49ers are an 2018-19 threar

[Muzz]

Then why trade him for a 2nd round pick? If bill really thought he was the future, he’d just let him sit until Brady declined instead of getting a pick that may or may not be an actual difference maker. He reminds me of Nick Foles in the amount of success he’s having so early. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

 

[Sports Hernia]

I remember a world beater last year that went 13-3, a beat up Seattle defense made him look like crap today. Once teams get film on a guy and start gameplanning around said players weaknesses sometimes success slows down. Doesn’t matter if it’s Shady Brady, Russell Wilson, last years golden boy Dak Prescott, or this year’s golden boy Jimmy G
Small sample sizes.

These kind of blanket statements always bother me because they ignore highly relevant details.

Let's start with Kaepernick. How did defenses figure him out? Was it the zone-read? Nope. It was his long release and his lack of anticipatory throwing ability.

Defenses began to realize that with Kap's long release and his tendency to need to see the WR open, they could play off the WR and then break as soon as he cocked his arm, knowing they'd get there in time. His four interception game against Arizona is what did it. From then on, Kaepernick was spooked into hesitating constantly, which only made his problems worse. It took an entire year and the right coaching staff to get him functional again.

So what happened? Defenses found a predictable and reliable physical weakness he had (long release) along with a predictable and reliable action (needing to see WRs open before throwing, resulting in his eyes betraying where he wanted to go with the ball). That's when he was "figured out." Now with his passing ability neutralized, defenses could stuff the box and limit his other attributes.



Shady Brady? Dude defenses have not actually figured him out. He is still routinely competing for MVP, and no scheming has yet to predictably and reliably stop him. Why? Because he has no physical or other weakness that is predictably reliable. You can say Brady can't move much, but that isn't a physical handicap for a pocket quarterback. The fact is Brady has no predictable weaknesses. Neither does Drew Brees (other than his height, but his vision neutralizes that weakness), or many other great pocket quarterbacks.




Russell Wilson: Russell has a predictable physical weakness (his height); it will be there every game, and the result is he is not very great at rhythm passing, in particular on the shorter routes. This is, however, rendered irrelevant by his athletic ability. What Russell Wilson presents is a predictable weakness TO THE DEFENSE weak in and weak out. The defense must always be careful in their pass rush every time they play Seattle, and must often spy him. Wilson has not been neutralized by NFL defenses. Even when he's playing badly he makes plays. So yeah, put Wilson in a similar category with Brady. No one has "figured him out" yet because even though defenses know what is coming, by its very nature what he does is unpredictable. No one knows which way he's going to dart, or when he's going to see the WR breaking open, or where on the field. You know it's coming, but it's still unpredictable.



Dak Prescott: His weaknesses have always been known, and they are mechanical and mental. (1) He has poor pocket comfort, (2) he does what Kaepernick does; throws when he sees the WR open rather than anticipating, and throwing to the target rather than leading the target. Defenses didn't suddenly have an epiphany regarding Prescott. This is just what happens when an extremely talented supporting cast carries a mediocre quarterback- unless the crew around him always performs, at some point the lack of ability of the quarterback is going to shine through. Losing Elliot for several games hurt, but nothing really changed in what was known about him.



How about Peyton Manning in the Super Bowl against Seattle? He had a PREDICTABLE physical weakness, and as a result a predictable scheme weakness: declining arm strength. Most of his passes were stretching the defense horizontally close to the line of scrimmage. Seattle exploited this to the full extent. The other weakness he had in that game was that he played against a top 10 all time defense. But the defense knew they had reliable intel about Manning. All his deep passes were within seconds of the snap and only 15-20 yards down field when caught. Using their press defense and cover 3 looks, the Seahawks were easily able to remove this weapon from Manning. Combined with the elite pass rush, the results were as predictable as Manning was.






That post has been all about predictable weaknesses, so far. Those are what defenses need to scheme to exploit a weakness. Here is a guy who had a weakness that defenses could NOT scheme against, but rather had to just stand ready to take advantage of when it occurred:

Brett Favre. He had a huge weakness: he would throw the ball in any window no matter what because he felt he could fit it in. This led to him being the all time interception leader. But it wasn't something a defense could SCHEME for to take advantage of, because no one ever knew when he was going to do something stupid with the ball. But Favre had zero physical weaknesses, or weaknesses that were predictable.



Now, take a look at Garoppolo: He likewise has no predictable physical weaknesses. His arm is adequate. His release is lightning fast, maybe the fastest in the NFL. He doesn't need to set his feet to throw, and he's very quick at going from recognizing the time to throw and making the throw. So, there is nothing physical that a defense can key on (unlike with Kaepernick). That leaves only the possibility of finding some tendency for him regarding throwing the ball, but he's thrown it all over the field his entire career and in college. He is not predictable in where he throws, in particular because he doesn't need to see the WR open before he throws it.

He HAS a weakness, however, which was obvious from the beginning, and it's a potentially crippling one: he takes chances with the ball, just like Favre, except his arm isn't nearly as strong. This weakness will haunt him in the future. However, the key here is that it is an UNPREDICTABLE weakness. No one can anticipate when Jimmy G is going to try to thread the needle into a place he has no business attempting a pass.

The only other possibility for your post to be accurate is if Jimmy G somehow telegraphs where he's going to go with the ball based on a certain coverage or read. However, because of his absurdly fast release, even if he did, defenses will not be able to capitalize on it. Instead, the only predictable weakness defenses will be able to exploit are SCHEME weaknesses (like what the Patriots did to Seattle in the Super Bowl based on the formation at the goal line on the INT to Butler). Say, for example, if the 49ers always run a slant out of stacked/staggered formations (something Shanahan has always liked doing). Then a defender could anticipate the throw before his arm is even cocked, and then get an INT. But all that would result in is an offensive adjustment by Shanahan.


Bottom line: if there isn't a predictable and reliable weakness, and in particular a physical weakness or tendencies caused by a predictable physical weakness or lack of quarterback fundamentals (e.g. anticipatory throwing), defenses aren't able to scheme effectively against the quarterback on a reliable and predictable basis.

TLDR. Sorry. 8) I’m sure you were fitting Jimmy G for his gold jacket though.

 

[adeltaY]

Then why trade him for a 2nd round pick? If bill really thought he was the future, he’d just let him sit until Brady declined instead of getting a pick that may or may not be an actual difference maker. He reminds me of Nick Foles in the amount of success he’s having so early. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

Maybe Kraft forced Belichick hand? Weird situation to say the least. They would've had to extend Jimmy G or would cap out at a third round compensatory pick. Getting the Niners 2nd rounder this year is much better than getting a 3rd rounder next year. Paying Jimmy G and Brady a combined 40M+ a year would be pretty "unsustainable" as Bill said after the trade.

 

[Popeyejones]

Then why trade him for a 2nd round pick? If bill really thought he was the future, he’d just let him sit until Brady declined instead of getting a pick that may or may not be an actual difference maker. He reminds me of Nick Foles in the amount of success he’s having so early. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

He's a FA after this year. They weren't willing to trade him before this season because up until the trade deadline they were trying to work out a long term deal with his agent.

When it became clear that wouldn't happen they contacted the 9ers the day before the trade deadline and offered him for their 2nd round pick (which was #2 in the 2nd round at the time).

To be fair there's debates about what happened.

The more salacious story is that BB wanted to keep JG and trade Brady, but Kraft nixed moving on from Brady.

The less salacious story (and I think, more accurate one), is that during this year it became clear that Brady is nowhere near retiring, JG wanted to start, and it was clear that they couldn't afford to pay both of them for the next few years.

 

[Seahawkfan80]

Then why trade him for a 2nd round pick? If bill really thought he was the future, he’d just let him sit until Brady declined instead of getting a pick that may or may not be an actual difference maker. He reminds me of Nick Foles in the amount of success he’s having so early. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

He's a FA after this year. They weren't willing to trade him before this season because up until the trade deadline they were trying to work out a long term deal with his agent.

When it became clear that wouldn't happen they contacted the 9ers the day before the trade deadline and offered him for their 2nd round pick (which was #2 in the 2nd round at the time).

To be fair there's debates about what happened.

The more salacious story is that BB wanted to keep JG and trade Brady, but Kraft nixed moving on from Brady.

The less salacious story (and I think, more accurate one), is that during this year it became clear that Brady is nowhere near retiring, JG wanted to start, and it was clear that they couldn't afford to pay both of them for the next few years.

Or it could be only about money. Right now Brady fills seats and they expect that to happen for the next 2 to 3 years. That is a lot of cash for the team. Losing Brady to a semi unknown may split the market value a bit on the team. He did have a few good games but the bottom line is what will make them money. Even if they lose in a second round in the playoffs, the financial gain is still up there as far as KRAFT is concerned. Use him or lose him.

 

[Bobblehead]

Kind of amusing reading how the 49er fans now think they are the next year SB winners...

Next season, teams will have figured out, JimiG, just like they figured out Colinkrap.. just like they are figuring out DakP.

However, it's always a fun ride when the toy is shiny and new... Remember Russ when he was shiny and new?

 

[SoulfishHawk]

The same 49ers fans who called themselves "faithful" but only have 15K in their stands, until they start winning. Then magically they become "faithful" again :roll:

 

[rlkats]

Ah nice there it is. The smack talk lol. For starters are the Niners going to the SB next year. Answer = hahahaha hell no waaaay to many holes. The addition of Jimmy has been nice. If you can not see Jimmy has been an instant upgrade over one read and run Kaepernick or any of the great QB’s the last 4 years your just blind. We were 0-10 then finally got a win against a crappy Giants team with CJ. Then Jimmy beats 4 teams in a row two of them playoff teams. Jimmy goes through his reads, hits multiple receivers, is very accurate, and mobile (not like Wilson) but good. These are all traits that make a losing franchise and fans excited. So ya is there a ton of bs from Niners fans? Sure but for once it’s refreshing to see a QB actually be competent.

 

[Sox-n-Hawks]

Good, I hope they are. Steel sharpens Steel. The Seahawks were at their best when everyone in the NFC west was a legitimate playoff contender. BRING IT.

 

[AF_BASS_MAN]

Ya the Niner fans are saying all kinds of things since the arrival of Jimmy. I can’t blame them as we were all saying similar things after Wilson started winning us games.

One of the things I came across that they said really pissed me off though, mostly because recently when our team started to not look as good as they have been, a lot of our fans started to seemingly run for the hills, which made me question just how many damn bandwagon fans are we actually surrounded by...

“They aren’t called the “12’s” because they are the twelfth man, but because they weren’t Seahawk fans until two thousand and TWELVE!”


While I’m hopeful that Jimmy could get “figured out” next season, we would be just plain ignorant if we compared it to how Kaepernick was figured out. Jimmy is nothing like Kaepernick, and isn’t relying on a gimmick new style of offense that opposing defenses have never seen before. Jimmy is doing great and lifting up the players around him by doing all the same things that most of the good true pocket passers do. He’s just seemingly doing them better.

 

[5_Golden_Rings]

I remember a world beater last year that went 13-3, a beat up Seattle defense made him look like crap today. Once teams get film on a guy and start gameplanning around said players weaknesses sometimes success slows down. Doesn’t matter if it’s Shady Brady, Russell Wilson, last years golden boy Dak Prescott, or this year’s golden boy Jimmy G
Small sample sizes.

These kind of blanket statements always bother me because they ignore highly relevant details.

Let's start with Kaepernick. How did defenses figure him out? Was it the zone-read? Nope. It was his long release and his lack of anticipatory throwing ability.

Defenses began to realize that with Kap's long release and his tendency to need to see the WR open, they could play off the WR and then break as soon as he cocked his arm, knowing they'd get there in time. His four interception game against Arizona is what did it. From then on, Kaepernick was spooked into hesitating constantly, which only made his problems worse. It took an entire year and the right coaching staff to get him functional again.

So what happened? Defenses found a predictable and reliable physical weakness he had (long release) along with a predictable and reliable action (needing to see WRs open before throwing, resulting in his eyes betraying where he wanted to go with the ball). That's when he was "figured out." Now with his passing ability neutralized, defenses could stuff the box and limit his other attributes.



Shady Brady? Dude defenses have not actually figured him out. He is still routinely competing for MVP, and no scheming has yet to predictably and reliably stop him. Why? Because he has no physical or other weakness that is predictably reliable. You can say Brady can't move much, but that isn't a physical handicap for a pocket quarterback. The fact is Brady has no predictable weaknesses. Neither does Drew Brees (other than his height, but his vision neutralizes that weakness), or many other great pocket quarterbacks.




Russell Wilson: Russell has a predictable physical weakness (his height); it will be there every game, and the result is he is not very great at rhythm passing, in particular on the shorter routes. This is, however, rendered irrelevant by his athletic ability. What Russell Wilson presents is a predictable weakness TO THE DEFENSE weak in and weak out. The defense must always be careful in their pass rush every time they play Seattle, and must often spy him. Wilson has not been neutralized by NFL defenses. Even when he's playing badly he makes plays. So yeah, put Wilson in a similar category with Brady. No one has "figured him out" yet because even though defenses know what is coming, by its very nature what he does is unpredictable. No one knows which way he's going to dart, or when he's going to see the WR breaking open, or where on the field. You know it's coming, but it's still unpredictable.



Dak Prescott: His weaknesses have always been known, and they are mechanical and mental. (1) He has poor pocket comfort, (2) he does what Kaepernick does; throws when he sees the WR open rather than anticipating, and throwing to the target rather than leading the target. Defenses didn't suddenly have an epiphany regarding Prescott. This is just what happens when an extremely talented supporting cast carries a mediocre quarterback- unless the crew around him always performs, at some point the lack of ability of the quarterback is going to shine through. Losing Elliot for several games hurt, but nothing really changed in what was known about him.



How about Peyton Manning in the Super Bowl against Seattle? He had a PREDICTABLE physical weakness, and as a result a predictable scheme weakness: declining arm strength. Most of his passes were stretching the defense horizontally close to the line of scrimmage. Seattle exploited this to the full extent. The other weakness he had in that game was that he played against a top 10 all time defense. But the defense knew they had reliable intel about Manning. All his deep passes were within seconds of the snap and only 15-20 yards down field when caught. Using their press defense and cover 3 looks, the Seahawks were easily able to remove this weapon from Manning. Combined with the elite pass rush, the results were as predictable as Manning was.






That post has been all about predictable weaknesses, so far. Those are what defenses need to scheme to exploit a weakness. Here is a guy who had a weakness that defenses could NOT scheme against, but rather had to just stand ready to take advantage of when it occurred:

Brett Favre. He had a huge weakness: he would throw the ball in any window no matter what because he felt he could fit it in. This led to him being the all time interception leader. But it wasn't something a defense could SCHEME for to take advantage of, because no one ever knew when he was going to do something stupid with the ball. But Favre had zero physical weaknesses, or weaknesses that were predictable.



Now, take a look at Garoppolo: He likewise has no predictable physical weaknesses. His arm is adequate. His release is lightning fast, maybe the fastest in the NFL. He doesn't need to set his feet to throw, and he's very quick at going from recognizing the time to throw and making the throw. So, there is nothing physical that a defense can key on (unlike with Kaepernick). That leaves only the possibility of finding some tendency for him regarding throwing the ball, but he's thrown it all over the field his entire career and in college. He is not predictable in where he throws, in particular because he doesn't need to see the WR open before he throws it.

He HAS a weakness, however, which was obvious from the beginning, and it's a potentially crippling one: he takes chances with the ball, just like Favre, except his arm isn't nearly as strong. This weakness will haunt him in the future. However, the key here is that it is an UNPREDICTABLE weakness. No one can anticipate when Jimmy G is going to try to thread the needle into a place he has no business attempting a pass.

The only other possibility for your post to be accurate is if Jimmy G somehow telegraphs where he's going to go with the ball based on a certain coverage or read. However, because of his absurdly fast release, even if he did, defenses will not be able to capitalize on it. Instead, the only predictable weakness defenses will be able to exploit are SCHEME weaknesses (like what the Patriots did to Seattle in the Super Bowl based on the formation at the goal line on the INT to Butler). Say, for example, if the 49ers always run a slant out of stacked/staggered formations (something Shanahan has always liked doing). Then a defender could anticipate the throw before his arm is even cocked, and then get an INT. But all that would result in is an offensive adjustment by Shanahan.


Bottom line: if there isn't a predictable and reliable weakness, and in particular a physical weakness or tendencies caused by a predictable physical weakness or lack of quarterback fundamentals (e.g. anticipatory throwing), defenses aren't able to scheme effectively against the quarterback on a reliable and predictable basis.

TLDR. Sorry. 8) I’m sure you were fitting Jimmy G for his gold jacket though.

No I was explaining what should be obvious about the logical fallacy you made. It also explained why Russell Wilson still has success despite his own weaknesses.

It can be summed up in two sentences: QBs with RELIABLY PREDICTABLE weaknesses, especially physical ones, get "figured out." QBs with UNPREDICTABLE and UNRELIABLE weaknesses CANNOT be "figured out."


Kaepernick' weaknessss (long release, telegraphing) were physical and reliable.

Garoppolo's weaknesses are not. His weaknesses are random (occasional poor decisions, making the wrong read on occasion). A team cannot predict when they will happen, therefore they cannot really exploit them in a PLANNED way. They can only be ready to take advantage of them when they occur.

It's not some magical, esoteric thing. Kap got exploited because he has a long release. Favre COULD NOT be exploited because no one knew precisely when he'd do something stupid.

 

[hawknation2017]

Stupid Whiners. Had they won one more game, we could have called them the 7-9ers.

 

[NINEster]

Stupid Whiners. Had they won one more game, we could have called them the 7-9ers.

I was born in '79, I'd like that.

 

[NINEster]

Kind of amusing reading how the 49er fans now think they are the next year SB winners...

Next season, teams will have figured out, JimiG, just like they figured out Colinkrap.. just like they are figuring out DakP.

However, it's always a fun ride when the toy is shiny and new... Remember Russ when he was shiny and new?

Yes, I remember.

The Seahawks were scarier then than they are now. :2thumbs:

 

[Popeyejones]

I really like the language of reliable weaknesses. It’s a good way to talk about things.

We don’t know if JGQ has any reliable weaknesses yet. Deep corners could end up being a reliable weakness for him. If so, you play press man single high with a safety patrolling the intermediate middle and you’re starting to neutralize the areas of the field in which he’s already shown the ability to excel. That could be true and it could not. We don’t know if he’s been missing on those throws due to small sample size or due to a more consistent issue. What we do know is that teams haven’t tried to force him into those throws yet. Whatever it is, Jacksonville’s base defense isn’t really designed to take away the areas in which we already know he excels.

 

[adeltaY]

[youtube]ymIOgCfa9pY[/youtube]

according to this breakdown, he has a mechanical flaw with his front foot placement. Should be easily correctable, but it raises the question of why a fourth year QB who played behind Brady hasn't got this down yet. Shanahan will hammer this home during the offseason. Also, he can actually scheme around a QB's weakness! And attack a defense's weakness! Wonder how it feels to have that kind of offensive coach?

 

[Marvin49]

Kind of amusing reading how the 49er fans now think they are the next year SB winners...

Next season, teams will have figured out, JimiG, just like they figured out Colinkrap.. just like they are figuring out DakP.

However, it's always a fun ride when the toy is shiny and new... Remember Russ when he was shiny and new?

No reasonable Niner fan is saying Super Bowl. As for figuring him out....

....I don't think thats going to happen. He's playing in a conventional offense. No gimmick. Kaep and Prescott had the game best O-Lines and tremendous run games that had to be accounted for. Tons of play action and wide open space behind it.

While I like some of the young players the Niners have on O (Taylor, Kittle) and Goodwin has been far better than expected, Jimmy is doing this WITHOUT that line or run game. He himself is the x-factor that has made a huge difference. He's made the line and WRs look better with his decision making and quick release.

It is of course a small sample size, but he's not Kaep, Prescott, or RGIII. He's playing conventional West Coast football. I don't expect him to get anything but better as time goes on.

 

[adeltaY]

Shanahan's system is built off of hard play action fakes. Ryan's MVP campaign saw him use play action at the highest rate in the league last year.

 

[Marvin49]

Shanahan's system is built off of hard play action fakes. Ryan's MVP campaign saw him use play action at the highest rate in the league last year.

Yes it is.

Wasn't my point though.

My point was that the run game was a huge threat in SF under Harbaugh and in Dallas. I didn't mean to imply play action wasn't used in Shanahan offense (and his run O was a big reason I wanted him).

The point I was trying to make (badly) was that those über strong run games and offensive lines reduced the QBs role and made it easier to succeed.

That's not the case with Garoppolo. He is the big difference between winning and losing in the last month.

 

[adeltaY]

Oh I agree the turnaround is 100% Garoppolo. I think the run game will get better when your OL comes back healthy next year. It was already pretty great against us with Hyde. Is he coming back?