Seahawks-Colts Game Preview...5 Reasons Why the Hawks go 5-0

Hawkscanner

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Week 5: Seahawks-Colts Game Preview Notes …
5 Reasons Why the Seahawks Could Be 5-0 …

indianapolis-colts-1.jpg


After getting the stuffing knocked out of them for the first 3 quarters, the Seahawks came back swinging in the 4th quarter last week, laying out the Texans on the canvas before a stunned crowd 23-20. At 4-0, the Hawks are far from done roping and riding, as they face a 3-1 Colts team this week whose gunslinger has them looking as lethal as Clint Eastwood in Pale Rider. Can the Seahawks survive the O.K. Corral of another 10 am East Coast start? Here are 5 reasons why I believe they can …


Reason#1: Letting the Stuffing Out of the Pillow …

Let me say it right up front – Andrew Luck is an awesome quarterback … one whom I think will be among the very best to have ever played this game when it’s all said and done.

Robert Mathis is legitimately scary. Even after 11 years in the league (he’s 32) Mathis is showing he’s a force to be reckoned with … as he’s tied for the league lead in sacks (7.5).

Those guys, in conjunction with the extremely gifted Trent Richardson, the timeless Reggie Wayne, speedy receivers like T.Y. Hilton and Darrius Heyward-Bay, and talented defenders like Jerrell Freeman, have experts out there touting this Colts team as one to watch.

And on the surface, who wouldn’t buy in to that? After all, they’re 3-1 … and a cursory look at the statistics reveals that this Colts team is 11th in overall offense and 9th in overall defense. And of course if you’ll do a search, you’ll find the Colts rank right up there among the leaders in many statistical categories.

The question I naturally raise when I start getting in to the numbers though is, “Just WHO have those numbers been racked up against?” The further I've gotten in to them ... the more convinced I am that there may be a lot more fluff in those numbers than at first meets the eye.

Football Outsiders is an organization that most of us on this board are familiar with. For those who aren’t though, they are a group of smart football analysts who use advanced statistics in order to help more accurately assess a team’s offensive and defensive prowess. DVOA is a measurement of Team X’s performance, players, and/or unit based upon situation, scoring, strength of the opponents they have played, etc. DAVE on the other hand is DVOA combined with Football Outsiders preseason evaluations. The more positive a DVOA/DAVE is on Offense; the greater that offense is in relation to other NFL Offenses. The more negative a DVOA/DAVE is on defense; the greater that defense is in relation to other NFL Defenses. With that in mind, here are the offenses and defenses of the teams that the Colts have faced according to Football Outsiders …

DEFENSES that the Colts have faced (according to Football Outsiders)
Week 1 … Oakland … Defensive DVOA 17.1% (#28 overall) … Defensive DAVE 9.6% (#28 overall)
Week 2 … Miami … Defensive DVOA 10.5% (#24 overall) … Defensive DAVE 4.1% (#21 overall)
Week 3 … San Francisco … Defensive DVOA -1.2% (#18 overall) … Defensive DAVE -2.2% (#13 overall)
Week 4 … Jacksonville … Defensive DVOA 16.3% (#27 overall) … Defensive DAVE 11.7% (#30 overall)
Source:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef


OFFENSES that the Colts have faced (according to Football Outsiders)
Week 1 … Oakland … Offensive DVOA -9.1% (#24 overall) … Offensive DAVE -13.7% (#26 overall)
Week 2 … Miami … Offensive DVOA 4.5% (#13 overall) … Offensive DAVE -2.5% (#19 overall)
Week 3 … San Francisco … Offensive DVOA 0.6% (#17 overall) … Offensive DAVE 5.3% (#12 overall)
Week 4 … Jacksonville … Offensive DVOA -67.1% (#32 overall) … Offensive DAVE -44.4% (#32 overall)
Source:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff

As you can see, many of the opponents that the Colts have faced have serious flaws on either the offensive or defensive side of the ball (and sometimes both.) So while the Colts are admittedly a much improved team and have some legitimate weapons, the opponents they have faced should be factored in to the equation when evaluating that team.

Where does Football Outsiders have Seattle ranked? I’m glad you asked …

Seattle … Defensive DVOA -28.0% (1) … Defensive DAVE -16.5% (1)
Seattle … Offensive DVOA 6.6% (9) … Offensive DAVE 12.1% (6)

By far, offensively and defensively, the Seahawks will be the greatest challenge this Colts team has faced yet.


Reason#2: Hit the Deck …

One important aspect of this matchup that seemingly no one is talking about is the pressure that Andrew Luck has faced this year. Buried in all the statistics heading in to this game is this little interesting tidbit …

QB Hits Allowed …
Seahawks … 23 (15th in the NFL)
Colts … 34 (2nd Most in the NFL)

That’s right people – prior to yesterday’s games, the Colts ranked #2 in the NFL in QB Hits allowed.

Colts quarterbacks have dropped back to pass 130 times (so 130 pass attempts.) They have been hit 34 times – which is incredible when you really stop and think about it Colts QB’s have been hit on 26% of their pass attempts. A full 1 in 4 times the Colts have dropped back to pass … Andrew Luck has taken a shot.

And lost in the shuffle of last week’s 37-3 blowout of the Jaguars is the fact that the Colts allowed Jaguar defenders to hit Andrew Luck 10 times. That’s a stunning stat when you stop to consider just who it was that the Colts were playing.

Here is what Pro Football Focus had to say about the pressure Luck has been under this year …
Like Wilson, Luck has had his issues with pressure this year. Taking pressure on 42% of his drop-backs, Luck is the seventh-most pressured QB in the league. He’s avoided sacks slightly better than Wilson, going down on only 15.9% of pressured snaps, but has completed just 43.5% of his throws under pressure.
Source:
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/10/04/3tfo-seahawks-colts-week-5/

So when Andrew Luck has faced pressure … he’s completed just 43.5% of his passes.

Michael Bennett has been able to successfully apply pressure on 19.4% of all snaps when he plays inside … and a whopping 26.5% when he plays Defensive End.

Last week, the trio of Michael Bennett, Chris Clemons, and Cliff Avril combined to pressure Matt Schaub 13 times on 89 pass rushes (14.6% of the time.) In fact, Matt Schaub ended up facing pressure on 24 of his 54 dropbacks. (an amazing 44.4% of the time.)

With Bruce Irvin back this week, the Seahawks pass rush suddenly could become scary good real quick. Luck could conceivably find himself getting bombed left and right this weekend.


Reason#3: Gaining Ground …

Establishing Marshawn Lynch and the running game always has and always will be Pete Carroll’s #1 objective heading in to every single football game. Heading in to a hostile environment this week (where former Hawks QB Matt Hasselbeck is actually instructing Colts fans about the importance of crowd noise) … getting Lynch going is to be a real key if the Hawks hope to pull this one out this week. Seahawk fans haven’t really seen Marshawn go off yet … but there is real reason to believe that he certainly could.


Week 1 … Win 21-17 against the Raiders
Terrell Pryor … completed 19/29 passes for 217 yards … 1 TD … 2 INT
Terrell Pryor gained 112 yards on 13 carries

The Colts allowed 171 yards on 33 carries (5.2 yards/average) and 1 TD

Week 2 … Loss 24-20 to the Dolphins

Ryan Tannehill … completed 23/34 passes for 319 yards … 1 TD … 0 TD (the Colts sacked him 5 times)

The Colts allowed 101 yards on 27 carries (3.7 yards/average) and 2 TD

Week 3 … Win 27-7 against the 49ers

The Colts allowed 115 yards on 23 carries (5.0 yards/average) and 1 TD to the 49ers

If we remove the statistics from Jacksonville win (as that could be a historically bad team and might be skewing the stats) … and just consider the stats from the Colts first 3 games), they have allowed an average of …

129 yards/game (which would rank #28 in the NFL) …
4.66 yards/rush (that would rank #26 in the NFL) …
and 4 TD (which ranks among the bottom 1/3.)


Marshawn Lynch could find himself gaining more ground on Sunday than Patton’s 3rd Army did in their march across France.


Reason #4: Lane Closure Ahead? …

No, not Jeremy Lane (who’s doubtful for Sunday with a hamstring issue) – we’re talking running lanes, dude.

The Seahawks come in to Sunday’s contest having run the ball 139 times (2nd most in the NFL.) As surprising as it might be to some Seahawks fans, Chuck Pagano (just like Pete Carroll) believes in establishing the run as well. The Colts enter Sunday having run 121 times (7th Most in the NFL). If the Colts are able to get that run game going and grind out 7 to 8 minute drives … all of a sudden play action becomes far more effective for Luck and the Hawks could find themselves potentially in trouble on the road. Here are some of the stats and how the Seahawks run game (as it currently stands) compares with that of the Colts …

Yards/Rush …
Colts … 4.9 (4th Best)
Seahawks … 4.2 (13th Best)

Rushing Yards
Colts … 598 (3rd Most)
Seahawks … 577 (4th Most)

Rushing TD’s
Colts … 6 (2nd Most in the league)
Seahawks … 4 (tied for 7th)

Ahhhhh … but here’s where things could get interesting. RB Ahmad Bradshaw (who compiled the bulk of those numbers, averaging 4.5 yards/carry) is out this week and could be for awhile with a neck injury. In his place, the Seahawks will get their first taste of Trent Richardson, the one time Alabama Crimson Tide star, who was considered one of the very best backs in college football. Richardson (who was inexplicably traded from Cleveland just 2 weeks ago) will undoubtedly see the bulk of the carries and he has yet to truly pop with the Colts just yet.

Though he rushed for 100 yards 3 times last season, Richardson managed to average only a paltry 3.6 yards/carry in 15 games with the Browns. Last week against a Jaguars defense that according to Football Outsiders ranks #29 against the run … Richardson managed to gain only 60 yards on 20 carries (3.0 yards/carry.) He is potentially dangerous though, as Pro Football Focus has him ranked as one of the most elusive backs in the league.

If Seattle’s defense plays anywhere close to what they did last week though, Richardson’s not going to find a lot of running room. Pro Football Focus noted that through 4 games, no team has managed a positive run blocking game against the Hawks and that Red Bryant, Bobby Wagner, and Mebane all have run stop percentages higher than 10%. In fact, they have Brandon Mebane currently ranked as their #1 defender (+10.3) against the run. Last season, Bobby Wagner finished as PFF’s leader in Stops (at 14.4%) – a statistic that is geared towards measuring how effective a player is in preventing success by the opposing offense.

Like in the 2nd Half of the Texans game last week, Seattle’s Front 7 has got to come out and impose their will on this Colts Offensive Line and stuff the run. If they can do that, the Legion of Boom could have their way in this game.


Reason #5: Cracks in the Wall? …

Another important aspect of this game that’s not received a whole lot of focus frankly is the injury situation of the Colts, particularly as it pertains to their defense. Let me break some of those down for you …

Starting DE Ricky Jean Francois didn’t practice this week due to a groin issue. The one time 49er signed a $22 million deal with the Colts in the offseason – he is a solid player and a real key to their run defense up front. He is out for this game.

Starting FS LaRon Landry didn’t practice this week either due to an ankle injury. Landry is one of the better Free Safeties in the league – a punishing tackler who made the Pro Bowl last season. He’s missed the last 2 games and is out for this game as well.

LB Bjoern Werner didn’t practice all this week with a foot issue. The Colts 1st Round Pick has yet to make a real impact in the NFL, but he is a rush specialist who is also out this Sunday as well.

Starting CB Vontae Davis was limited in practice on Wednesday and did not practice at all on Thursday due to a foot issue. Though he fully practiced on Friday and is listed as Probable, he may not be fully 100% on Sunday.

Edit to Add:

On the injury front, I missed one that could be another significant blow to the Colts in this game -- Starting FB Stanley Havili missed practice all this week with an ankle injury and is OUT for today's game as well.

Starting RB Ahmad Bradshaw didn't practice this week and could be gone for awhile with a neck injury that some are thinking could be serious. That forces Trent Richardson in to more of a featured role ... and he's been far from stellar thus far. And going in to this game without your starting FB as well -- not good if you're a Colts fan.


Unlike the Seahawks, the Colts don’t have near the depth on their roster to compensate for injuries to key spots. Of those listed above, Landry’s absence is undoubtedly the most significant. Delano Howell has started in his place, but he’s been a bit hobbled by a toe injury himself, missing Wednesday’s practice because of it.

Though Seattle is dealing with significant injuries as well (Okung, Unger, Giacomini, and now Zack Miller), Seattle’s depth is far better than Indianapolis’s and they are in a much better position to compensate for it IMO.

Bold Prediction …

In the end, I see this game coming down to Marshawn Lynch and Seattle’s ability to apply pressure on Andrew Luck. If the Lynch is able to flip in to Beast Mode and the Seahawks Front 7 from the 2nd Half of that Texans game shows up this Sunday … then in all honesty this could become a route. Still, I’m going to be conservative and say that the Seahawks take this one by about 10 or so. Let’s call it …

Seahawks 24
Colts 13
 

SalishHawkFan

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Excellent analysis. Thanks. One thing you didn't touch on very much, per FO the Colts are 26th vs the run. Their weakness is to our strength so I expect Lynch to have his best day so far this season.
 

HansGruber

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Trent Richardson has yet to live up to the hype. It was a good trade for Cleveland. Jim Brown, as dislikable as he is, was right when he said Richardson was an average back. The Colts lost the better back when Ahmad Bradshaw was injured. That should reduce their efficiency in the run game.
 

HawKnPeppa

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If they're smart, Indy goes after our Lbers with a short passing game. Not so sure they have the personnel to be as effective as Houston at doing that, but I think they'd be fool hardy to put too much focus on their ground game against the Hawks D.
 

Greenhell

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Good stuff Hawkscanner. I look forward to ur pre-game stuff as much as I look forward to Klearly's post-game write ups.
 

bestfightstory

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Hawkscanner For The Win!!

Outstanding analysis . Reason #3 has me giddy with our D-Line AND Irvin's return.
 
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Hawkscanner

Hawkscanner

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bestfightstory":3atk0nwt said:
Hawkscanner For The Win!!

Outstanding analysis . Reason #3 has me giddy with our D-Line AND Irvin's return.

Thanks guys for the props ... and buried in Reason #3 is another little tidbit that I definitely should have really talked about -- Terrell Pryor. Notice if you will the numbers that the Colts yielded to Pryor ...

Week 1 … Win 21-17 against the Raiders
Terrell Pryor … completed 19/29 passes for 217 yards … 1 TD … 2 INT
Terrell Pryor gained 112 yards on 13 carries

Though the Colts ended up pulling the game out, Terrell Pryor as a running QB absolutely gave them fits. He completed 65.5% of his passes for 217 through the air ... and gains another 112 yards on the ground. And Pryor has great supporting players around him like Rod Streater and Denarius Moore -- Whooof! The Colts keyed on shutting Darren McFadden down, so Pryor basically WAS the Raiders offense in that game and he still gave the Colts fits. The Colts were lucky (literally) in that game, as Luck pulled the game out for the Colts with a TD run late in the 4th Quarter. This game was played in Indianapolis by the way.

If a running QB like Pryor gave the Colts fits like that at home ... who had basically no weapons to speak of ... what will Russell Wilson (who has his share of weapons even if Miller doesn't play) do to them?
 

samwize77

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Hows Luck doing in interceptions this year? Hows both teams doing in turnovers in general? Penalties? All to often these things dictate the outcome of games, as we saw last week.
With all of the great work done in the original post, and I thank you for that btw, REALLY a great read as always, the penalties and turnovers determine so much.
Mistake free football is a hugely under rated stat, if its a stat at all. Goooo Hawks!!!
 

NFL Fan

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samwize77":1ujkbq55 said:
Hows Luck doing in interceptions this year? Hows both teams doing in turnovers in general? Penalties? All to often these things dictate the outcome of games, as we saw last week.
With all of the great work done in the original post, and I thank you for that btw, REALLY a great read as always, the penalties and turnovers determine so much.
Mistake free football is a hugely under rated stat, if its a stat at all. Goooo Hawks!!!
The stats section at nfl.com is a great place to start.
 

Ruminator

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Hawkscanner":218l32co said:
QB Hits Allowed …
Colts … 34 (2nd Most in the NFL)

That’s right people – prior to yesterday’s games, the Colts ranked #2 in the NFL in QB Hits allowed.

This excites me for the feast of pressures, hits, and sacks to be enjoyed by Clemons, Bennett, Avril, Irvin, Wagner, Bryant, Mebane, Wright, and the two McD's. And maybe even Hill if he plays. How I wish this were a Clink game, but should still be a good one!
 

samwize77

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NFL Fan":1t6ybeue said:
samwize77":1t6ybeue said:
Hows Luck doing in interceptions this year? Hows both teams doing in turnovers in general? Penalties? All to often these things dictate the outcome of games, as we saw last week.
With all of the great work done in the original post, and I thank you for that btw, REALLY a great read as always, the penalties and turnovers determine so much.
Mistake free football is a hugely under rated stat, if its a stat at all. Goooo Hawks!!!
The stats section at nfl.com is a great place to start.

Oh yeah, I know that :) I was just asking rhetorical questions. I'm not overly concerned with the answer as much as the results of these things determine so much.
 

Blitzhawk

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samwize77":amq0amhc said:
Hows Luck doing in interceptions this year? Hows both teams doing in turnovers in general? Penalties? All to often these things dictate the outcome of games, as we saw last week.
With all of the great work done in the original post, and I thank you for that btw, REALLY a great read as always, the penalties and turnovers determine so much.
Mistake free football is a hugely under rated stat, if its a stat at all. Goooo Hawks!!!

Luck looks to be good for about 1 int per game and the team for 1 fumble per game. Penalties for colts are 3-3-6-7 in order so they actually play fairly clean (or at least the refs believe they do lol) :stirthepot:

Good stuff as always scanner. I watched a lot of all their games and I agree w/ all of it. Should be an interesting game from both teams to really get an idea where we both stand. My opinion from what I have seen and looked at is this should be a comfortable win for Hawks. That does not mean an easy win or blowout but a 10 pt win would be my guess. Of course, there is always that any given Sunday stuff and you never know who could be "on" or "off."
 

pehawk

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This is great stuff, thanks.

I heard a stat yesterday that Lucks QB rating is 131 between 11-20 yards but 30 (IIRC) beyond that.

That's a bad thing for the Colts, if true. Unless the Seahawks decide to not play physical and jam their WR's.
 
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Hawkscanner

Hawkscanner

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samwize77":xiucvwny said:
Hows Luck doing in interceptions this year? Hows both teams doing in turnovers in general? Penalties? All to often these things dictate the outcome of games, as we saw last week.
With all of the great work done in the original post, and I thank you for that btw, REALLY a great read as always, the penalties and turnovers determine so much.
Mistake free football is a hugely under rated stat, if its a stat at all. Goooo Hawks!!!

As I'm sure you knew, Luck has thrown 5 TD's to only 2 INT's. Now I'm not going to sit here and somehow try to make the argument that Andrew Luck isn't an elite QB -- far from it. Andrew Luck is one of the best QB's in the NFL and I believe when it's all said and done, he might have himself some Super Bowl rings (that is, if Russell Wilson will let him have one -- probably not. LOL.) He just doesn't have a ton of weapons around him right now to help him.

The Colts (as a team) have thrown only 2 interceptions and not had a fumble yet. Meanwhile, their defense has had 6 interceptions and forced 2 fumbles. So, their Give Away/Take Away Margin currently sits at +6 (currently 4th overall)

The Seahawks, on the other hand, have a Give Away/Take Away Margin of +& (3rd in the NFL overall)

On the surface, this looks like a very tough matchup. It's just when I'm looking at evaluating statistics in general, we've got to ask the question -- "Who has the team really played?" Teams can look really great on paper after facing the Raiders and Jaguars.

Completely agreed that playing mistake free football is going to be huge. FWIW, you know who's the least penalized team in the league right now? The Colts -- they're currently averaging only 3.5 penalties/game. The Hawks, on the other hand, are averaging 8.0 (5th worst). THAT's something that certainly has to change come Sunday. We can't afford to go in to a hostile environment and just give away precious yards like that. We'll see for sure.
 
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Hawkscanner

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You know, I talked about the fact that Andrew Luck has had his issues when under pressure ...

Again, according to Pro Football Focus ...

Like Wilson, Luck has had his issues with pressure this year. Taking pressure on 42% of his drop-backs, Luck is the seventh-most pressured QB in the league. He’s avoided sacks slightly better than Wilson, going down on only 15.9% of pressured snaps, but has completed just 43.5% of his throws under pressure.
Source:
https://www.profootballfocus.com/bl...m=rss&utm_campaign=3tfo-seahawks-colts-week-5

How Luck has handled pressure has been a bit of an issue since he was at Stanford. Someone out there made a nice compilation of some of Andrew Luck's more forgettable moments under pressure. It's fairly informative viewing ...
[youtube]2C6PsMSeHYA[/youtube]

Now what's fairly striking to me (if you think about it) is the fact that Andrew Luck made those kind of mistakes -- not with a team devoid of talent and chock full of rookies -- but with a fairly loaded and veteran team in Stanford. If the Hawks can apply pressure consistently, might we see that version of Andrew Luck show up? Should be interesting tomorrow for sure.
 
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