olyfan63":3s4mm7oj said:
LTH":3s4mm7oj said:
THIS. Pete tried the model of "Pay your top 10 game manager QB as if he were a top 3 elite passing QB while being 5-7 talented players short of being a legit contender" and found that with this model he still made the playoffs but lost in the wildcard or divisional round.
Pete and the Seahawks SB playoff runs were based on the model, "Have a mobile, running top 10 game manager QB on a cheap rookie contract, behind a cheap road-grader O-Line, pay a bell-cow RB, and load up on game-changing Defensive talent".
I think Pete (rightly) knows he can be successful again with this model. The current team is much closer to being successful with this model again than most people realize. The emergence of Rashaad Penny and Jake Curhan were key, and the D is very close to being good again with young stars like Jordyn Brooks and Darrell Taylor.
Trading Russell for picks and players, getting lucky with a rookie contract QB, or a cheap vet QB who massively outplays his contract, ala Case Keenum of the Viking's Minnesota Miracle, and signing some key, high value Free Agents on D, hitting a couple-three or even five picks in the draft, and this team could surpass everyone's expectations and get past the divisional round for once. It's really not even that farfetched.
Pete has shown his evolution as a coach on both sides of the ball, even if so many here stubbornly refuse to see it. Proof: committing to Shane Waldron, enough to see the late-season success. Proof: Firing KNJ, going with smaller, non-Richard Sherman CBs, finally cutting Tre Flowers.
Pete's original model still works, with minor adaptations. Essentially a variation of Pete's model has gotten SF to the NFCCG. Can't forget to also include Pete's emphasis on quality special teams play as a key part of his model. The Niners special teams put them in the NFCCG. The 2014 Seahawks Special Teams put them into SB49. (Fake punt TD Jon Ryan to Garry Gilliam, Onside kick recovery, 2-point conversion to Luke Willson) Poor Packers have been screwed by Special Teams failures in playoffs twice in recent memory now.
You really think Russell Wilson is a game manager? A guy that's thrown 292 touchdowns in his regular season career to only 87 interceptions is a game manager? You think a top 10 quarterback is a game manager?
You should watch the 2011 season over again on Game Pass. You can skip the first eight games and watch from the Baltimore upset onwards. Even with our game manager QB playing well by his standards....watch the Redskins and 49ers games. See how we don't get the big offensive play when we need it. And watch that great defense choke a ten point 4th quarter lead away versus the Skins, and give up a late go ahead TD to Alex Smith and the 49ers when they had a 17-14 lead with just a few minutes to go. Without a playmaker like Russ, that model was never going to be good enough.
Any good veteran game manager now costs good money. Instead of $35 million dollar Russ, let's use $15 million to get a guy the level of Case Keenum during his good single season in Minnesota. That savings allows you to get two Pro Bowl ish upgrades elsewhere on the roster. Does that difference come close to the downgrade at quarterback?
During that one good season Keenum had in Minnesota, he still only threw 22 touchdowns. Russell's done better than that during every year of his career, except 2014. Keenum's 7.4 yards per attempt that season has been bettered by Russ every single year except 2017. Bad Russ....is better than Good Keenum.
The only way to save a ton of money at the QB position so you have huge cap room is to draft a guy. And most likely, you're getting a guy that struggles like Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Mitch Trubisky, Blake Bortles, etc. A Mac Jones is as good as you can hope for. And as good as he was for the Pats this year, Jones threw for more INTS, less TDs, and had a lower yards per attempt than 2012-2013 Russ.
And then there's the part that always gets left out when saying young Russ was just a game manager - and that's his rushing ability. There isn't a QB we can draft that's going to add 500 yards of rushing per season to our totals, and can throw the ball well at the same time like young Russ could. If Lamar Jackson was in this draft? Sure, trade Russ and draft him. But if you want a dynamic runner at QB, you're most likely taking a Trey Lance type. A guy who's nowhere near as good a passer as Russ was at NC State and Wisconsin.
As the Packers loss to the 49ers showed, special teams is definitely key. Question is - is Pete the coach we can count on to take care of this? He did have the brilliant draft pick of Dickson. However, he's also the guy that decided he didn't like Clint Gresham anymore, screwing up our reliable battery of Gresham, Ryan, and Haushka. It messed Haushka up, so Pete replaces him with Blair Walsh, who singlehandedly cost us a 2017 playoff berth. So not sure his judgement can be trusted.