Cause of Broncos offense struggle identified by John63

chrispy

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 21, 2011
Messages
1,086
Reaction score
1,134
1st half: dink/dunk short passes, difficult reads/2nd or third option, and result is they're winning the game but RCW doesn't have the glory- credit was going to OLine and receivers and coach. 2nd half:RCW won't throw in tight windows, holds the ball forever, has a few memorable plays, and huge failures that don't reflect in his QBR and they lose their lead. The game last weekend was a carbon copy of soooo many in Seattle but we all bought the RCW hype. Whatever rating/stats/numbers you want to quote to justify your feelings is your prerogative. Reality is still that RCW can win when he plays a certain style, but he consistently refuses and losses follow.
 

Ozzy

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 3, 2013
Messages
9,308
Reaction score
3,834
FYI, I was rooting FOR Russell, especially THAT game, (see Rookie Contest thread), I bet on R. Wilson and *against* Z. Wilson. I lost. I was actually hoping for Russell to have a good season and show us what he's learned about running "real" NFL offenses, based on progressions, timing, and reading defenses, as opposed to the "Russell Wilson" offense. Not actually rooting against him, just not seeing much actual growth. Makes me really appreciate what Bevell and Carroll (and Schotty) did to build a workable offense around Wilson's strengths in those 2012-2020 years.

I wonder if Sean Payton will go back to the "Russell Wilson Offense" or just go with QB2 Jarrett Stidham.
I know, and you are always fair with your takes. Your last point is spot on, those guys deserve more credit than I was giving them. What they all created was incredible and perfect for Wilson.
 

MyrtleHawk

Can I get a hoyyaaa
Joined
Sep 8, 2021
Messages
2,192
Reaction score
2,056
The Bears and the commanders were willing to give up 3 firsts but those teams were blocked due to the no trade clause. We could have gotten more than what the Broncos gave up. Not complaining though. It was the best trade ever.
I think the irony of the situation is that Russ didn't want to look how he's looking now on either of those teams, and yet he still is looking just as bad as he probably would on either of those teams. Actually, he'd probably be injured a lot more and on the fence of retirement.

Either way, it's ironic.
 

knownone

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 7, 2010
Messages
5,299
Reaction score
2,251
Russ has been okay. The Broncos lack of a consistent running game has magnified his deficiencies. But if you put him in Miami or San Fran, he's in the MVP conversation.
 

chris98251

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 27, 2007
Messages
39,694
Reaction score
1,717
Location
Roy Wa.
Russell is playing catch these days and percentages and completions will be high as well as his rating, now meaningful throws for first downs, touchdowns, well that's for other QB's these days. This is just a way of stat padding and saying look it isn't me, my stats speak for themselves.
 

IndyHawk

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 19, 2013
Messages
8,033
Reaction score
1,669
Our John63 aka DeanDC identified the cause of Broncos' offense struggle: Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. John accused: "Both disappeared for long stretches against the Jets in a 31-21 loss, as Denver’s anemic offense couldn’t get anything going at all in the third quarter and for half of the fourth quarter," He opined that Broncos' quiet 3rd and 4th quarter were the fault of these two receivers.

What's funny is Mark Shereth came out saying those exact words and more
So John is copying other peoples stuff as his own..
I disagree with Marks take however..When the WRs run their routes as the play
calls for and you have a QB who prefers to sandlot out of plays,most WRs are not
like Doug or Tyler that can break off and improvise on the fly.
Me3 is too slow compared to his Young days where he could buy time and make it
work with WRs..People need to be realistic-Those days are over.
 

IndyHawk

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 19, 2013
Messages
8,033
Reaction score
1,669
Wilson has played pretty well though this year. I get we want to dunk on Wilson and his defenders but he isn't the problem and has been the one lone bright spot for them. 11-2 TD/INT with a 106 rating that is actually really good. We just all ignoring that because we have this weird fascination with hating on him post Seattle? I don't get it.
You need to look at TOP and first downs
this dink underneath stuff that he never liked to do is the only
reason his numbers appear decent thanks to SP putting his foot
up his ass..
He still yet holds the ball too long and takes too many sacks no?
but right lookie at these pretty numbers with one win.
 

rcaido

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 5, 2014
Messages
2,213
Reaction score
491
Russell is playing catch these days and percentages and completions will be high as well as his rating, now meaningful throws for first downs, touchdowns, well that's for other QB's these days. This is just a way of stat padding and saying look it isn't me, my stats speak for themselves.

Well here is Wilson deep passing stats ranking, so he's obviously in the top 10 in deep passes. So i wouldn't say he is playing catch.

#7 - Passes 20+
#9 - Passes 30+
#1st - Passes 40+
#1st - Passes 50+

Wilson 3rd down stats
67% completion, 3tds, w/ rating of 110.2 , also has 71yrds rushing averaging 7.1 carry. I think they are rank 14th in conversion, which last year were ranked dead last at 32.

To add that he is 2nd in TDs w/ 11TD to 2Int ratio is actually very good.

All of this doesn't matter because they are 1-4, wins is all that matter, except when Wilson was playing for the Seahawks.
 

Bobblehead

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 10, 2012
Messages
4,231
Reaction score
838
Maybe the receivers are "trotting" and not running hard because when they're open ME3 doesn't get them the ball anyways. Pretty demoralizing isn't it?
You have a point, it's hard to find Lockett whenn he's nowhere near.
 

olyfan63

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 17, 2012
Messages
5,726
Reaction score
1,772
I know, and you are always fair with your takes. Your last point is spot on, those guys deserve more credit than I was giving them. What they all created was incredible and perfect for Wilson.
Thank you, I appreciate that, I try to be fair on my takes on Russell; I'd rather be "accurate" than "right", and sometimes the evidence compels me to change my take to be accurate. I think a lot of us, at least me, are trying to re-frame and better understand Russell's legacy and time in Seattle, and the Carroll-Wilson-OCs relationship, now that we've seen Russell in Denver for a full season-plus, in a totally different environment.

We've seen LOB-SB 2012-2014 players show up more and more, and share different takes on Russell, Carroll, and the team dynamics during the glory years. We've seen Pete and Shane bring Geno up to speed and have Geno perform at a near-elite level, with possibly still significant upside, making it clear that it wasn't "Russell carrying the team despite Carroll". We've seen Russell in Denver fail to make basic, obvious reads that cost his team the game (the KJ Hamler helmet-throw play) and generally perform way below expectations. We've seen Russell's sack numbers match or exceed what they were in Seattle, so maybe the Seattle O-Line wasn't the huge problem Russell called it out as being.

We all saw Russell lead the team to 2 Super Bowls, and win 1. We all experienced the heartbreak of the SB49 last-second loss, and for me, grieving that loss, truly understanding it, and coming to terms with it has been a multi-year process. Then we watched season after season where the team just couldn't get over the hump, something that we had, the "secret sauce" that led us to back-to-back Super Bowls, just wasn't there anymore.

To me, multiple things here are all true at the same time.

Russell WAS absolutely elite at what his game is, scrambling, off-script football, read-option runs, and picking out a couple matchups, pre-snap, and only throwing if the window is there, outside-the-numbers deep throws, and especially, LIMITING TURNOVERS. Pete and Bevell crafted an offense around Russell's specific strengths, with the factor of having BeastMode and a run game the D had to respect at all times. That offense could score against any defense in the league. Teams could have the perfect defense called and Russell would often improvise a QB scramble, scramble drill or sandlot play that defeated the opponent's defense. The Legion of Boom was an all-time elite defense, and the mix of Russell, Beastmode, a balanced offense, and that elite defense were all required elements during those glory years of back-to-back conference championships. We absolutely should ALWAYS appreciate and revere Russell for his key part in those glory years. And also appreciate Pete, Bevell, John Schneider, and all the other players and coaches and Seahawks staff that led to those incredible years.

Outside of his perfect fit with the 2012-2014 Seahawks, Russell has always had some weaknesses in his game, and now circumstances are exposing those. It also seems that Russell came to see himself as bigger than the team, going to ownership to ask them to dump Pete (and John?) and build the team around him. That arrogance, narcissism, and "alternate reality" that Russell carries around in his head is why a lot of us, including me, seem to have a love-hate attitude towards Russell.
 
OP
OP
toffee

toffee

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 9, 2016
Messages
10,710
Reaction score
6,878
Location
SoCal Desert
Russ has been okay. The Broncos lack of a consistent running game has magnified his deficiencies. But if you put him in Miami or San Fran, he's in the MVP conversation.
Wilson was right when he says that Broncos could easily be 4-1; but one could also argue that without the ball mismanagement by the Bears, they should be 0-5.

A few things analytic bureaus found out:
  1. Broncos invested heavily on their OL, and Wilson has been enjoying 2.7 sec of pocket time, one of the most in the league, in comparison: Mahomes and Geno 2.4 sec., Goff 2.3 sec., Tua 2.1 sec., Burrow 2.0 sec., Plenty of time for Hero ball.
  2. WRs dropped balls, that must be the problem right? Chiefs so far dropped 11, Broncos? 2, Hawks 4.
  3. OK, got to be fumbles? ummm Jaguar leads with 13, Broncos at 7, Chief at 5. Wilson dropped 3 of those 7?
    https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-fumbles-by-team-leaders-in-the-nfl-2023
  4. QB Sacks, Wilson had 2.7 sec pocket time but he is one of the most sacked QB at 15 sacks.
  5. Poor passes, Wilson is the 12th worst in the league at 24.
So here, a QB with plenty of the time the pocket, not much pressure but suffer high sack rate, lots of poor passes, and fumbles.
 
Last edited:

olyfan63

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 17, 2012
Messages
5,726
Reaction score
1,772
Well here is Wilson deep passing stats ranking, so he's obviously in the top 10 in deep passes. So i wouldn't say he is playing catch.

#7 - Passes 20+
#9 - Passes 30+
#1st - Passes 40+
#1st - Passes 50+

Wilson 3rd down stats
67% completion, 3tds, w/ rating of 110.2 , also has 71yrds rushing averaging 7.1 carry. I think they are rank 14th in conversion, which last year were ranked dead last at 32.

To add that he is 2nd in TDs w/ 11TD to 2Int ratio is actually very good.

All of this doesn't matter because they are 1-4, wins is all that matter, except when Wilson was playing for the Seahawks.
The numbers suggest Russell is playing better this year. The Denver defense is notably worse than last year, possibly due to salary cap constraints related to Russell's contract, that limit what talent they can pay and retain. It's probably a fair argument that Zach Wilson was more clutch than Russell in the Jets game, because Russell going against the Jets defense is much harder than Zach Wilson going against the Broncos defense that gave up a 70-burger to Miami. Zach Wilson got a bunch of crucial 3rd down conversions, with passes, that he simply wasn't supposed to get, and hadn't been getting. Russell failed repeatedly on potentially difference-making 3rd downs. The Jets D picked up Zach Wilson after he threw that crucial pick. The Denver D generally didn't get the ball back quickly to give Russell more chances.

It's going to take a few more games to see if Russell is getting it done. Meantime, the team he leads is 1-4, and could easily be 0-5.
 

Lagartixa

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 6, 2020
Messages
1,800
Reaction score
3,156
Location
Taboão da Serra, SP, Brazil
Thank you, I appreciate that, I try to be fair on my takes on Russell; I'd rather be "accurate" than "right", and sometimes the evidence compels me to change my take to be accurate. I think a lot of us, at least me, are trying to re-frame and better understand Russell's legacy and time in Seattle, and the Carroll-Wilson-OCs relationship, now that we've seen Russell in Denver for a full season-plus, in a totally different environment.

We've seen LOB-SB 2012-2014 players show up more and more, and share different takes on Russell, Carroll, and the team dynamics during the glory years. We've seen Pete and Shane bring Geno up to speed and have Geno perform at a near-elite level, with possibly still significant upside, making it clear that it wasn't "Russell carrying the team despite Carroll". We've seen Russell in Denver fail to make basic, obvious reads that cost his team the game (the KJ Hamler helmet-throw play) and generally perform way below expectations. We've seen Russell's sack numbers match or exceed what they were in Seattle, so maybe the Seattle O-Line wasn't the huge problem Russell called it out as being.

We all saw Russell lead the team to 2 Super Bowls, and win 1. We all experienced the heartbreak of the SB49 last-second loss, and for me, grieving that loss, truly understanding it, and coming to terms with it has been a multi-year process. Then we watched season after season where the team just couldn't get over the hump, something that we had, the "secret sauce" that led us to back-to-back Super Bowls, just wasn't there anymore.

To me, multiple things here are all true at the same time.

Russell WAS absolutely elite at what his game is, scrambling, off-script football, read-option runs, and picking out a couple matchups, pre-snap, and only throwing if the window is there, outside-the-numbers deep throws, and especially, LIMITING TURNOVERS. Pete and Bevell crafted an offense around Russell's specific strengths, with the factor of having BeastMode and a run game the D had to respect at all times. That offense could score against any defense in the league. Teams could have the perfect defense called and Russell would often improvise a QB scramble, scramble drill or sandlot play that defeated the opponent's defense. The Legion of Boom was an all-time elite defense, and the mix of Russell, Beastmode, a balanced offense, and that elite defense were all required elements during those glory years of back-to-back conference championships. We absolutely should ALWAYS appreciate and revere Russell for his key part in those glory years. And also appreciate Pete, Bevell, John Schneider, and all the other players and coaches and Seahawks staff that led to those incredible years.

Outside of his perfect fit with the 2012-2014 Seahawks, Russell has always had some weaknesses in his game, and now circumstances are exposing those. It also seems that Russell came to see himself as bigger than the team, going to ownership to ask them to dump Pete (and John?) and build the team around him. That arrogance, narcissism, and "alternate reality" that Russell carries around in his head is why a lot of us, including me, seem to have a love-hate attitude towards Russell.

☝️ That's the best comment I've seen on this complex subject. Nice job.
 

Lagartixa

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 6, 2020
Messages
1,800
Reaction score
3,156
Location
Taboão da Serra, SP, Brazil
Wilson was right when he says that Broncos could easily be 4-1; but one could also argue that without the ball mismanagement by the Bears, they should be 0-5.

A few things analytic bureaus found out:
  1. Broncos invested heavily on their OL, and Wilson has been enjoying 2.7 sec of pocket time, one of the most in the league, in comparison: Mahomes and Geno 2.4 sec., Goff 2.3 sec., Tua 2.1 sec., Burrow 2.0 sec., Plenty of time for Hero ball.
  2. WRs dropped balls, that must be the problem right? Chiefs so far dropped 11, Broncos? 2, Hawks 4.
  3. OK, got to be fumbles? ummm Jaguar leads with 13, Broncos at 7, Chief at 5. Wilson dropped 3 of those 7?
    https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-fumbles-by-team-leaders-in-the-nfl-2023
  4. QB Sacks, Wilson had 2.7 sec pocket time but he is one of the most sacked QB at 15 sacks.
  5. Poor passes, Wilson is the 3rd worst in the league at 24, only Bryce Young 25, and Mac Jone 26 were worse.
So here, a QB with plenty of the time the pocket, not much pressure but suffer high sack rate, lots of poor passes, and fumbles.

Wow, two unusually interesting comments on this subject in a row in this thread. This one is very informative and thoroughly destroys the @John63/Deandc arguments blaming everyone else. It also kinda wrecks the idea that Wilson isn't at least part of the problem this year in Denver, at least so far.
 

knownone

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 7, 2010
Messages
5,299
Reaction score
2,251
Wilson was right when he says that Broncos could easily be 4-1; but one could also argue that without the ball mismanagement by the Bears, they should be 0-5.

A few things analytic bureaus found out:
  1. Broncos invested heavily on their OL, and Wilson has been enjoying 2.7 sec of pocket time, one of the most in the league, in comparison: Mahomes and Geno 2.4 sec., Goff 2.3 sec., Tua 2.1 sec., Burrow 2.0 sec., Plenty of time for Hero ball.
  2. WRs dropped balls, that must be the problem right? Chiefs so far dropped 11, Broncos? 2, Hawks 4.
  3. OK, got to be fumbles? ummm Jaguar leads with 13, Broncos at 7, Chief at 5. Wilson dropped 3 of those 7?
    https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-fumbles-by-team-leaders-in-the-nfl-2023
  4. QB Sacks, Wilson had 2.7 sec pocket time but he is one of the most sacked QB at 15 sacks.
  5. Poor passes, Wilson is the 3rd worst in the league at 24, only Bryce Young 25, and Mac Jone 26 were worse.
So here, a QB with plenty of the time the pocket, not much pressure but suffer high sack rate, lots of poor passes, and fumbles.
Pocket time is a somewhat misleading stat, more dependent on the scheme and QB mobility than the relative quality of an O-line. That's a fault of how pressures are measured.

Wilson is #2 in pressured throws. I suspect that's because he holds onto the ball, but it's worth considering.

Finally, poor passes are subjective, so it's hard to utilize that stat because there is such a wide variance in how it's reported. For example, PlayerProfiler and PFF have him near the bottom of the league in similar metrics. So, what constitutes a poor pass? Also, according to your source, he's not the third worst; he's the 12th worst.
 
OP
OP
toffee

toffee

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 9, 2016
Messages
10,710
Reaction score
6,878
Location
SoCal Desert
Pocket time is a somewhat misleading stat, more dependent on the scheme and QB mobility than the relative quality of an O-line. That's a fault of how pressures are measured.

Wilson is #2 in pressured throws. I suspect that's because he holds onto the ball, but it's worth considering.

Finally, poor passes are subjective, so it's hard to utilize that stat because there is such a wide variance in how it's reported. For example, PlayerProfiler and PFF have him near the bottom of the league in similar metrics. So, what constitutes a poor pass? Also, according to your source, he's not the third worst; he's the 12th worst.
I just re-checked, and you are right, he's the 12th. As for pocket time, this outfit defined it as time between snap and throw or pressure, so Wilson enjoyed 2.7 seconds before pressure.
 

knownone

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 7, 2010
Messages
5,299
Reaction score
2,251
I just re-checked, and you are right, he's the 12th. As for pocket time, this outfit defined it as time between snap and throw or pressure, so Wilson enjoyed 2.7 seconds before pressure.
For sure.

The thing with pressure is that it's a subjective measurement primarily based on the defender's distance from the QB. So, for example, an offense predicated around a deep passing attack with a mobile QB will (theoretically) add fractions of a second to that statistic. That's why most of the QBs in Wilson's ballpark—Fields, Watson, Love, and Hurts—fit that rough profile. Now, that doesn't mean you are wrong with your assessment. In fact, I think you're probably right: Denver's line is pretty good. But it's not necessarily indicative of his failings as QB. He's been solidly average in most areas.
 

chrispy

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 21, 2011
Messages
1,086
Reaction score
1,134
Russ has been okay. The Broncos lack of a consistent running game has magnified his deficiencies. But if you put him in Miami or San Fran, he's in the MVP conversation.
Uhhhh....he was in the MVP conversation in Seattle more than once...but he forced his way out. He sabotaged himself and if he was in SF or Miami there's no reason to think it wouldn't look the same. He's now only in the conversation for Most Vain Person.
 
OP
OP
toffee

toffee

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 9, 2016
Messages
10,710
Reaction score
6,878
Location
SoCal Desert
Uhhhh....he was in the MVP conversation in Seattle more than once...but he forced his way out. He sabotaged himself and if he was in SF or Miami there's no reason to think it wouldn't look the same. He's now only in the conversation for Most Vain Person.

Wilson is his own man, no someone who will just follow an OC, 4 of those tried, and Wilson is still Wilson. So the question ought to be: Are SF or Miami playing RussBall? If they are, Russell Wilson would be the best fit, totally MVP.
 

rcaido

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 5, 2014
Messages
2,213
Reaction score
491
Uhhhh....he was in the MVP conversation in Seattle more than once...but he forced his way out. He sabotaged himself and if he was in SF or Miami there's no reason to think it wouldn't look the same. He's now only in the conversation for Most Vain Person.
I'm pretty sure in the storyline, Schneider tried trading/replacing Russ not once but twice before Russ put the ultimatum of choosing himself or Pete. So far Seattle has won the trade by a landslide as we got some great rookies out of the deal. Wilson seem to be having a bounce back year but the Broncos record is worse then last season. The issue this year is not on Wilson.
 

Latest posts

Top