Maelstrom787
Well-known member
I don't think we should use league wide data, especially in terms of the probability of the field goal attempt.Whoever made that graphic is stretching the definition of the chance of success. The sample size is too small to use the Lion's historical performance. If you use league-wide data, it's closer to a 57% success rate on 4th and two vs. a 79% success rate on a 45-yard FG.
I didn't mind Campbell's decision. But it seems like a valid point of concern, given how the Lions try to maximize win probability more than any other team in the league. And, in this case, the risk associated with that style of play caught up to them.
It's a small sample, but considering that it's Badgley and they'd been generally above average at converting, plus the fact that the entire ethos of the team is built around this philosophy of taking teams on... I really find the decisions hard to fault on a logical level. The result makes it feel awful.