How does division strength affect post-season success?

Two of the most successful teams in recent history are the New England Patriots, and the Seattle Seahawks. They are a story of regular season, as well as coaching, contrasts. During our recent runs of success, the Patriots have enjoyed playing in, arguably, the weakest division in the NFL while the Seahawks have faced, arguably, the toughest.

We frequently hear about how playing in the easiest division has paved the way for the Patriots success. At the same time, we frequently hear that iron sharpens iron, and the team that survives the regular season gauntlet of the NFC Best is well prepared for the rigors of the post-season.

What say you? To make it to the Super Bowl, which is better, surviving the gauntlet, or the easy road?

bigskydoc":1pqbozn2 said:

Two of the most successful teams in recent history are the New England Patriots, and the Seattle Seahawks. They are a story of regular season, as well as coaching, contrasts. During our recent runs of success, the Patriots have enjoyed playing in, arguably, the weakest division in the NFL while the Seahawks have faced, arguably, the toughest.

We frequently hear about how playing in the easiest division has paved the way for the Patriots success. At the same time, we frequently hear that iron sharpens iron, and the team that survives the regular season gauntlet of the NFC Best is well prepared for the rigors of the post-season.

What say you? To make it to the Super Bowl, which is better, surviving the gauntlet, or the easy road?

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I think it is more of an injury issue. The more healthy you are, the better your chances.

Also, playing less games by being the top seed helps.

IMO the two biggest non-team related factors that foster success in the NFL are health and schedule.

The Patriots are proof that if you're a good team, you can go to 10 Superbowls in a 20 year period if you're main players stay healthy and you play in a dumpster fire of a division year after year. It's the MAIN reason they continued to get the #1 or #2 seed year after year putting them in perfect position to get to Super Bowls.

So unfortunately no I don't think iron sharpens iron in the NFL. All it does is make the path harder if you're in a tough division, as we've found out over the past 6-7 years as the teams in our division have gotten better.

The Patriots have proven that it is always better to have 6 to 8 free wins every season.

This has more to do with the 2011-2013 Seahawks-49ers tough guy rivalry.

The number of variables makes it difficult to weigh. We're talking about Tom Brady paired with Bill B also playing in a division that has been historically weak. They may have trounced the AFC North, just as much as they did the East, if they played them twice each during the regular season.

The one thing the Hawks have dealt with is more divisional parity with a bit less strength on the coaching side of the ledger. Playing more difficult opponents may (though I cannot confirm) lead to more injuries with tougher play. As has already been alluded to, at the end of the day depth and lack of injuries to star payers (and with that, solid QB play) makes a serious difference going into the post-season.

sdog1981":5tsye3en said:

The Patriots have proven that it is always better to have 6 to 8 free wins every season.

This has more to do with the 2011-2013 Seahawks-49ers tough guy rivalry.

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Right, but put the 2018 Rams in that division, and we probably don't go to the SB with another potential loss or two.

I can't think of one scenario where it's not better to have your divisional opponents stink. Helps your record, helps you rest players in those games at the end of seasons, helps attract free agents inter-divisionally.

A mix is probably best. Easy opponents to get home field and at least one division rival that gives a challenge for playoff preparation. Look at NE. They got a lot of easy wins, yeah, but still got pushed pretty regularly @MIA, by Rex Ryan Jets teams, and by a couple BUF teams.

Playing in games with tough competition makes you mentally tougher to handle adversity and be focused and disciplined I think.

It's clearly best to have the weakest division possible in terms of winning the Super Bowl. A bye and home field advantage are both huge advantages in the playoffs. If Iron smacks against Iron a bunch then you end up with a bunch of injuries and a weaker team down the road.

However, if most fans are honest, they will admit the Super Bowl is not the only thing they care about. I know that sounds like heresy, but consider the great games we've had over the last decade such as the Beast quake game, the Tip, the 2014 Packers game, and many others.

In fact, our regular season win last season @SF was one of the most fun events of the year for me. Should I have traded that experience for a boring game against a terrible opponent, in order to have a 2% better chance of winning the Super Bowl that year? Personally, I'd rather have good games all of the time and just adjust expectations accordingly.

I'd me much happier playing in a weak division. Let's not forget that once you make it to the dance, everyone is 0-0... and anything can happen. Weak or strong division only makes a difference in how hard it is to make the playoffs. The majority of the season for every team is still playing more non-divisional teams.

chris98251":2ekp7hwu said:

Playing in games with tough competition makes you mentally tougher to handle adversity and be focused and disciplined I think.

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The "been there, done that" effect. So true Chris!

Divisional games with tough competition can make the eventual winners of that division mentally prepared for post season providing they aren't physically beat up going in . Injuries are everything in the NFL. IMO

Schedule aside, I think the most important factor is a staff's ability to acquire, coach up, and keep healthy a high degree and depth of roster talent without benefit of the higher draft picks. To be sure, playing in a tough division puts that to the test.

Iron Sharpens Iron....BUT #1 seed with HFA through the playoffs definitely gives you an edge if you want to get to the superbowl. The Patriots have the most success in the last two decades, I think the proof is there that HFA and higher seeds in the playoff matter more (provided you still have a good team) than iron sharpening iron.

In the NFL, playing a "weak" schedule and getting HFA with limited injuries is preferable. Being pro football and not college, you're still playing pro-quality talent every week so you'll be prepared even against an easier schedule (as opposed to say Boise St. playing nobodies all year and then getting completely blindsided by a team with a meaningful talent gap in a bowl game)

The Patriots have shown the way.

Even if you're in a weak division you will still play a first place schedule, having to play the other 3 top teams in the other divisions, and play 1 other division winner in the other conference.

4 first place teams a year is enough, plus the inevitable other good teams that will crop up from time to time on the schedule.

Murderers row schedules lead to injuries and attrition. Being worn out and beat up. What doesn't kill you makes you weaker.

Fortunately, the NFC West is good, but a bit overrated right now. Feasting on NFC East teams. The Niners are merely good at best at this juncture. The Rams haven't won a game outside of the NFC East, and the Cards lost to the Lions and the rebuilding Panthers.

The NFC West is projecting towards being an absolute gauntlet in 2021, though.

I do believe that iron sharpens iron. It's just plain to see that you don't have to necessarily do it within the division.

Patriots, while having a supremely weak division -- used non conference/intra conference teams in that manner. Whether it was Pittsburgh, Baltimore or Denver (or us). It's important to have competitors that you have to stay in front of. But ideally, you can fulfill that need with the added advantage of having a bank of easy wins in your division.

Fade":xm9deia7 said:

Even if you're in a weak division you will still play a first place schedule, having to play the other 3 top teams in the other divisions, and play 1 other division winner in the other conference.
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QFT

Well, the TERRIBLE Cowboys are 2-4 and poised to win their divisioin. So they're in a position to try things... new players, new coaches, whatever. Who's to say that their D and their O-line doesn't get it all together at the end? Not saying something crazy like they will, but the fact that they have a chance to get in... they still have a chance. That's the point.

Both the 80-90's Niners and 00-10's Patriots are excellent examples of showing its far better to be a great team in a crap division than a great team in a tough division.

You'll play a couple conference games that will sharpen your iron every year. It's far better to be a healthy top seed in the end.