Deflated balls explain why fumbles to plays is off the chart

[Hasselbeck]

Coincidence is like.. "hey the Seahawks bookended their home schedule with the same opponents in back to back years.. thats cool!"

This isn't coincidence. Belichick and Brady wouldn't just randomly concoct this idea out of thin air.

 

[RolandDeschain]

The site that's from says since 2010, not 2007.

 

[Rainger]

Unfortunately the league will never "SEE" either of these charts. The will have no effect since the NFL wants to see no evil here.

 

[12thManHawkFan]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/24/s...tably-well-in-wet-weather-analysis-shows.html

This article is pretty telling as well.

"Over the past 12 seasons, the New England Patriots have played so well in wet conditions that their margin of victory in those games has exceeded the betting spread — set by a global market that tries to take all known advantages into account — 80 percent of the time, according to an analysis by Covers, a sports betting information website."

 

[12thManHawkFan]

The site that's from says since 2010, not 2007.

Here is when the anomoly started.

 

[RichNhansom]

The deflated ball cheating started at some point early in the 2007 season. The Pats were busted for Spygate in week 1 of 2007. It's hilarious how bad this looks.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure they've been doing this since 2007 which is the year they changed the rules to allow teams to provide their own game balls at both home and away games. Those fumble ratios are ridiculous for a cold weather non-dome team, especially since they were quite average prior to that.

I'm sure it's a coincidence. It just looks funny as hell to think they basically started this cheat at nearly the exact same time they were busted for taping games. The week after they taped their last game, they were still cheating with a brand new cheat, the deflated football.

Now the 'Belicheat' crowd can actually argue that the Patriots have ALWAYS been cheaters.

I have nothing against the Pats but I think that's hilarious.

Well when you consider spygate and the actual fine for punishment vs reward for cheating it is kind of hard to assume it wasn't viewed as a profitable. If you were caught robbing a bank and got away with $500,000 but the punishment was $1000 and you kept the rest, you would rob another bank the same day. Considering the Commish immediately disposed of the evidence could lead you to believe your a little invincible.

Here's the thing though. The stats only started to skew in 2007 and progressively increased over the years, Kind of like they were maybe only a little under in 2007 and took it further each year. They also probably felt they desperately needed to prove something right after spygate. Maybe they started out just slightly under, Close enough to look innocent and progressed from there once they seen the results.

Don't really know but the evidence is to compelling to ignore and the parties involved don't deserve the benefit of the doubt. At some point the data has to make sense.

 

[12thManHawkFan]

The deflated ball cheating started at some point early in the 2007 season. The Pats were busted for Spygate in week 1 of 2007. It's hilarious how bad this looks.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure they've been doing this since 2007 which is the year they changed the rules to allow teams to provide their own game balls at both home and away games. Those fumble ratios are ridiculous for a cold weather non-dome team, especially since they were quite average prior to that.

I'm sure it's a coincidence. It just looks funny as hell to think they basically started this cheat at nearly the exact same time they were busted for taping games. The week after they taped their last game, they were still cheating with a brand new cheat, the deflated football.

Now the 'Belicheat' crowd can actually argue that the Patriots have ALWAYS been cheaters.

I have nothing against the Pats but I think that's hilarious.

Well when you consider spygate and the actual fine for punishment vs reward for cheating it is kind of hard to assume it wasn't viewed as a profitable. If you were caught robbing a bank and got away with $500,000 but the punishment was $1000 and you kept the rest, you would rob another bank the same day. Considering the Commish immediately disposed of the evidence could lead you to believe your a little invincible.

Here's the thing though. The stats only started to skew in 2007 and progressively increased over the years, Kind of like they were maybe only a little under in 2007 and took it further each year. They also probably felt they desperately needed to prove something right after spygate. Maybe they started out just slightly under, Close enough to look innocent and progressed from there once they seen the results.

Don't really know but the evidence is to compelling to ignore and the parties involved don't deserve the benefit of the doubt. At some point the data has to make sense.

Seems like a logical explanation, maybe they started out just doing it at home, and just gradually started doing it more and more.

 

[Blitzhawk]

Well when you consider spygate and the actual fine for punishment vs reward for cheating it is kind of hard to assume it wasn't viewed as a profitable. If you were caught robbing a bank and got away with $500,000 but the punishment was $1000 and you kept the rest, you would rob another bank the same day. Considering the Commish immediately disposed of the evidence could lead you to believe your a little invincible.

Here's the thing though. The stats only started to skew in 2007 and progressively increased over the years, Kind of like they were maybe only a little under in 2007 and took it further each year. They also probably felt they desperately needed to prove something right after spygate. Maybe they started out just slightly under, Close enough to look innocent and progressed from there once they seen the results.

Don't really know but the evidence is to compelling to ignore and the parties involved don't deserve the benefit of the doubt. At some point the data has to make sense.[/quote]

Seems like a logical explanation, maybe they started out just doing it at home, and just gradually started doing it more and more.[/quote]

Or, they started out only in certain games they were concerned about or only in bad weather games. Hard to say but could be several reasons. Also, could be they improved as they adapted to having the under pressure balls.

 

[TXHawk]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/24/s...tably-well-in-wet-weather-analysis-shows.html

This article is pretty telling as well.

"Over the past 12 seasons, the New England Patriots have played so well in wet conditions that their margin of victory in those games has exceeded the betting spread — set by a global market that tries to take all known advantages into account — 80 percent of the time, according to an analysis by Covers, a sports betting information website."

There seems to be a lot of anomalies involving this team when it comes to gripping the football and, except for Brady, they've done it with a revolving cast of characters. The WSJ article someone linked to pointed out that the players who left the Pats have seen their fumble rates go up significantly with other teams. I'm guessing a lot of people are digging through the Patriots stats over the years right now and I'm curious to see what else they find.

 

[Vancanhawksfan]

I hate cheaters, and if the Patriots are guilty of it I believe the hammer really should come down.

That said I'm going to be a devil's advocate by sharing a thought. Obviously they've been caught in the AFC Championship game. However everyone here is assuming that they must have been doing it for years.

Now the statistics produced above may very well suggest a possible correlation if it can be proven that they were in fact deflating the balls over these years. However the statistics DO NOT PROVE anything.

The reason I still harbor some doubt is this: if the Patriots have been doing this over the course of years, would you not expect that other players such as the wide receivers and running backs would know this was happening too? Some of these players move on to other teams...don't you think that they would raise this issue and blow the whistle against their former team if they knew this was happening?

 

[Vancanhawksfan]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/24/s...tably-well-in-wet-weather-analysis-shows.html

This article is pretty telling as well.

"Over the past 12 seasons, the New England Patriots have played so well in wet conditions that their margin of victory in those games has exceeded the betting spread — set by a global market that tries to take all known advantages into account — 80 percent of the time, according to an analysis by Covers, a sports betting information website."

There seems to be a lot of anomalies involving this team when it comes to gripping the football and, except for Brady, they've done it with a revolving cast of characters. The WSJ article someone linked to pointed out that the players who left the Pats have seen their fumble rates go up significantly with other teams. I'm guessing a lot of people are digging through the Patriots stats over the years right now and I'm curious to see what else they find.

Haha...shoot! I didn't read your post before I posted mine above!

 

[Scottemojo]

I hate cheaters, and if the Patriots are guilty of it I believe the hammer really should come down.

That said I'm going to be a devil's advocate by sharing a thought. Obviously they've been caught in the AFC Championship game. However everyone here is assuming that they must have been doing it for years.

Now the statistics produced above may very well suggest a possible correlation if it can be proven that they were in fact deflating the balls over these years. However the statistics DO NOT PROVE anything.

The reason I still harbor some doubt is this: if the Patriots have been doing this over the course of years, would you not expect that other players such as the wide receivers and running backs would know this was happening too? Some of these players move on to other teams...don't you think that they would raise this issue and blow the whistle against their former team if they knew this was happening?

I can address (guess) about this.
1. Reports are that teams have complained about this before. At least two teams were involved in complaining this time, both the Ravens and Colts. The Colts also are reported to have noticed this in the regular season. In Indy, which proves that the Pats are not doing this for weather concerns.

2. I think fans and most players think about this very differently. Kinda like in Baseball, where players fudge the rules on mitt size, spit on the fingers, stealing signs...it's not that big a deal to the players.

3. The Pats (or Tom) don't, or at least until recently, didn't see it as cheating per se. I can see from Tom''s point of view that when the league started allowing teams to use their own footballs on the road, they were kind of giving team's permission to make the balls the way they like them. I don't think the league has actually thought of this as a big deal, they have been getting complaints and never acted until a team complained mid-game. Baseball is kind of the same, umps may suspect cheating, but rarely act unless the other team complains mid game.

I think the outrage of fans and media is kind of a surprise to the Patriots. When initially asked about it, Tom called it rediculous. I really think he believes it should be the QB prerogative to have the ball the way he wants it.

The lack of fumbles is the reason I suspect Bill is a liar as well.

Now that this has been exposed, players who formerly thought of this as no big deal will talk a bit more. Somebody who knows will say how long it has been happening and we won't have to go by the bits and pieces that are leaking out now.

 

[Vancanhawksfan]

I hate cheaters, and if the Patriots are guilty of it I believe the hammer really should come down.

That said I'm going to be a devil's advocate by sharing a thought. Obviously they've been caught in the AFC Championship game. However everyone here is assuming that they must have been doing it for years.

Now the statistics produced above may very well suggest a possible correlation if it can be proven that they were in fact deflating the balls over these years. However the statistics DO NOT PROVE anything.

The reason I still harbor some doubt is this: if the Patriots have been doing this over the course of years, would you not expect that other players such as the wide receivers and running backs would know this was happening too? Some of these players move on to other teams...don't you think that they would raise this issue and blow the whistle against their former team if they knew this was happening?

I can address (guess) about this.
1. Reports are that teams have complained about this before. At least two teams were involved in complaining this time, both the Ravens and Colts. The Colts also are reported to have noticed this in the regular season. In Indy, which proves that the Pats are not doing this for weather concerns.

2. I think fans and most players think about this very differently. Kinda like in Baseball, where players fudge the rules on mitt size, spit on the fingers, stealing signs...it's not that big a deal to the players.

3. The Pats (or Tom) don't, or at least until recently, didn't see it as cheating per se. I can see from Tom''s point of view that when the league started allowing teams to use their own footballs on the road, they were kind of giving team's permission to make the balls the way they like them. I don't think the league has actually thought of this as a big deal, they have been getting complaints and never acted until a team complained mid-game. Baseball is kind of the same, umps may suspect cheating, but rarely act unless the other team complains mid game.

I think the outrage of fans and media is kind of a surprise to the Patriots. When initially asked about it, Tom called it rediculous. I really think he believes it should be the QB prerogative to have the ball the way he wants it.

The lack of fumbles is the reason I suspect Bill is a liar as well.

Now that this has been exposed, players who formerly thought of this as no big deal will talk a bit more. Somebody who knows will say how long it has been happening and we won't have to go by the bits and pieces that are leaking out now.

If your point #1 is true then that's pretty telling.

Re #2 and #3:

If Brady and the players didn't think it was really cheating per se, then the team would have handed the balls over to the refs before the game with pressure below the prescribed guidelines wouldn't they?

It appears that the balls were tested and passed prior to the game - and then were altered someway, somehow. If the Patriots organization are deflating balls after getting the balls back from the officials then clearly they cannot claim ignorance nor can they claim they didn't understand the implications of their actions. If it was "no big deal" then why wouldn't they just innocently hand over the balls at the lower pressure to begin with?

 

[sc85sis]

Devil's advocate question: Is it possible that the balls were at the minimum allowed PSI before the game (because that's how Brady likes them) and then the cold weather made them drop below the minimum during the game?

Cheating or not, the fact the officials don't maintain control of the footballs after checking them makes no sense to me at all. That policy needs to change.

 

[OkieHawk]

Devil's advocate question: Is it possible that the balls were at the minimum allowed PSI before the game (because that's how Brady likes them) and then the cold weather made them drop below the minimum during the game?

Cheating or not, the fact the officials don't maintain control of the footballs after checking them makes no sense to me at all. That policy needs to change.

The 2lb drop in PSI would require an 80 degree temperature drop. This was brought up in another thread in case you missed it. There has been a lot of info the last week on this subject so it's understandable.

 

[RichNhansom]

I hate cheaters, and if the Patriots are guilty of it I believe the hammer really should come down.

That said I'm going to be a devil's advocate by sharing a thought. Obviously they've been caught in the AFC Championship game. However everyone here is assuming that they must have been doing it for years.

Now the statistics produced above may very well suggest a possible correlation if it can be proven that they were in fact deflating the balls over these years. However the statistics DO NOT PROVE anything.

The reason I still harbor some doubt is this: if the Patriots have been doing this over the course of years, would you not expect that other players such as the wide receivers and running backs would know this was happening too? Some of these players move on to other teams...don't you think that they would raise this issue and blow the whistle against their former team if they knew this was happening?

However the statistics DO NOT PROVE anything

I like that statement. It reminds me of my dad telling us kids about a time when we were all very young. 4 of us, Someone had taken a bite out of the chocolate cake that mom was preparing for a client (cake decorator). My dad lined us all up and asked us one at a time, did you take a bite out of the cake? Each of us said no. My dad dismissed all of us except Mike and Mike was punished good.

We never knew how Dad seem to know until years later when he explained that while we were standing in front of dad, Mike had chocolate frosting all over his face and mouth.

Now the moral of the story is, that frosting didn't prove anything but I think we can all agree my dad probably got it right and in fact he would have had to be a fool to even question it.

Look, if this were the Seahawks under the spot light I would want as bad as you to not believe it but I would no way try to argue that those stats are not absolutely damning. That would make me foolish.

 

[bigtrain21]

He's on ESPN News lying right now. I predict he's going to mention heating the air in the balls.

 

[253hawk]

More things that make you go HMMMMM....

BenJarvus Green-Ellis

0 fumbles on 536 touches with Patriots
5 fumbles on 524 touches with Bengals

 

[marko358]

More things that make you go HMMMMM....

BenJarvus Green-Ellis

0 fumbles on 536 touches with Patriots
5 fumbles on 524 touches with Bengals

Yeah well, something something benching guys who fumble something something.

XOXOXO
HeatEquation

 

[RichNhansom]

More things that make you go HMMMMM....

BenJarvus Green-Ellis

0 fumbles on 536 touches with Patriots
5 fumbles on 524 touches with Bengals

Well that's just great coaching right there. :sarcasm_off: