Data Diving into the Defense Carrying the Offense debate

[Popeyejones]

Prevent just doesn't work. It's so conservative that it's almost like bending over.

It's kinda hard to tell, because the term "prevent defense" gets thrown around MUCH, MUCH more than it's actually used.

It seems like every time a team is giving up pass yards with a lead late in a game fans decide that they should be blitzing more, and attribute the lack of blitzing (even if the team isn't blitzing any less frequently than they usually do) as the team running a "prevent defense."

When most teams run prevent it's a soft three or four deep shell with CBs playing 8-10 yards off, safeties playing 20-25 yards off, and the whole middle of the field being covered by one defender or at most two defenders while everyone else is blocking off deep strikes on the sidelines so that the clock can't stop.

People don't do it that much, but when they do, it works.

It just gets a bad rap because people only remember the rare occasions when it doesn't work. All the INTs that get generated when offenses are trying to press into the coverage of a prevent defense don't get attributed to the prevent defense (it's just a "great stop" or "great defensive stand to close out the game), and when offenses don't press into what the formation is taking away, fans stillthink it's hurting their team to give up dumps over the middle rather than helping their team, because we're so trained to think of stopping offenses as being the mark of defensive success.

This is the one case where it isn't, and an offense gaining five to ten yards (and sometimes 15) over the middle is actually better for the team on defense than an incomplete pass (why you always see the curl RB totally uncovered -- the offense is hoping he catches the dump off and breaks a few tackles, and the defense is ALSO hoping he catches the dump off, but the deep middle LB tackles him quickly, which is what usually happens).

 

[Attyla the Hawk]

It just gets a bad rap because people only remember the rare occasions when it doesn't work.

It's a classic case of confirmation bias.

 

[Popeyejones]

^^^^ :2thumbs:

 

[Sgt. Largent]

It just gets a bad rap because people only remember the rare occasions when it doesn't work. All the INTs that get generated when offenses are trying to press into the coverage of a prevent defense don't get attributed to the prevent defense (it's just a "great stop" or "great defensive stand to close out the game), and when offenses don't press into what the formation is taking away, fans stillthink it's hurting their team to give up dumps over the middle rather than helping their team, because we're so trained to think of stopping offenses as being the mark of defensive success. .

I just don't like when the defense only sends 2-3 rushers giving the QB five minutes to run around and find open receivers.

Half those dumb Rodgers hail mary's that everyone falls all over themselves giving him credit for could have been prevented with sending 4 or a delayed rusher so he didn't have FOREVER to throw the ball.

But as far as dropping 6-7 into zone coverage to protect the deep ball with a lead, I'm usually fine with that. But for the love of all that's good send 4 rushers!

 

[Passepartout]

It seems it is about beefing up the defense. And about trying to really get better. And that is why the Head Coach spent some money on the defense. They do win the games.

 

[KiwiHawk]

I just don't like when the defense only sends 2-3 rushers giving the QB five minutes to run around and find open receivers.

Half those dumb Rodgers hail mary's that everyone falls all over themselves giving him credit for could have been prevented with sending 4 or a delayed rusher so he didn't have FOREVER to throw the ball.

But as far as dropping 6-7 into zone coverage to protect the deep ball with a lead, I'm usually fine with that. But for the love of all that's good send 4 rushers!

If there are only 4 minutes left in the game, then making the QB run around for 5 minutes sounds fantastic.

As far as the hail Mary goes, that's a special play. If we face a hail Mary play and we don't have Jimmy Graham playing defensive back, we're doing it wrong.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I just don't like when the defense only sends 2-3 rushers giving the QB five minutes to run around and find open receivers.

Half those dumb Rodgers hail mary's that everyone falls all over themselves giving him credit for could have been prevented with sending 4 or a delayed rusher so he didn't have FOREVER to throw the ball.

But as far as dropping 6-7 into zone coverage to protect the deep ball with a lead, I'm usually fine with that. But for the love of all that's good send 4 rushers!

If there are only 4 minutes left in the game, then making the QB run around for 5 minutes sounds fantastic.

As far as the hail Mary goes, that's a special play. If we face a hail Mary play and we don't have Jimmy Graham playing defensive back, we're doing it wrong.

When has allowing the QB extra time to run around ended well for the defense?

You can put 20 defenders on the field, if you allow a good QB that much time he's going to find someone.

 

[Popeyejones]

^^^^ Agreed, but for a guy like Rodgers I think the numbers flip as three guys don't give you much less than four (he just moves off his spot too well and is too slippery) where that extra guy back there is actually to your benefit.

Rodgers is also a good example of confirmation bias on the Hail Mary (the offensive equivalent of the prevent).

It's not like Rodgers is BETTER than anyone else at throwing a ball up 50 yards downfield into a sea of people, it's just luck shined down on him a couple times last year so now it's really hard to think to think about him without being overly worried about him taking a Hail Mary shot.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

It's not like Rodgers is BETTER than anyone else at throwing a ball up 50 yards downfield into a sea of people, it's just luck shined down on him a couple times last year so now it's really hard to think to think about him without being overly worried about him taking a Hail Mary shot.

You'd never know this from watching the NFL Network or ESPN, I've seen entire segment breakdowns on how perfectly Rodgers throws the Hail Mary. "OMG look how high he throws it allowing his receivers to box out into perfect position!"

 

[hawkfan68]

It's not like Rodgers is BETTER than anyone else at throwing a ball up 50 yards downfield into a sea of people, it's just luck shined down on him a couple times last year so now it's really hard to think to think about him without being overly worried about him taking a Hail Mary shot.

You'd never know this from watching the NFL Network or ESPN, I've seen entire segment breakdowns on how perfectly Rodgers throws the Hail Mary. "OMG look how high he throws it allowing his receivers to box out into perfect position!"

ESPN and NFL Network has been drooling over Rodgers for ages....it doesn't matter if it's a hail mary or a fail mary.

 

[vin.couve12]

“We lost 100-something runs last year,” Carroll said on 710 ESPN Seattle last month. “That was basically the story; that was basically the tale of why everything came about as it did. The defense had to do more stuff, we had to throw the ball more, we had to pass protect more and all of that because the running game got knocked up with the quarterback being a mess and the running back situation, everybody being banged up, we were just unable to find it. I think we’re going to come roaring right back at it.”

 

[Hyak]

That's a great quote although I am sure some will overlook it's significance. Complementary football is key and something that coaches like Chip Kelly couldn't understand. The Seahawks are at peak potential if they can run the ball effectively as it opens up the play action and big play passing game. It also allows them to have methodical impose your will drives. For the defense, it shortens the game and helps make the opposing offense one dimensional and prone to more mistakes/turnovers.