Alright everyone,
The Turkey has been cooked, the leftovers are in the icebox, Christmas carols are in the air, and that can only mean one thing: It's playoff scenario season! With the consent of the moderators, I will go over the NFC picture and scenarios here on the main board since it directly affects the Seahawks, and I will link up with a companion article that covers the AFC Playoff Scenario in the NFC General forum. With all that said, let's get started with.....
NFC East Record Conf. Division Next Five
Dallas 6-5 5-3 3-1 New Orleans, Philly, @Indy, Tampa, @NY Giants
Washington 6-5 6-3 2-1 @Philly, NY Giants, @Jax, @Tenn, Philly
Philly 5-6 3-5 2-1 Washington, @Dallas, @LA Rams, Houston, @Washington
NY Giants 3-8 2-7 0-4 Chicago, @Washington, Tenn, @Indy, Dallas
Clinching Scenarios: NONE There are likely to be none for some time either as this division race is clearly a dogfight with only the Giants being really out of it. Dallas probably has the edge, but it's just that: An Edge. Dallas is first in the NFCE by virtue of it's division record. Washington edges Seattle right now for the #6 seed because it currently has played and won one more conference game.
Elimination Scenarios: NONE Only the NY Giants are close to being eliminated and the soonest that could happen is week 14 and likely not even then. See above. It's entirely possible that 8-8 may win this division.
NFC North Record Conf. Division Next Five
Chicago 8-3 6-1 3-1 @NY Giants, LA Rams, Green Bay, @San Fran, @Minny
Minnesota 6-4-1 5-3-1 2-1-1 @New England, @Seattle, Miami, @Detroit, Chicago
Green Bay 4-6-1 2-5-1 1-2-1 Arizona, Atlanta, @Chicago, @NY Jets, Detroit
Detroit 4-7 2-6 1-3 LA Rams, @Arizona, @Buffalo, Minny, @Green Bay
Clinching Scenarios: NONE Chicago is clearly in control of this division with a solid 1.5 game lead and most tiebreaks, but Minnesota could easily catch them still, and even Green Bay isn't out of it thanks to a fairly cush schedule of Green Bay. Minnesota is currently the five seed but has a really tough schedule coming up.
Elimination Scenario: Because Detroit has lost to Chicago twice already, Detroit can be eliminated from the NFC North Race with a loss (against the LA Rams) AND a Chicago win (at the NY Giants). IMHO this seems likely.
NFC South Record Conf. Division Next Five
New Orleans(1.5) 10-1 7-1 2-1 @Dallas, @Tampa, @Carolina, Pittsburgh, Carolina
Carolina 6-5 4-4 1-1 @Tampa, @Cleveland, New Orleans, Atlanta, @New Orleans
Atlanta 4-7 4-4 2-2 Baltimore, @Green Bay, Arizona, @Carolina, @Tampa
Tampa Bay 4-7 3-5 1-2 Carolina, New Orleans, @Baltimore, @Dallas, Atlanta
Clinching Scenarios: Unlike the LA Rams, New Orleans can't quite clinch on their own, but their magic number is one and a half (see number in parenthesis). That's because they are being chased by Carolina who they haven't played yet. However any combination of a New Orleans win AND a Carolina loss would clinch the NFC South for New Orleans because that would put New Orleans at 11 wins and out of reach of a 6 loss Carolina team. [Actually the scenario is a New Orleans win + Carolina loss OR tie *OR* a New Orleans tie + Carolina loss] If only New Orleans wins, they won't win the South outright but will be very close (like the LA Rams are in the West).
Elimination Scenarios: Atlanta and Tampa have already been eliminated from the NFC South race. Carolina can as well (see above). No one in this division can be eliminated outright from the playoffs this week.
NFC West Record Conf. Division Next Five
LA Rams(0.5) 10-1 6-1 4-0 @Detroit, @Chicago, Philly, @Arizona, San Francisco
Seattle 6-5 5-3 1-2 San Francisco, Minny, @San Francisco, Kansas City, Arizona
Arizona 2-9 2-5 2-2 @Green Bay, Detroit, @Atlanta, LA Rams, @Seattle
San Francisco 2-9 1-7 0-3 @Seattle, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, @LA Rams
Clinching Scenarios: The LA Rams are on the verge of clinching the NFC West outright. ANY win or tie by the LA Rams or ANY loss or tie by Seattle clinches the NFC West for the LA Rams. This is because the LA Rams have already beaten Seattle twice and thus has the tiebreak. Seattle has an easy enough schedule that it may not cooperate, but that likely won't matter given the schedule of the LA Rams. The number in parenthesis reflects the "magic number" required for the LA Rams to clinch, i.e. 1/2 since even a tie by either will be enough.
Elimination Scenarios: Both Arizona and San Francisco have been eliminated from the NFC West. Seattle might be as well (see above). In addition, both Arizona and San Francisco can be eliminated if: 1) They lose and 2) At least three of the following teams win: Seattle, Minny, Dallas, Washington, or Carolina. Note that if San Fran loses to Seattle (likely IMHO), that puts San Fran in grave danger of elimination right there and endangers Arizona as well.
As a Seattle Fan who do you root for?
1) Root for Seattle always, always, always. Seattle is in a good position (perhaps even the pole position) to grab either the #5 or #6 seed, but that depends on taking advantage of her home heavy schedule in the home stretch along with a weaker back quarter of the schedule.
2) Root *against* Washington and Dallas. We want one and only one entry from the NFC East (and it doesn't really matter who).
3) Root for Chicago. This will put pressure on the rest of the NFC North. We want only one entry from the NFC North if possible or at most two. Clinching the NFC North for Chicago helps this.
4) Root against Minnesota and Green Bay (unless playing Minnesota). This cuts down on competition for the wild card
5) Root *against* Carolina. Again this cuts down on any possible competition.
I hope everyone finds this useful.
The Turkey has been cooked, the leftovers are in the icebox, Christmas carols are in the air, and that can only mean one thing: It's playoff scenario season! With the consent of the moderators, I will go over the NFC picture and scenarios here on the main board since it directly affects the Seahawks, and I will link up with a companion article that covers the AFC Playoff Scenario in the NFC General forum. With all that said, let's get started with.....
NFC East Record Conf. Division Next Five
Dallas 6-5 5-3 3-1 New Orleans, Philly, @Indy, Tampa, @NY Giants
Washington 6-5 6-3 2-1 @Philly, NY Giants, @Jax, @Tenn, Philly
Philly 5-6 3-5 2-1 Washington, @Dallas, @LA Rams, Houston, @Washington
NY Giants 3-8 2-7 0-4 Chicago, @Washington, Tenn, @Indy, Dallas
Clinching Scenarios: NONE There are likely to be none for some time either as this division race is clearly a dogfight with only the Giants being really out of it. Dallas probably has the edge, but it's just that: An Edge. Dallas is first in the NFCE by virtue of it's division record. Washington edges Seattle right now for the #6 seed because it currently has played and won one more conference game.
Elimination Scenarios: NONE Only the NY Giants are close to being eliminated and the soonest that could happen is week 14 and likely not even then. See above. It's entirely possible that 8-8 may win this division.
NFC North Record Conf. Division Next Five
Chicago 8-3 6-1 3-1 @NY Giants, LA Rams, Green Bay, @San Fran, @Minny
Minnesota 6-4-1 5-3-1 2-1-1 @New England, @Seattle, Miami, @Detroit, Chicago
Green Bay 4-6-1 2-5-1 1-2-1 Arizona, Atlanta, @Chicago, @NY Jets, Detroit
Detroit 4-7 2-6 1-3 LA Rams, @Arizona, @Buffalo, Minny, @Green Bay
Clinching Scenarios: NONE Chicago is clearly in control of this division with a solid 1.5 game lead and most tiebreaks, but Minnesota could easily catch them still, and even Green Bay isn't out of it thanks to a fairly cush schedule of Green Bay. Minnesota is currently the five seed but has a really tough schedule coming up.
Elimination Scenario: Because Detroit has lost to Chicago twice already, Detroit can be eliminated from the NFC North Race with a loss (against the LA Rams) AND a Chicago win (at the NY Giants). IMHO this seems likely.
NFC South Record Conf. Division Next Five
New Orleans(1.5) 10-1 7-1 2-1 @Dallas, @Tampa, @Carolina, Pittsburgh, Carolina
Carolina 6-5 4-4 1-1 @Tampa, @Cleveland, New Orleans, Atlanta, @New Orleans
Atlanta 4-7 4-4 2-2 Baltimore, @Green Bay, Arizona, @Carolina, @Tampa
Tampa Bay 4-7 3-5 1-2 Carolina, New Orleans, @Baltimore, @Dallas, Atlanta
Clinching Scenarios: Unlike the LA Rams, New Orleans can't quite clinch on their own, but their magic number is one and a half (see number in parenthesis). That's because they are being chased by Carolina who they haven't played yet. However any combination of a New Orleans win AND a Carolina loss would clinch the NFC South for New Orleans because that would put New Orleans at 11 wins and out of reach of a 6 loss Carolina team. [Actually the scenario is a New Orleans win + Carolina loss OR tie *OR* a New Orleans tie + Carolina loss] If only New Orleans wins, they won't win the South outright but will be very close (like the LA Rams are in the West).
Elimination Scenarios: Atlanta and Tampa have already been eliminated from the NFC South race. Carolina can as well (see above). No one in this division can be eliminated outright from the playoffs this week.
NFC West Record Conf. Division Next Five
LA Rams(0.5) 10-1 6-1 4-0 @Detroit, @Chicago, Philly, @Arizona, San Francisco
Seattle 6-5 5-3 1-2 San Francisco, Minny, @San Francisco, Kansas City, Arizona
Arizona 2-9 2-5 2-2 @Green Bay, Detroit, @Atlanta, LA Rams, @Seattle
San Francisco 2-9 1-7 0-3 @Seattle, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, @LA Rams
Clinching Scenarios: The LA Rams are on the verge of clinching the NFC West outright. ANY win or tie by the LA Rams or ANY loss or tie by Seattle clinches the NFC West for the LA Rams. This is because the LA Rams have already beaten Seattle twice and thus has the tiebreak. Seattle has an easy enough schedule that it may not cooperate, but that likely won't matter given the schedule of the LA Rams. The number in parenthesis reflects the "magic number" required for the LA Rams to clinch, i.e. 1/2 since even a tie by either will be enough.
Elimination Scenarios: Both Arizona and San Francisco have been eliminated from the NFC West. Seattle might be as well (see above). In addition, both Arizona and San Francisco can be eliminated if: 1) They lose and 2) At least three of the following teams win: Seattle, Minny, Dallas, Washington, or Carolina. Note that if San Fran loses to Seattle (likely IMHO), that puts San Fran in grave danger of elimination right there and endangers Arizona as well.
As a Seattle Fan who do you root for?
1) Root for Seattle always, always, always. Seattle is in a good position (perhaps even the pole position) to grab either the #5 or #6 seed, but that depends on taking advantage of her home heavy schedule in the home stretch along with a weaker back quarter of the schedule.
2) Root *against* Washington and Dallas. We want one and only one entry from the NFC East (and it doesn't really matter who).
3) Root for Chicago. This will put pressure on the rest of the NFC North. We want only one entry from the NFC North if possible or at most two. Clinching the NFC North for Chicago helps this.
4) Root against Minnesota and Green Bay (unless playing Minnesota). This cuts down on competition for the wild card
5) Root *against* Carolina. Again this cuts down on any possible competition.
I hope everyone finds this useful.