Football Outsiders give the 49ers

[hawkfan68]

On paper, I believe the 49ers have better depth at WR and RB than the Seahawks do. It's even at TE. Seahawks are ahead at QB. We'll see how it translates on the field. Seahawks have done a better job of producing on the field with what they have so hope that continues.

Really?

Not objecting...just not sure why you think it's even.

Receiving wise, Vernon > Zach Miller but Luke Willson > Vance McDonald. Blocking wise, Miller > Davis, Willson > McDonald. Seahawks and 49ers use their tight ends in a different manner. 49ers use them primarily as receivers while the Seahawks use them for blocking.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Really?

Not objecting...just not sure why you think it's even.

We think we actually have a couple of pretty good receiving tight ends, but since nobody has ever seen a Seattle TE catch an actual pass since the Pete Carroll era started because we've needed our tight ends to block exclusively for an oft-injured and always-mediocre-at-best offensive line, we don't really know.

 

[Largent80]

Speculation sounds like speculum. And the 9ers are from SF, they don't need speculums.

 

[Marvin49]

On paper, I believe the 49ers have better depth at WR and RB than the Seahawks do. It's even at TE. Seahawks are ahead at QB. We'll see how it translates on the field. Seahawks have done a better job of producing on the field with what they have so hope that continues.

Really?

Not objecting...just not sure why you think it's even.

Receiving wise, Vernon > Zach Miller but Luke Willson > Vance McDonald. Blocking wise, Miller > Davis, Willson > McDonald. Seahawks and 49ers use their tight ends in a different manner. 49ers use them primarily as receivers while the Seahawks use them for blocking.

I'd argue Vernon and the blocking part...he's one of the best blocking TEs in the league. Niners also run just as much if not more than the Seahawks do (haven't looked up the stats to see exact number) and run 2 TEs ALOT as their base formation...so not sure why you think the Niners TEs are used "primarily as receivers".

As for McDonald...he's better than you think, but he hasn't proved it yet on the field so I'll let that one be.

 

[Marvin49]

Johnson is having a "dreadful" camp according to Grant Cohn (Beat writer in the bay area)

Cohn on Johnson....really? The surest way to lower your IQ is to pay attention to Grant Cohn (tho his dad Lowell is a close second).

In Grant's most recent column he writes that the Seahawks' whole defense is going to be mediocre this year because their DBs aren't allowed to hold anymore.

Dude's a clown.


(edit: FWIW though Marv I think Lowell is even worse than Grant. I'd even put Grant ahead of Kawakami TBH, although the three of them are definitely the triumvirate of idiocy in Bay Area sports journalism, which is overall really strong.)

Yeah, that's fair....The Cohns and Kawakami are the triplets of nonsense in Bay Area sports. All three of them try only to say the unpopular thing I order to get attention. It never makes any sense though.

 

[Marvin49]

Really?

Not objecting...just not sure why you think it's even.

We think we actually have a couple of pretty good receiving tight ends, but since nobody has ever seen a Seattle TE catch an actual pass since the Pete Carroll era started because we've needed our tight ends to block exclusively for an oft-injured and always-mediocre-at-best offensive line, we don't really know.

Makes sense.

 

[kearly]

I don't think this happens. But if it did, Seattle's chance to repeat as champs will shoot through the roof. Heck, even if SF finishes 10-6 that bodes extremely well for Seattle.

Keep in mind though that these projections are insanely conservative by nature. Seattle themselves are only projected to have 9.8 wins in this model.

The 49ers defense is going to suck early in the season, but it probably won't matter much. There's a good chance that both Smith and Bowman could suit up by week 7. The six games they'd miss? Dallas, Bears, Eagles, Chiefs, Cardinals, and Rams. All games SF will likely be favored to win. Oh, and the seventh game where they have a good chance to return? Denver. Followed with a bye. I don't know if it was on purpose but the schedule makers loved the 49ers this year.

There are just 3 games on the schedule this year that I look at and think "SF should lose this game." @DEN, @NO, @SEA. They will be favored most likely in the other 13 games, and outside of maybe Denver there isn't a team in the NFL that is better at beating inferior teams than SF.

I think they are a 10-14 win team, even with an ailing defense. Kaepernick had that offense rolling when Crabtree came back. I think Stevie Johnson and Carlos Hyde were very nice additions on the offense as well. I just have a really, really hard time seeing SF at 9-7 or 8-8 barring an injury to Kaepernick.

 

[loafoftatupu]

I don't need to get into why, but to me the Niners have a 80% chance of making the playoffs.

The Hawks and Niners are both going to make it again if healthy. They are just too good, few teams can match up with either of these units for 4 quarters and it shows in their recent records. The Niners do the same things as the Hawks. There are just strengths in different places with serviceable players in others. Good coaching and hard nosed football. Very difficult to beat.

To say either team is going to regress is speculation. There are a lot of conditions that need to take place for either of these teams to forfeit their place.

 

[loafoftatupu]

The only thing that I think is over hyped about the Niners is the addition of weapons for K-Choke. How much ADDED production can really be had by a WR in an offense that relies on the run, with a QB that has a genuine problem seeing secondary receivers? It could be pressure that forces CK to pull that ball down and run, it could be that CK just likes knowing where he is going before the ball is snapped, whatever it is, the issue is real.

Adding Johnson doesn't really show me value when the Niners are best in a ball control system. Are the digits willing to put that defense on the field for a longer period of time?

Everything else about SF is as legit as we already know. Fortunately the Hawks are just as legit only with more continuity.

 

[loafoftatupu]

Makes sense.

Shut up Marvin.

 

[RolandDeschain]

If I were a 49ers fan, I'd be more concerned about Kaepernick's habit to not progress through very many reads the majority of the time.

Rather than just blurt out the numbers, I recommend that 49ers fans (or anybody, for that matter) go look up the number of different receivers that Kaepernick completed a pass to in each game last year, then do the same for Wilson.

It's a rather stark contrast.

 

[loafoftatupu]

But Roland in camp K-Choke is a an entirely new QB. He completes a higher percentage of his passes and goes through his progressions.

Just look at the progress he made last year between 12-13. :|

 

[RolandDeschain]

Time will tell, my very young apprentice.

 

[Marvin49]

Makes sense.

Shut up Marvin.

Now THAT should be your signature.

 

[Marvin49]

If I were a 49ers fan, I'd be more concerned about Kaepernick's habit to not progress through very many reads the majority of the time.

Rather than just blurt out the numbers, I recommend that 49ers fans (or anybody, for that matter) go look up the number of different receivers that Kaepernick completed a pass to in each game last year, then do the same for Wilson.

It's a rather stark contrast.

Might want to actually look at who was playing WR too.

SPOILER: Most of them not on the team anymore because they couldn't get open to save their lives.

 

[loafoftatupu]

Makes sense.

Shut up Marvin.

Now THAT should be your signature.

I can't help it. I went to get the girls from a night of drinking and I had to separate a drunkard from cleavage that belongs to me. As I did so, the slobbering idiot said with bubbles coming out of his mouth

"The life you lose may be your own".

I was tempted to just lightly push him, which would have sent him on a collision course with the floor, but I just didn't have the heart. This was one of those cross-eyed drunks that was still staring at the girls' chests as he pseudo-threatened me.

I will change it soon..

 

[loafoftatupu]

Might want to actually look at who was playing WR too.

SPOILER: Most of them not on the team anymore because they couldn't get open to save their lives.

SPOILER: Being open has not been a variable that K-Choke factored into his decision. He has a thing for getting that ball to the guy he chose to early in the process.

Many times it works. Sometimes it goes straight to the defendant (err I mean defender) sometimes the defender drops it, sometimes he doesn't and sometimes it gets tipped. :shock:

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

If I were a 49ers fan, I'd be more concerned about Kaepernick's habit to not progress through very many reads the majority of the time.

Rather than just blurt out the numbers, I recommend that 49ers fans (or anybody, for that matter) go look up the number of different receivers that Kaepernick completed a pass to in each game last year, then do the same for Wilson.

It's a rather stark contrast.

Might want to actually look at who was playing WR too.

SPOILER: Most of them not on the team anymore because they couldn't get open to save their lives.

Stevie is good but too bad that Pete and Sherman are better.It's called adaptation and intelligence something neither he or Krapperdink have never shown.

 

[loafoftatupu]

Stevie is good but too bad that Pete and Sherman are better.It's called adaptation and intelligence something neither he or Krapperdink have never shown.

Sherman will draw Johnson here and there. His length will help tremendously against pure speed. I get the feeling that ET is going to have more to do with Johnson than anyone. This assumes CK has the time to get Johnson the ball in a place downfield.

I could see the Niners having some big plays in those games against weak defensive teams.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Might want to actually look at who was playing WR too.

SPOILER: Most of them not on the team anymore because they couldn't get open to save their lives.

This isn't really the direction you want to go in. Russell Wilson's first regular season game, (week one of his rookie season, @ Arizona) he completed five passes to Braylon Edwards, cut a few weeks later. Next highest # of passes that game completed to Sidney Rice, four passes. Kaepernick's first game as a starter (week 11 in 2012, home vs. Bears) saw him complete six passes to Vernon Davis and then three to Michael Crabtree. After he had ridden the pine for more than a year-and-a-half and had gotten intermittent regular season game experience here and there.

Like I mentioned about 2013 though, let's take a look, I'll post the numbers anyways for the regular season:

Kaepernick's # of different receivers he completed a pass to per game: 5.50
Wilson's # of different receivers he completed a pass to per game: 6.81

Kaepernick's total # of pass attempts: 416
Wilson's total # of pass attempts: 407

Kaepernick's total # of completed passes: 243
Wilson's total # of completed passes: 257

Our top WR, Percy Harvin, played in exactly one game by the way, so don't pretend like only the 49ers had to deal with WR injuries.

Wilson averaged completing a pass to 1.31 more receivers per game than Kaepernick (a ~20% difference!) while tossing the pigskin fewer times. Also, Kaepernick had more playoff experience at that point including playing in a Super Bowl, and an extra YEAR sitting around in the league learning over Wilson, though yes he had fewer regular season starts.

Nobody can debate that Wilson is considerably better at spreading the ball around than Kaepernick.