2021 Free Agents

[Own The West]

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/seattle-seahawks/

Not to supplant Jammerhawks' excellent roster tracker, I was nevertheless curious how our roster stands at season's end.

Here's our free agents by position:
QB: Geno Smith
RB: Carlos Hyde, Chris Carson, Nick Bellore
WR: Phillip Dorsett, Josh Gordon, David Moore
TE: Greg Olsen, Jacob Hollister
OL: Cedric Ogbuehi, Ethan Pocic, Kyle Fuller, Jordan Simmons
DE: Bruce Irvin, Benson Mayowa, Branden Jackson, Damontre Moore
DT: Brian Mone, Poona Ford
LB: KJ Wright, Shaquem Griffin
CB: Quinton Dunbar, Keiko Thorpe, Shaquill Griffin, Ryan Neal, Jayson Stanley
S: Damarious Randall, Delano Hill, Linden Stephens

Carson, KJ, Shaquill, and maybe Ford/Mayowa look to be the most spendy to keep. The cap is going down by $20M in 2021 too, so even though we generally plan well we're going to be on a budget. Fortunately, the rest of the league is too.

If Shaq wants #1 CB money, I think we have to let him walk. He's solid, but not dominant. Maybe we get a hometown discount if we keep his brother. Maybe we let them both walk so they can continue their Hallmark movie story somewhere else. Q. Dunbar should be much cheaper, but then again he was outplayed by both DJ Reed and Flowers. Maybe letting Quill go and letting Dunbar try to regain his form is the way to go. Best case is you get a 2022 comp pick because all 3 balled out on the cheap....

Also, if KJ wants to cash in for big money as a last hurrah, he'll probably have to do it elsewhere. Love him, but at 32 with Jordyn Brooks and *gulp* Cody Barton/Bruce Irvin(?) ready for snaps. It will be time to turn the page.

I have no idea what Carson is going to want. He has a big "when healthy" next to any accomplishments he wants to claim. This seems like a good year for an incentive-laden prove it deal. Caps' down and he needs to stay healthy for anyone to give him a long term, let alone big money deal.

I think Ford we'll keep. He does a dirty job that doesn't get much acclaim very well. He's an RFA too, so he should be a safe bet to return.

Mayowa was our 2nd best DE this year, but not a game changer. Still, he plays a premium position and somebody may throw money at him we're not willing to match. Perhaps the mythical Darrell Taylor has been perfecting his Aikido training at a secret dojo in Florida too and we're only looking at him, Collier, Green, Dunlap, and Robinson next year.

Whatever the choices we make, I think we'll be saying goodbye to some fan favorites. We've got 9 starters coming up in 2022 as well, so the cost cutting is going to have to start sooner than later.

 

[MO Hawk]

QB – No opinion
RB - Carson gone, Hyde?
WR – Gordon probably done in the NFL
TE’s – both overpaid
OL – Do we want Pocic back? Simmons not bad
DE – No opinion
DT – Need Poona back, at the right price
LB – KJ probably hard to keep, Griffin?

 

[Zap90]

QB – No opinion
RB - Carson gone, Hyde?
WR – Gordon probably done in the NFL
TE’s – both overpaid
OL – Do we want Pocic back? Simmons not bad
DE – No opinion
DT – Need Poona back, at the right price
LB – KJ probably hard to keep, Griffin?

Hollister is not overpaid he is essential

 

[Teahawks]

Hollister can't block, is undersized, and basically gets no YAC.

If you can't block you better be Antonio Gates level of athletic, and that he is not.

He's an average to below average player who did some nice things at times.

 

[jammerhawk]

Can’t see the team keeping Iupati, Pocic, Olsen, Hollister, and maybe Moore. I can see the team and Carson not being able to reach a deal and he will move on and play a half season/year elsewhere.

On D some hard decisions will have to happen, and many players will be told to shop the market and see if the team will match or something similar. Somehow doubt either Griffin is paid or even kept. It will be close with KJ although he played very well this season. Sort of expect Irvin back on slightly better terms. The DLine needs more help and many of the depth guys are likely gone as some will get better deals elsewhere.

The team has interior OLine needs (LG &C), a true feature RB, & more speed on O.

On D the CB situation will need to be strengthened perhaps Dunbar might be re-signed to a short term ‘Prove it’ deal, The team will need to add a the position.

I think the team will want to keep Dunlap and I’d be surprised if they can’t get a market value type deal done.

JS is going to be busy and will need a few things to go right.everything is going to have to be hugely backloaded contract wise.

 

[QuahHawk]

Some of these are Restricted FA's

Moone
Ford
Shaqueem
Ryan Neal

 

[jammerhawk]

I’d expect Shaquem is gone from that group. Neither Griffin will be kept, as they are a twofer thing. The other three are all likely kept although their contracts might not be tender deals.

 

[Appyhawk]

"JS is going to be busy "
Got that right. The way the upcoming year shapes up it's one of those where JS will need to earn his new money.

 

[Attyla the Hawk]

I'd say most of those will be gone.

One thing to consider at this stage. Every team is in the same boat. This UFA group is going to explode as teams cut salary to get under the cap. If you're a replacement level player, which many on this list are, there are going to be 2-5 street free agent options out there to fill those at close to vet min levels. Players we would probably see as genuine upgrades for those lost.

This offseason is going to be pretty wild. I'd expect a lot of movement, and a lot of restructures to smooth out the 2021 cap hit over the next 3 years across the league. I'm not particularly concerned about the uncertainty, and Seattle is actually in an ok position having so many expired contracts to fill. The quality of talent out there should be outstanding. We won't be in the conversation for top end name talent. But we usually don't swim in those waters anyway. JS should be in his element with a talent rich environment to work with.

The players that might be cut or traded to add cap space is limited.

Player / Dead money/ Cap relief / Key dates and triggers

B. Wagner: 7.5M / 9.6M / Feb 12 - 5M base salary guarantees
D. Brown: 2.0M / 11.3M / No triggers
T. Lockett: 2.2M / 12.7M / No triggers
Q. Diggs: 0 / 5.5M / No triggers
J. Adams: 0 / 9.8M / March 18 - Entire salary guaranteed
C. Dunlap: 0 / 14M / March 21 - 3M base guaranteed

One would have to think that 2 of these probably are gone. I could see up to 4 of them. It would depend on how aggressive the team is in it's retooling effort. Obviously the biggest date is Feb. 12. Wagner conceivably would be the first domino to fall if we are in fact retooling. His dead money is the highest, but we have already pre drafted a rookie contract replacement with Brooks. So we should get a quick indication of how this offseason is going to go in about 4 weeks.

The others Seattle can be fairly patient with. And can dynamically change relative to the UFA market as it begins to unfold. I'd expect to see some pretty eye popping cuts in the week after the super bowl. Since a LOT of teams are going to be cutting players ahead of guarantee dates well in advance of the UFA signing period. And it's worth remembering, that teams do not have to wait until the new league year to sign street UFAs cut in this manner. The offseason is going to start in mid February.

Do not expect to be trading any of these players away. The trade market should be ice cold. If deals are done, it'll be either for QBs, or really for late day 3 picks, maybe not even in this year's draft. Because the players on offer will have big contracts that will eat up valuable cap space. The contracts will be positively radioactive.

 

[Attyla the Hawk]

Key potential Cap casualty street UFAs (> 5M cap relief, key dates) for at risk teams:

Buffalo ~2M cap space:

S. Diggs. 12.1M Mar 21 full guarantee
M. Addison: 6.2M Mar 22 800K guarantee
J. Brown: 8.1M Mar 15 500K guarantee
J. Hughes: 7.3M Mar 22 1M guarantee
J. Poyer: 5.8M Mar 22 4.7M guarantee
V. Butler: 6.8M Mar 22 1M guarantee
Q. Jefferson: 8M Mar 21 1M guarantee
M. Hyde: 5.1M Mar 22 500K guarantee


Tennessee ~ -7.3M cap space:

Taylor Lewan $9,5M
Malcolm Butler $10,2M Mar 18 500k guarantee
Rodger Saffold $7,5M
Ben Jones $6,2M
Adoree' Jackson $10,2M Mar 18 Full guarantee


Chicago ~ -8.6M cap space:

Akiem Hicks $10,05M
Kyle Fuller $11,0M
Charles Leno Jr. $6,2M
Bobby Massie $5,4M
Jimmy Graham $7,0M


Minnesota ~ -11.6M cap space

Adam Thielen $8,100,000 Mar 15 9M base guarantee
Anthony Barr $7,262,500 Mar 15 7.1M base guarantee
Harrison Smith $10,250,000
Danielle Hunter $5,750,000 Mar 16 3.3M base guarantee
Kyle Rudolph $5,100,000
Riley Reiff $11,750,000 Mar 19 5M roster bonus guarantee


Kansas City ~ -17.2M cap space

Tyreek Hill $10,5M
Tyrann Mathieu $14,8M
Eric Fisher $11,4M


Houston ~ -18.7M cap space

J.J. Watt $17,500,000
David Johnson $6,712,500
Nick Martin $6,250,000
Brandin Cooks $12,000,000
Bradley Roby $8,253,676
Benardrick McKinney $7,000,000
Duke Johnson $5,025,000


Las Vegas ~ -19.3M cap space

Derek Carr $19,625,000
Trent Brown $14,000,000
Tyrell Williams $11,600,000 Mar 20 1M guarantee
Gabe Jackson $9,600,000
Lamarcus Joyner $8,700,000
Marcus Mariota $11,350,000
Darren Waller $6,370,000


Pittsburgh ~ -21.98M cap space

Ben Roethlisberger $19,000,000 Mar 17 15M guarantee
Stephon Tuitt $5,659,250
David DeCastro $8,750,000
Joe Haden $7,000,000
Maurkice Pouncey $8,000,000
Steven Nelson $8,250,000
Vance McDonald $5,200,000
Eric Ebron $6,000,000 Mar 22 500K guarantee
T.J. Watt $10,089,000 Mar 18 Full guarantee


Los Angeles Rams ~ -22.7M cap space Added anyone over 1M savings Pretty much everyone or MAJOR restructures.

Tyler Higbee $2,675,000
Andrew Whitworth $5,333,293 Mar 20 2.5M guarantee
Rob Havenstein $5,170,000
Johnny Hekker $2,608,000
Michael Brockers $4,666,666 Mar 22 6.5M guarantee
Austin Corbett $1,505,235


Green Bay ~ -24.7M cap space Added anyone over 1M savings

Aaron Rodgers $5,516,000 Mar 15 6.8M guarantee
Za'Darius Smith $11,000,000 Mar 15 5M guarantee
Davante Adams $13,250,000
Preston Smith $8,000,000 Mar 15 4M guarantee
Adrian Amos $4,300,000 Mar 15 1.5M guarantee
Billy Turner $3,550,000 Mar 15 1M guarantee
Dean Lowry $3,300,000
Ricky Wagner $4,250,000
Christian Kirksey $5,609,375 Mar 20 1.5M guarantee
Mason Crosby $2,500,000 Mar 20 1.25M guarantee
Josh Jackson $1,333,104
Lucas Patrick $1,450,000


Atlanta ~ -32.7M cap space Pretty much everyone AND major restructures

Grady Jarrett $5,333,000
Jake Matthews $1,360,800
Ricardo Allen $6,250,000
Dante Fowler Jr. $3,333,332
James Carpenter $4,041,666
Allen Bailey $4,500,000
Tyeler Davison $2,236,666
Isaiah Oliver $1,112,271
Josh Harris $1,075,000


Philadelphia ~ -52.2M cap space Added everyone over 900K Not nearly enough. Added possible trade candidates

Fletcher Cox $2,845,182
Zach Ertz $4,702,000
DeSean Jackson $4,857,000
Derek Barnett $10,051,000
Dallas Goedert $1,246,947
Avonte Maddox $920,000
Josh Sweat $920,000
Matt Pryor $920,000
Genard Avery $920,000
Jordan Mailata $920,000
Craig James $920,000
Marquise Goodwin $4,281,250

Trade:

Brandon Brooks $2,303,528
Darius Slay $6,000,000
Javon Hargrave $5,400,000
Rodney McLeod $2,659,375


New Orleans ~ -96.2M Entire list is about 9M short

Drew Brees $13,500,000
Cameron Jordan $2,000,000
Terron Armstead $6,675,000
Malcom Brown $5,000,000
Nick Easton $6,000,000
Darshon Lattimore $10,244,000
Taysom Hill $5,000,000
Thomas Morstead $2,500,000
Wil Lutz $1,550,000
Latavius Murray $2,500,000
Janoris Jenkins $7,000,000
Emmanuel Sanders $4,000,000
David Onyemata $2,500,000
Patrick Robinson $2,600,000
Josh Hill $2,605,000
Ryan Ramczyk $11,064,000
Kwon Alexander $13,400,000

 

[SantaClaraHawk]

I’d expect Shaquem is gone from that group. Neither Griffin will be kept, as they are a twofer thing. The other three are all likely kept although their contracts might not be tender deals.

If Quill could be persuaded to sign on at say 6M as long as we took Quem at vet minimum then we'd get our serviceable cb plus someone that's in most of the st snaps for less than 7m.

Quill doesn't take that hometown discount, I guess we all go on the carousel and pick through each other's 9m cbs but no one offering that money will be offering even more on Quem.

Quem's pretty much only shot in the league is to have sea pay him minimum to be a serviceable "special teams ace" that nonetheless is taking a spot on the 53 and is seen as only an emergency or gadget replacement on the d. And the only way that happens is if Quill takes a lower salary due to keeping Quem on and them together.

 

[massari]

They can create a ton more cap room though extensions.

Projected Cap Gains:

Carlos Dunlap $10,020,000
Tyler Lockett $8,968,000
Duane Brown $7,420,000
Jamal Adams $7,096,000
Quandre Diggs $3,568,000
Brandon Shell $1,668,000
Jarran Reed $6,068,000

 

[Vetamur]

There is not likely to be a normal off season.. so, compared to most years teams are probably going to be more inclined to try to resign some of the marginal players who know their system. Geno Smith, for example, probably would want to go somewhere he has a better chance to play..but I would say he will be back since we wont want to bring a new QB who wont get OTAs et al.

Going to see more 1 year deals or 2 year deals than usual too I guess.. players banking on the salary cap going back up post-covid19.

Possibly we some some ill advised hold outs from players and/or agents not fully digesting what the salary cap reduction means for them..

 

[sdog1981]

The other problem is we don't know what the cap will be next season. There could be some wild player movement this off season depending on how little the cap grows.

 

[Zap90]

The other problem is we don't know what the cap will be next season. There could be some wild player movement this off season depending on how little the cap grows.

Cap's going down.

From 198.1 to 176-180 mill.

 

[ivotuk]

Nice post. Below are my choices, with Chris Carson, Mayowa, Branden Jackson, and Poona Ford being my only "must haves."

Here's our free agents by position:

RB: Chris Carson
WR: David Moore
TE: Jacob Hollister
OL: Ethan Pocic, Kyle Fuller, Jordan Simmons
DE: Bruce Irvin, Benson Mayowa, Branden Jackson, Damontre Moore(minimum deal)
DT: Brian Mone, Poona Ford
LB: KJ Wright(don't overpay), Shaquem Griffin
CB: Quinton Dunbar, Neiko Thorpe, Shaquill Griffin(Minimum deal), Ryan Neal
S: Damarious Randall, Delano Hill (both minimum deals

 

[Zap90]

Nice post. Below are my choices, with Chris Carson, Mayowa, Branden Jackson, and Poona Ford being my only "must haves."

Here's our free agents by position:

RB: Chris Carson
WR: David Moore
TE: Jacob Hollister
OL: Ethan Pocic, Kyle Fuller, Jordan Simmons
DE: Bruce Irvin, Benson Mayowa, Branden Jackson, Damontre Moore(minimum deal)
DT: Brian Mone, Poona Ford
LB: KJ Wright(don't overpay), Shaquem Griffin
CB: Quinton Dunbar, Neiko Thorpe, Shaquill Griffin(Minimum deal), Ryan Neal
S: Damarious Randall, Delano Hill (both minimum deals

:roll: If you really think most of them going to take minimum deals.

 

[getnasty]

Wonder if the might try structure some short term deals that pay more in the back half of the contract. I can't see them cutting Dunlap, Wagner, Brown or Lockett this year but for sure could see them gone in 2022.

 

[Maelstrom787]

I'd love to see them terminate Reed, or trade him if there's any interest. He's not worth the double-digit millions. He gets clean-up sacks, but he's not consistently a great player, and he has the contract of a serious contributor. That money can definitely serve the team better if spread out to retain some guys. Poona is the more promising cornerstone DT.

 

[Jerhawk]

Only player on that list I would like back is KJ

The rest of them can walk