Charbonnet will be RB1?

[Mad Dog]

It's not so much taking snaps away, as it is keeping Walker healthy and effective throughout the season. No point in running the kid into the ground when there are capable backs behind him.

I'm all into RBBC (running back by committee) in the modern NFL. I think only a few guys can stand up to the rigours of a 17 game season. So having a platoon system makes the most sense. And I'd be more concerned about keeping Charbonnet healthy and effective through the season. He needs to be on the pitch count given his running style.

That was the unfortunate thing about Penny's injuries. It kept us having to use Carson as a bell cow and it just wore that dude down. I want 2-3 backs that can get 10-15 carries a game.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Charbonnet wasn't even the best RB we drafted this year

Waste of a pick, should have drafted Trenton Simpson

I agree... complete waste of a pick.

 

[Sun Tzu]

First of all, I posted this video mid July so it had been on my mind all offseason, not just recently. So I kind of alluded to all of these points you just made in my video. Yes, Walker was a very explosive RB. 7.5% breakaway run rate according to PlayerProfiler which was 8th highest in the NFL and the 2nd most runs of 20+ yards in the league. His home run potential is undeniable and his long runs are electric. That said, his down to down efficiency was really poor. It’s no surprise a RB enjoyer like Carroll felt the need to use another 2nd round pick on a RB who can do the things Walker cannot. Walker did not eclipse an 8% target share his rookie year, got the 3rd most RZ touches in the league and had an incredibly poor conversion rate in that area of the field. I wouldn’t necessarily compare Walker’s rookie year to JT’s, because Walker got the keys to the backfield immediately after Penny went down. Seattle’s RB room behind Walker was extremely devoid of talent and off the rip he consistently got 70%+ snap share. After Mack got hurt, JT was still splitting reps with Jordan Wilkins/Nyhiem Hines for some unbeknownst reason and continued to do so until late December when Reich finally gave him the keys. By the end of the year it was clear that JT was THE guy. By the end of this year for Seattle, it was clear that the Seahawks needed more. I actually think Charbonnet/McIntosh help Seattle (and Walker himself) more. But it is a legit conversation considering Charbonnet is much more equipped to handle the high value touches when Walker already got his chance and didn’t run away with it like he needed to.

This breakdown plus Charbonnet's pass-catching and pass-protection (we have heard that Walker has been working on this aspect of his game, so he may be improved) is why I think there is a good chance Charbonnet is RB1 this year (by a good chance, I mean better than 50/50).

It also depends on how we define RB1: Is it who the team lists as 1 on the official depth chart? Who is on the field for the 1st offensive play of a game? Who gets more carries? Who gets more snaps? And, within each of those categories, are we using game one of the year, the last game of the year, mid-year, or average across the year?

If we go by listed as 1 on the depth chart for game 1 - I put the odds at 95/05 Walker (barring injury). If we go by who averages more snaps per game across the season - I put the odds at 60/40 Charbonnet (barring injury). From what we have seen of them thus far (granted what I have seen of Charbonnet is college), Charbonnet is the better route runner, pass-catcher, pass-blocker, and is more reliable at getting positive yards. Walker is the more explosive player, is better at turning a blown play into a modest to big gain, and is a better home run threat.

 

[olyfan63]

First of all, I posted this video mid July so it had been on my mind all offseason, not just recently. So I kind of alluded to all of these points you just made in my video. Yes, Walker was a very explosive RB. 7.5% breakaway run rate according to PlayerProfiler which was 8th highest in the NFL and the 2nd most runs of 20+ yards in the league. His home run potential is undeniable and his long runs are electric. That said, his down to down efficiency was really poor. It’s no surprise a RB enjoyer like Carroll felt the need to use another 2nd round pick on a RB who can do the things Walker cannot. Walker did not eclipse an 8% target share his rookie year, got the 3rd most RZ touches in the league and had an incredibly poor conversion rate in that area of the field. I wouldn’t necessarily compare Walker’s rookie year to JT’s, because Walker got the keys to the backfield immediately after Penny went down. Seattle’s RB room behind Walker was extremely devoid of talent and off the rip he consistently got 70%+ snap share. After Mack got hurt, JT was still splitting reps with Jordan Wilkins/Nyhiem Hines for some unbeknownst reason and continued to do so until late December when Reich finally gave him the keys. By the end of the year it was clear that JT was THE guy. By the end of this year for Seattle, it was clear that the Seahawks needed more. I actually think Charbonnet/McIntosh help Seattle (and Walker himself) more. But it is a legit conversation considering Charbonnet is much more equipped to handle the high value touches when Walker already got his chance and didn’t run away with it like he needed to.

Not sure you and others are giving Walker enough credit for his improvement over the season at running between the tackles. Yes at first he was skittish and bounced to the outside a bit much, too predictable for a while, and yes, sometimes he fails to run through arm tackles or tackles a bigger back would shed. Walker really works on his craft with dedication, and I (personally) saw growth and improvement over the year.

The "stuffed runs" stat you shared was a great find, and it would be interested to see that stat for say, the last 4 games, or for half the season. Walker does have trouble running through DL and LB tackles because of his smaller size, but is amazing at breaking or eluding DB tackles downfield. The counterpoint was that Walker did have a few "man-size" runs, including one shorter TD run that gave me flashbacks of the amazing Chris Carson, so possibly there are some adjustments that Walker or Waldron, in play-design, play-calling, can make to have fewer stuffed runs while still getting Walker's home-run gift.

If anything, I sure hope we see plenty of K9 in mid-3rd quarter and 4th quarter, against tired defenses, where a fresh Walker is breaking tackles from tired players who would have brought him down in the 1st or 2nd quarter. Charbonnet will be key in wearing down those defenses in quarters 1-3. Charbonnet may get more carries than Walker against certain teams, e.g., 49ers and vice versa. In my mind, the important thing is to share the workload, keep both backs healthy, and have a stable of 2 or more good backs available come postseason. Walker, or Charbonnet, isn't that a high-quality problem to have?

 

[bsuhawk]

Not sure you and others are giving Walker enough credit for his improvement over the season at running between the tackles. Yes at first he was skittish and bounced to the outside a bit much, too predictable for a while, and yes, sometimes he fails to run through arm tackles or tackles a bigger back would shed. Walker really works on his craft with dedication, and I (personally) saw growth and improvement over the year.

The "stuffed runs" stat you shared was a great find, and it would be interested to see that stat for say, the last 4 games, or for half the season. Walker does have trouble running through DL and LB tackles because of his smaller size, but is amazing at breaking or eluding DB tackles downfield. The counterpoint was that Walker did have a few "man-size" runs, including one shorter TD run that gave me flashbacks of the amazing Chris Carson, so possibly there are some adjustments that Walker or Waldron, in play-design, play-calling, can make to have fewer stuffed runs while still getting Walker's home-run gift.

If anything, I sure hope we see plenty of K9 in mid-3rd quarter and 4th quarter, against tired defenses, where a fresh Walker is breaking tackles from tired players who would have brought him down in the 1st or 2nd quarter. Charbonnet will be key in wearing down those defenses in quarters 1-3. Charbonnet may get more carries than Walker against certain teams, e.g., 49ers and vice versa. In my mind, the important thing is to share the workload, keep both backs healthy, and have a stable of 2 or more good backs available come postseason. Walker, or Charbonnet, isn't that a high-quality problem to have?

Just to be clear, I think Walker is a wonderful RB and one of the best big play backs in the league. It wouldn't surprise me if Walker ends up with more carries this year than Charbonnet and I'm fine with that. I just view Walker and Charbonnet as very different backs with different strengths and weaknesses and I hope both are used in a manner that emphasizes those strengths.

 

[Hawkmode]

First of all, I posted this video mid July so it had been on my mind all offseason, not just recently. So I kind of alluded to all of these points you just made in my video. Yes, Walker was a very explosive RB. 7.5% breakaway run rate according to PlayerProfiler which was 8th highest in the NFL and the 2nd most runs of 20+ yards in the league. His home run potential is undeniable and his long runs are electric. That said, his down to down efficiency was really poor. It’s no surprise a RB enjoyer like Carroll felt the need to use another 2nd round pick on a RB who can do the things Walker cannot. Walker did not eclipse an 8% target share his rookie year, got the 3rd most RZ touches in the league and had an incredibly poor conversion rate in that area of the field. I wouldn’t necessarily compare Walker’s rookie year to JT’s, because Walker got the keys to the backfield immediately after Penny went down. Seattle’s RB room behind Walker was extremely devoid of talent and off the rip he consistently got 70%+ snap share. After Mack got hurt, JT was still splitting reps with Jordan Wilkins/Nyhiem Hines for some unbeknownst reason and continued to do so until late December when Reich finally gave him the keys. By the end of the year it was clear that JT was THE guy. By the end of this year for Seattle, it was clear that the Seahawks needed more. I actually think Charbonnet/McIntosh help Seattle (and Walker himself) more. But it is a legit conversation considering Charbonnet is much more equipped to handle the high value touches when Walker already got his chance and didn’t run away with it like he needed to.

Your points support your narrative. My response was to the original post utilizing your source. The comps I made between Ken Walker III rookie season to Jonathan Taylor still stand...Walker III played 15 games (starting 11 games) 228 rushes for 1050 yds (4.6 per attempt) with longest being 74 yds and had 9TD.

Taylor's rookie season (2020) he played 15 games (started 13 games) 232 rushes for 1169 yds (5.0 per attempt) with longest being 62 yds and had 11TD. Actual rushes (regardless of share %) is why the comparison still stands. Indianapolis also fielded a very good O-Line from the get go while ours is an ascending good O-Line which developed in parallel with Ken.

Zach can be/should be very good...but we already know Ken Walker III has already established himself as one of the best RB in the NFL. Walker III in the backfield is our biggest RB threat to take it to the house from any down/distance...which elevates our passing game making our offense a double edged sword which puts tremendous pressure on our opponents defense to not make a mistake. Zach and K-Mac allow less of a drop off (compared to DJ Dallas/Travis Homer last year) when Ken is not on the field.

 

[Mick063]

The big play potential of Walker cannot be ignored. He has superstar talent. He has that game changing wow factor and can take it the distance on any given play. He just needs to utilize his vision a little bit better. I absolutely expect a sophomore leap and if the offensive coordinator doesn't figure out how to get this guy the ball in open space, then it is time to find a different offensive coordinator. He needs at least 4 open space touches per game. At the very least. I want to see some wheel routes, or some screen passes, or maybe even a waggle with Walker as the primary target. Figure it out. I don't think there is a more dangerous player in the open field than Ken Walker III.

Zach is the lunch pail guy that we absolutely need to stay healthy. He needs to be that dependable, available, red zone guy. We need him on third and short. We need him at the goal line. We need him in the four-minute offense, with that fourth quarter lead, when the opponent KNOWS we are going to run the ball. He has to be that clock grinding chain mover, keeping the Mahomes type QBs on the sideline when the game is on the line.

If the team is behind in the fourth quarter, they need the big play potential of Walker. If the team is ahead in the fourth quarter, the need to run clock with Zach. The game situation determines their need, not the whims of fantasy football analysts.

Forget who gets the "starter" label. Screw the fantasy football nerds who need that answer. There is situational purpose for both of them. They both bring ESSENTIAL ingredients to the table.

 

[EverydayImRusselin]

Not sure you and others are giving Walker enough credit for his improvement over the season at running between the tackles. Yes at first he was skittish and bounced to the outside a bit much, too predictable for a while, and yes, sometimes he fails to run through arm tackles or tackles a bigger back would shed. Walker really works on his craft with dedication, and I (personally) saw growth and improvement over the year.

The "stuffed runs" stat you shared was a great find, and it would be interested to see that stat for say, the last 4 games, or for half the season. Walker does have trouble running through DL and LB tackles because of his smaller size, but is amazing at breaking or eluding DB tackles downfield. The counterpoint was that Walker did have a few "man-size" runs, including one shorter TD run that gave me flashbacks of the amazing Chris Carson, so possibly there are some adjustments that Walker or Waldron, in play-design, play-calling, can make to have fewer stuffed runs while still getting Walker's home-run gift.

If anything, I sure hope we see plenty of K9 in mid-3rd quarter and 4th quarter, against tired defenses, where a fresh Walker is breaking tackles from tired players who would have brought him down in the 1st or 2nd quarter. Charbonnet will be key in wearing down those defenses in quarters 1-3. Charbonnet may get more carries than Walker against certain teams, e.g., 49ers and vice versa. In my mind, the important thing is to share the workload, keep both backs healthy, and have a stable of 2 or more good backs available come postseason. Walker, or Charbonnet, isn't that a high-quality problem to have?

This.

I remember last year during the middle third of the season watching KW run into a wall and try to go backwards and get tackled a ton. He wasn't turning upfield and taking the tough 2 or 3 yards. The last handful of games, I did notice he was doing a much better job of getting 2 yards instead of -1 or 0 on plays where there wasn't a hole. I would definitely be interested in seeing the comparison between those games to see if his stuff rate dropped, as it appeared to my untrained eye.

 

[Fade]

Ken Walker missed time due to injury at 3 different junctures last season. He is a little dude.

Getting another quality starter at the position was a priority, and is why Zach was drafted so high (for a RB).

Zach also compliments K9 very well, much better in the passing game including pass pro. Much bigger and physical for short yardage. A classic thunder and lightning scenario.

They both will carry the ball a lot. It doesn't matter who technically the starter is.

 

[Bobblehead]

Put him in as full back? Wouldn't be bad to have a Csonka/Morris combo

 

[ImTheScientist]

Ken Walker missed time due to injury at 3 different junctures last season. He is a little dude.

He is 2lbs lighter than Charbs.

 

[GemCity]

We have this “problem” in my 6th grade football team. There’s a guy that has breakaway potential (he’s the starter) but usually gets either stopped for a 2-3 yard carry or breaks out for a 50 yard TD.

The other kid averages 9 yards a rush and his longest rush so far has been 15 yards. He’s not going to see the tiniest of holes and make a cut towards them but he is an absolute tank and his YAC far exceed the other guys.

We don’t really use the “starter” label with these two dudes much. And there’s a strong argument for each to get the “starting” reps.

It’s a hood problem to have. I have faith that PC will have a plan.

Sometimes, you’ve got to ride who is hot.

 

[fenderbender123]

In this era of football, we want multiple starting caliber backs. They can and will get injured, so we need the depth.

I think KW3 will be the starter again, and get most of the carries, and Charbonnet will get a bit more carries than your average NFL backup.

I say this because although I think Charbonnet is going to be very good, I honestly think Walker might be the best back in the NFL this year. Go ahead and screen shot this post and rub it in my face in a few months, I won't mind lol.

 

[toffee]

After 7 games, I am ready to start Charbonnet as RB1 K9 as RB2. K9 has more speed, but Charbonnet has more Marshawn in him.

 

[sutz]

As long as both are healthy, I think we stay with K9 as the "starter." That breakaway potential is nice to have when you're trying to build that early lead. Zach can come in and pound it later.

You can argue that we blew that a bit Sunday against the Browns, but in fact after we built that good lead we had a string of 1,2,3 yard run plays going nowhere, leaving us with 2d/3d and long too often, so we went a little pass happy, maybe. Waldron is in his 3d year as OC in his career. He's still developing as a play caller and he's playing with a ton of 1st/2d year players on the roster. I think quite a few of Geno's "bad" throws involved the WR not doing what he expected.

But I think it's coming together. Both JSN and DK had important downfield blocks that had positive results during the game.

 

[LickMyNuts]

ZC seems to have a developing stiff arm. It’ll be exciting if they’re both fairly fresh and healthy late in the season.

I see no reason to worry about which one is better. We drafted some real clunkers at RB over the years.

It looks like both of these guys are legit and have good heads.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Plenty of teams have used two backs over the years. It's a smart way to go about things. Also, you can go with the hot hand. Sometimes one guy is just in a zone. It's a very good "problem" to have, imo. Depth is extremely important.

 

[CalgaryFan05]

Do you agree with this youtuber's prediction why Charbonnet will replace K9 as our RB1?

If both are healthy and Charbonnet can out perform K9, I am open to Charbonnet as our lead back.

I don't want a lead back.

I want running back by committee.

I want Charbonnet running up the gut. I want K9 bouncing outside on the finesse side.

I want them to be the 1-2 punch that they 'should' be - and I don't CARE who's number 1, and who's number 2.

Just use them properly and more often.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Yep. In fact, have BOTH of them on the field at the same time once in a while. Good luck, defenses.

 

[CalgaryFan05]

Yep. In fact, have BOTH of them on the field at the same time once in a while. Good luck, defenses.

good point.