Would we really let Sherman......

[themunn]

Pete Carroll's system can make many CBs succeed. It's why so many corners have looked good ever since he started coaching here.

That'll be why our pass defense finished 27th in 2010, and averaged over 280 yards allowed per game until Trufant and Thurmond got injured and Sherman took over in 2011 (and the only reason that number is anywhere near below 300 is because we got to face 5 YPA Alex Smith in the opener)?

Once Sherman became a starter we averaged just 210 yards per game. Same season. I'm sure Carroll's system helps Sherman and ET out, but let's not kid on we could plug any old guy in there and get the same results


Also, on an unrelated note - Sherman playing the left side means either teams play their best receiver on the other side and have to curtail half of their playbook, but more importantly, the majority of QBs are right handed, and their first look is more often than not going to be to Sherman's side, and throwing left is a more difficult throw. It hamstrings opposing QBs immediately, especially given that there are only a few legit #1 receivers in the league worthy of having someone follow them

 

[onanygivensunday]

Pete and his staff have successfully coached up a good number of DBs here on his "system"... he's said so on occasion... so I have come to believe Pete's "system" is a combination of he and his staff teaching certain techniques/skills to his DBs that allow his "scheme" to work effectively.

Watching the secondary play in both the NFCCG and the SB was a pure joy. They individually worked and flowed so well as a group. It was a thing of beauty on some plays. Kam's INT short of Crabtree was perfection. How they all played in the SB against Welker and co. in the SB was perfection as well.

 

[rain7]

#2. Nnamdi and Sherman are absolutely nothing alike. .

How are they not alike? Taller, slow-ish, long armed press corners with good technique.

Knock, knock, knock...are you awake? B-R-A-I-N-S that quickly diagnose a play, the adept ability to locate the ball in flight and I dare say Sherm has the best hands of any corner in the league. Yeah, they are SO similar.

You guys are funny... nnamdi (in his prime) is probably THE most similar to Sherman of the big name cbs over the past couple of decades.

He certainly isnt a sanders, woodson or green clone. The poster said they were *nothing* alike.

 

[TJH]

This is why I have actually been arguing we use Sherman for a high 1st to get Evans in this years draft. In my opinion we have Sherman for 2 more years at most, one of them franchised. I've always thought PCJS would much rather spend top dollar on defensive line over corner. Trading him now would maximize his value to us.

 

[rain7]

Also, just because John might be setting the table to sign Sherman, doesnt mean sherman is on board with the number he has penciled in. Takes two to tango.

Do you think ita outside the realm of possibility that sherm could want 14-15 mill a year? One bat shit crazy team paid 16 mill to Revis last year.

 

[TJH]

Also, just because John might be setting the table to sign Sherman, doesnt mean sherman is on board with the number he has penciled in. Takes two to tango.

Do you think ita outside the realm of possibility that sherm could want 14-15 mill a year? One bat shit crazy team paid 16 mill to Revis last year.

No I think it's absolutely what he is going to want. He has spent the last two years being obsessed with being the top corner. He won't take a dime less than anyone else, not because he needs the money, but because of his ego.

 

[brimsalabim]

After watching things unfold this off-season I believe this FO is prepared to let every single player on the team walk.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

um..........ok

 

[chrispy]

It makes sense for Sherm to sign a deal for 4 yrs at 11 mil per yr. If he doesn't he'll end up making less with no guarantee for injury.

He'll make 1.4 mil this yr (2014)
If franchised in 2015 would pay (estimated NFL.com) 11 mil
If franchised in 2016 would pay (add 20%) 13.3 mil
If franchised in 2017 would pay (add 20%) 15 mil

That's a total of 40.7 mil or 10.2 mil/yr over 4 years. The interesting aspect is that the rise in cap over that period will practically guarantee that franchising players multiple years becomes more cap friendly.

Of course we don't expect the above to happen. But the fact that the Seahawks hold this option should be the starting point for contract negotiation. In this scenario, there's no guarantee for injury. If Sherm could make more money, and get a guarantee for longevity and injury, he's smart enough to do that. I'm sure he wants to be the highest paid corner in the game. However, if that's his only argument, he'll end up making even less. The FO didn't make the rules but, in this case, they hold all the cards. I'm sure they'll negotiate a longterm deal. If I were to predict, I'd say each side will "give" some but the fall-back position for the Hawks will always be the above scenario. Shem can only threaten to hold-out to push a move. They could push for 5 years and add on a couple mil/yr which could be advantageous for both sides. However it turns out, it will start with the above numbers.

 

[edogg23]

What corner has Pete and JS put out on the field that wasn't good?
I love Sherman he is probably one of my favorite players, but there is no way you go over 10+ million or so on a position you can get 85% of the same performance from for 1/8 the price. They have proven they can produce good corners consistently.

 

[Largent80]

See Revis for a comparison. He got a gigantic contract and is now pogo-sticking around the league.

 

[HawkFan72]

Pete Carroll's system can make many CBs succeed. It's why so many corners have looked good ever since he started coaching here.

That'll be why our pass defense finished 27th in 2010, and averaged over 280 yards allowed per game until Trufant and Thurmond got injured and Sherman took over in 2011 (and the only reason that number is anywhere near below 300 is because we got to face 5 YPA Alex Smith in the opener)?

Once Sherman became a starter we averaged just 210 yards per game. Same season. I'm sure Carroll's system helps Sherman and ET out, but let's not kid on we could plug any old guy in there and get the same results


Also, on an unrelated note - Sherman playing the left side means either teams play their best receiver on the other side and have to curtail half of their playbook, but more importantly, the majority of QBs are right handed, and their first look is more often than not going to be to Sherman's side, and throwing left is a more difficult throw. It hamstrings opposing QBs immediately, especially given that there are only a few legit #1 receivers in the league worthy of having someone follow them

I have said multiple times in this thread that while Carroll's system allows DBs to succeed, Sherman is a special talent that should be retained. He really is the best CB in the game, regardless of system.

I don't think we'd have the same success if we just "plug any old guy in there" and I never said that. There would be a drop off if we let Sherman go.

 

[jblaze]

I think Sherman will be extended, however, there is something to be said for the rumor that's been floating around for a while and that is:

Perhaps we let Sherman play out his rookie contract this year, franchise him next year and let him walk in 2016. At that point you would have gotten the best CB in the game for 4 years at an average of <3m a year. (3 years X 700k + 1 year at franchise 9m). Franchising him would actually be less than paying him on a contract because he's going to command top CB in history money (11-13m/yr).

At that point you've probably gotten the best years out of him and he's still highly motivated because he hasn't gotten that big contract yet. Also Pete, being a previous DB coach, feels he can pick CB's off of the trees and coach them up and make them pro-bowlers and he has a point. The way they've drafted late, coached/mentored and gotten these guys to perform is amazing. However, there is certainly something to be said for this being a system or scheme reliant strategy instead of individually great and talented players. Another point is that the safeties and the Cover 1/3 allow these CB's to be as aggressive and take as many chances as they do, thus it's more of a product of great safety play than great CB play.

I think there's a lot of credence to this argument. Thomas isn't going anywhere and neither is Kam. How are you going to pay big money to 3/4 of your secondary? It would gouge your defensive cap. Don't forget we're going to need to sign our LB's. Wagner, Wright and Smith are all going to need to be paid.

In the end though, I think Sherman gets his extension and is paid the most out of any CB ever in guaranteed money. The reason is because I think JS/PC reward their players and do things the right way instead of being shrewd and cutthroat.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I think Sherman will be extended, however, there is something to be said for the rumor that's been floating around for a while and that is:

Perhaps we let Sherman play out his rookie contract this year, franchise him next year and let him walk in 2016. At that point you would have gotten the best CB in the game for 4 years at an average of <3m a year. (3 years X 700k + 1 year at franchise 9m). Franchising him would actually be less than paying him on a contract because he's going to command top CB in history money (11-13m/yr).
.

Franchising Sherm would create a huge cap hit and might put a big dent in trying to keep our core players together.

Remember, it's more than just the big 3 we have to try and resign next year. Guys like Okung, Avril, Lynch, Mebane, Wagner.............all are coming up for extensions in the next two years.

Franchising Sherm next year, or in 2016 means his ENTIRE 15-16M counts against the cap for that year, instead of a pro-rated backloaded contract where it'd probably only be 7-8M the first couple of years. PLUS, it'd really piss him off...........and as we've found out, DON'T piss Sherm off.

 

[jblaze]

I think Sherman will be extended, however, there is something to be said for the rumor that's been floating around for a while and that is:

Perhaps we let Sherman play out his rookie contract this year, franchise him next year and let him walk in 2016. At that point you would have gotten the best CB in the game for 4 years at an average of <3m a year. (3 years X 700k + 1 year at franchise 9m). Franchising him would actually be less than paying him on a contract because he's going to command top CB in history money (11-13m/yr).
.

Franchising Sherm would create a huge cap hit and might put a big dent in trying to keep our core players together.

Remember, it's more than just the big 3 we have to try and resign next year. Guys like Okung, Avril, Lynch, Mebane, Wagner.............all are coming up for extensions in the next two years.

Franchising Sherm next year, or in 2016 means his ENTIRE 15-16M counts against the cap for that year, instead of a pro-rated backloaded contract where it'd probably only be 7-8M the first couple of years. PLUS, it'd really piss him off...........and as we've found out, DON'T piss Sherm off.

That's precisely my point, with RW, Okung and others getting big contracts next offseason and having relatively low year 1 cap hits, you have money to assign to a big cap hit like a franchise tag. Subsequent years, not so much once the cap hit starts ramping up but next year will probably be the last year with low(ish) cap hits for our stars.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I think Sherman will be extended, however, there is something to be said for the rumor that's been floating around for a while and that is:

Perhaps we let Sherman play out his rookie contract this year, franchise him next year and let him walk in 2016. At that point you would have gotten the best CB in the game for 4 years at an average of <3m a year. (3 years X 700k + 1 year at franchise 9m). Franchising him would actually be less than paying him on a contract because he's going to command top CB in history money (11-13m/yr).
.

Franchising Sherm would create a huge cap hit and might put a big dent in trying to keep our core players together.

Remember, it's more than just the big 3 we have to try and resign next year. Guys like Okung, Avril, Lynch, Mebane, Wagner.............all are coming up for extensions in the next two years.

Franchising Sherm next year, or in 2016 means his ENTIRE 15-16M counts against the cap for that year, instead of a pro-rated backloaded contract where it'd probably only be 7-8M the first couple of years. PLUS, it'd really piss him off...........and as we've found out, DON'T piss Sherm off.

That's precisely my point, with RW, Okung and others getting big contracts next offseason and having relatively low year 1 cap hits, you have money to assign to a big cap hit like a franchise tag. Subsequent years, not so much once the cap hit starts ramping up but next year will probably be the last year with low(ish) cap hits for our stars.

I'm not saying you're wrong. We might fit Sherm in just fine with the cap increase next year if we franchise him. I'm just saying I'd prefer to lock him up on a long term deal over franchising because it gives us more cap space to sign other key players.........AND it wouldn't create a tenuous situation with Sherm.

 

[jblaze]

Oh I completely agree. I think we should and will extend Sherman. Now that Melton is with Dallas and Allen will likely sign with Seattle, we have plenty of room to extend both Thomas and Sherman and then rely on the draft for OL and WR's.

I'm just stating an opinion for devil's advocates sake. It makes sense in some ways but I don't think PCJS are that ruthless and I think they're high on respect for players and paying those internal home grown products who've produced.

 

[formido]

You don't let your All-Pros walk, at least not until we have more All-Pros than we have now. Pete also has a thing for going above and beyond to reward contributors that deserve it. Pete wants to reward the All-Pros that he drafted and that got us where we are, I think.

The year Revis got hurt, did you know the Jets still only allowed an average passer rating of 78 per game? That was good enough for 6th in the NFL. The year before, they allowed 70.

Sherman began starting the middle of his rookie year. In the year and a half before, Seattle allowed an average passer rating per game of 90. As soon as Sherman came in, that dropped to 70, and has remained at least that low ever since.

Part of being the best coach in the game is recognizing the players with that Hall of Fame potential. It usually doesn't work out. When you sift through and find the ones that have it and you coach them up, put them in a system to dominate, and it works, you don't toss them on the scrap heap.

Of course, if we did lose Sherman, I would be confident in Pete coming up with something. We could lose anyone, even Earl Thomas. Carroll had one of the top 5 secondaries in NFL history at Minnesota in the late 80s, and he didn't have any of the players he has now. The only constant is Pete. But losing Sherman would hurt our odds in the short term more than anything we could get in return for letting it happen.

 

[scutterhawk]

Dunno, something tells me that there is something to what Hall was saying. The namndi asomugha example makes me think twice.

Put another way, if we had two maxwells, do we really think things would fall apart? Earl seems like the true centerpiece to this defense. Also sems suspicious that we turned a cfl player into a probowler and two late round picks into probowlers as well, scheme seems like a big part of it.

That's kind of silly thinking IMHO, as you can't take just anybody in the Draft, and turn him into a fantastic Corner with just Coaching alone.
Sherman is intelligent, he studies and understands exactly how to play not only each and every one of the Receivers that he covers, but the Quarterbacks that are throwing to them.
That tipped ball that was meant for Crabtree wasn't an accident, as Kaepernick was counting on either getting a PI, or Crabtree outplaying Sherman for the ball.
Both Kaepernick AND Crabtree were outsmarted, and outplayed by RS, and I don't suspect that just any old somebody Corner (Pete Carroll trained or otherwise) ,would have played on that pass any better than Richard Sherman did.
Quarterbacks usually avoid Sherman's side of the field, because they know he is more than capable of reading, and breaking on the routes that the Receivers are running.
Quarterbacks avoided throwing to his side of the field more than any other Corner in the League, and yet, Sherman had how many interceptions last Season?
Maxwell's side of the field saw a lot more action because Quarterbacks were leery about throwing much of anything in the middle, or down the Right side of the field.
Hell, even the vaunted Peyton Manning was funneled to throwing almost everything short to keep from getting picked off.

 

[kearly]

As far as Lynch, I hit on this in another thread, and it really isn't like me to not be forward-thinking all the time, but I can't see a scenario where Lynch gets most of the touches this season, plays well, and then isn't with the team in 2015. I think the only way he isn't with us is he hits the major wall this season, or is injured and Michael/Turbin totally go off in that span. Since we rely so heavily on the power running game, I can't see us going into a season as a contender with a question mark at tailback.

Lynch's base salary next season is $7.5 million. And IMO, we are more than fine at tailback without Lynch. Michael is going to be a star if healthy, and Ware is already a poor man's Lynch. Plus, they can just draft a stud in round 2 or 3 if need be. $7.5 million is a lot of dough for a RB for a team that desperately needs cash. Even a team like Seattle. And remember, Seattle has a history of letting guys go a year early.

I looked ahead to next season and there's really only two ways the team can find the money to pay Wilson+Earl+Sherm. Either cut/trade Lynch or let Avril walk and replace him with a guy who's dirt cheap like Mayowa. Both are viable options, but I would much rather trust Michael than trust Mayowa. I think it says a lot that Seattle kept Ware on the 53 man roster all year too.

They have the option to keep Lynch and still work things out. Maybe they will. They have some options, my gut says this is Lynch's last hurrah in Seattle though.