Scottemojo":1iyvo40c said:
Wilson is going to get overpaid. It will cause problems with depth and keeping some core guys, of that I have no doubt. But I also have no doubt letting him go would be stupid.
Interesting. I am interested to know your thought process on why you think Wilson will be overpaid. I'm sure you have a good reason. That said, I strongly disagree. Here is my thought process:
As I explained in a previous post, Wilson's value above replacement will easily exceed his percentage of his team's cap commitment. So strictly in a moneyball "wins per dollar" approach, Wilson is a bargain even on a huge deal. He's like a Mike Trout type asset. It's almost impossible to overpay the guy from a moneyball perspective. If Seattle is a 12-4 team with Wilson, and you take that $22-$24 million and give it to say, the next Bennett, Avril, and Wright instead, they probably aren't a 12-4 team anymore.
And this assumes that you can save all that money, which is unrealistic. If Tjack got us to 10+ wins every year, you wouldn't be keeping him every year at a buck twenty five. Instead, he'd be the new Alex Smith or Andy Dalton at the negotiating table. You've said yourself, this is pretty much the last thing any franchise wants.
You can't run a contending team with a perennial $1 million salary QB. You just can't. The economic forces of the NFL wouldn't allow it, unless you did nothing but play QBs on rookie deals every four or five years, and that's not a recipe for success.
True, Wilson will make more money than Brady and Manning, but if Brady and Manning were also 26 years old, this would not be the case.
As you said so well, there are basically two QBs in the NFL with (I would say somewhat arguably) more value than Wilson going forward. Luck and Rodgers. Whatever Wilson gets this offseason, Luck is going to get more in 2016. Whatever Wilson gets this offseason, Rodgers will get more the next time he signs an extension. It's true, for one year, Wilson will be less of a bargain than Luck. And for a few years, he will be less of a bargain than Rodgers. But being less than the biggest bargain in the sport does not mean you are overpaid.