I see the argument that you are making, but keep going with it. Yes, a high first round pick could fall to the end of the first round. In addition, a mid first round pick could fall to the second, a second round pick could fall to the third, another second round pick could end up as a UDFA, and so on. The uncertainty devalues picks across the board from top to bottom, but because the top picks are worth exponentially more then the higher picks suffer the most.seabowl":s0yhrn85 said:I believe some are missing the point I was trying to make. After the trade happened it was touted in some articles that Seattle pulled a fast one on the Jets because of the lack of ability to diagnose players abilities who were going to be in the draft next year due to a cancelled or shortened college season. My thought was this can also go the other way where a really good player who normally would have been drafted high slips to the lower part of round 1 for the same reason, lack of college tape.
Next years draft looks like a really good year to have about ten 3rd round picks, and the proof in the pudding will be how teams trade next draft day. I expect moving up will be extremely cheap given the level of uncertainty, and so if the Hawks do want to move back up into the first for a specific player then it should remain an option.
That being said, I would be skeptical of any trade up. The way to deal with high uncertainty is by taking more shots.