Will Pete Carroll pull off the trade for Sam Darnold

[BASF]

Nice way to quote something I didn’t say Or even imply. “I don’t know“ mean “I don’t know.“

what I DO know is that every year or two I would have drafted a later round QB to take a chance on. I absolutely would have done that this year. iF you are going to give up a year you play a rookie or young QB that year to see what you have and give them experience. You don’t play a 30 year old DUI getting no future overpaid Geno Smit’s.

Has anyone attached to the Seahawks announced Geno Smith as the starter? The competition is crucial in that the vets all respect Smith and want him to get his shot, but you can be certain that the front office wants Lock to win the competition fair and square in front of those veterans so they can go with the youth.

 

[scutterhawk]

Absolutely. Russell Wilson was one of the most important parts of our 2013 team. Sure, there are several QB's that could have won, but the number is far fewer than people realize. There is a lot of revisionist history going on about Russell Wilson and his play/contribution to the Super Bowl run. He was still one of the most important aspects of that team.

There is als cognitive dissonance going on around here about just needing a game manager/mediocre QB and that Pete's system will take care of everything -- because look at 2013. A overwhelming majority of the teams since 2010 that have made the Super Bowl had elite or very good QB play -- ourselves included.

And we'd likely have won '49' if we'd have had Mr. Come-back ->Tom Brady, but alas, it wasn't meant to be.

 

[BlueTalon]

Nice way to quote something I didn’t say Or even imply. “I don’t know“ mean “I don’t know.“

what I DO know is that every year or two I would have drafted a later round QB to take a chance on. I absolutely would have done that this year. iF you are going to give up a year you play a rookie or young QB that year to see what you have and give them experience. You don’t play a 30 year old DUI getting no future overpaid Geno Smit’s.

What you actually said was, "I would have grabbed Baker but there were plenty of experienced QBs that also could have been signed that were better than the two we have." Hence the quoted "experienced" & "better" in my previous post.

We can agree that other QBs may be more experienced, but I don't agree they're necessarily better. Or that they're better enough to justify what it would have cost to get them. Or that there were "plenty" of them that we were in a position to sign.

Besides, what you're advocating the Seahawks do is essentially exactly what they are doing this year with Lock. Except instead of getting him with a late round draft pick, we got him in the trade. And the Seahawks consider him to be better than any of the QBs to come out in this year's draft, so we're ahead of the game.

 

[DarkVictory23]

Lets put this in perspective, this was his second year, you're comparing him to QB legends still in their prime. Look what he did the following 2 years. Also compare them to Brady & Rodgers.

Wilson Seahawks 3rd down conversions
2013 - 18th
2014 - 8th
2015 - 3rd

Brady Patriots 3rd down conversions
2013 - 12th
2014 - 4th
2015 - 15th

Rodgers Packers 3rd down conversion
2013 - 9th
2014 - 3rd
2015 - 27th

You're really down playing Wilson 2013 year.

Team went 13-3, three of the losses Seahawks were either tied or ahead in the 4th quarter.
Wilson had 4 game winning drives, 5 if you include the 49ers championship game. We dont win a SB without him, probably miss the playoffs too. Just cherry picking the 3rd downs.

Yeah, I compared him in his second year to legends in their prime because... that's what we were talking about?

And I'm not down playing what he did or 'cherry picking' 3rd down. 3rd down with distance is THE passing situation. It's the time of the game when you must rely on your QB actually using his arm and the defense knows it. And that's when Wilson faltered.

You, on the other hand, cherry picked the Seahawks 3rd down conversions in every situation, instead of Russ's performance in 3rd and distance situations, but that's kind of beside the point, isn't it? We're supposed to be talking about what Russ did for the Super Bowl teams, not how well the Seahawks did overall. They went to the Super Bowl... we already know they were good.

But, sure, let's compare the two Super Bowl QBs from 2014: Russ's passer rating in 3rd and mid and 3rd and longer as I defined previously was 72.9 and 76.3 respectively. He got a little worse on the mid-range, a little better on the longer but was still pretty middling overall.

Brady was 101.7 and 99.2.

In all, on 3rd and long, Russ was twice as likely to throw an interception as he was a touchdown. Brady, in comparison, threw 3 times as many TDs as INTs in the same situation.

Again, I'm comparing Super Bowl years because that's what the conversation was about. Saying Russ did better in seasons when the 'Hawks did worse doesn't really mean much.


Also, just to point out: Game winning drives are great. They are impressive and speak to Russ's ability to perform under pressure. But when I say Russ's Seahawks offense was less than field goal better than average, that INCLUDES all the points scored in his final game winning drives, too. Our defense, on the other hand, was more than a touchdown better than average.

So Russ was put in a situation where he could score a whole touchdown less than most other teams and outscore his opponents, so why does he need so many fourth quarter game winning drives?

 

[rcaido]

Yeah, I compared him in his second year to legends in their prime because... that's what we were talking about?

And I'm not down playing what he did or 'cherry picking' 3rd down. 3rd down with distance is THE passing situation. It's the time of the game when you must rely on your QB actually using his arm and the defense knows it. And that's when Wilson faltered.

You, on the other hand, cherry picked the Seahawks 3rd down conversions in every situation, instead of Russ's performance in 3rd and distance situations, but that's kind of beside the point, isn't it? We're supposed to be talking about what Russ did for the Super Bowl teams, not how well the Seahawks did overall. They went to the Super Bowl... we already know they were good.

But, sure, let's compare the two Super Bowl QBs from 2014: Russ's passer rating in 3rd and mid and 3rd and longer as I defined previously was 72.9 and 76.3 respectively. He got a little worse on the mid-range, a little better on the longer but was still pretty middling overall.

Brady was 101.7 and 99.2.

In all, on 3rd and long, Russ was twice as likely to throw an interception as he was a touchdown. Brady, in comparison, threw 3 times as many TDs as INTs in the same situation.

Again, I'm comparing Super Bowl years because that's what the conversation was about. Saying Russ did better in seasons when the 'Hawks did worse doesn't really mean much.


Also, just to point out: Game winning drives are great. They are impressive and speak to Russ's ability to perform under pressure. But when I say Russ's Seahawks offense was less than field goal better than average, that INCLUDES all the points scored in his final game winning drives, too. Our defense, on the other hand, was more than a touchdown better than average.

So Russ was put in a situation where he could score a whole touchdown less than most other teams and outscore his opponents, so why does he need so many fourth quarter game winning drives?

Not sure why you want to bring up ratings on 3rd down, again you're just cherry picking 3rd downs. You make it seem like Defense won all the games, despite the Seahawks offense was ranked 8th in scoring. Lets put this in perspective again. The Patriots in 2013 were 2nd in scoring averaging 27.1 & second in plays throughout the year w/ 1138 plays. Seahawks average scoring 26.1(8th) and 973 plays (28th). That is is some crazy efficiency to score that many points w almost 3 games worth of plays less then other teams. If the Seahawks were a low ranking scoring then i can see your point, Wilson has always put up top 10 offense majority his career.

I also double checked the ratings for Brady in 2013, his rating on 3rd downs was 83.6 & Wilson had a 90.0 . I decided to check Wilson's other 3rd down stats for 2013...

Wilson on 3rd down
1-3yrds/ 124.1 Rating Second best in the NFL, weird that you choose not to put that in your 3rd down stats.
4-7yrds/ 90.7 Rating, That's better than Manning (86.7), Newton (82.0)Rogers(81.4) Rapeberger(75.9), Luck (75.4), Brady (72.8)

Wilson true struggle was 8-10yrds, which he had a very poor 49.5 Rating & 11+yrds 85.1. I tried looking at the first down conversion on these but it didn't show up on the stat sheets for 2013. Im curious to see the actual results if the majority of qb converted the first down or not. The reason for this is that Geno had 100+ rating, while completing almost 70% his passes on 3rd down but he had one of the lowest 3rd down conversion percentage 31% the only other player lower was Drew Lock 29%.

Again all of these 3rd down stats are situational and can be misleading. People say Wilson is terrible in 3rd down but he was the second best 3rd down rating in 2015, then not good 2016-2017, and then he was ranked #1 in the NFL 2018.

 

[pittpnthrs]

Not sure why you want to bring up ratings on 3rd down, again you're just cherry picking 3rd downs. You make it seem like Defense won all the games, despite the Seahawks offense was ranked 8th in scoring. Lets put this in perspective again. The Patriots in 2013 were 2nd in scoring averaging 27.1 & second in plays throughout the year w/ 1138 plays. Seahawks average scoring 26.1(8th) and 973 plays (28th). That is is some crazy efficiency to score that many points w almost 3 games worth of plays less then other teams. If the Seahawks were a low ranking scoring then i can see your point, Wilson has always put up top 10 offense majority his career.

I also double checked the ratings for Brady in 2013, his rating on 3rd downs was 83.6 & Wilson had a 90.0 . I decided to check Wilson's other 3rd down stats for 2013...

Wilson on 3rd down
1-3yrds/ 124.1 Rating Second best in the NFL, weird that you choose not to put that in your 3rd down stats.
4-7yrds/ 90.7 Rating, That's better than Manning (86.7), Newton (82.0)Rogers(81.4) Rapeberger(75.9), Luck (75.4), Brady (72.8)

Wilson true struggle was 8-10yrds, which he had a very poor 49.5 Rating & 11+yrds 85.1. I tried looking at the first down conversion on these but it didn't show up on the stat sheets for 2013. Im curious to see the actual results if the majority of qb converted the first down or not. The reason for this is that Geno had 100+ rating, while completing almost 70% his passes on 3rd down but he had one of the lowest 3rd down conversion percentage 31% the only other player lower was Drew Lock 29%.

Again all of these 3rd down stats are situational and can be misleading. People say Wilson is terrible in 3rd down but he was the second best 3rd down rating in 2015, then not good 2016-2017, and then he was ranked #1 in the NFL 2018.

Well that pretty much put the ribbon on that myth.

 

[DarkVictory23]

Wilson on 3rd down
1-3yrds/ 124.1 Rating Second best in the NFL, weird that you choose not to put that in your 3rd down stats.

Me, in the post you are replying to: "3rd down with distance is THE passing situation. It's the time of the game when you must rely on your QB actually using his arm and the defense knows it. And that's when Wilson faltered."

Weird that I explained the reasoning and why I focused on those particular plays--more than once--and yet, somehow, you still express 'surprise' that I didn't focus on OTHER plays.


Beyond that, you seem to be getting your stats from a completely different place than I am so I don't even know how to continue this discussion since we aren't coming from a common point of reference. My stats are coming from Pro-Football-Reference.

 

[rcaido]

I screen shot the comparison to Brady & Wilson.

Wilson 2013


Brady 2013

Me, in the post you are replying to: "3rd down with distance is THE passing situation. It's the time of the game when you must rely on your QB actually using his arm and the defense knows it. And that's when Wilson faltered."

Weird that I explained the reasoning and why I focused on those particular plays--more than once--and yet, somehow, you still express 'surprise' that I didn't focus on OTHER plays.


Beyond that, you seem to be getting your stats from a completely different place than I am so I don't even know how to continue this discussion since we aren't coming from a common point of reference. My stats are coming from Pro-Football-Reference.

What you're doing is cherry picking on 3rd downs. If you're going to show stats, you need to provide all of the 3rd down situations. I provided the good, bad, and ugly. You just want to paint Wilson as a non factor by showing his poor passer rating on 3rd and long and not provide the passing short 3rd downs because that fits your narrative when it comes to passer ratings...Wilson is one of the best in that situation.

Like i mention before, Geno Smith had amazing 3rd down rating 100+ w/ a very high percentage in completion w/ almost 70% which is very misleading. His first down conversion rate was 31%, only Drew Lock was worse w/ 29% rating in the whole nfl.

I decided to check https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ your stat site to see if they have the first down on 3rd down conversion and luckily they do for the 2013 season.

I decided compare Wilson to some of the elite QBs/HOF in 2013.

3rd Down 4-6yrds

Wilson 26/51 51%
Brady 34/65 52%
Manning 36/66 54.5%
Rodgers 18/29 62%
Brees 37/56 66%

Brees was the dominate QB here, but Wilson was only 1 to 3% behind Brady & Manning. That's just a difference of 2 first downs

3rd down 7-9yrds

Wilson 11/24 45.8%
Rodgers 5/17 29.4%
Brees 13/35 37%
Brady 13/34 38.2%
Manning 17/41 41.4%

This is pretty interesting in that Wilson actually beat out all these great QBs. How about that.

3rd down 10+ yards

Wilson 9/42 21.4%
Brady 7/44 15.9%
Rodgers 5/22 22%
Brees 12/49 24.4%
Manning 12/34 35%

Manning wins it but the rest are very compressed. Just 1 first down difference changes the order except for Brady. Looking back at the stats, Brady actually has the least amount success on 3rd downs compared to these other 5 qbs. Yet he is the GOAT.

We didn't even factor Wilson's running compared to these statue QBs. We can't include it because QBs are only measured in throwing the ball. Also 5 game winning drives is not important because of strong defense. Just going by passing Wilson was able to hang w/ the big boy HOFs and actually had better stats then them in different scenarios. Not too bad for a game manager who had a small importance in contributing to a super bowl.