The "what I actually think will happen" mock draft

kearly · Mar 24, 2016

This isn't based on my own preferences or grades, but an illustration of what I think the Seahawks would consider to be their ideal draft. If everything broke Seattle's way, within the realm of plausibility, the 2016 Seahawks draft might play out like such:

First round. Seattle trades down. In the previous four drafts, Seattle has a total of four trade-downs made before making their first pick. They also wanted to trade down before picking in 2011 but couldn't find a buyer. In this example I'll suppose that Seattle trades down to #31 with Denver who selects Germain Ifedi, a player they have been linked to as a RT/LG option. Seattle gains Denver's early 5th rounder plus a 7th (Denver doesn't have a 4th rounder). Denver starts the draft with 10 picks and would probably be fine with this deal.

Second round. Seattle trades UP. Seattle packages their second round pick (#56) and their original third round pick (#90) to move up to #42. I have no idea if Tampa would do the deal or not, I just picked them since their 42nd overall pick matches the trade chart exactly.

Normally, I don't like including trades in mock drafts since, you know, it comes across as rosterbation. But in this case, I felt like Seattle would want to find a way to justify moving up in round two while keeping a high draft pick count. Doing so would require Seattle to make two deals.

Seahawks picks after trades:

1st round (#31): DT Jonathan Bullard
2nd round (#42): C Ryan Kelly
3rd round (#97): DT Javon Hargrave
4th round (#124): G Connor McGovern
5th round (#144): RB Tyler Ervin
5th round (#171): T Brandon Shell
6th round (#215): Some guy who you've never heard of who is an awesome athlete
7th round (#225): Some guy who you've never heard of who is an awesome athlete
7th round (#228): Some guy who you've never heard of who is an awesome athlete
7th round (#247): Some guy who you've never heard of who is an awesome athlete

The more I study this draft, the more I think Seattle is going to have to wait a year before addressing left tackle. I buy into Shon Coleman, but his SPARQ rating is surprisingly awful and he has medical concerns. Germain Ifedi looks like a good prospect, but he's more of a RT/LG type than a LT. Jack Conklin has a decent SPARQ score and he has a decent shot to hold up at LT, but he'll probably be long gone before #26. Cody Whitehair has short arms.

So if we accept that LT isn't something that Seattle can realistically address in this draft while staying true to their belief in SPARQ, then what else is left for draft priorities? The remaining priorities are: center, left guard, right tackle, interior pass rush, run stuffing DT, and running back.

1st round: DT Jonathan Bullard.

Truthfully I have some mixed feelings on this... I think Bullard is closer to Jason Jones than Michael Bennett. That said, Bullard plays with a chip on his shoulder and is a monster athlete, he checks the two biggest boxes for a Seahawks player and he also fits arguably Seattle's biggest need. Seattle trades down and expands their draft pool which makes the next move easier to swallow.

2nd round: C Ryan Kelly

Kelly has been called the "heart and soul" of Alabama's offense. Seattle wants to build a new OL from scratch, so it makes sense to kick things off with the draft's best center.

Not only is Kelly the best center in the draft by a good margin, he also has the best SPARQ score of all the viable center prospects. The more I think about it, the more I see Kelly as a player that Seattle simply has to walk out of this draft with. It's entirely possible that they take Kelly with their first round pick if Bullard were not available.

Seattle usually has to feel very impassioned about a player to move up, but as we saw last year, Seattle isn't afraid to spend big to move up for a guy they feel that they have to have.

3rd round: DT Javon Hargrave

From here on out the talent pool hits a plateau. Seattle might draft several other players here since their talent level is pretty close, but I have them taking Hargrave here since he's the best value of any realistic option that's left which fits a need.

Hargrave is a small school player who fits a very similar "tweener" profile to Brandon Mebane back in 2007. More of a "game wrecker" than a sack artist or space eater. Hargrave is simply a disruptive player who could probably adapt to the 1-tech job with a modest weight gain. Even if he is only Mebane-lite, you have to feel great about that kind of value at the end of round 3.

4th round: G Connor McGovern

McGovern is a very obvious Seahawks target for two reasons. The first is that he could hypothetically play all five positions on the OL, giving Seattle the kind of versatility they covet in spades. The second is that he ranks #1 among all offensive lineman in SPARQ. Now granted, this offensive line class is not very athletic and McGovern's SPARQ score would have only ranked 15th among offensive lineman in the draft before this one. Overall, his draft profile is strikingly similar to last year's late 4th round pick, Mark Glowinsky.

Of all the players in the entire draft, McGovern feels the most destined to be a Seahawk.

5th round: RB Tyler Ervin

Ervin's explosiveness and utility is strikingly similar to Tyler Lockett, except Ervin plays RB. Seattle has already shown interest in Ervin which makes sense. Among the fastest and most explosive RBs in this draft, Ervin is the most intriguing of that sub-group as an NFL prospect. You might only be able to get 100 touches a year out of him, but Ervin can turn those touches into game breaking plays and few coaches value the big play more than Pete Carroll (just ask Jermaine Kearse).

Seattle's new uber-athletic ZBS OL seems to gel best with hyper-quick "mighty-mite" RBs like Thomas Rawls. It's worth noting that Seattle briefly courted Lance Dunbar in free agency, a similar player to Tyler Ervin.

If Ervin doesn't last this long, keep an eye on Marshaun Coprich and Keith Marshall.

5th round: T Brandon Shell

Shell may not last this long on account of his NFL bloodlines, his #2 SPARQ score among offensive tackles or that he played in the SEC. But if he is there, he gives Seattle nice insurance at RT or LG, basically fulfilling the Alvin Bailey role. If Webb or Britt struggle badly, Shell could probably step in on day one if needed and provide replacement level performance. Given his tools, bloodlines, and experience, his upside is comparable to James Carpenter.

Rounds 6-7.

At this point I could name some guys like Vernon Adams, Michael Thomas, Charone Peak or Travis Feeney, but Seattle's past history shows that they tend to draft off the radar in rounds 6 and 7.

With these last four picks, I expect Seattle to add at least one corner, probably a safety, perhaps a WR if the right one is available, and a fast linebacker candidate. A backup QB might be in play as well.

McGruff · Mar 24, 2016

I'd be happy with that. Not sure about Ervin yet, but just having someone to take Lockett off of kickoffs would be worth it to me.

I also think She'll goes earlier, but probably not by much.

So you've got high impact, Seahawks type players across the board. I don't think it could get much better.

Hawkscanner · Mar 24, 2016

Good thoughts Kearly. Bullard is a guy I could certainly see the Seahawks being interested in ... but for my money, offensive line (and now especially that Okung is gone) is the biggest glaring weakness this team has. I would agree that I believe Schneider is going to look to trade down. Agreed -- BUT, I think if/when he does so, he'll be looking to target Offensive Line at that point.

The more that I look at who is projected to be available at #26 ... the more I'm drawn to Jason Spriggs. Crazy athleticism ... ran a 4.94 in the 40 ... 31 reps of 225 lbs ... 115" Broad Jump ... and a 4.44 second 20 yard shuttle. He ranks 4th on the SPARQ List for OL. I know that there are some concerns in terms of his pass protection and overall functional strength, but I believe those are things that the Seahawks should be able to work with and improve. While I think the Hawks could trade down some and still nab him, the problem is that you can't trade down too far ... because I'm not sure he makes it out of the 1st round.

Agreed with your thoughts on Ifedi, Conklin, and Whitehair. Coleman and Le'Raven Clark -- I've got the same basic thoughts as you on those guys, which has led me to come back around to Spriggs. And I notice that other high profile draft experts like Rob Rang have us connected with Spriggs now as well.

In terms of your other picks -- absolutely LOVE Ryan Kelly and have for quite some time. I contend that getting more athletic guys in the middle of our OL is critical, as that is how we're going to contend with the likes of Aaron Donald and Star Lotulelei. Kelly is a guy that I covet very highly.

Connor McGovern (to me) is one of those players that I'm thinking the Hawks view as a "must have" guy in this draft. The fact that they were working him out seems to speak to that.

The other two that I'm personally high on are Graham Glasgow and Josh Garnett. I would love it if there were a way for the Seahawks to walk away from this draft with one of those two in hand.

So to me in terms of Offensive Lineman, my hope is that the Seahawks walk away from this draft with at least THREE new offensive lineman -- some combination of:

Left Tackle: Conklin or Spriggs
Center: Ryan Kelly and/or Graham Glasgow
Guard: Conner McGovern, and/or Graham Glasgow, and/or Joshua Garnett

If the Hawks are able to pull that off, I'll be a fairly happy man.

penihawk · Mar 24, 2016

I not only agree with the thought of this is how the club will see this draft but it's how I think they should go about it as well.

As I said in another post, the loss of Unger from the neck up was the biggest hit to the line last year and I think thats the box that has to get checked with Kelly over a couple others at center. For me he is the player we must have and I would be fine taking him at 26 if need be.

If Kelly is the 1st priority and Bullard long gone, I kind of think Chris Jones is a player with position diversity and bigtime upside that could be their target in rd 2. I like a couple other players as well in the DL pool as well in the 2nd but Jones checks most of the Seahawk boxes and should be available at 56 or a reasonable trade up.

OT after Conklin to me is filled with RT/G players and the 3rd-5th rd guys have the same upside as the late 1st-2nd rd guys that I hear the table getting banged for around here. Kinda expect a guy from the pool of guys like Shell,Beavers,Theus,Murphy,Cooper & Benenoch to come our way somewhere in the middle of the draft. I also think we may add an older cap casualty vet to the mix at OT as well to cover youth and a learning curve this year.

Love the other players mentioned and I would personally put my stamp of approval on this draft. We have to get better in the interior of both lines and those choices would go a long way in doing so. Good stuff Kearly.

SeatownJay · Mar 24, 2016

Is this where we point out that there is no pick #32 in the first round this year?

Seriously, nice work kearly.

HOLLYWOOD · Mar 24, 2016

Great read Kearly!

titan3131 · Mar 24, 2016

Keenan Reynolds qb
Devon caujste we
Tanner mcevoy as olb

Are all later round names I covet

Largent80 · Mar 24, 2016

This is great reading !!!!!!!

Attyla the Hawk · Mar 24, 2016

I could definitely see this scenario unfold. I would possibly add, that if Conklin were to fall past Indy at 18, that Seattle would almost assuredly make a move with McCloughan and Washington at #21 to try and get him.

Scot has made no secret that he wants at least 12 picks in this draft. He currently has 7. To do that he's shopping this pick. I could see Seattle moving up for the right guy (Conklin). From a demeanor/SPARQ perspective he's about as perfect an OT prospect as Cable could hope for. The draft would have to fall a certain way -- but in this case if it did I think Seattle has a more than willing partner with Washington, who is said to covet WR/LB and DT. All positions that should be well available at #26 based on need.

I'd also add that Sheldon Rankins seems to be another guy we could target a move up to #21 to acquire. If the draft breaks a certain way I think Seattle could move up in the first to take either of those two.

Bullard does seem like the kind of prospect Seattle may covet. A real gap penetrator. I do have to wonder about his productivity because it's rather modest for the types of defensive players we've selected in the first day. While the questions surrounding Ifedi/Coleman are legitimate -- I think they're probably in the same ballpark as the ones that could apply to Bullard. I tend to agree that we'd like to trade back and select from a pocket of talent in the 30-35 overall range if there isn't a reason to move up. Bullard, Ifedi, Coleman and Kelly would all be in that pocket of talent. I don't think for a second that if we were willing to pick Kelly at 42, that we would hesitate to take him at 30-35. That's Seattle's MO.

It does seem that #26 is somewhat of a no man's land for us. Not high enough to get our guy at OT/DT. And on the leading edge .. maybe a shade too high for the talent of pocket we'd be considering at #26.

Overall, I think Seattle has to be thrilled with the prospects available in the 50-100 overall range this year. I'd expect we'll try to load up as many selections as possible in this range.

kearly · Mar 24, 2016

Hawkscanner":2bq4aplv said:
The more that I look at who is projected to be available at #26 ... the more I'm drawn to Jason Spriggs. Crazy athleticism ... ran a 4.94 in the 40 ... 31 reps of 225 lbs ... 115" Broad Jump ... and a 4.44 second 20 yard shuttle. He ranks 4th on the SPARQ List for OL. I know that there are some concerns in terms of his pass protection and overall functional strength, but I believe those are things that the Seahawks should be able to work with and improve. While I think the Hawks could trade down some and still nab him, the problem is that you can't trade down too far ... because I'm not sure he makes it out of the 1st round.

Spriggs matches Cable's profile extremely well, but the reason I think Seattle avoids him, or at least views him as something other than a LT, is that he basically has the exact same strengths and weaknesses that Justin Britt had. In particular, both players struggle with recovery when a pass rusher makes a move on them. It's as much of a physical issue as anything else and I'm not sure it's possible to coach a player out of it. It remains a huge issue for Justin Britt, even at guard, after two years of coaching.

Pete Carroll recently talked up the OL, and essentially damned Britt with faint praise during it. As he should. Given Britt's well documented struggles and Pete's commentary, I think Seattle will be vary of drafting players with similar issues. But that's just my theory, I could be wrong.

kearly · Mar 24, 2016

SeatownJay":xwvydip1 said:
Is this where we point out that there is no pick #32 in the first round this year?

Seriously, nice work kearly.

heh.

kearly · Mar 24, 2016

Attyla the Hawk":27aoaw6n said:
Overall, I think Seattle has to be thrilled with the prospects available in the 50-100 overall range this year. I'd expect we'll try to load up as many selections as possible in this range.

I see it the opposite. I think there is a pretty big dropoff after pick 50 or so. Connor McGovern might be the best OL available at #56 (who fits Seattle's SPARQ requirements), and you could get him later. Javon Hargrave might be the best DL at #56, and you could get him later. I think there will be a run on OL and DL between picks 15-45 and you'll be looking at backups and role-players after that for the most part.

IMO, This is one of those drafts where finding gems is more important than usual. With the exception of run stuffing DT, there really isn't a position of strength in the draft this year that pushes quality prospects down into the 3rd and 4th rounds. It's also a very limited draft for a team like Seattle that drafts based on SPARQ.

Willyeye · Mar 24, 2016

Hey Kearly, I had put my delusional wishlist here, but I guess that was hijacking your thread, so I wanted to apologize. So sorry. I won't let it happen again.

titan3131 · Mar 24, 2016

Willyeye":1s2sst0q said:
kearly":1s2sst0q said:

This isn't based on my own preferences or grades, but an illustration of what I think the Seahawks would consider to be their ideal draft. If everything broke Seattle's way, within the realm of plausibility, the 2016 Seahawks draft might play out like such:

First round. Seattle trades down. In the previous four drafts, Seattle has a total of four trade-downs made before making their first pick. They also wanted to trade down before picking in 2011 but couldn't find a buyer. In this example I'll suppose that Seattle trades down to #31 with Denver who selects Germain Ifedi, a player they have been linked to as a RT/LG option. Seattle gains Denver's early 5th rounder plus a 7th (Denver doesn't have a 4th rounder). Denver starts the draft with 10 picks and would probably be fine with this deal.

Second round. Seattle trades UP. Seattle packages their second round pick (#56) and their original third round pick (#90) to move up to #42. I have no idea if Tampa would do the deal or not, I just picked them since their 42nd overall pick matches the trade chart exactly.

Normally, I don't like including trades in mock drafts since, you know, it comes across as rosterbation. But in this case, I felt like Seattle would want to find a way to justify moving up in round two while keeping a high draft pick count. Doing so would require Seattle to make two deals.

Seahawks picks after trades:

1st round (#31): DT Jonathan Bullard
2nd round (#42): C Ryan Kelly
3rd round (#97): DT Javon Hargrave
4th round (#124): G Connor McGovern
5th round (#144): RB Tyler Ervin
5th round (#171): T Brandon Shell
6th round (#215): Some guy who you've never heard of who is an awesome athlete
7th round (#225): Some guy who you've never heard of who is an awesome athlete
7th round (#228): Some guy who you've never heard of who is an awesome athlete
7th round (#247): Some guy who you've never heard of who is an awesome athlete

The more I study this draft, the more I think Seattle is going to have to wait a year before addressing left tackle. I buy into Shon Coleman, but his SPARQ rating is surprisingly awful and he has medical concerns. Germain Ifedi looks like a good prospect, but he's more of a RT/LG type than a LT. Jack Conklin has a decent SPARQ score and he has a decent shot to hold up at LT, but he'll probably be long gone before #26. Cody Whitehair has short arms.

So if we accept that LT isn't something that Seattle can realistically address in this draft while staying true to their belief in SPARQ, then what else is left for draft priorities? The remaining priorities are: center, left guard, right tackle, interior pass rush, run stuffing DT, and running back.

1st round: DT Jonathan Bullard.

Truthfully I have some mixed feelings on this... I think Bullard is closer to Jason Jones than Michael Bennett. That said, Bullard plays with a chip on his shoulder and is a monster athlete, he checks the two biggest boxes for a Seahawks player and he also fits arguably Seattle's biggest need. Seattle trades down and expands their draft pool which makes the next move easier to swallow.

2nd round: C Ryan Kelly

Kelly has been called the "heart and soul" of Alabama's offense. Seattle wants to build a new OL from scratch, so it makes sense to kick things off with the draft's best center.

Not only is Kelly the best center in the draft by a good margin, he also has the best SPARQ score of all the viable center prospects. The more I think about it, the more I see Kelly as a player that Seattle simply has to walk out of this draft with. It's entirely possible that they take Kelly with their first round pick if Bullard were not available.

Seattle usually has to feel very impassioned about a player to move up, but as we saw last year, Seattle isn't afraid to spend big to move up for a guy they feel that they have to have.

3rd round: DT Javon Hargrave

From here on out the talent pool hits a plateau. Seattle might draft several other players here since their talent level is pretty close, but I have them taking Hargrave here since he's the best value of any realistic option that's left which fits a need.

Hargrave is a small school player who fits a very similar "tweener" profile to Brandon Mebane back in 2007. More of a "game wrecker" than a sack artist or space eater. Hargrave is simply a disruptive player who could probably adapt to the 1-tech job with a modest weight gain. Even if he is only Mebane-lite, you have to feel great about that kind of value at the end of round 3.

4th round: G Connor McGovern

McGovern is a very obvious Seahawks target for two reasons. The first is that he could hypothetically play all five positions on the OL, giving Seattle the kind of versatility they covet in spades. The second is that he ranks #1 among all offensive lineman in SPARQ. Now granted, this offensive line class is not very athletic and McGovern's SPARQ score would have only ranked 15th among offensive lineman in the draft before this one. Overall, his draft profile is strikingly similar to last year's late 4th round pick, Mark Glowinsky.

Of all the players in the entire draft, McGovern feels the most destined to be a Seahawk.

5th round: RB Tyler Ervin

Ervin's explosiveness and utility is strikingly similar to Tyler Lockett, except Ervin plays RB. Seattle has already shown interest in Ervin which makes sense. Among the fastest and most explosive RBs in this draft, Ervin is the most intriguing of that sub-group as an NFL prospect. You might only be able to get 100 touches a year out of him, but Ervin can turn those touches into game breaking plays and few coaches value the big play more than Pete Carroll (just ask Jermaine Kearse).

Seattle's new uber-athletic ZBS OL seems to gel best with hyper-quick "mighty-mite" RBs like Thomas Rawls. It's worth noting that Seattle briefly courted Lance Dunbar in free agency, a similar player to Tyler Ervin.

If Ervin doesn't last this long, keep an eye on Marshaun Coprich and Keith Marshall.

5th round: T Brandon Shell

Shell may not last this long on account of his NFL bloodlines, his #2 SPARQ score among offensive tackles or that he played in the SEC. But if he is there, he gives Seattle nice insurance at RT or LG, basically fulfilling the Alvin Bailey role. If Webb or Britt struggle badly, Shell could probably step in on day one if needed and provide replacement level performance. Given his tools, bloodlines, and experience, his upside is comparable to James Carpenter.

Rounds 6-7.

At this point I could name some guys like Vernon Adams, Michael Thomas, Charone Peak or Travis Feeney, but Seattle's past history shows that they tend to draft off the radar in rounds 6 and 7.

With these last four picks, I expect Seattle to add at least one corner, probably a safety, perhaps a WR if the right one is available, and a fast linebacker candidate. A backup QB might be in play as well.

Click to expand...

My scenario is just a little different from yours. I see them trading down in order to get 5 picks in Rounds 2 & 3. I don't think they really like 1st round picks. I don't see them trading up with their natural 2nd round and 3rd round picks for only one 2nd round pick. There's just too much talent available in that part of the draft...your trades leave them with 4 picks after #215...4 picks in a portion of the draft that doesn't really have much talent available. I do agree with much of what you're saying. LT will not be a high priority because they probably won't be able to get a starter even if they pick an LT at #26 1st round. I think they wait until after June 1 for Lynch to retire, thus giving them an extra $9 million in cap space...they take part of this space and sign an LT who will compete with Gilliam and Sowell.

So here's my take (updated a bit from yesterday): Trade down 1st round pick #26 to Raiders for 2nd round pick #44 and 3rd round pick #75. This gives them 5 picks in the meatiest part of the draft.

2nd round Pick #44- C Ryan Kelly; alternates...DE/DT Jonathan Bullard, T Jason Spriggs, T Germain Ifedi
2nd round Pick #56- T Shon Coleman; alternates...DE Shilique Calhoun, C/G Nick Martin
3rd round Pick #75- DT Bronson Kaufusi; alternates...RB Kenneth Dixon, DT Javon Hargrave
3rd round Pick #90- G Connor McGovern; alternates...T Joe Haeg, T Le'Raven Clark
3rd round Pick #97- RB Tyler Ervin; alternates...OLB Deion Jones, G Joshua Garnett
4th round Pick #124- OLB Travis Feeney; alternates...C/G Graham Glasgow, G Joe Dahl, CB Jonathan Jones
5th round Pick #171- FS Justin Simmons; alternates...TE Tanner McEvoy, DE Alex McCalister, RB Keith Marshall
6th round Pick #215- FB Dan Vitale; alternates...DE Stephen Weatherly, DT Connor Wujciak
7th round Pick #225- WR Ricardo Louis; alternates...WR Devon Cajuste, WR Trevor Davis
7th round Pick #247- S Derrick Kindred; alternates...DE Dean Lowry, DT Joel Heath
UDFA- ILB B.J. Goodson, OLB Devonte Bond, QB Vernon Adams, QB Jeff Driskell

In the 1st round, Bullard, Spriggs or Ifedi probably won't be available, so I'm going with Ryan Kelly, our next starting Center...the other three guys are options should they happen to fall to #44. If any of those guys should fall to #56, they would also be in play for our 2nd pick. I have alternates just in case my picks are gone when we're up to bat.

Thats nice, but why are you hijacking kearlys thread? You have your own thread with your delusional thoughts.

McGruff · Mar 24, 2016

kearly":35vq8hsu said:
Attyla the Hawk":35vq8hsu said:

Overall, I think Seattle has to be thrilled with the prospects available in the 50-100 overall range this year. I'd expect we'll try to load up as many selections as possible in this range.

Click to expand...

I see it the opposite. I think there is a pretty big dropoff after pick 50 or so. Connor McGovern might be the best OL available at #56 (who fits Seattle's SPARQ requirements), and you could get him later. Javon Hargrave might be the best DL at #56, and you could get him later. I think there will be a run on OL and DL between picks 15-45 and you'll be looking at backups and role-players after that for the most part.

IMO, This is one of those drafts where finding gems is more important than usual. With the exception of run stuffing DT, there really isn't a position of strength in the draft this year that pushes quality prospects down into the 3rd and 4th rounds. It's also a very limited draft for a team like Seattle that drafts based on SPARQ.

I was noticing while going through my Sparq databases that this has got to be one of the least athletic classes ever. Its really pretty horrible.

kearly · Mar 24, 2016

Willyeye":2x7qjs5a said:
So here's my take (updated a bit from yesterday): Trade down 1st round pick #26 to Raiders for 2nd round pick #44 and 3rd round pick #75. This gives them 5 picks in the meatiest part of the draft.

The problem with this line of thinking is that Seattle tends to draft very strictly for athleticism and SPARQ, and when you apply the SPARQ filter to this draft it's clear that the "meatiest" part is from picks 15-45 or so. I love Shon Coleman, Nick Martin and Kenneth Dixon, but have you seen their SPARQ scores? It's unlikely that they are even on Seattle's draft board.

Simply put, this is one of the least athletic drafts in many years and that issue is especially pronounced after the 2nd wave of talent burns off around the middle of round 2. That doesn't mean Seattle can't find athletic gems with later picks, but they are mostly going to be role players, backups, and projects.

I don't know if Seattle will move up in round 2. That's definitely against character for them. But I think if they are given the choice between a good athletic starter at a position of need and two athletic backups, they will probably lean towards taking the starter since there are plenty of picks later to find athletic backups.

kearly · Mar 24, 2016

As far as trading out of the first and clinging to picks so that you can load up on athletic projects, we've actually seen this exact thing happen before. In the 2014 draft.

Seattle passed on a very obvious Joel Bitonio pick, trading down twice and adding picks. Anyway, here's how that draft went!

Paul Richardson
Justin Britt
Cassius Marsh
Kevin Norwood
Kevin Pierre-Louis
Jimmy Staten
Garrett Scott
Eric Pinkins
Kiero Small

I knew at the time it wasn't a very good draft, but even I'm kind of shocked how badly it's turned out. You could conceivably have every member of this draft class booted off the team by the start of the 2017 season.

Point being, Seattle got burned by getting too cute in 2014 and they know it. Case in point: the Seahawks approach in the 2015 draft was far more aggressive about acquiring legit starting players, including two expensive trades in the first three rounds for impact players. Seattle spent big, but they walked out of the top of the 2015 draft with Jimmy Graham, Frank Clark, and Tyler Lockett. Obviously, that draft had a much happier ending thanks to the strength of those early moves.

I think Seattle's methodology shifted after 2014. They will always value having lots of picks, but they will also value getting impact starters early in the draft, even if it costs them a little extra to do so.

Willyeye · Mar 24, 2016

titan3131":2la6wk1v said:
Willyeye":2la6wk1v said:

kearly":2la6wk1v said:

This isn't based on my own preferences or grades, but an illustration of what I think the Seahawks would consider to be their ideal draft. If everything broke Seattle's way, within the realm of plausibility, the 2016 Seahawks draft might play out like such:

First round. Seattle trades down. In the previous four drafts, Seattle has a total of four trade-downs made before making their first pick. They also wanted to trade down before picking in 2011 but couldn't find a buyer. In this example I'll suppose that Seattle trades down to #31 with Denver who selects Germain Ifedi, a player they have been linked to as a RT/LG option. Seattle gains Denver's early 5th rounder plus a 7th (Denver doesn't have a 4th rounder). Denver starts the draft with 10 picks and would probably be fine with this deal.

Second round. Seattle trades UP. Seattle packages their second round pick (#56) and their original third round pick (#90) to move up to #42. I have no idea if Tampa would do the deal or not, I just picked them since their 42nd overall pick matches the trade chart exactly.

Normally, I don't like including trades in mock drafts since, you know, it comes across as rosterbation. But in this case, I felt like Seattle would want to find a way to justify moving up in round two while keeping a high draft pick count. Doing so would require Seattle to make two deals.

Seahawks picks after trades:

1st round (#31): DT Jonathan Bullard
2nd round (#42): C Ryan Kelly
3rd round (#97): DT Javon Hargrave
4th round (#124): G Connor McGovern
5th round (#144): RB Tyler Ervin
5th round (#171): T Brandon Shell
6th round (#215): Some guy who you've never heard of who is an awesome athlete
7th round (#225): Some guy who you've never heard of who is an awesome athlete
7th round (#228): Some guy who you've never heard of who is an awesome athlete
7th round (#247): Some guy who you've never heard of who is an awesome athlete

The more I study this draft, the more I think Seattle is going to have to wait a year before addressing left tackle. I buy into Shon Coleman, but his SPARQ rating is surprisingly awful and he has medical concerns. Germain Ifedi looks like a good prospect, but he's more of a RT/LG type than a LT. Jack Conklin has a decent SPARQ score and he has a decent shot to hold up at LT, but he'll probably be long gone before #26. Cody Whitehair has short arms.

So if we accept that LT isn't something that Seattle can realistically address in this draft while staying true to their belief in SPARQ, then what else is left for draft priorities? The remaining priorities are: center, left guard, right tackle, interior pass rush, run stuffing DT, and running back.

1st round: DT Jonathan Bullard.

Truthfully I have some mixed feelings on this... I think Bullard is closer to Jason Jones than Michael Bennett. That said, Bullard plays with a chip on his shoulder and is a monster athlete, he checks the two biggest boxes for a Seahawks player and he also fits arguably Seattle's biggest need. Seattle trades down and expands their draft pool which makes the next move easier to swallow.

2nd round: C Ryan Kelly

Kelly has been called the "heart and soul" of Alabama's offense. Seattle wants to build a new OL from scratch, so it makes sense to kick things off with the draft's best center.

Not only is Kelly the best center in the draft by a good margin, he also has the best SPARQ score of all the viable center prospects. The more I think about it, the more I see Kelly as a player that Seattle simply has to walk out of this draft with. It's entirely possible that they take Kelly with their first round pick if Bullard were not available.

Seattle usually has to feel very impassioned about a player to move up, but as we saw last year, Seattle isn't afraid to spend big to move up for a guy they feel that they have to have.

3rd round: DT Javon Hargrave

From here on out the talent pool hits a plateau. Seattle might draft several other players here since their talent level is pretty close, but I have them taking Hargrave here since he's the best value of any realistic option that's left which fits a need.

Hargrave is a small school player who fits a very similar "tweener" profile to Brandon Mebane back in 2007. More of a "game wrecker" than a sack artist or space eater. Hargrave is simply a disruptive player who could probably adapt to the 1-tech job with a modest weight gain. Even if he is only Mebane-lite, you have to feel great about that kind of value at the end of round 3.

4th round: G Connor McGovern

McGovern is a very obvious Seahawks target for two reasons. The first is that he could hypothetically play all five positions on the OL, giving Seattle the kind of versatility they covet in spades. The second is that he ranks #1 among all offensive lineman in SPARQ. Now granted, this offensive line class is not very athletic and McGovern's SPARQ score would have only ranked 15th among offensive lineman in the draft before this one. Overall, his draft profile is strikingly similar to last year's late 4th round pick, Mark Glowinsky.

Of all the players in the entire draft, McGovern feels the most destined to be a Seahawk.

5th round: RB Tyler Ervin

Ervin's explosiveness and utility is strikingly similar to Tyler Lockett, except Ervin plays RB. Seattle has already shown interest in Ervin which makes sense. Among the fastest and most explosive RBs in this draft, Ervin is the most intriguing of that sub-group as an NFL prospect. You might only be able to get 100 touches a year out of him, but Ervin can turn those touches into game breaking plays and few coaches value the big play more than Pete Carroll (just ask Jermaine Kearse).

Seattle's new uber-athletic ZBS OL seems to gel best with hyper-quick "mighty-mite" RBs like Thomas Rawls. It's worth noting that Seattle briefly courted Lance Dunbar in free agency, a similar player to Tyler Ervin.

If Ervin doesn't last this long, keep an eye on Marshaun Coprich and Keith Marshall.

5th round: T Brandon Shell

Shell may not last this long on account of his NFL bloodlines, his #2 SPARQ score among offensive tackles or that he played in the SEC. But if he is there, he gives Seattle nice insurance at RT or LG, basically fulfilling the Alvin Bailey role. If Webb or Britt struggle badly, Shell could probably step in on day one if needed and provide replacement level performance. Given his tools, bloodlines, and experience, his upside is comparable to James Carpenter.

Rounds 6-7.

At this point I could name some guys like Vernon Adams, Michael Thomas, Charone Peak or Travis Feeney, but Seattle's past history shows that they tend to draft off the radar in rounds 6 and 7.

With these last four picks, I expect Seattle to add at least one corner, probably a safety, perhaps a WR if the right one is available, and a fast linebacker candidate. A backup QB might be in play as well.

Click to expand...

My scenario is just a little different from yours. I see them trading down in order to get 5 picks in Rounds 2 & 3. I don't think they really like 1st round picks. I don't see them trading up with their natural 2nd round and 3rd round picks for only one 2nd round pick. There's just too much talent available in that part of the draft...your trades leave them with 4 picks after #215...4 picks in a portion of the draft that doesn't really have much talent available. I do agree with much of what you're saying. LT will not be a high priority because they probably won't be able to get a starter even if they pick an LT at #26 1st round. I think they wait until after June 1 for Lynch to retire, thus giving them an extra $9 million in cap space...they take part of this space and sign an LT who will compete with Gilliam and Sowell.

So here's my take (updated a bit from yesterday): Trade down 1st round pick #26 to Raiders for 2nd round pick #44 and 3rd round pick #75. This gives them 5 picks in the meatiest part of the draft.

2nd round Pick #44- C Ryan Kelly; alternates...DE/DT Jonathan Bullard, T Jason Spriggs, T Germain Ifedi
2nd round Pick #56- T Shon Coleman; alternates...DE Shilique Calhoun, C/G Nick Martin
3rd round Pick #75- DT Bronson Kaufusi; alternates...RB Kenneth Dixon, DT Javon Hargrave
3rd round Pick #90- G Connor McGovern; alternates...T Joe Haeg, T Le'Raven Clark
3rd round Pick #97- RB Tyler Ervin; alternates...OLB Deion Jones, G Joshua Garnett
4th round Pick #124- OLB Travis Feeney; alternates...C/G Graham Glasgow, G Joe Dahl, CB Jonathan Jones
5th round Pick #171- FS Justin Simmons; alternates...TE Tanner McEvoy, DE Alex McCalister, RB Keith Marshall
6th round Pick #215- FB Dan Vitale; alternates...DE Stephen Weatherly, DT Connor Wujciak
7th round Pick #225- WR Ricardo Louis; alternates...WR Devon Cajuste, WR Trevor Davis
7th round Pick #247- S Derrick Kindred; alternates...DE Dean Lowry, DT Joel Heath
UDFA- ILB B.J. Goodson, OLB Devonte Bond, QB Vernon Adams, QB Jeff Driskell

In the 1st round, Bullard, Spriggs or Ifedi probably won't be available, so I'm going with Ryan Kelly, our next starting Center...the other three guys are options should they happen to fall to #44. If any of those guys should fall to #56, they would also be in play for our 2nd pick. I have alternates just in case my picks are gone when we're up to bat.

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Thats nice, but why are you hijacking kearlys thread? You have your own thread with your delusional thoughts.

Titan, you're right. I sincerely apologize, I didn't mean to offend you. I sure didn't think it would be hijacking Kearly's post, but I guess it did. I won't let it happen again. I've been a Seahawk fan for 20+ years, and I'm now semi-retired, so I spend a lot more time on everything Seahawks. I realize now I'm probably in no position to be giving my opinions on the Seahawks draft...I guess I'm just stupid. I thought I could come here and learn new things, but I guess that was also a bad idea. Again Titan, I apologize.

xgeoff · Mar 24, 2016

kearly":28244bt4 said:
Willyeye":28244bt4 said:

So here's my take (updated a bit from yesterday): Trade down 1st round pick #26 to Raiders for 2nd round pick #44 and 3rd round pick #75. This gives them 5 picks in the meatiest part of the draft.

Click to expand...

The problem with this line of thinking is that Seattle tends to draft very strictly for athleticism and SPARQ, and when you apply the SPARQ filter to this draft it's clear that the "meatiest" part is from picks 15-45 or so. I love Shon Coleman, Nick Martin and Kenneth Dixon, but have you seen their SPARQ scores? It's unlikely that they are even on Seattle's draft board.

Simply put, this is one of the least athletic drafts in many years and that issue is especially pronounced after the 2nd wave of talent burns off around the middle of round 2. That doesn't mean Seattle can't find athletic gems with later picks, but they are mostly going to be role players, backups, and projects.

I don't know if Seattle will move up in round 2. That's definitely against character for them. But I think if they are given the choice between a good athletic starter at a position of need and two athletic backups, they will probably lean towards taking the starter since there are plenty of picks later to find athletic backups.

This is unfortunate. I think someone like Nick Martin would be a great person to build the line around. And sparq didn't do squat for us with busts like Justin Britt.

McGruff · Mar 24, 2016

Britt was not actually all that Sparqy.

The "what I actually think will happen" mock draft

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