need to hook a brudder up, if so. I could use some of that mind bender you must have.

That being said...good job w the numbers.

 

[dunceface]

Me trying to read through Tokadub's analysis


Me reading Tokadub's responses to his analysis


Hang in there buddy you're doing some kind of good for somebody probably :th2thumbs:

 

[CANHawk]

I'm reading all Dub's posts in a Professor Frink voice from now on.

GLAYVIN!

 

[LawlessHawk]

:229031_confused2:

:dummy:

:229031_shrug:

:escape:

 

[byau]

Me reading Tokadub's responses to his analysis

Ha ha .. funny.

And I was thinking the same thing... there's his initial post, and his responses to the responses. Good reading.

Hang in there buddy you're doing some kind of good for somebody probably :th2thumbs:

Seriously.. commitment and persistence to a vision, that's respectable.

GO DUB!

 

[byau]

I'm reading all Dub's posts in a Professor Frink voice from now on.

GLAYVIN!

I've found them quite interesting reading them in Gru's voice

 

[dunceface]

I'm reading all Dub's posts in a Professor Frink voice from now on.

GLAYVIN!

I've found them quite interesting reading them in Gru's voice

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

Appreciate your efforts Toker......er, Tokadub.

One quick comment. I see you are spot on with the Lions, so far. They are notorious for 2nd half collapses and until they don't, I ain't buyin' them.

 

[LickMyNuts]

I think I've figured out the secret formula:

Bad predictions of wins after week one + Bad predictions after a few more weeks - Any intelligence whatsoever + A couple - A few + 14 beers = TOTAL WINS

When the NFL and or Vegas finds out what you've done it will be a bidding war for your services. Congrats.

 

[CANHawk]

I think I've figured out the secret formula:

Bad predictions of wins after week one + Bad predictions after a few more weeks - Any intelligence whatsoever + A couple - A few + 14 beers = TOTAL WINS

When the NFL and or Vegas finds out what you've done it will be a bidding war for your services. Congrats.

It's no dumber than the formula for comp picks......