Are We Going To Exceed Expectations Again?

[AROS]

Last year, we snuck up on E V E R Y B O D Y that didn't walk into VMAC during the offseason. This year, we have a smidgen of less doubters but I think the collective still has us being in the "so-so" category. Vegas had us last year at 5.5 (HA!!) and 8.5 this year (HA!!).

Bet the over friends and make some money.

This team is building it right. I think (no way to know yet but gut feeling) we nailed it again in this draft like last year's. And IF that is the case, we could be looking at double digit dubs in 2023. I project the offense Top 5, and the defense Top 15. Baring major injuries, that should equate to at least 10 wins if not 11, 12.

Yes, yes, I see the same sludge schedule late November. I won't lie, that's a total 4-week Separate The Contenders from the Pretenders stretch.

If they split that stretch 2-2, look out.

I have them going 10-7 currently but definitely feel the closer to the season we get I will upgrade that to 11-6. Who's with me?

 

[chris98251]

Would not be surprised at those numbers, we got younger in many positions so if the football Gods are with us Health should be better as well on paper at least, we also always get stronger from like game 6 thru the end of the season which is a good time to do so. The other aspect is our depth is better so we should be able to keep guys fresher, another aspect of staying healthier, rotations.

 

[Mick063]

I think with the shortened preseason, there are too many new faces on the defensive side of the ball to expect immediate success. In other words, I expect a board melt down relative to the defense for about the first 2-3 weeks. Then, the players will settle in and start playing like a cohesive unit. Further, I expect the defense to get incrementally better for the remainder of the season until it becomes a unit that is showing a lot of 2024 promise by season's end.

On offense, the single biggest question mark is going to be Red Zone efficiency. The team ranked 27th last season. Get that number into the teens and the team will probably realize double digit victories and perhaps be in a season long dog fight with San Francisco for the West crown. Otherwise, it could be a rough start to the season with the defense not gelled yet.

I think the biggest improvement will be on special teams. Field position relative to special teams' productivity will be a team strength. When a team begins to accumulate quality starters, then the overall roster quality starts to permeate into the special teams. Carroll has always been one to ask his good young players to play on special teams and he will have quite an assortment of them to choose from. I think McIntosh will be a revelation as a returner.

Of course, you can never predict injuries. I expect Adams and Mone to be out indefinitely. Maybe PUP list to start. They may even do an injury settlement with Mone to release him if he doesn't show significant early progress. I doubt Brooks is practicing full time or is otherwise practicing at a reduced level in the early season as well.

My predicted rookie starters on opening day: Witherspoon (nickel), Smith-Najiba (slot). Hall and Young will immediately be in the rotation with plenty of defensive snaps. By midseason, I expect Bradford to have decent chance to be in the starting lineup. Perhaps even Olu-Olu as well. I expect Charbonnet will see roughly 5-10 touches per game and that number could rapidly jump an extra 5 touches depending upon immediate productivity. Reed may be the only drafted rookie that doesn't make the active roster. There is just too much salary cap invested at his position. I'll bet he clears waivers and signs to the practice squad though. The competition for Morris will be stiff as well, though he may be good enough to win his position battles to make the active roster.

 

[sutz]

I'm with you Todd, all the way. Of course, I generally predict 12 wins, no matter any of the variables.

 

[FrodosFinger]

Expectations are much higher this year so good question. I believe they will. 11-14 wins is my guesstimate. They are better on many fronts. Adding Bradford to the O line was a stroke of genius. The front 7 is basically all fresh new talent with the exception of Uchenna and Taylor. The secondary and receiving core might be collectively the best 2 units at that position group in the league. All Geno has to do is run the plays like last year and continue climbing the pocket. The running back room is high quality. Tight end grouping is stellar. Basically if Hurtt can scheme correctly defensively and stop the run they will win a Lombardi within the next 2 years guaranteed.

 

[chrispy]

I think this season is kind of a knife's edge. If a few things go really well, the team falls one way, however the opposite could also be the case. It seems to me that there's a reasonable argument to be made that this team will miss the playoffs and have a worse record than '22. There's also a pretty reasonable argument that they'll walk away with the NFCW with a bye and be favored in the NFCC.

To me, that means they have a shot at every game and the season will be really fun. However, that also has the potential to result in losing some games that they "shouldn't" for any number of reasons. If there's any accuracy to the above, Net may be lively this season....

So...to Aros' original question...
I think the most likely scenario is some early struggles and difficulty on the road but a long win streak after that Bengals game. 10wins.

(...homer continuation of above prediction that might not fit as "most likely" but is now on-record) At that point a confident, healthy, young team, that swept the 9rs, hits the playoffs like a road-grader. A last minute field goal loses the NFCC and the regret/hunger fuels a '24 Lombardi.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I'm not worried about the offense. Year 2 for Geno should be better, a healthier deeper stable of RB's, TE's and O-line. And a new playmaking stud at WR.

But IMO we will fail or succeed with the front seven. It SHOULD be better (cause it really can't be worse can it?), but still very thin at the interior and LB spot.

A couple crucial injuries and I can see what happened last year happening again, teams gashing us up the middle with no solutions.

So on paper? Yes, this roster is ready to take the next step and challenge SF for the West. But the front seven could hold it back from that if it doesn't drastically improve play over last year.

 

[Ozzy]

I feel good about this team but I'm a little worried Geno is more second half Geno than first half. But on paper it is set up for him to have an even better year because of the variables Largent mentioned above. Geno could easily be better with the gained experience, an off season as the guy etc. If he is even somewhat between first and second half Geno then this team will be very good.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I feel good about this team but I'm a little worried Geno is more second half Geno than first half. But on paper it is set up for him to have an even better year because of the variables Largent mentioned above. Geno could easily be better with the gained experience, an off season as the guy etc. If he is even somewhat between first and second half Geno then this team will be very good.

As long as the RB's stay healthy and the O-line continues to improve over last year? I'm honestly not worried about Geno.

The 2nd half of the season dip was directly because of these two things falling off. The rookie tackles hit a wall and Walker got hurt, and most importantly the defense stunk and kept putting him in 14-0 holes by the 2nd quarter.

 

[Hockey Guy]

I'm not worried about the offense. Year 2 for Geno should be better, a healthier deeper stable of RB's, TE's and O-line. And a new playmaking stud at WR.

But IMO we will fail or succeed with the front seven. It SHOULD be better (cause it really can't be worse can it?), but still very thin at the interior and LB spot.

A couple crucial injuries and I can see what happened last year happening again, teams gashing us up the middle with no solutions.

So on paper? Yes, this roster is ready to take the next step and challenge SF for the West. But the front seven could hold it back from that if it doesn't drastically improve play over last year.

This is where I am too except I don't see them gashing us up the middle with Bobby there unless he's one of those crucial injuries. I think our depth is better this year.

 

[Jerhawk]

This is a 12 win team on paper minimum..

They may start off a bit slow on defense due to all the new faces, but Geno will put the team on his back early.

Once the D gets their feet under them, with mastermind Clint Hurtt at the controls, then the offense will run a more conservative, TOP orientated system.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they go undefeated though. I really don't see a way the Seahawks will lose any games this year.
And thankfully for this board, I'm usually right

 

[SeAhAwKeR4life]

No, people expect us to win a wildcard, possibly challenge for the division.

Hell the damn league is more sold on Geno and our offense than many folks around here are.

We're expected to be good this year.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

This is where I am too except I don't see them gashing us up the middle with Bobby there unless he's one of those crucial injuries. I think our depth is better this year.

Yes Bobby is probably the biggest factor of the entire front seven's success. Can he stay healthy and continue to play the run at the high level he has his entire career?

He should. But the depth of the LB's is scary thin, and will be until Brooks get's back to 100%. Hopefully that's by game 1, but it might not be.

 

[kidhawk]

It's hard to say if we'll exceed expectations, as I think it'll be awhile yet before we start seeing a lot of expectations being put out there formally.

Last season, I can honestly say that I went into each game with zero expectations, and with that, we exceeded my expectations quite often and it made what could have been a blasé season more fun to watch.

This year, I am seeing a lot of good young talent but not a lot of depth, so injuries could be a huge factor. I want to see how this defense comes together in the preseason before I set any expectations for this season. I do think we have the talent to make the playoffs and compete for even more, but we need a lot to go right. Hopefully these camps and preseason pan out well for us and we get the season we all want.

Of course all of the above is speaking as a fan of the Seahawks. I don't see a lot of media types picking the Seahawks to do a while lot, so while I'm not sure how they'll do compared to my expectations, I think the media will low ball us no matter what happens. Media usually wants to see success before they "predict" success and our talent is still fairly young, so I'd be surprised if the media has anything but low expectations for us.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Of course all of the above is speaking as a fan of the Seahawks. I don't see a lot of media types picking the Seahawks to do a while lot, so while I'm not sure how they'll do compared to my expectations, I think the media will low ball us no matter what happens. Media usually wants to see success before they "predict" success and our talent is still fairly young, so I'd be surprised if the media has anything but low expectations for us.

I think most media types are around where we are, Hawks should be better than last year, but still not good enough to knock off the Niners.

So a fringe WC team. Maybe more of us homers think we can challenge the Niners, I know I do. I don't think the Niners are as strong as they've been, they lost some key defensive pieces, and I'm sure as hell not sold on Mr. Irrelevant playing out of his mind for an entire season. Not with all the tape D-coordinators now have to attack his noodle arm.

 

[kidhawk]

I think most media types are around where we are, Hawks should be better than last year, but still not good enough to knock off the Niners.

So a fringe WC team. Maybe more of us homers think we can challenge the Niners, I know I do. I don't think the Niners are as strong as they've been, they lost some key defensive pieces, and I'm sure as hell not sold on Mr. Irrelevant playing out of his mind for an entire season. Not with all the tape D-coordinators now have to attack his noodle arm.

Right now, I have high hopes for this team. I see a lot of talent (just not a ton of depth which can be scary). The question I have is how will this talent play out and will they come together for this year or are we looking at 2024 and beyond. I can't even really think about that until I see them all together on the field. For now though, I'm just enjoying the amount of young talent we have on this team.

I hear a lot of positive stuff about our off season from the media, but I am not as confident that will transfer into them expecting wins from us. I think a large number will have us on the outside looking in. The one positive for us is I don't think the media likes the cardinals at all, and a lot will project the rams as being "a year away". This could get us a bit more positive expectations out of the media. It'll be interesting for sure.

 

[bileever]

I think most media types are around where we are, Hawks should be better than last year, but still not good enough to knock off the Niners.

So a fringe WC team. Maybe more of us homers think we can challenge the Niners, I know I do. I don't think the Niners are as strong as they've been, they lost some key defensive pieces, and I'm sure as hell not sold on Mr. Irrelevant playing out of his mind for an entire season. Not with all the tape D-coordinators now have to attack his noodle arm.

Eric Edholm, a writer on nfl.com, wrote today that the Seahawks were the 9th "most complete" team in the NFL, behind only the Eagles, 49ers and Cowboys in the NFC:

NFL's top 10 most complete teams for 2023 season

Eric Edholm ranks the top 10 most complete NFL teams -- the ones with the most talent/depth and the fewest remaining question marks -- heading into the 2023 season. Where do the reigning NFC champion Eagles land?

www.nfl.com

So there's some recognition in the general media that the Seahawks are improved and will be a contender. But then he also writes: "the Seahawks remain a bit thin on the defensive side, mostly on the back end," which indicates that he doesn't quite get it.

 

[nanomoz]

I love the positivity.

But if the defense is atrocious early, as has become an annual tradition, it could make things rough.

If they can't put two or three wins together before the bye week, I think a much better team than last year's could have a worse record when it's all said and done.

If they start 3 and 1, I think ten or eleven wins is possible. If they start 1-3, a winning record will require a hot streak against tough teams.

Excepting the games against AZ (which are always weird), the list of opponents between weeks six and eighteen are either really good or really physical—or both. The weakest teams on that list still have a great pass rush and grittiness.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

So there's some recognition in the general media that the Seahawks are improved and will be a contender. But then he also writes: "the Seahawks remain a bit thin on the defensive side, mostly on the back end," which indicates that he doesn't quite get it.

Young on the back end? Yes. Thin? No.

I'm not going to compare our defensive backfield to the LOB, but if Witherspoon is as good as we think he is? And Love can compliment Diggs? Then this DB room has the potential to be one of the top 2-3 in the entire league.

 

[chris98251]

We do have depth, what people are hesitant about is it's unproven, this tends to be where Pete and his staff shine over the years, guys come in and we go WTF why, then we see how they get used and we're all wow didn't see that coming.