Football Outsiders give the 49ers

[MizzouHawkGal]

Stevie is good but too bad that Pete and Sherman are better.It's called adaptation and intelligence something neither he or Krapperdink have never shown.

Sherman will draw Johnson here and there. His length will help tremendously against pure speed. I get the feeling that ET is going to have more to do with Johnson than anyone. This assumes CK has the time to get Johnson the ball in a place downfield.

I could see the Niners having some big plays in those games against weak defensive teams.

I don't disagree exactly but my point is that 2014's defense will have different wrinkles then 2013 because Pete is a defensive innovator. Just like the offense will be balanced at the very least if only because of Wilson's growth and Percy's health.

 

[Sourdough #49]

Might want to actually look at who was playing WR too.

SPOILER: Most of them not on the team anymore because they couldn't get open to save their lives.

This isn't really the direction you want to go in. Russell Wilson's first regular season game, (week one of his rookie season, @ Arizona) he completed five passes to Braylon Edwards, cut a few weeks later. Next highest # of passes that game completed to Sidney Rice, four passes. Kaepernick's first game as a starter (week 11 in 2012, home vs. Bears) saw him complete six passes to Vernon Davis and then three to Michael Crabtree. After he had ridden the pine for more than a year-and-a-half and had gotten intermittent regular season game experience here and there.

Like I mentioned about 2013 though, let's take a look, I'll post the numbers anyways for the regular season:

Kaepernick's # of different receivers he completed a pass to per game: 5.50
Wilson's # of different receivers he completed a pass to per game: 6.81

Kaepernick's total # of pass attempts: 416
Wilson's total # of pass attempts: 407

Kaepernick's total # of completed passes: 243
Wilson's total # of completed passes: 257

Our top WR, Percy Harvin, played in exactly one game by the way, so don't pretend like only the 49ers had to deal with WR injuries.

Wilson averaged completing a pass to 1.31 more receivers per game than Kaepernick (a ~20% difference!) while tossing the pigskin fewer times. Also, Kaepernick had more playoff experience at that point including playing in a Super Bowl, and an extra YEAR sitting around in the league learning over Wilson, though yes he had fewer regular season starts.

Nobody can debate that Wilson is considerably better at spreading the ball around than Kaepernick.

What is the stat on how many years they each spent in a pro offense before they started in the NFL?
I think any intelligent fan from the get go figured as long as Wilson could overcome his physical limitations in height he had a shot. Kap was a project with all the physical intangibles you could want but played in a gimmick offense, not comfortable in the pocket, and bad habits. I will be interested to see where both starters are in the next two years. They both work their butts off and have the it factor to want to be great. The true test will be if either teams defenses falter enough to force these QB's to win the games for them. Right now both Qb's have a nice security blanket that most other young Qb's don't have the luxury of such as Luck. I am not getting into who is the best young Qb argument but if you have a solid D you don't need to take as many chances because you have your D to bail you out.

 

[Sourdough #49]

Stevie is good but too bad that Pete and Sherman are better.It's called adaptation and intelligence something neither he or Krapperdink have never shown.

Sherman will draw Johnson here and there. His length will help tremendously against pure speed. I get the feeling that ET is going to have more to do with Johnson than anyone. This assumes CK has the time to get Johnson the ball in a place downfield.

I could see the Niners having some big plays in those games against weak defensive teams.

I don't disagree exactly but my point is that 2014's defense will have different wrinkles then 2013 because Pete is a defensive innovator. Just like the offense will be balanced at the very least if only because of Wilson's growth and Percy's health.

I watched 4 of your games last year so I am certainly no expert on Seattle however, I was under the impression that because of how athletically gifted and physical your defense is you don't really run anything exotic allowing your players to play faster. I also argue the Wilson factor of growth. He played lights out last year and you really couldn't ask any more of him outside of if he had a better O-line. Harvin being healthy is a huge deal and will help your guys offensively quite a bit.

 

[Scottemojo]

It was an insider article, but I have to assume that that is actually not a bad number. 4th highest in the NFC? For a team in the NFC West?

The Niners have more IFs this year than most years, and I thought Tim Ryan said it best on SIRIUS last night, when he sad that IF the Niners stay healthy at a few key areas, they are one of if not the best teams in the NFL. Which of course is a generalization that is true for every team, but his point was that they have a little less depth at a few spots than they are used too.

Doesn't mean they aren't good enough to win a trophy.

What was Seattle's chances given at?

 

[Marvin49]

Might want to actually look at who was playing WR too.

SPOILER: Most of them not on the team anymore because they couldn't get open to save their lives.

This isn't really the direction you want to go in. Russell Wilson's first regular season game, (week one of his rookie season, @ Arizona) he completed five passes to Braylon Edwards, cut a few weeks later. Next highest # of passes that game completed to Sidney Rice, four passes. Kaepernick's first game as a starter (week 11 in 2012, home vs. Bears) saw him complete six passes to Vernon Davis and then three to Michael Crabtree. After he had ridden the pine for more than a year-and-a-half and had gotten intermittent regular season game experience here and there.

Like I mentioned about 2013 though, let's take a look, I'll post the numbers anyways for the regular season:

Kaepernick's # of different receivers he completed a pass to per game: 5.50
Wilson's # of different receivers he completed a pass to per game: 6.81

Kaepernick's total # of pass attempts: 416
Wilson's total # of pass attempts: 407

Kaepernick's total # of completed passes: 243
Wilson's total # of completed passes: 257

Our top WR, Percy Harvin, played in exactly one game by the way, so don't pretend like only the 49ers had to deal with WR injuries.

Wilson averaged completing a pass to 1.31 more receivers per game than Kaepernick (a ~20% difference!) while tossing the pigskin fewer times. Also, Kaepernick had more playoff experience at that point including playing in a Super Bowl, and an extra YEAR sitting around in the league learning over Wilson, though yes he had fewer regular season starts.

Nobody can debate that Wilson is considerably better at spreading the ball around than Kaepernick.

Who was arguing that?

I was simply referring to the absolute lack of talent at the WR position in SF last year. Crab hurt, Davis hobbled and out a few times, Willimas horrific, Baldwin useless, Patton hurt....the only viable NFL WR in the bunch was Boldin and he was getting doubled all the time.

That changed quite a bit when Crab came back, but for a big portion of the season Kap was dropping back and seeing WRs blanketed.

I'd have LOVED to have the Seattle WRs last year. At least all the guys on the field were competent players able to get open from time to time.

I'm not going to ague that Kap doesn't need to work on his progressions (and he's admitted as such), but my comment had only to do with the lack of depth at WR last year.

 

[RichNhansom]

Didn't Ballke (so) put that receiving corp on the field? You could also look at Wilson for the reason partly of their success.

Lap went to Nevada and played in that gimmicky offense. Why didn't he choose a better program? Or why didn't a better program choose him?

There is a reason Wilson is ahead and it is because he always has been. I doubt that ever changes because maturity is a big part of that reason.

 

[RolandDeschain]

I'm not sure the 49ers WR corps was as terrible as is being implied by Marvin. Lockette caught a pass in the Super Bowl and was even running some routes before garbage time, but you guys had cut him; he was a part-timer for us the last half of the season, seeing regular but limited action.

 

[Marvin49]

Didn't Ballke (so) put that receiving corp on the field? You could also look at Wilson for the reason partly of their success.

Lap went to Nevada and played in that gimmicky offense. Why didn't he choose a better program? Or why didn't a better program choose him?

There is a reason Wilson is ahead and it is because he always has been. I doubt that ever changes because maturity is a big part of that reason.

Lets take on a few of those....

1) Yeah. So?

2) He had ONE scholarship offer out of High School to play football. He was drafted to play baseball but wanted to play football. If you took a look at him as a High School senior it might make sense...he was 6'5" and like 170 lbs. Skinny as a rail and believe it or not, not really known as a mobile QB. 60-70 lbs and ALOT of work later...he looks a bit different.

3) Debatable....what's not debatable tho is that he spent a lot of time in college in Pro Style offenses. Only natural he'd be ahead of the curve. Will it remain that way? Possible, but not a forgone conclusion. Smart kid with a good head on his shoulders. I've never at any point ripped Wilson on this site. All the respect in the world for him. I just like Kap too.

 

[Marvin49]

I'm not sure the 49ers WR corps was as terrible as is being implied by Marvin. Lockette caught a pass in the Super Bowl and was even running some routes before garbage time, but you guys had cut him; he was a part-timer for us the last half of the season, seeing regular but limited action.

LOL. If you say so.

After Boldin, they were looking at Kyle Williams coming off and ACL tear (and then got released and tore his ACL AGAIN in KC), Jon Baldwin who flat sucked and couldn't get separation of any kind, Quinton Patton who spent most of the year on the sideline with a broken foot, and Kassim Osgood who was on the team primarily as a special teams player.

That's it.

Name ONE of those guys that was better than any WR in Seattle who got any kind of significant playing time.

There is a reason that even with Crab coming back the Niners still traded for Stevie Johnson and drafted Bruce Ellington. They were not gonna be stuck again the way they were last year.

If you want to see what the difference is with competent receivers, look at the stats after Crab came back...and that was with him far from 100% returning from a freakin' torn Achilles.

Pre Crabs return:

56.2 Comp%, 2037 Yards, 14 TDs, 7 INTs, 86.58 Rating

Post Crabs return

61.7 Comp%, 1160 Yards, 7 TDs, 1 INT, 101.3 Rating


Its also not like Crab started tearing it up BTW either. He was over 100 only once in that span. He was simply a competent WR to prevent doubles on Boldin.

 

[RolandDeschain]

*rolls eyes*

You think Wilson completed most of his passes to open receivers? Look again, we do not have some mythical unicorn stable of receivers that get separation a lot.

Alrighty, Marvin. Whatever you say.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Marvin, I've taken a screenshot from the Super Bowl showing how the receiver the 49ers cut for being too much of a scrub is catching a pass while having perfect coverage on him to demonstrate that you don't need receivers getting separation to have a passing game. I hope this helps, and you might get Kaepernick to take a peek as well, it seems like it could benefit him, too.

Separation is nice; it's a convenience. It's also entirely unnecessary, assuming you have a quarterback that can pass a ball where he wants it to go.

 

[Sac]

It's called "throwing receivers open". Russ does it, Kaep not so much.

 

[Marvin49]

*rolls eyes*

You think Wilson completed most of his passes to open receivers? Look again, we do not have some mythical unicorn stable of receivers that get separation a lot.

Alrighty, Marvin. Whatever you say.

Dude...not that complicated.

No, I don't think Seattle had a mythical unicorn stable of receivers. Stop making it about Wilson. I didn't bring him up.

I think Seattle had serviceable receivers. Behind Boldin, SF did not. Really not that complicated. Are you really gonna sing the praises of an injured Kyle Williams, Jon Baldwin and Kassim Osgood? Really? I'll give you the choice...Is there an one of those guys you'd take over Tate, Baldwin or Kearse?

Come on. Its not close.

 

[Marvin49]

Marvin, I've taken a screenshot from the Super Bowl showing how the receiver the 49ers cut for being too much of a scrub is catching a pass while having perfect coverage on him to demonstrate that you don't need receivers getting separation to have a passing game. I hope this helps, and you might get Kaepernick to take a peek as well, it seems like it could benefit him, too.

Separation is nice; it's a convenience. It's also entirely unnecessary, assuming you have a quarterback that can pass a ball where he wants it to go.

Sigh...

I know about throwing guys open and putting the ball in tight windows. Take a look at pretty much all of Boldins 2013 season.

You guys are really gonna make the case that Kyle Williams, Jon Baldwin, and Kassim Osgood being at WR had nothing to do with Kaps passing numbers? Really?

OK...I guess we're in fantasy land.

 

[RolandDeschain]

You are the one that has been citing lack of separation in a big way, Marvin. Not us. Since the 49ers cut Lockette, presumably every receiver you had was better than he is, and since he's able to make a catch here and there with perfect coverage...

Here, I'll Pro Football Mock Roethlisberger it:

HE'S SAYING THAT PRESUMABLY YOUR RECEIVERS WERE GOOD ENOUGH TO HAVE A FINE PASSING GAME IF YOU'RE CUTTING GUYS THAT WE USED IN THE SUPER BOWL WHO ARE CATCHING BALLS IN TIGHT COVERAGE, THEREFORE YOUR EXCUSE OF RECEIVERS NOT GETTING SEPARATION IS SIMPLY AN OLD AND TIRED DEFENSE OF KAEPERNICK'S INABILITY TO GET STUFF DONE WITH HIS ARM.

 

[hawker84]

49ers are stacked on offense, especially deep at most skill positions, and yes i think Kap will be much improved this season. However they have taken some hits on defense with bowman out for a while, Aldon being Aldon, and Dorsey out, plus an aging JS, none of this matters for the very reason:

the same thing thats killed them the last two seasons, is the same thing that's going to kill them this season. Their secondary.. I'm a huge fan of Reid, and the new safety Bathea ( i think) is decent, but their corners are average at best and they will be tested early and often....

So where i think the offense will be better especially with Johnson, and will win them a bunch of games, the secondary will lose them some games and unfortunately for whiner fans, will keep them out of the dance yet again.

JMO

 

[Marvin49]

You are the one that has been citing lack of separation in a big way, Marvin. Not us. Since the 49ers cut Lockette, presumably every receiver you had was better than he is, and since he's able to make a catch here and there with perfect coverage...

Here, I'll Pro Football Mock Roethlisberger it:

HE'S SAYING THAT PRESUMABLY YOUR RECEIVERS WERE GOOD ENOUGH TO HAVE A FINE PASSING GAME IF YOU'RE CUTTING GUYS THAT WE USED IN THE SUPER BOWL WHO ARE CATCHING BALLS IN TIGHT COVERAGE, THEREFORE YOUR EXCUSE OF RECEIVERS NOT GETTING SEPARATION IS SIMPLY AN OLD AND TIRED DEFENSE OF KAEPERNICK'S INABILITY TO GET STUFF DONE WITH HIS ARM.

I said when Kap dropped back all he saw was guys blanketed in coverage. LOL.

If you think THAT is an unrealistic criticism, I dunno what to tell you.

Tom Brady had one of his worst seasons in the NFL last year from a QB rating perspective. Why? Lack of talent at WR.

Brady is one of the best of all time, but I guess that's different because he doesn't play QB for the 49ers and therefore immune to the "must be able to throw to any receiver at any time even if the guy can't get open" logic. That only applies to QBs who wear red and gold whom you don't like. Nope...in order for HIM to be any good he has to be able to throw passes to my dead grandmother...you know, by "throwing her open".

Hell...why ever draft a WR when you can just pick up hobos off the street because all they have to do is stand there and any QB worth his salt will take care of the D all by himself. Seems an awful waste then to trade a #1 pick for Harvin then...you know...with Wilsons ability to throw to anyone and all.

It's all good, but lets be real about why you think what you think...and it has nothing to do with reality.

and BTW...as for Lockette...what were his season stats again? 5 catches. World beater that one.

 

[Sac]

Brady had one of the worst seasons...for him. Still threw for 4000 yards and Edelman still caught 100 passes.

 

[Marvin49]

Brady had one of the worst seasons...for him. Still threw for 4000 yards and Edelman still caught 100 passes.

...and a QB rating of 87.3.

4 points LOWER than Kaepernick.

The point was that Bradys passing suffered because of substandard players at the position. Why oh why then is it so ludicrous to say the same of Kaepernick?

The answer is because he plays QB for the 49ers and this is a Seattle forum. Plain and simple.

Not really complaining tho....par for the course....just calling it out for what it is.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Nobody's saying it doesn't matter, we're just saying you're using it as TOO much of an excuse in favor of Kaepernick.