Sam Mills Fan":olb7qbrw said:
Laloosh":olb7qbrw said:
Sam Mills Fan":olb7qbrw said:
Any Seahawk fan predicting a Seahawk W on Saturday based off their win earlier in the year: I wouldn't do that. Half the starters are different now. We have a very good offensive line and two fine corners for the first time in years. The running game has righted itself. The Panthers still have three glaring weaknesses the Seahawks can exploit:
...
What does that mean on Saturday? I'm not going to pick a winner, but if you're expecting a blowout win with the caliber of players we have out there now, you're going to be very disappointed Saturday night.
So in short, you think your team is going to lose as well? I'm not trying to be rude, just seems like a lot of "fluff" in your non-committal post there...
I don't know. I just wanted to sign up here and write this. I may or may not be drinking before the worst day of the year tomorrow: the Monday after New Years.
I appreciate the objective take on your team and the focus on actual players playing the game. Fans calling each other idiots gets old after about 1 second.
I'm no expert, and our teams have played each other enough that Panthers fans should have a fairly good idea what the Seahawks do well, but I'll offer what I see as strengths and weaknesses for the Seahawks:
Defensively, one has to get very nit-picky to find fault. People can say we have faced below average or even horrible QBs lately, and that is true. But to give up 3 TDs over the past 6 games is crazy, and one of those was by the Eagles when our punter mishandled the snap and gave them the ball inside the 15. Even then, they had to go for it on 4th down to score. Say what you will about Sanchez, but that offense was clicking when we went in there and dominated it.
Lately our D-line
(ranked 5th overall by Football Outsiders) is stifling the run. The 49ers did put up 140 on the ground in week 15, but no single player had more than 55 yards. With a combination of a mobile QB, a good RB, and a serviceable backup RB (all of which the Panthers have) there are some yards to be had. There was also the Chiefs game, week 11, where they ran for 190 on us. That was our first game without Brandon Mebane, our top run-stuffer, and it took us getting gashed by Jamaal Charles (159 of those yards) to figure out how to adjust. And boy, did we. Kevin Williams has moved over and played very well as our 1-tech/nose for Mebane.
Recent rushing yardage totals:
Cardinals: 64
49ers: 64 (week 13)
Eagles: 57
Cardinals: 29
Rams: 42
To succeed on the ground the Panthers will have to be patient and stick with it.
We don't get a ton of sacks (37 to the Panthers' 40), but do get significant pressure. This is an area that Cam should do much better than a Shaun Hill or Ryan Lindley. I'm not well-versed in Cam's ability to throw accurately on the run, but if he gets space and can settle for 5-6 yard runs and slide before Chancellor, Wright, or Wagner get a lick on him, there will be gaps at times for him to exploit. The tricky thing is those gaps close in a hurry. Wagner and Irvin are two of the fastest LBs in the game and Chancellor and Earl Thomas close on the ball ferociously. Kaepernick ran for only 17 and 46 against us this year. Maybe that's because the 9ers tried to force him to stay in the pocket – I don't know – but our LBs and Ss are very fast and hard-hitting. Cam can get some yards, but he'll have to keep his head on a swivel and slide sooner than normal.
Everyone knows our secondary is deep and amazing. Byron Maxwell, our right CB, has likely played his way out of Seattle. He's a FA next year and he'll command more on the market than we can afford. We hope not, but it's likely. One of his strengths is his ability to play outside, then move inside for the nickel. Taking his place outside in those situations is Tharold Simon, who essentially red-shirted last year and is a quicker, more fluid, slightly less "boom" version of Brandon Browner. We also have Lane and Burley as CBs who excel particularly against the slot.
Kam Chancellor is our enforcer in the middle. He's shut down the likes of Vernon Davis, Julius Jones, Wes Welker, etc., with devastating hits. Earl Thomas is our center fielder and the main reason we give up so few deep passes. Cam's best bet is to work the short passes into gaps in our zone and place the ball in spots that allow receivers to protect themselves or get down without taking a big shot. His best bet at a big passing play is a jump ball or back shoulder throw to Benjamin on Simon or Maxwell, but that's playing with fire and it's not a matchup one can go to often.
Toxic differential has been mentioned.
The Seahawks lead the league again with 76, compared to the Panthers' 12. The big play is a scarce rarity against us.
We have been beaten by good TEs. Antonio Gates got us bad in week 2. It took some really precise placement by Rivers to happen, but there were spaces behind our LBs in that game. On the other hand, we have also shut down some exceptional TEs: "I'm Jimmy!" last year, Vernon Davis, Greg Olsen (1 for 16 yds), and Travis Kelce – who had a nice season but was the Chiefs' leading receiver against us with 3 for 37 yds. Olsen might have opportunities if he's one-on-one with an outside LB, but Cam will have to be very accurate. One of our D's specialties is limiting YAC. If Olsen gets open and Cam gets him a catchable ball, there will be someone on him within 2 steps after he catches the ball. If the throw is errant, that oncoming defender is likely to make a play on the ball.
Our offense is where the question marks lie mainly:
1) O-line. After the first 4 games or so we haven't fielded the same 5 guys from week to week. Unger, our center, may be back for this one, but he's been out for about 2 months. At one point we started our 4th center. Justin Britt, our rookie RT is okay for a 1st year guy, but he's beatable. Carpenter, our LG, is great when he's "on" and putrid when he's not. You'll see him lunging badly and sort of jogging in circles having no idea where the play went or where his assignment is.
Then again, sometimes the line seems to magically put it all together. Going into week 16 against the Cardinals we were very concerned about Russell Wilson's well-being. He ended up taking only 1 sack against the Cardinals' blitz-crazy D and our line looked legit, especially with our #3 center playing. The line gave up 3 sacks against the Rams the following week, which isn't too bad considering the talent St. Louis has in the front 7.
2) Receivers. We don't have the big red zone target or sideline jump-ball guy. Paul Richardson, a rookie, made a fantastic 32-yard sideline catch against the Rams, looking like Megatron or Dez Bryant by going up and over a smallish DB. He's 6-foot and lanky, but he's coming on alright lately, especially in clutch situations. Speaking of which, Doug Baldwin, as you know, is our 3rd down specialist. He and Wilson have exceptional chemistry when it counts the most.
After that, it's a roll of the dice. Our passing game is all about spreading the wealth and at any time someone could make a big play. We've seen TEs Luke Willson and Tony Moeaki make big plays, but not consistently. Jermaine Kearse has been quiet, recording 5 catches in a game twice, 4 catches once, 3 catches four times this season. Kevin Norwood is a sure-handed rookie, but doesn't see a lot of PT. Overall, we kind of take what we're given in the passing game. Russell is adept at exploiting a matchup when he sees it. Often, though, he's running for his life before he sees that open guy (see #1 above). Luckily for us, he is absolutely elite at extending a play and turning nothing into something.
3) Red zone.
We rank 20th in the league in red zone TDs scored, at a rate of 52%. Carolina ranks 26th at 48%, so our teams are kind of on par there. (Fun Fact Sidenote: any guesses which team led the league this year? I'll put the answer at the end of this post so everyone can think about it.) We settle for FGs way too often. Our play calling and execution combine to make our offense look somewhat anemic when we get inside the 20.
Special teams is not as special as last season. I think this is where we miss Heath Farwell, Mike Robinson, and Golden Tate the most. Percy Harvin too. Our return game is non-existent. Our coverage is still pretty good.
Football Outsiders has us ranked 21 (5th last year), while Carolina is 32. You weren't kidding about awful ST there.
Overall, I see another defensive struggle. The only aspect that might vary the result of this game as compared to our previous matchups is the time and venue. These Seahawks play their very best ball in prime time at the Clink. I expect something like a 17-13 finish in favor of the Hawks. But if we get rolling, and get a defensive score or a turnover in the red zone, it could go 27-10 or so.
Fun Fact Payoff:
The NFL's 2014 red zone champion: the Oakland Raiders (71% TD rate). I know, wow.
