John63
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Attyla the Hawk":i4ot7o31 said:John63":i4ot7o31 said:Okay and if Murray is a bust then we suck, so you want to do this taking a chance on an unknown over a known. HMMM
Ok a few things:
1. Not taking Murray doesn't improve our chances at avoiding a bust. You can bust at any position. Even DT (2017) or RB (2018)
2. You presume that taking Murray requires we get rid of Russell. That's untrue. Having Russell means you have the luxury of taking (and busting) on a QB with no impact at all. Outside of the busted pick. Which Seattle has established they are prone to do like 4 of the last 5 years.
3. QBs are coming into this league more prepared than ever to start and succeed straight away. This has been going on for quite some time now. Opinions on QB risk tend to be hardened depending on when someone started following the sport rigorously. It's very common to see general opinion (and anxiety) revolving around 90s/00s results of how risky and poor QB development translated to NFL success.
But this game has evolved. From pee wee on up. QBs that enter this league now, have been taught better. And regimes in the high school (and preceding that) throw vastly more often than they did when it was all about the running back. The QB stable at UW has players that passed far more than they ran almost all the way through the ranks (maybe Yankoff excepted?). Good college QBs have already been throwing and learning at a ridiculously expedited rate. There are more good QBs now in college. And they come even further prepared into the NFL.
Additionally, the NFL has also adapted. Softened the transition on purpose. Tailoring offenses to be more familiar with new QBs. Instead of forcing a round rookie QB peg into a square, rigid, intractable offense -- they work with their existing knowledge base better and smooth the learning curve over time.
So QBs aren't nearly the risk that our common tribal knowledge tends to expect. In every draft it seems there are 2-4 QBs capable of taking their teams to the playoffs. Or able to vie for conference championships during their rookie contract. Remember when Wilson was such an outlier (team with a rookie deal QB in the playoffs) that it was actually a thing that the national narrative picked up? Now there are like 5-6 teams in the playoffs with QBs on rookie deals. It's not only not rare anymore. It's commonplace and likely to accelerate.
John63":i4ot7o31 said:Let me spell this out
With Wilson, we know we are in the hunt every year. Without Wilson, we need to HOPE we can put together a top 5 Defense, keep a top 5 run game and hope Murray Turns into at least an above avg QB. that's a lot of hopping over a known.
Well spelled out. Let's read between the lines some then.
With Wilson (at his current salary), the only hope to put together a top 5 defense is to limit your number of 5M+ contracts on the defensive side to no more than 3. And no 10M+ contracts. Has to be smaller. That'd mean no earl. No Wagner. No Clark. Reed has to go after this year. And of course no LOB either except in their rookie deal incarnation.
At his expected price in 2019, that restriction draws much tighter.
Additionally, you are grossly limited in how you allocate to offense as well. You can't really afford more than 35M+ in your OL spend. You have to have good/not great talent there. And it goes without saying you're going to have rookie deal RBs. Also, you will need to be judicious in WR spend. Baldwin is too expensive if you're trying to have a top 5 rushing attack.
You can do it the Patriots way. But to do so means to not only not pay your guys. But you have to play the Comp pick game every year. Add street UFAs only. And trade away top talents at the ends of their rookie deals a year early to recoup picks. And of course kill it on the development end.
The reality is, Seattle (and by that I mean Pete), wants a top 5 rushing attack and top 5 defense by design. However paying 20M (or 35M) for a QB makes that task virtually impossible without some radical steps made. It would have to be far more radical than what NE does because Brady takes a massive discount to stick with the team.
Seattle hasn't shown the ability to manage the other 52 players on the team in such a way as to allow for a top market QB. Which is particularly difficult since Seattle doesn't both pay and rely on it's franchise quality (and paid) QB to win games. It's a paradigm mismatch that ultimately serves to impede itself.
If one presumes that Pete is going to be around for the next three years. Then one has to concede his brand of winning. And how does that possibility look when one has a huge cap crater at QB. I assume that Pete is here to stay until 2021. So I know what to expect in terms of how this club is going to be designed. It's not going to leverage Wilson's quality in full. It's going to try to run and defend and pass on occasion. And it'd going to have to do that with a huge disparity in cap space and high attrition rates for top shelf talent elsewhere.
It's a constipated effort by design. It seems less risky to add a rookie QB. If he shows he's capable of not losing games while throwing 25 times or less -- then you have the scenario where you have:
Wilson and whatever we pick this year
v.
Rookie QB, 30M+ to spend on the rest of your team, and at least a couple spare 1st round picks that we'll undoubtedly turn into 4-5 day two picks. That's basically a rookie QB, 2 top tier defensive stars and likely 3 other starters. That is not insignificant.
I'm not a fan of losing Wilson. But I also concede that the way Pete wants to build the team is largely incompatible with the cost of keeping Wilson. They are two dynamics competing against one another. And the only break in the impasse is for either Wilson's contract or Pete's team design to leave.
okay I chose not to read this because you obviously did not catch where the OP that said get Murray said get rid of Wilson. So that made alot of your post moot. Also for every QB coming in who you say is better qialified there are 5-10 that dont work. So it is still a HUGE GAMBLE.
