"Clayton claims he's "baffled" by Wilson contract talks"

[McGruff]

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Sorry.

If Wilson is just fully formed, doesn't develop at all, and starts slowing down with age, hate to say it, but you're basically talking Alex Smith.

Not that I personally think this will happen (I don't), but that's the floor we're talking about, IMO (a guy who can have success, but needs a very limited and specific system to do it in).

If it makes you feel any better I think Kaepernick's absolute floor is still lower than that.

One guy is a career 82 passer with one season in ten in which he has thrown more than 20 TD's and three in ten where he has thrown for over 3000 yards.

The other is a career 98 passer who has thrown for 20 TD's and 3000 yards in each of his first three seasons, and has already run for more yards and TD's in those three season than Smith has in his whole career.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

All I know is I'm glad we have Wilson and not those other 2.

This message brought to you by capt. obvious

 

[rideaducati]

Thus, Luck would probably have very similar stats to what Wilson has now.

Agreed. I think the only difference is that we've all seen Luck develop as a QB*, and now know that he can do both of these things.

Because of the offense he's been playing in If Wilson can do what Luck now does remains a 120 million dollar question.


*FWIW I thought Luck was insanely overrated when he came in, but have been very impressed by his development and think he has gotten much, much, much closer to building himself into the guy everyone has insisted he already was. At this point I think Luck's floor is around Brett Favre, whereas his ceiling is up around Aaron Rodgers. I think Wilson has the same ceiling, but his floor is still closer to Alex Smith.

If you meant to say Alex Smith's ceiling is Russell Wilson's floor, that's already obvious.

Speaking of ceilings, I hear a lot of niner fans claiming that Keeporpick has the highest ceiling of all QBs. While I believe he has an unreachable ceiling, I don't think his ceiling is any higher than Russell Wilson's. Keeporpick just happens to be further away from his ceiling which artificially makes Keeporpick's ceiling look higher.

 

[Popeyejones]

Hard to take you that seriously when you won't even use his name, but two things:

1) In my own evaluation I agree with this, and think Wilson's ceiling is higher than Kaepernick's. No disagreement there at all.

2) The degree to which I believe this has narrowed in the last year or so, which has even been surprising for me, as it has strongly gone against my expectations for both of them.

So, I think Wilson's ceiling is higher than Kaepernick's but not in the landslide I thought it was three or two years ago.

 

[Tical21]

How is it anywhere near possible that your thoughts on the upside of Kaepernick haven't dropped significantly over the past several months? I'm high on him and possibly lower on the ceiling of Wilson than some others, but I can't comprehend coming to this conclusion based on watching Colin try to throw a pass this season.

 

[rideaducati]

How is it anywhere near possible that your thoughts on the upside of Kaepernick haven't dropped significantly over the past several months? I'm high on him and possibly lower on the ceiling of Wilson than some others, but I can't comprehend coming to this conclusion based on watching Colin try to throw a pass this season.

If Kaepernick can get better coaching, I actually believe he could be pretty good. The offense he has been in hasn't done him any favors. The niner offense has been remedial for a decade. For being a supposed "QB guru", Harbaugh sure let Kaepernick down.

As far as Russell goes, he has a lot to work on, but is ahead of the curve with maturity and decision making which has not hurt the team thus far. With a better supporting cast, I want to see him progress this season with less bailing backwards out of a good pocket and more "on time" throws.

 

[Popeyejones]

How is it anywhere near possible that your thoughts on the upside of Kaepernick haven't dropped significantly over the past several months? I'm high on him and possibly lower on the ceiling of Wilson than some others, but I can't comprehend coming to this conclusion based on watching Colin try to throw a pass this season.

Kaepernick was last year, in my opinion, doing some of the things a QB has to do in being a little worse to get better. He didn't master any of those skills (and might never master them), but he was, for the first time in his career, doing the things a QB need to do to develop his game to the next level.

A couple examples:

*Kaepernick's footwork in the pocket is ugly, really ugly. Last year it led to a lot of sacks and off-target throws. While ugly, this is a sign of progress, as last year was the first time that he was consistently stepping into the pocket and trying to work from within the pocket. He may never develop the ability, but that he's trying is a sign of progress and the possiblity of a higher ceiling than I thought he had previously.

*Same story with going through his progressions, which he did much more of last year (going through progressions and trying to use the pocket to your advantage are pretty intimately linked, to be fair). It caused problems for him because he was still relying on his pre-snap reads when going through his progressions (which caused him to throw blindly in to coverage which wasn't that much of a problem when he was only making one read), but again, he was actually working on developing a skill-set rather than just leaning on the limited skill set that works for him. Again, to be clear that doesn't mean he's automatically a better player or he'll ever be any good at this, but because he's TRYING to fix flaws in his overall game it means his ceiling is higher.

I think when people say Kaepernick regressed last year what they really mean is that he statistically plateaued, and what they're misssing is that a big reason why that happened was because he was trying to develop his game in a much more sincere way than he did in years 1 and 2 as a starter.

It's really no different than casual fans who said Luck sucked his first two years versus NFL experts who recognized that he was pretty awesome and was developing his game beyond the confines of the college offense he played in. That doesn't mean Kaepernick will be able to develop like Luck has been doing but that he's actually trying is a point in his favor, IMO.

It's also not something that you can say for every younger QB so far, such as Cam Newton, or another player who today is still clearly a better QB than Kaepernick, but I will not name.

(FWIW I was fully expecting that other QB to start doing stuff like the above this year, and was actually really surprised to not see it that much. Interestingly if that QB's contract situation doesn't get cleared up this summer, I think it's probably not even in his best interest to start working on these types of things NEXT YEAR either...)

 

[Popeyejones]

As far as Russell goes, he has a lot to work on, but is ahead of the curve with maturity and decision making which has not hurt the team thus far. With a better supporting cast, I want to see him progress this season with less bailing backwards out of a good pocket and more "on time" throws.

Agreed w/ all of this.

 

[rideaducati]

As far as Russell goes, he has a lot to work on, but is ahead of the curve with maturity and decision making which has not hurt the team thus far. With a better supporting cast, I want to see him progress this season with less bailing backwards out of a good pocket and more "on time" throws.

Agreed w/ all of this.

To me, it looks like Russell is always looking for "something better", so he ends up holding the ball too long. That trait seems to magically go away on third downs and we see him throw on time for just enough yardage needed for a first down. I can only imagine how easily he could march the team down the field if he threw the ball to the open guy that we all see. It's so irritating to watch sometimes.

 

[Russ Willstrong]

Back to Clayton ' s comments on Wilson. Two weeks ago he figured Russell would be getting $69 million in the next 3 years of a 4 year $87 million contract versus only $47 million by playing out his contract. If indeed Russell is choosing to leave money on the table by playing out his contract then why should we be complaining about Wilson being GREEDY. Playing this year for $1.5 million is Greed?
What confuses Clayton is he doesn't see Seattle using the exclusive franchise tag and the 4 - year deal he is talking about is his projection.
What many forget is that Wilson wants to be the best ever. He surrounds himself with mental gurus and legends like Jordan. He is probably less concerned about max salary and more about forcing that next challenge--having a team centered around his skill set. Even Clayton acknowledges Wilson may never win a league MVP or even a SB MVP given this team is noted for its defense and run game. For someone who's been to the mountain top twice this young quarterback has been vastly underrated by many (including some Seahawk fans).
Getting to market sets a true market value and options that could bring more hardware.

 

[netskier]

Clayton seems to updating his analysis as new data arrives.

I see Wilson being a good businessman in the NFL which is a cold business.

I see both of Wilson's future career tracks add being good for the seahawks. A new contact gives us his services for four to five years, but taking the franchise route gives us his services for three years. So the difference is just one to two years of his services. Worst case we get three more good chances to make the Superbowl. That is pretty good. Meanwhile most of the contracts on the defense expire in two to the years. Clayton guessed that Carroll might retire when Sherman's contact expires in 2018.

Worst case we are sitting pretty through 2017.

 

[netskier]

*tracks as being good

 

[netskier]

*expire in two to three

 

[Russ Willstrong]

Clayton seems to updating his analysis as new data arrives.

I see Wilson being a good businessman in the NFL which is a cold business.

I see both of Wilson's future career tracks add being good for the seahawks. A new contact gives us his services for four to five years, but taking the franchise route gives us his services for three years. So the difference is just one to two years of his services. Worst case we get three more good chances to make the Superbowl. That is pretty good. Meanwhile most of the contracts on the defense expire in two to the years. Clayton guessed that Carroll might retire when Sherman's contact expires in 2018.

Worst case we are sitting pretty through 2017.

Yea. Clayton chases data but he gets lost in his projections too.

Clayton will disagree but Seahawks most likely uses the exclusive franchise tag rather than risk losing Wilson over a $3 million dollar franchise tag differential.
$24-25 million exclusive keeps Wilson a Hawk. A $21-22million non - exclusive franchise tag can allow other teams to offer Wilson contracts we might not afford.

I agree it's about good business for both parties. We keep Wilson for the next two years at minimum and at a cheap 1.5 million salary in 2015.
If he continues to be the best playmaking dual - threat qb and insists on hitting the market in 2017 he will be worth the two first rounders for most teams. Think Michael Vick ' s ceiling and what his value was. Now add leadership, pocket awareness, the long pass proficiency, scrambling, titles, etc....

 

[Spiderdan]

Clayton seems to updating his analysis as new data arrives.

I see Wilson being a good businessman in the NFL which is a cold business.

I see both of Wilson's future career tracks add being good for the seahawks. A new contact gives us his services for four to five years, but taking the franchise route gives us his services for three years. So the difference is just one to two years of his services. Worst case we get three more good chances to make the Superbowl. That is pretty good. Meanwhile most of the contracts on the defense expire in two to the years. Clayton guessed that Carroll might retire when Sherman's contact expires in 2018.

Worst case we are sitting pretty through 2017.

Yea. Clayton chases data but he gets lost in his projections too.

Clayton will disagree but Seahawks most likely uses the exclusive franchise tag rather than risk losing Wilson over a $3 million dollar franchise tag differential.
$24-25 million exclusive keeps Wilson a Hawk. A $21-22million non - exclusive franchise tag can allow other teams to offer Wilson contracts we might not afford.

I agree it's about good business for both parties. We keep Wilson for the next two years at minimum and at a cheap 1.5 million salary in 2015.
If he continues to be the best playmaking dual - threat qb and insists on hitting the market in 2017 he will be worth the two first rounders for most teams. Think Michael Vick ' s ceiling and what his value was. Now add leadership, pocket awareness, the long pass proficiency, scrambling, titles, etc....

No. The Seahawks use the non-exclusive tab, then if any team considers giving up 2 first rounders, we let them negotiate for us.

 

[rideaducati]

Clayton seems to updating his analysis as new data arrives.

I see Wilson being a good businessman in the NFL which is a cold business.

I see both of Wilson's future career tracks add being good for the seahawks. A new contact gives us his services for four to five years, but taking the franchise route gives us his services for three years. So the difference is just one to two years of his services. Worst case we get three more good chances to make the Superbowl. That is pretty good. Meanwhile most of the contracts on the defense expire in two to the years. Clayton guessed that Carroll might retire when Sherman's contact expires in 2018.

Worst case we are sitting pretty through 2017.

Yea. Clayton chases data but he gets lost in his projections too.

Clayton will disagree but Seahawks most likely uses the exclusive franchise tag rather than risk losing Wilson over a $3 million dollar franchise tag differential.
$24-25 million exclusive keeps Wilson a Hawk. A $21-22million non - exclusive franchise tag can allow other teams to offer Wilson contracts we might not afford.

I agree it's about good business for both parties. We keep Wilson for the next two years at minimum and at a cheap 1.5 million salary in 2015.
If he continues to be the best playmaking dual - threat qb and insists on hitting the market in 2017 he will be worth the two first rounders for most teams. Think Michael Vick ' s ceiling and what his value was. Now add leadership, pocket awareness, the long pass proficiency, scrambling, titles, etc....

No. The Seahawks use the non-exclusive tab, then if any team considers giving up 2 first rounders, we let them negotiate for us.

I'm with you Spidey, although I still believe he'll sign within a month.

 

[Russ Willstrong]

Clayton seems to updating his analysis as new data arrives.

I see Wilson being a good businessman in the NFL which is a cold business.

I see both of Wilson's future career tracks add being good for the seahawks. A new contact gives us his services for four to five years, but taking the franchise route gives us his services for three years. So the difference is just one to two years of his services. Worst case we get three more good chances to make the Superbowl. That is pretty good. Meanwhile most of the contracts on the defense expire in two to the years. Clayton guessed that Carroll might retire when Sherman's contact expires in 2018.

Worst case we are sitting pretty through 2017.

Yea. Clayton chases data but he gets lost in his projections too.

Clayton will disagree but Seahawks most likely uses the exclusive franchise tag rather than risk losing Wilson over a $3 million dollar franchise tag differential.
$24-25 million exclusive keeps Wilson a Hawk. A $21-22million non - exclusive franchise tag can allow other teams to offer Wilson contracts we might not afford.

I agree it's about good business for both parties. We keep Wilson for the next two years at minimum and at a cheap 1.5 million salary in 2015.
If he continues to be the best playmaking dual - threat qb and insists on hitting the market in 2017 he will be worth the two first rounders for most teams. Think Michael Vick ' s ceiling and what his value was. Now add leadership, pocket awareness, the long pass proficiency, scrambling, titles, etc....

No. The Seahawks use the non-exclusive tab, then if any team considers giving up 2 first rounders, we let them negotiate for us.

It will depend on what we have as a backup plan in 2016 and how Wilson performs in 2015. With the way contracts can be structured we most certainly lose Wilson to a desperate team wanting to pry him away. Two firsts won't be a horrible consolation. Negotiating a trade might be a consideration if talks with Wilson have gone nowhere by then.

 

[LickMyNuts]

There was a time when I thought there was no way a deal doesn't get done.

Now I'm not so sure.

If the Seahawks don't think a deal will get done they will explore trading RW.

It's time to start thinking about other long term options at the QB position.

 

[rideaducati]

There was a time when I thought there was no way a deal doesn't get done.

Now I'm not so sure.

If the Seahawks don't think a deal will get done they will explore trading RW.

It's time to start thinking about other long term options at the QB position.

Have faith. A deal with Russell will get done.

 

[McGruff]

There was a time when I thought there was no way a deal doesn't get done.

Now I'm not so sure.

If the Seahawks don't think a deal will get done they will explore trading RW.

It's time to start thinking about other long term options at the QB position.

This is not a LB or RB or TE we are talking about here. Its a QB. And even for the best franchises a "long term option at the QB position" comes around once every 10 years. For many, like ours, its longer. Russell Wilson is already the best QB this team has ever had, and we've been around 40 years, and he's been around 3. Other than that we are looking at Matt Hasselbeck, Dave Krieg and Jim Zorn.

You don't just look around for a long term QB . . . you find them through hard work, great timing and a whole lotta luck. And when you find them, you keep them for 10-15 years because that's how long it will take to find another one . . . at best.