Bobby Wagner

[jblaze]

If you run the numbers in the calculator and look at likely cuts coming in the next couple of years, we have plenty of money for Wagner and KJ if we choose. You can pay 8 guys on your defense with a 9th potential flex player depending on how contracts shake out next offseason. Wagner figures into that. The figure you see from LB's on second contracts of his production level is around 6m apy. I think he's worth that.

KJ on the other hand may be replaceable if we draft well. My guess is Smith and Irvin will not be resigned.

 

[Tical21]

If you run the numbers in the calculator and look at likely cuts coming in the next couple of years, we have plenty of money for Wagner and KJ if we choose. You can pay 8 guys on your defense with a 9th potential flex player depending on how contracts shake out next offseason. Wagner figures into that. The figure you see from LB's on second contracts of his production level is around 6m apy. I think he's worth that.

KJ on the other hand may be replaceable if we draft well. My guess is Smith and Irvin will not be resigned.

I gotta see this. What numbers are you looking at? Pay 8 guys on the defense? I'm intrigued, do explain!

 

[AgentDib]

If you look at our 2015 cap situation and work the calculator after figuring in RW, ET and Sherman's extensions, we have about $6m apy for ONE LB and 1 potential flex player you can use at any one position on defense.

What assumption are you applying for cap escalation? Some analysts think that the 2015 jump could be as large as the 2014 jump was.

 

[jblaze]

Well I get a lot of my salary cap info from Davis Hsu. He's considered the best salary cap guy in Seattle who's not officially affiliated with the team. He tweets a lot about these things and runs numbers constantly. He's a great follow if you're on twitter, my favorite as I'm a numbers junkie as well.

I'll post the "conversation" he had a few nights ago on this topic. Start at the bottom as that's the beginning and go up. Also I'll link his two pictures of the offense/defense cap situation in the 2015 offseason looking forward. Those pics are:

Defense
pic.twitter.com/aX51WKAKiB

Offense
pic.twitter.com/cbaP3H3QNc



Here is his twitter conversation looking at salary cap in the 2015 offseason and how you pay players with the new cap increases, etc.

Davis Hsu ‏@DavisHsuSeattle 20h

I will say this- no Jared Allen opens the door a bit more for KJ Wright all things being equal i believe, no slam dunk.
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Davis Hsu ‏@DavisHsuSeattle 20h

Big key to keeping KJ is by nailing a Base 3T in draft or currently on roster- then nailing a young cheap NT in 2015
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Davis Hsu ‏@DavisHsuSeattle 20h

But I agree- KJ Wright is a "flex" player in the "get paid" list- I can see that going either way with good reasons on both sides
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Davis Hsu ‏@DavisHsuSeattle 20h

@HavokHawk you can't "pay" full boat on 8-9 elite no matter how much the cap rises
View conversation



Davis Hsu ‏@DavisHsuSeattle 20h

If Seattle can nail a starting OL in draft- they are creating savings because they only have 2 "paid" OL- Okung and Unger thru 2015 season
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Davis Hsu ‏@DavisHsuSeattle 20h

In the end- really strange to pay big $ to TWO RBs (like Carolina) or TWO TEs (like NEP) tho in NEP it worked until you know...
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Davis Hsu ‏@DavisHsuSeattle 20h

On a Pete Carroll defense you would probably go: CB1, FS, SS, MLB, DE1, DE2, DT, DT and maybe a flex (if could pay 9 guys)
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Davis Hsu ‏@DavisHsuSeattle 20h

on offense- If I were doing it in a vacuum and lets say you could only pay 8 guys I would go: QB1, TE1, RB1, WR1, WR2, LT, C & one other OL
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Davis Hsu ‏@DavisHsuSeattle 21h

Plus- 1st round draft picks get around $2M or so per year even on rookie deal- like Carp and Irvin etc...
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Davis Hsu ‏@DavisHsuSeattle 21h

And really- you will have less than 8-9 guys getting over $6M per year, will always have the "Hauschka" and "Tony McDaniel" type $2-3M deals
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Davis Hsu ‏@DavisHsuSeattle 21h

@HavokHawk yes- 8-9 "paid", then 8-9 guys like a Hauschka or McDaniels if that makes sense
View conversation



Davis Hsu ‏@DavisHsuSeattle 21h

kam & Bennett & unger are hovering around that $6M per yr average
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Davis Hsu ‏@DavisHsuSeattle 21h

A guy like a Sherm at $12M would have to balance against some other "paid" guy getting around $2M- get close to $6M average...
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Davis Hsu ‏@DavisHsuSeattle 21h

Basically your 18 "paid" players can average about $6-$6.5M per year
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Davis Hsu ‏@DavisHsuSeattle 21h

So if you have $65M for offense in 2015- subtract $11M for your bottom 16, leaves about $54M for your other 9 "paid" guys...
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Davis Hsu ‏@DavisHsuSeattle 21h

...then there are about 8-9 "paid" players on both sides of the ball- they get the rest of the money
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Davis Hsu ‏@DavisHsuSeattle 21h

Look at it like this- on defense or offense factor in 16 players on rookie deals and allocate about $11M for those 16 players...
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Davis Hsu ‏@DavisHsuSeattle 21h

In 2016, SEA should have about $70M for offense and $70M for defense...these are on figures from Breer about cap going up....
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Davis Hsu ‏@DavisHsuSeattle 21h

In 2015 SEA will have very low dead money...will have about $65M for offense and $65M for defense..obvi can overfund one side if they choose
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Davis Hsu ‏@DavisHsuSeattle 21h

With dead money & specialists, IR etc...Seattle has about $59-60M left for offense in 2014, and about $57-58M for defense.
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Davis Hsu ‏@DavisHsuSeattle 21h

Even in "full bloom" RW, Earl, Sherm contracts will likely not break 30% of 2016 salary cap- gotta figure $155M cap min in 2016.

 

[MysterMatt]

He isn't as good as Keuchly, but has more athleticism. The key for Wagner is to be more disciplined and play his assignments. Too often last season he didn't and it cost us (e.g. Gore's run to set up SF win). I love the guy and think he can improve.

Gore's run was more a result of Kam and ET overrunning the play. Sherman to an extent also. KJ was also on that side of the formation where the play went but got washed out. Wagner was blocked well, wasn't undisciplined.

Nope, it was Bobby's gap that was left vacated as he tried to run around a block. The safety screwed up, too, but Bobby was MIA. It was noted by Pete, even.

 

[jblaze]

If you look at our 2015 cap situation and work the calculator after figuring in RW, ET and Sherman's extensions, we have about $6m apy for ONE LB and 1 potential flex player you can use at any one position on defense.

What assumption are you applying for cap escalation? Some analysts think that the 2015 jump could be as large as the 2014 jump was.

That's what I said in an earlier post. We jumped 10m in cap this year and it will be at least that next year. They're speculating but a source that PFT has says it could be 145m in 2015 and 160m in 2016.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... n-in-2016/

I've heard many others say similar things on twitter a few weeks ago when the new cap was being calculated. Big tv contract money is starting to funnel in.

 

[jblaze]

He isn't as good as Keuchly, but has more athleticism. The key for Wagner is to be more disciplined and play his assignments. Too often last season he didn't and it cost us (e.g. Gore's run to set up SF win). I love the guy and think he can improve.

Gore's run was more a result of Kam and ET overrunning the play. Sherman to an extent also. KJ was also on that side of the formation where the play went but got washed out. Wagner was blocked well, wasn't undisciplined.

Nope, it was Bobby's gap that was left vacated as he tried to run around a block. The safety screwed up, too, but Bobby was MIA. It was noted by Pete, even.

A gap is one thing and MLB's get blocked sometimes, it's your safeties who are there to clean things up if OL get to the second level as they did in this play. Fieldgulls and many other sites did in depth analysis of that play and no one put Wagner at the top of the list of fault. I've also heard Pete talk about it and I never heard MLB or Wagner's name.

If you have that link, I'd love to have it.

 

[Happypuppy]

Linebackers are not a position you pay a lot for except for the occasional rare player. Most teams I believe look at positions and players based on potential to win or lose a game as the the most important. Linebackers on defense are further down.

I think they make an offer that is affordable to the team of else they draft or pick up a FR willing to take the money. It's a brutal business

 

[Zebulon Dak]

You don't pay MLB's, unless you have a ridiculous amount of cap space and he is one of your best players. You find another rookie Bobby Wagner. Especially since we didn't lose a beat when he was out.

I wish I could agree with that, and maybe with the dynamics of this particular team it's true, but if you remember our issues at MLB pre-Lofa I'd say finding a good, reliable one isn't necessarily all that easy.

 

[jblaze]

I agree. A good MLB is the QB of the defense and makes all the calls and audibles to flex here or there based on offensive alignments, etc. A good one is hard to come by. OLB's are less necessary imo and can be pickups in the draft to be kept on rookie contracts to save money.

KJ might be the exception but we'll have to see how he plays this year. His length is something that JS looks for. He looks for unique body type players and I think he meets that criteria.

 

[MysterMatt]

He isn't as good as Keuchly, but has more athleticism. The key for Wagner is to be more disciplined and play his assignments. Too often last season he didn't and it cost us (e.g. Gore's run to set up SF win). I love the guy and think he can improve.

Gore's run was more a result of Kam and ET overrunning the play. Sherman to an extent also. KJ was also on that side of the formation where the play went but got washed out. Wagner was blocked well, wasn't undisciplined.

Nope, it was Bobby's gap that was left vacated as he tried to run around a block. The safety screwed up, too, but Bobby was MIA. It was noted by Pete, even.

A gap is one thing and MLB's get blocked sometimes, it's your safeties who are there to clean things up if OL get to the second level as they did in this play. Fieldgulls and many other sites did in depth analysis of that play and no one put Wagner at the top of the list of fault. I've also heard Pete talk about it and I never heard MLB or Wagner's name.

If you have that link, I'd love to have it.

It was on Brock and Danny, and Wagner didn't get blocked so much as he tried to run around the play. It was his primary responsibility and he blew it on that play. Saying so doesn't mean I don't like the guy, it just means that he is a young player who needs to be more disciplined.

 

[Blitzer88]

They got to re-sign Bobby. Dude is a beast.

 

[jblaze]

It was on Brock and Danny, and Wagner didn't get blocked so much as he tried to run around the play. It was his primary responsibility and he blew it on that play. Saying so doesn't mean I don't like the guy, it just means that he is a young player who needs to be more disciplined.

Agreed. That might have also been when he was returning from injury and wasn't 100%. I think there was a few games in there where the guys weren't very disciplined and got ran on quite a bit. They got back to basics though shortly thereafter and started just focusing on gaps and lanes and tackling which turned out well.

 

[Scottemojo]

This thread is a year early. A lot can happen in a year.

 

[MysterMatt]

This thread is a year early. A lot can happen in a year.

True. For instance, you can make a baby!

 

[jlwaters1]

He isn't as good as Keuchly, but has more athleticism. The key for Wagner is to be more disciplined and play his assignments. Too often last season he didn't and it cost us (e.g. Gore's run to set up SF win). I love the guy and think he can improve.

Gore's run was more a result of Kam and ET overrunning the play. Sherman to an extent also. KJ was also on that side of the formation where the play went but got washed out. Wagner was blocked well, wasn't undisciplined.

I agree. Gore's run wasn't on Wagner. The safeties overran the play, PC even pointed this out.

 

[nanomoz]

He's under-appreciated, for sure. But I'm thinking he's down the priority list a bit, as many of you do. He's become an effective blitzer, so that'll aid his FA value some. I'd say 50/50 he's a Hawk after 2015. It could be a bit like the Tate situation. Someone else could be willing to pay him more, but he'd like the idea of staying a Hawk--but money talks.

 

[Scottemojo]

This thread is a year early. A lot can happen in a year.

True. For instance, you can make a baby!

Your part in the process took a lot less than a year. Or hour. I won't speculate beyond that.

I remember when Ruskell locked up the three best linebackers in football. Lofa, Hill, Peterson. One year later it was just a huge mistake. I don't think these guys over value linebackers.

 

[Ziggyy108]

wags is a stud and completely bested in the playoffs.

 

[jblaze]

wags is a stud and completely bested in the playoffs.

I think you mean "beasted". "Bested" completely changes the meaning in the other way.