Are the Cardinals the Real Deal?? Predictions & Analysis

[Polaris]

I agree with the OP. The Cards remaining schedule is not nearly as favorable as what they've had so far. I see 9-7, maybe10-6 in their future.

Yeah but given they've already beat the Niners AND Eagles. Games in the off-season most thought they'd go 1-1 or even 0-2. I think outside of epic collapse. Niners and Hawks are going to be fighting for the only wildcard spot the NFCW may or may not get. Bottom line, we CANNOT lose to the Eagles, and unless the NIners beat the Cards AND we sweep the Cards as well. I think we're gonna need to sweep the Niners.

Good thing is as long as the first half team that player TB last year doesn't show up this Sunday. Hopefully this team can get some more of its swagger back against the Raiders before heading into the brutal stretch of the rest of this season.

Yeah, but the Cards had no business winning the game yesterday. The Eagles outplayed them. Now I grant that a win is a win, yadda yadda, but that just highlights how terrible the Eagle's secondary is. The same story goes for their win against the Chargers in week one. The Cards didn't win it so much that Rivers in a couple of inexplicable brain farts lost it late.

As for San Fran, IIRC that was in Phoenix (it makes a difference). I doubt that the Cards beat the Niners again at their place.

My take on the Cards is that they are about a 0.500 talent team that deliberately takes a lot of chances and tries to 'muck it up' knowing that the uglier the game is, the more chances they get to overcome a relative lack of talent.

Looking at the Card's remaining schedule, here's my take:

@Dallas (10am): Loss. Dallas is playing the sort of game that is difficult to 'muck up' by putting it on Murray's shoulders.
St Louis (1pm): Win. Mind you the Cards could easily lose this game,but it's at home and the Cards are a better team.
Detroit (1pm): Loss. I see a game/matchup here much like the Philly matchup. Detroit right now is the better team.
@Seattle (1pm): Loss. We'll be a LOT healthier than we are now, and it is IN SEATTLE. I don't see the Cards stealing one from the Clink two years running.
@Atlanta (1pm): Win. Cards are better than Atlanta
KC (1pm): Loss. KC is a low mistake, rush oriented offense that tends to give Arizona fits.
@St Louis (Thurs): Loss. Playing on the Road, short weak vs physical team. I could see the Cards pulling this one out, and they are better than the Rams, but I favor home teams on Thurs.
Seattle (PRIMETIME!): Loss. Seattle doesn't lose in the primetime Sunday Slot.
@San Fran (1pm): Loss [This would complete the split vs the Niners]

Now if it all happens like I said above, that would give the Cards an 8-8 season, but I think the Cards will finish a bit better than that, so I'm going with 9-7 MAYBE 10-6 but no better than that. I don't think a lot of people realize just how weak the Card's schedule has been so far.

 

[SonicHawk]

They are better than Detroit and playing at home. Why does everyone chalk that up as a loss?

They have a legitimate shot at beating Seattle twice because they can stop the run and this team has only one win without getting the run game of any kind going.

KC? Once again, a game at home where Arizona is the better team. KC has no passing game and ARI has one of the best run defenses. Another game that Arizona can win.

Philadelphia was the game I thought they would lose. Dallas has been relying on the run a lot but they can actually throw the ball and it's in Dallas, even though it's not much of a home-field advantage.

This team has a legitimate shot at 13-3, I'll put my money on 12-4 at worst.

 

[Polaris]

They are better than Detroit and playing at home. Why does everyone chalk that up as a loss?

They have a legitimate shot at beating Seattle twice because they can stop the run and this team has only one win without getting the run game of any kind going.

KC? Once again, a game at home where Arizona is the better team. KC has no passing game and ARI has one of the best run defenses. Another game that Arizona can win.

Philadelphia was the game I thought they would lose. Dallas has been relying on the run a lot but they can actually throw the ball and it's in Dallas, even though it's not much of a home-field advantage.

This team has a legitimate shot at 13-3, I'll put my money on 12-4 at worst.

I disagree with you. Having seen both the Cards, Detriot, and KC, I'd put KC and Detroit above the Cards. KC does have a passing game (albeit a short one and it's not all the great).

It's not just me. Football Outsider's DVOA is a good eyeball I've found of which team is better or worse right now when as many factors as possible are accounted for. As of week 7, Arizona's DVOA is a paltry 0.6% which is terrible for a 6-1 team and it shows that an epic fall is coming (same as KC's fall last year under similiar conditions). Compare that with a DVOA of 9.9% for KC and 5.1% for Detroit.

So I stand by what I said above.

 

[drdiags]

Stats may say one thing but sometimes it is more than that. I agree with SonicHawk. I think the Cards can end up with 12+ wins. I thought the Eagles game was a loss and should have been but is it the Cardinals fault that the Eagles give up a 3rd down game-winning bomb. Or that the Eagles couldn't convert a last gasp drive?

The Seahawks could sweep them but right now I see a split. Folks were doubting the Seahawks late last year, even after the Saints game when the team hit a dip in the offense. Sure, the Cards could hit a similar dip but I think they beat the Lions at home. Dallas game is not a sure loss in my mind either.

We will see how they look at the 3/4 mark or Week 13 since these stinking byes messes everything up.

 

[SonicHawk]

They are better than Detroit and playing at home. Why does everyone chalk that up as a loss?

They have a legitimate shot at beating Seattle twice because they can stop the run and this team has only one win without getting the run game of any kind going.

KC? Once again, a game at home where Arizona is the better team. KC has no passing game and ARI has one of the best run defenses. Another game that Arizona can win.

Philadelphia was the game I thought they would lose. Dallas has been relying on the run a lot but they can actually throw the ball and it's in Dallas, even though it's not much of a home-field advantage.

This team has a legitimate shot at 13-3, I'll put my money on 12-4 at worst.

I disagree with you. Having seen both the Cards, Detriot, and KC, I'd put KC and Detroit above the Cards. KC does have a passing game (albeit a short one and it's not all the great).

It's not just me. Football Outsider's DVOA is a good eyeball I've found of which team is better or worse right now when as many factors as possible are accounted for. As of week 7, Arizona's DVOA is a paltry 0.6% which is terrible for a 6-1 team and it shows that an epic fall is coming (same as KC's fall last year under similiar conditions). Compare that with a DVOA of 9.9% for KC and 5.1% for Detroit.

So I stand by what I said above.

This is a team that has beaten the Chargers, Niners and Eagles at home. All in seemingly lucky ways. I don't see them losing a single game at home this year and I expect them to beat the Falcons and Rams on the road.

12-4.

 

[Polaris]

Stats may say one thing but sometimes it is more than that. I agree with SonicHawk. I think the Cards can end up with 12+ wins. I thought the Eagles game was a loss and should have been but is it the Cardinals fault that the Eagles give up a 3rd down game-winning bomb. Or that the Eagles couldn't convert a last gasp drive?

The Seahawks could sweep them but right now I see a split. Folks were doubting the Seahawks late last year, even after the Saints game when the team hit a dip in the offense. Sure, the Cards could hit a similar dip but I think they beat the Lions at home. Dallas game is not a sure loss in my mind either.

We will see how they look at the 3/4 mark or Week 13 since these stinking byes messes everything up.

I don't disagree that the Cards could wind up with 12+ wins, but I really, really don't think they will. There's always one team (KC was that team last year as was Detroit to a lesser extent) that has a win-loss record that is far better than the stats normally justify, and almost always that team comes crashing down to earth. IMHO it's easy to see why the Cards have such a strong W-L record right now, and frankly (and yesterday's game is a great example), they've been doing it with smoke and mirrors....and in the long run, luck evens out.

So I am standing by 9-7 or maybe 10-6. 8-8 wouldn't shock me.

 

[Polaris]

They are better than Detroit and playing at home. Why does everyone chalk that up as a loss?

They have a legitimate shot at beating Seattle twice because they can stop the run and this team has only one win without getting the run game of any kind going.

KC? Once again, a game at home where Arizona is the better team. KC has no passing game and ARI has one of the best run defenses. Another game that Arizona can win.

Philadelphia was the game I thought they would lose. Dallas has been relying on the run a lot but they can actually throw the ball and it's in Dallas, even though it's not much of a home-field advantage.

This team has a legitimate shot at 13-3, I'll put my money on 12-4 at worst.

I disagree with you. Having seen both the Cards, Detriot, and KC, I'd put KC and Detroit above the Cards. KC does have a passing game (albeit a short one and it's not all the great).

It's not just me. Football Outsider's DVOA is a good eyeball I've found of which team is better or worse right now when as many factors as possible are accounted for. As of week 7, Arizona's DVOA is a paltry 0.6% which is terrible for a 6-1 team and it shows that an epic fall is coming (same as KC's fall last year under similiar conditions). Compare that with a DVOA of 9.9% for KC and 5.1% for Detroit.

So I stand by what I said above.

This is a team that has beaten the Chargers, Niners and Eagles at home. All in seemingly lucky ways. I don't see them losing a single game at home this year and I expect them to beat the Falcons and Rams on the road.

12-4.

Luck is luck and not a plan. Luck also tends to turn over the course of a season. I see the cards losing most of their remaining games since their remaining schedule is far harder than the schedule they've faced. This is the reverse of say.....Seattle.

Basically you are buying in, and I am taking a cold eyed and cold hearted look at the overall advanced stats and emphatically am not (buying into the Cards).

 

[SonicHawk]

How is beating Philadelphia, at New York, San Diego and San Francisco and losing to Denver in Denver, not a difficult part of the schedule?

Yeah, Detroit is playing good defense but they struggled to beat even Atlanta. I don't know how you can suggest that Seattle is so much better than Arizona.

 

[endzorn]

I think two things play largely into their success...they are physical enough to go toe-to-toe with any team and second, they aren't scared of anyone. I like the Cards. They're fun to watch because they are ridiculously aggressive and get high effort from every player. Legit.

 

[chris98251]

Effort sometimes creates Luck for you, you may win by getting Lucky, then you get confidence, then you become a team that can will yourself to a win. Cards are getting to the later point.

 

[kearly]

Cardinals are a .500 team by DVOA. The KC Royals were a .500 team by 'base runs'. Both are huge overachievers, and who knows, both might end up as champions.

 

[Polaris]

How is beating Philadelphia, at New York, San Diego and San Francisco and losing to Denver in Denver, not a difficult part of the schedule?

Yeah, Detroit is playing good defense but they struggled to beat even Atlanta. I don't know how you can suggest that Seattle is so much better than Arizona.

Because it's not. Going by DVOA, the Cardinals have a vastly more difficult schedule ahead of them. I am not saying that I am right, but I am predicting an epic collapse here and now. I see them exactly the same way that I saw KC last year (and IIRC no one believed me when I predicted the then 9-1 KC team would collapse either).

 

[Polaris]

Cardinals are a .500 team by DVOA. The KC Royals were a .500 team by 'base runs'. Both are huge overachievers, and who knows, both might end up as champions.

KC just barely made the playoffs as a wildcard team and then got incredibly hot during the early part of the playoff.

Once a team makes the playoffs all bets are off.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

The Cards remind me of the 2012 Hawks. Really good defense but limited offense.

But by playing physical football and not making a lot of mistakes they're giving themselves chances in every game to win, and that's what they've done so far this year.

Still not sold on them being a NFC powerhouse though, they have a brutal rest of their schedule. Dallas, Lions, us twice, Niners........even the Falcons and Chiefs are tough.

 

[Largent80]

I watched yesterdays game and Palmer is gonna blow a few games down the stretch. he threw some ducks mixed in there.

You have to respect what they have done so far, and even undermanned, reminds me of last years Hawks squad.

 

[el capitan]

Including the final 9 games of the last season the Cardinals are 13-3 over their last 16 regular season games which includes 2 vs the 49ers, 2 vs the Eagles, and one each against the Rams, Colts, Broncos and Chargers, not to mention they also came to Seattle and whooped our asses when we were a better side than we are right now.

Anyone who thinks they are not legitimate contenders is in complete denial. Bruce Arians has done an awesome job, I'd say as it stands they're probably favourites for the no.1 seed. Whether they can hold on to it with such a tough schedule remains to be seen but they will get at least 11 wins.

 

[Polaris]

Including the final 9 games of the last season the Cardinals are 13-3 over their last 16 regular season games which includes 2 vs the 49ers, 2 vs the Eagles, and one each against the Rams, Colts, Broncos and Chargers, not to mention they also came to Seattle and whooped our asses when we were a better side than we are right now.

Anyone who thinks they are not legitimate contenders is in complete denial. Bruce Arians has done an awesome job, I'd say as it stands they're probably favourites for the no.1 seed. Whether they can hold on to it with such a tough schedule remains to be seen but they will get at least 11 wins.

The Cardinals aren't the same team from last year any more than the Seahawks are. No I don't think they are legit contenders and I have given very good reasons for this, but I suppose that I am in denial....and football outsiders is in denial too.

 

[el capitan]

I'd make them favourites in all of their remaining home games, but even if they went 3-1 at home that would give them 9 wins. You don't think they can beat the Rams and Falcons on the road?

 

[Polaris]

I'd make them favourites in all of their remaining home games, but even if they went 3-1 at home that would give them 9 wins. You don't think they can beat the Rams and Falcons on the road?

Frankly no. Let's look at who they have to play at home.

The first is in a couple of weeks with St Loius, and I do think they'll win that one (and have said so). That said, St Louis can be a very tricky opponent.

The second, the week after that is Detroit, and as I've already shown, Detroit (at least right now) is simply better than Arizona. I won't say that an Arizona win is impossible, but I'd hardly call them favorites in that spot.

Moving on.....

After two games on the road, the Cardinals have to play KC at home and KC is significantly better in DVOA than Arizona, and KC tends not to make the sort of mistakes or play the sort of way that Arizona can capitalize one. Reid teams tend to be very disciplined teams. Given all that (and the Arizona home field is nothing special), I would not call Arizona a favorite there either.

The final home game is Seattle and that's in PRIME TIME in the Sunday slot and Seattle doesn't lose in prime time and Seattle by then will be in full playoff push mode. I would not call that a good spot for Arizona either.

I'm sticking with 9-7. Sorry.

 

[el capitan]

The Lions are better than Arizona? The same Lions who lost to the Panthers and Bills (at home) and who should have lost to a pretty bad Falcons team yesterday.