49ers do it again

[Scottemojo]

Chip has some very fun ideas.

But within three years, the Chip experiment will be over. Chip is NFL toxic for defensive personnel with a hope of being a HC someday, which is damn near all DCs.

So let's boil down the SF future to it's essence. They have a spread guru who has been good in the regular season, but shit in the playoffs, with an owner who fired a guy essentially for losing a close SB. They just fired a good DC who was clearly in over his head as a HC, and hired a DC who has a spotty track record. The spread guru has little say over his personnel.

Oh, and they play 3 good division foes every year, unlike Chip's foes in the NFC Least.

3 years is a very generous over under on Chip's career in SF.

 

[chris98251]

I reserve judgement on how long he lasts till after spring training and the pre season, if we see a pant dropping situation with the Vets they have it may go Hindenburg before the first regular season kick off.

 

[Sports Hernia]

Chip has some very fun ideas.

But within three years, the Chip experiment will be over. Chip is NFL toxic for defensive personnel with a hope of being a HC someday, which is damn near all DCs.

So let's boil down the SF future to it's essence. They have a spread guru who has been good in the regular season, but shit in the playoffs, with an owner who fired a guy essentially for losing a close SB. They just fired a good DC who was clearly in over his head as a HC, and hired a DC who has a spotty track record. The spread guru has little say over his personnel.

Oh, and they play 3 good division foes every year, unlike Chip's foes in the NFC Least.

3 years is a very generous over under on Chip's career in SF.

I'll take the under. 8)

 

[Marvin49]

*Russian accent* - Marvin, I am disappoint.

I simply thought that a knowledgeable fan like yourself may have information contradictory to a specific claim made by The Oracle In Santa Clara.

Sorry man. Tim makes sh*t up about what going on behind closed doors and doesn't even pretend in his writing that he has sources. Its an exersize in creative writing.

Sometimes he's right, sometimes he's wrong, but his goal is always to be controvercial and to create click-bait.

Thats why I can't take him seriously. As I said, he could be entirely correct. Makes sense. I just can't stand the guy and his obvious motivations. Report the facts. Don't insert yourself into the story.

I have no idea whats going on for sure, but there are alot of guys out there without jobs that they could have hired to be the DC. Clearly Kelly heard something from him that he liked. Greg Cosell knows O'Neil well and seems to like him, but I have no idea what to expect.

They were never going to get an established guy to put his name on a defense that has Kelly on the other side of the ball. Perception and quite possibly reality is that No Kelly Defense will rank well in the league and that won't do wonders for a guys career moving forward. That is very likely one of the reasons Vrabel turned it down.

So...we are pretty much just left with guys that want to make name for themselves and are willing to take on the challenge. We'll see what happens but I'm not exactly confident.

 

[Marvin49]

Chip has some very fun ideas.

But within three years, the Chip experiment will be over. Chip is NFL toxic for defensive personnel with a hope of being a HC someday, which is damn near all DCs.

So let's boil down the SF future to it's essence. They have a spread guru who has been good in the regular season, but shit in the playoffs, with an owner who fired a guy essentially for losing a close SB. They just fired a good DC who was clearly in over his head as a HC, and hired a DC who has a spotty track record. The spread guru has little say over his personnel.

Oh, and they play 3 good division foes every year, unlike Chip's foes in the NFC Least.

3 years is a very generous over under on Chip's career in SF.

I said when he was hired that Chip will be spectacular...one way or the other.

It'll either be a run of huge success or more likely an epic failure. It will be nothing in between. I have to at least give Jed/Trent credit for swinging for the fences. If this doesn't work, Baalke's done.

I agree with you about DCs and I think thats a big reason Vrabel turned it down. He wants to eventually be a HC and hitching your wagon to a team that'll have its defense on the field 38 minutes a game doesn't help your career prospects.

In order for this to work, Chip needs to find a diamond in the rough as a DC. I'm not convinced O-Neil is that. At all.

 

[Marvin49]

Chip has hired his coordinators.

OC: Curtis Modkins (Lions RB Coach)

2015 Achievements: 32nd (LAST) in Rush Offense with Lions.

DC: Jim O'Neil (Browns DC)

2015 Achievements: 29th in Points Allowed with Browns, 29th Defense DVOA, 30th Rush Defense, .

I don't like the O'Neil hire, but not nearly as down on the Modkins hire.

Kelly is the real OC, but he was looking for people who came from different backgrounds to make the O a bit more diverse. Modkins worked for Chan Gailey and Detroits run game actually improved greatly when he took control. A few notes below...

http://www.49ers.com/news/article-2/5-T ... 19886056=1

3. He's already been a successful offensive coordinator

Following a one-year stint as the Arizona Cardinals running backs coach under Ken Whisenhunt, Modkins reunited with Gailey in Buffalo from 2010-12 as the Bills offensive coordinator.

At that job, Modkins orchestrated a rushing attack that featured the likes of Marshawn Lynch, C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson.

In 2011, the Bills led AFC with a 4.9-yards per rush average, the team’s highest mark since 1975. As a whole, the offense ranked 14th in the league that season. A year later, the Buffalo offense finished fourth in the NFL in rushing average (5.0 yards) and sixth in total rushing (2,217 yards).

“He’s a low-key kind of guy, but he will get on you when you’re doing something wrong,” Jackson said in 2010. “He’ll let you know. He’ll raise his voice if he has to if you’re not getting it done. He’s the type of coach you can definitely learn from and respect as a teacher.”


4. He comes highly recommended from the Lions

Under Modkins’ guidance in 2013, Reggie Bush and Joique Bell became the first running back tandem in NFL history to both register 500-plus rushing yards and 500-plush receiving yards in the same season.

When then-head coach Jim Schwartz was fired after that season, Bush lobbied to Lions management to keep Modkins on staff.

“I definitely wanted to go to bat for him because he’s a great coach,” Bush told detroitlions.com at the time. “He’s singlehandedly helped change the running game of this offense.”

In 2015, the Lions finished last in the NFL in rushing, average 83.4 yards per game. But midway through the season, Detroit fired offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and promoted Modkins to run-game coordinator.

After Modkins took over, the Lions averaged 95.4 yards per game on the ground. Furthermore, Detroit had just one 100-yard rushing game in the first 10 weeks of the season. Then under Modkins’ watch, the team had five in its last seven games.

“He played a big role,” new Lions offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter said. “He’s done a good job organizing our run game and sort of getting it headed in the right direction, giving me a lot of input and giving me a lot of wisdom.”

 

[Ozzy]

Marvin I agree Chip will be spectacular one way or the other and if I'm a Niners fan I think I like the move. It's different and exciting. I think he fails but most do so why not swing for the fences. This along with the move to LA makes for an interesting NFC West next year that's for sure.

 

[kearly]

Has a desperate HC hire ever worked out? I compared Tomsula to the Erickson hire, but Kelly might make just as good a comparison.

I just hope Mark Helfrich can keep his job, because I think Kelly will be looking at the NCAA again in a year or two. Seeing Oregon tank the next couple seasons would give me no joy whatsoever.

 

[DavidSeven]

In 2015, the Lions finished last in the NFL in rushing, average 83.4 yards per game. But midway through the season, Detroit fired offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and promoted Modkins to run-game coordinator.

After Modkins took over, the Lions averaged 95.4 yards per game on the ground.

So.... basically, the run game went from historically abysmal to just really, really bad. 95.4 yards is still worse than Cleveland's season average, and the Lions played the Saints, 49ers and Eagles to end the year. Even against those soft defenses, they couldn't muster an average run game.

The dude could end up being just fine, but he has absolutely no credentials. Piggybacking on Chan Gailey and wasting Marshawn Lynch his last year in Buffalo doesn't count.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

I'm the first to say under the Yorks we haven't been the most stable organization. I would caution reading to much from Browns media, coaches & players about others. They are the Browns who are the most unstable organization in the NFL. No good coach has ever been successful there. Il give O'Neal the benefit of the doubt, Pettine thinks he is a very good coach & I think Pettine is a phenomenal defensive mind. He didn't just hire him because they are buddies. Players complained, but who doesn't complain in Clevland. Look at what they have done to Joe Thomas. They have made him completely content to be a loser his whole career. What a wasted talent. Of all the problems the Niners have had I think they have taken a big leap to get it right.

Yep, also known as whistling past the graveyard.

 

[NINEster]

Has a desperate HC hire ever worked out? I compared Tomsula to the Erickson hire, but Kelly might make just as good a comparison.

I just hope Mark Helfrich can keep his job, because I think Kelly will be looking at the NCAA again in a year or two. Seeing Oregon tank the next couple seasons would give me no joy whatsoever.

Kelly is a desperate coaching hire?

Look at who is on the roster for QBs, it makes sense. It would look more desperate for Cincinnati, or a team that's more "stable".

Comparing Kelly to Tomsula smacks of Hawk hating homerism.

You have Niner fans questioning how the hell we won 5 games with Tomsula, looking back in retrospect.

Pete Carroll in 2010 I'm surely wasn't seen as the slam dunk hire as it appears now.

 

[NINEster]

As for the 49er DC situation, I'm not going to be in a panic mode.

The reality is there weren't many sexy hires to be had this offseason....Ray Horton maybe?

Everyone else is a gamble at best....no proven "geniuses" like Wade Phillips, Vic Fangio were out there.

Bottom line is the team needs an infusion of defensive talent -- Bill Walsh said offense was about scheme, defense was about talent.

How was Pete Carroll's defense in 2010? League rank of 25th in points and 27th in yards? This was the year Seahawk fans said had a "few hundred" roster changes because they were so bad.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/t ... a/2010.htm

How stupid would it have been to call out Carroll back then for those lousy rankings?

I look at the 49ers defense under Nolan and Singletary years, and they were good enough units without the sexy names at DC. Patrick Willis and Justin Smith played a role there.

Mike Nolan practically brought a turn key defense that is always decent regardless of players and coach. Last year was a violent hiccup due to an unforeseen offseason.

This year, I expect the defense to be much better even if O'Neil isn't as good as Mangini.

 

[Laloosh]

How was Pete Carroll's defense in 2010? League rank of 25th in points and 27th in yards? This was the year Seahawk fans said had a "few hundred" roster changes because they were so bad.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/t ... a/2010.htm

How stupid would it have been to call out Carroll back then for those lousy rankings?

Carroll's defense went from 25th to 7th and then to 1st, 1st, 1st and 1st. He did it with a bunch of UDFAs and late round picks.

Drawing any kind of comparison between that first season with Carroll and O'Neil's defense going from 9th to 29th is odd from where I'm standing.

 

[chris98251]

As for the 49er DC situation, I'm not going to be in a panic mode.

The reality is there weren't many sexy hires to be had this offseason....Ray Horton maybe?

Everyone else is a gamble at best....no proven "geniuses" like Wade Phillips, Vic Fangio were out there.

Bottom line is the team needs an infusion of defensive talent -- Bill Walsh said offense was about scheme, defense was about talent.

How was Pete Carroll's defense in 2010? League rank of 25th in points and 27th in yards? This was the year Seahawk fans said had a "few hundred" roster changes because they were so bad.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/t ... a/2010.htm

How stupid would it have been to call out Carroll back then for those lousy rankings?

I look at the 49ers defense under Nolan and Singletary years, and they were good enough units without the sexy names at DC. Patrick Willis and Justin Smith played a role there.

Mike Nolan practically brought a turn key defense that is always decent regardless of players and coach. Last year was a violent hiccup due to an unforeseen offseason.

This year, I expect the defense to be much better even if O'Neil isn't as good as Mangini.

The roster churn was to get talent in the house and discharge the players that either didn't have skills or buy in, it set the standard for the next year. We discharged a Coach, a GM, and a whole staff and then brought Pete in. 49ers had Talent before Harbaugh got there thanks to Scot McCloughan, Carroll had a plan from day one, he hired his own GM and reset everything and managed to still get to the playoffs and take the division.

That was the foundation that has made the hateraide within the division and the Envy as well.

 

[DavidSeven]

The reality is there weren't many sexy hires to be had this offseason....Ray Horton maybe?

Browns got Ray Horton.

Eagles got Jim Schwartz.

Dolphins got Vance Joseph.

49ers got...turned down by position coaches?

 

[chris98251]

Coughlin
Holmgren
Shanahan
Lovie Smith


All name coaches, yes it costs money to hire success, which is why the sexy names were either not interested or the 49ers unwilling to engage in discussions.

 

[Scottemojo]

I get the feeling that Baalke considers himself somewhat of a defensive mind and will be doing a bit of proxy coaching. His hard and fast ideas about the secondary in particular seemed to make their way to the field last year.

Which may be just a big a hindrance to getting a name DC as anything Kelley related. In fact, in explains his attraction to Tomsula perfectly.

I am one who thinks Chip's offense will be just fine in SF. I don't think some people realize how he can make a QB look good with pre snap reads. His offense is custom built to win half it's games simply on a very good use of current NFL rules. Not subbing players and the spread do 75 percent of the work of making a defense declare intent for the next play. Throw in couple of orchestrated motions, and even Kaepernick will know where to go with the ball BEFORE the snap. ANd that is the key to his O, the QB is not responsible for reading much after the snap.

Kaep looked decent with Roman. Roman too specialized in keeping reading to a minimum. It was only when they tried to give Kaep more, and did so with a beat up line, that he went into his turtle shell. He isn't a more QB, and Chip won't give him more.

Gabbert isn't to be overlooked as a natural for Kelley too, but I think they will be swayed by the talents of Kaep. Kaep is more weatherproof come playoff time than any QB Chip has had up to now.

 

[Marvin49]

Coughlin
Holmgren
Shanahan
Lovie Smith


All name coaches, yes it costs money to hire success, which is why the sexy names were either not interested or the 49ers unwilling to engage in discussions.

Just a few notes there...

Coughlin was interviewed and reportedly didn't want to leave his area because of his grandchildren.

Holmgren wanted the Job but 49ers not interested. Dunno why.

Shanahan was a finalist and according to Brent Jones who spoke with him that day he was waiting to hear back from the team on their final decision. Jason Cole reported he wanted to get rid of Kap and thats why the job went to Kelly, but Cole has also reported that Patrick Willis was going to unretire and that David Shaw was going to be interviewed...neither of which was true.

Lovie Smith? Dunno. Never heard anything on that front. I think they were looking for a HC with an offensive background.

As for $$$, Kelly is making 6 mil poer season, 1 mil per season MORE that Harbaugh was AND they are still paying Tomsula 3.5 per for the next three years.

$$$$$ not the issue.

 

[Marvin49]

I get the feeling that Baalke considers himself somewhat of a defensive mind and will be doing a bit of proxy coaching. His hard and fast ideas about the secondary in particular seemed to make their way to the field last year.

Which may be just a big a hindrance to getting a name DC as anything Kelley related. In fact, in explains his attraction to Tomsula perfectly.

I am one who thinks Chip's offense will be just fine in SF. I don't think some people realize how he can make a QB look good with pre snap reads. His offense is custom built to win half it's games simply on a very good use of current NFL rules. Not subbing players and the spread do 75 percent of the work of making a defense declare intent for the next play. Throw in couple of orchestrated motions, and even Kaepernick will know where to go with the ball BEFORE the snap. ANd that is the key to his O, the QB is not responsible for reading much after the snap.

Kaep looked decent with Roman. Roman too specialized in keeping reading to a minimum. It was only when they tried to give Kaep more, and did so with a beat up line, that he went into his turtle shell. He isn't a more QB, and Chip won't give him more.

Gabbert isn't to be overlooked as a natural for Kelley too, but I think they will be swayed by the talents of Kaep. Kaep is more weatherproof come playoff time than any QB Chip has had up to now.

I agree with alot of that in regards to Roman and Kap. It seems after 2012 they were trying to adjust to be ahead of the curve in terms of defenses figuring out the zone-read. They moved steadily away from it and got less and less successful. Seattle stuck with it as did Carolina and they've had a great deal of success with it. Its hardly the entire offense so I don't want to make out like I'm saying thats WHY they have had success, but they did stick with it while inexplicably the Niners kept trying to move away from what Kap was good at and make him into something he's not. It says something tho that the NFC QB in the SB for 4 straight years now has been a very mobile QB who runs zone-read, runs a ton of play action, and has a strong run game. It works...and it really helps if the D is dominant as well.

Thats one of the reasons I like the Kelly hire, but I am not completely sold he can fix Kap. I kinda wonder if he's too broken to fix.

As for Baalke, nah, I don't think he's thinking of proxy coaching. I know he did a bit with the DBs this year, but I don't really buy that. I think the bigger issue is that big name or up and coming candidates for DC who want to further their career are wary of coaching a defense that will likely rank low in total defense simply because they spend so much time on the field. Thats also huge because a big piece of that formula above of NFC teams in the SB the last 4 years IS that dominating defense.

Thats one of the big negatives of hiring Chip Kelly.

Baalke is pretty good though at DRAFTING defense. Its offense where he struggles. I'd like to see them sign a few Free Agents on offense with that 50+ mil in space and then draft defense, defense, and more defense with their 12 picks starting with DeForest Buckner or Myles Jack.

 

[kearly]

Kelly is a desperate coaching hire?

We know for a fact that Kelly wasn't Baalke's first choice, and Kelly's public displays of desperation the past couple months are well documented. This hire came down to Kelly and Mike Shanahan, two coaches nobody else even wanted to interview. It doesn't get much more desperate than that.

Look at who is on the roster for QBs, it makes sense. It would look more desperate for Cincinnati, or a team that's more "stable".

The 49ers have one of the worst QB situations in the league right now. Kelly doesn't really need a particular type of QB either. His ability to turn bad QBs into average starters is why he was less scared of the SF job than other coaches, but I wouldn't cite that as a reason to be excited.

I like Kelly, but his fit with the 49ers is the worst possible in the league. Even if he gets the offense rolling, and he probably will to an extent, his defenses are going to be so epicly bad that he'll probably be gone in a season or two. He's already inheriting a very, very bad defense, and now his hurry up style going to keep that horrible defense on the field an extra 200 plays next season.

Trent Baalke is a GM who would gladly fire a top 3 coach in a power struggle and hire the plummer to replace him. Chip Kelly was a tyrant who just got fired for wanting too much power. It's not going to work out.

Comparing Kelly to Tomsula smacks of Hawk hating homerism.

You have Niner fans questioning how the hell we won 5 games with Tomsula, looking back in retrospect.

Pete Carroll in 2010 I'm surely wasn't seen as the slam dunk hire as it appears now.

The Tomsula hire was a very obvious fall guy move, right down to his clown car sized contract, which is why I compared it to Dennis Erickson this time last year. And I was right.

Chip Kelly as a hire compared to Tomsula is less Machiavellian but more desperate. Kelly's willingness to take any NFL HC job is what made him the guy. Look at how hard it was for the 49ers to even find good assistants the past couple years. Nobody with bright prospects wants to go there right now because the situation is so obviously toxic.

I don't know how the 49ers won 5 games either, their DVOA was league worst last season. But hey, I don't know how the 2009 Seahawks won five games either, it was their worst season statistically since 1992. Sometimes teams win a few games more than they should and vice-versa. And Pete Carroll, for as good as he is at coaching, needed three seasons to push that awful team he inherited into positive DVOA territory.

I thought Tomsula was nothing but a fall guy. I thought Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll were fantastic hires. And I wasn't all that excited about Jim Mora. But I guess I'm just a homer who doesn't know anything.