https://theathletic.com/994511/2019/05/ ... ule-of-53/
The article goes into the same kind of 'cart before horse' errors as we see specifically with the NFL and even more specifically with the Seahawks. Worth a read and even a subscription in my estimation. The Athletic does some really good work that compliments Fieldgulls and other Seahawks centric outlets and supplements our own thoughts here.
Charles Reep is known as both the founding father of soccer analytics and the man who “helped ruin decades of English soccer.”
Beginning in the 1950s, Reep published a series of papers examining the sequences that lead to scoring a goal. Reep found that most goals were scored after a series of three or fewer passes, which led to his recommendation: Teams should avoid long passing sequences by kicking the ball far down the field and trying to chase it down. Eventually, this advice became a cornerstone of English coaching.
The problem? Possession is fluid in soccer. Most goals were scored after short sequences because the vast majority of possessions were short sequences. When one accounts for the prevalence of each sequence length, it turns out that maintaining possession of the ball is associated with an increase in the likelihood of scoring a goal. The error in logic is akin to stating that motorcycles are safer than cars because there are fewer fatal accidents involving motorcycles, ignoring that motorcycles constitute a small percentage of vehicles on the road.
In other words, Reep’s advice was exactly backward. Reep’s contention that “passing for the sake of passing can be disastrous” was misguided.
We now turn to the Seahawks, whose actions suggest that they view passing with the same disdain that Reep did. And — like English soccer during the long-ball era — the Seahawks’ devotion to running the football appears to be based on bad math.
The article goes into the same kind of 'cart before horse' errors as we see specifically with the NFL and even more specifically with the Seahawks. Worth a read and even a subscription in my estimation. The Athletic does some really good work that compliments Fieldgulls and other Seahawks centric outlets and supplements our own thoughts here.