Rumors: Proposed trade has Cowboys sending Dak to Seahawks

[Hawkstorian]

Writer speculation is not a rumor.

 

[dbsn2420]

Hard No!

 

[FlyingGunHawk]

Hard pass. Let's look to the draft to the future. Dak's contract is too extreme and he's injury prone.

Out of all of Wilson's pros and cons, I did appreciate his durability. The previous season notwithstanding. TBH, I think that was probably one of his best attributes.

 

[IndyHawk]

Too many lost games to injury for one.
Will cost too much for the risk in $$$ and precious draft picks.
Big time NO..I'd rather have Rush for a 4th rd pick.

 

[JayhawkMike]

It is a stupid idea. Completely stupid. That’s the only reason I think PC might consider it. I’m sure it’s just clickbait though.

 

[NoChops]

I was comparing them by DVOA, which tries to correct for things like opponent quality and measure how well a given player is doing the things that actually help a team win, rather than holding the player responsible for the way the front office built the team on which he plays.

In 2019, Prescott was 6th in DVOA. Wilson was 7th.
By DYAR (a measure of value produced, not per-snap quality), Prescott was best in the league by quite a bit. Wilson was 4th.
By ANY/A, Prescott was 6th and Wilson was 8th.
By passer rating, which doesn't take things like sacks, fumbles, or opponent quality into account, Wilson was 5th and Prescott 10th.
By QBR, Prescott was 4th and Wilson 5th.

In 2020, Prescott was 8th in DVOA. Wilson was 13th.
By DYAR, Prescott was just 19th, while Wilson was 11th. That gets to one of my big issues with Prescott, which I'll discuss in more detail below. On a per-snap basis, Prescott was noticeably better, but Prescott only had 222 attempts.
By ANY/A, Prescott was 6th and Wilson 8th, basically confirming what DVOA told us: on a per-snap basis, Prescott was better than Wilson. But Wilson stayed on the field much better than Prescott (i.e., didn't get injured and miss time), and so produced more value.

In 2021, Prescott was third in DVOA and third in DYAR. Wilson was 12th in DVOA and 15th in DYAR. That was the one season in which Wilson lost playing time to injury, and Prescott missed just one game.
ANY/A had the two closer in per-snap quality than DVOA, but with Prescott still ahead of Wilson. Prescott was 7th and Wilson 8th.
By QBR, Wilson (54.7, good for 9th) was just ahead of Prescott (54.6, good for 11th, with Wentz of all people between the two with a score that also rounded to 54.7 like Wilson's).
By passer rating, Prescott (104.2, good for third) was just ahead of Wilson (103.1, good for fourth).

I have my problems with DVOA, because the FootballOutsiders feel they have to keep the formulas secret, but at least they tell us qualitatively how it's calculated, and specifically, what factors go into it. That makes it infinitely better than, say, PFF grades, which appear to be little more than "here's how much our writers personally like each player." That is, PFF grades are total black boxes, with nothing more than "trust us, our graders are good" as a response to "how do you calculate these grades?" Even if they're not black boxes to the extent PFF grades are, DVOA and DYAR are still black boxes, so they're inferior in that respect to things like AV, QBR, passer rating, and ANY/A, which are calculated by publicly available formulas, but DVOA appears to be a better measure of player quality, and DYAR a better measure of value produced, than any of those.

Counting stats, like TDs or passing yards, are good measures of actual value produced, but not good measures of player quality, nor of what to expect of players going forward. Rate stats, like TDs per dropback and ANY/A (or even passing yards per dropback, which fails to account for things like sacks and turnovers), are much-better measures of player quality and predictors of future performance. I prefer DYAR, which has the same kinds of adjustments as DVOA, but it's a measure of value produced by the player or team, not per-snap quality like DVOA.

As I mentioned, one of Prescott's biggest weaknesses is that he already missed a lot of the 2020 season with injuries, plus he's out for at least a month of the 2022 season (and if Wilson's utter suckitude after coming back from a finger injury after just a few games missed last season is any kind of guide, Prescott might help his team more by recovering fully before trying to return). I believe in one of the first major original results that came out of Baseball Prospectus: "health is a skill," that is, that players who have had injury problems tend to continue to have injury problems. That was actually my biggest issue with the contract the Seahawks gave Dissly: on every play, I'm afraid one of his tendons will pop.

The two reasons I don't want the Seahawks to get Prescott are because he's now missing multiple games for the second time in three seasons, and because he would cost too much in draft capital to get. The post to which I was replying came to the same conclusion I did (don't get Prescott!), but by what I consider to be completely incorrect criteria: claiming Prescott was average, when in fact he's been one of the top QBs in the NFL on a per-snap basis, and when he's stayed on the field, one of the best in absolute production terms too; and claiming that Prescott has an expensive contract, which is true, but it wouldn't be the case for the Seahawks if they acquired him, because much of the cap cost for Prescott in 2022-2024 is in signing-bonus proration, which the Cowboys would have to eat. If you could get Prescott without having to give up much draft capital and pay him $94,000 (yes, just ninety-four thousand!!) for each game he's on your roster in 2022, then pay him $31M in 2023 and $29M in 2024, that would be very much worth doing, even with the injury risk. But since that's not going to happen, I'd rather the Seahawks stay away from a player who is likely to cost a ton of draft capital and who appears riskier in injury terms than he did a couple of years ago.

Appreciate the effort you put into the post, but I'm still not buying it. Living in Dallas, I have the most wonderful opportunity to watch the Cowboys every week. Dak never puts the ball on the numbers, almost every catch takes more effort from the WR than needed. Overthrows the long ball, fumbles too much (has ten more than Russ already for his career) and makes bone headed decisions at the most crucial times. Prescott is one of the Cowboys I can actually stomach, but the kid is not a winner and couldn't carry Russ' jockstrap. I'm a full-on Russ hater these days btw.

 

[Shaggy]

Why? I think Geno Smith is playing well. Why would they want to lose picks for Prescott?

 

[toffee]

Why? I think Geno Smith is playing well. Why would they want to lose picks for Prescott?

Well but not well enough? and Geno doesn't have the big name?

 

[Rat]

Maybe discussed, but I seriously doubt it was "proposed". I actually like Dak on his current contract though. I wouldn't hate it depending on the compensation.

 

[seatownlowdown]

OP, do us all a favor and delete this thread.

 

[Seahawk_Dan]

Gross. If Pete or John ever greenlit that then they’d deserve to be sh*tcanned

 

[vtxretro02]

NO THANKs!

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Sources!

 

[jammerhawk]

There are reasons why this time year is called silly season.

This speculation is another in a series of fanciful trades devised by homers to hopefully rid their team of potential further liabilities.

Adam to the Hawks, when he’s not as good as Geno, right.
Edwards-Hilliard to the Hawks, when he is closing in on the end of his rookie contract and will want to get paid; and has been overtaken on the Chiefs depth chart by their rookie RB.

Truly silly stuff!!!

 

[OLYhawks]

Heavy is the National Enquirer of sports. Everything they produce is click bait.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

they want clicks.......and it works.
Like the rest of these sites. Or...........Colin Cowturd

 

[sutz]

This is from last September. It makes even less sense now.

 

[pmedic920]

I’m forced to believe articles of this nature are “click bait”.

The evolution process doesn’t even allow me to click

 

[SNDavidson]

ew, sorry no, "journalism" is easy nowadays, type some provocative shit that doesn't make sense, go get a coffee.

 

[seabowl]

I know they are rumors however, if Geno did not play well, then they would’ve been searching for another quarterback. All of it is speculation, however, not all of it is so so far fetched.