Is Russell Wilson worth 6 years $129m???

[MizzouHawkGal]

Theres no set number yet for what its going up too. I think we should wait for the guaranteed cap increase before we assume its a big enough number to support that kinda contract.

For sure but it does seem obvious that the cap will be going up pretty substantially.

Hopefully, if we see another 10 million jump, then the first contract listed is more than doable, and it should be done. But the $150 mark is still to far off the radar.

I agree but anything between 6y/108-132M is right in the going rate.

 

[brimsalabim]

I wonder though how much competition would there be for him on the open market considering his playing style? He fits perfectly with what Pete want's but who else that needs a QB runs an offense suited to Russ? I know Marc Trestman covets him and I could see the Jet's getting involved maybe but I'm not sure what our completion would be like.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

Pretty substantial given multiple teams were going to draft him (Philadelphia being one) and he has done nothing to prove he's anything but elite or right at elite.

 

[McGruff]

I'm going to get killed for it, but I wouldn't pay it. With all of the pieces we have and the defense we have, there are a lot of quarterbacks out there that we can win Super Bowls with.

TJack, Baby!

 

[HansGruber]

Everyone is too low. If he's got a good agent, it'll be 6 yrs, $150m, $80m guaranteed

So who are we cutting to get to that number?

With Sherman, Percy, bennets and ET's contracts, then add on this duzy. We will have to field the rest of the team with rookie contracts only.

What a gamble that will be.

No. Early estimates is that the cap will be increasing by $20m next season. The new Sunday Ticket deal with DirectTV alone just brought in additional new revenues of approx $500m/yr. Divided by 32 teams and halved toward the cap and you're looking at about $8m/yr per team. New advertising revenue has not yet been released, but I've read reports that SB48 generated over $400m in new revenue as well. There will be other forms of revenue.

Not all that money for Wilson's contract will come under the cap expansion, but if you have to cut a few guys, you do it. There's not one person on this team that is worth more than Wilson, and he makes every single player vastly better. Without Russell Wilson, Golden Tate wouldn't even be playing in the NFL right now. His stats were garbage until Wilson showed up, then he was able to get paid. Baldwin and Kearse, same thing. They're not even starters on other teams. Wilson has also boosted Marshawn's stats dramatically, just look it up. With that dual threat out of the backfield, the read option isn't just viable, it's a very deadly weapon - and that will continue to be true no matter who our RB is later, because Wilson is what makes that dangerous.

We don't need to do anything for Sherman, Percy, Bennett or Earl Thomas (or Chancellor). John and Pete have already stated that those contracts were signed with Wilson's contract in mind. Nobody's mentioned numbers except for John Clayton, who stated on the air in the offseason that the Seahawks are expecting to pay Wilson $25m/yr on a 6yr deal minimum, and that all the contracts this offseason were signed with that number in mind.

I can't think of anyone outside of Bobby Wagner that I'd be worried about this offseason. Yes, we have a number of good to great players coming up for contracts. But Wilson is #1 on that list and it's not close. As long as you have Wilson, a decent RB, a mediocre OL, and a decent to mediocre WR corps, this team will be competitive year-in and year-out. Honestly, he's a step above Tom Brady because of his dual threat status, and that will be reflected in his contract as well as the FACT that he is going to make the Seahawks a perennial contender as long as he is here.

 

[oldhawkfan]

:shock:

I'm going to get killed for it, but I wouldn't pay it. With all of the pieces we have and the defense we have, there are a lot of quarterbacks out there that we can win Super Bowls with.

:roll:

 

[Basis4day]

Hes worth a lot. Yes.

 

[Popeyejones]

I'm going to get killed for it, but I wouldn't pay it. With all of the pieces we have and the defense we have, there are a lot of quarterbacks out there that we can win Super Bowls with.

Yeah, I think that's the interesting conversation. It's really two different questions, IMO:

Question 1: Is RW worth 6/129?

I think he's IS worth 6/129. He hasn't developed as quickly as I thought he would in some of the problem areas that I think will hamper him long term, but he still has a chance to get there and the things he does well he does so well that it overshadows some of those things.

Question 2: Is RW worth 6/129 FOR THE SEAHAWKS?

That's a little trickier, and I think it's a very legitimate question.

I will say that I don't buy the argument that he's worth it because the defense has taken a step back. That's mistaking carts for horses. Instead, the defense has taken a step back because the team has let people go BECAUSE they need to clear room for Wilson's contract. These things aren't independent. You can't say the Seahawks need Wilson because they don't have as good of a D-line rotation this year because they don't have Bryant, Clemons, and McDonald in order to clear room for Wilson. Same with #2 and #3 CB.

There's going to be more too. Add up these five guys and throw in Golden Tate to boot and you're still only at 14 million of Wilson's expected 22-24 milliion. Throw in Marshawn Lynch and Bobby Wagner and you get up to what you're trading Russell Wilson for.

That makes sense for some teams (like the Packers or Saints), but for teams like the Hawks which win with the running game and defense it being worth it or not is a much more legitimate question.

As I've posted before, for teams that win with running game and defense like the Hawks, 49ers, and Chiefs, I just think the math has to be different. Wilson is a better player than Kap, but for a team that wins with running and defense is he 8 million a year better? I'm not sure. Same story with Kap and Alex Smith (is Kap six million a year better for that type of team), or Wilson and Alex Smith (Wilson is obviously better, but is he 13 million a year better?).

Basically, Wilson could very well be worth 22 million per year, but to answer that question, the Seahawks have to change what makes them successful and what type of team they are. There's not a right answer to that, but it's the risk that's being taken.

DISCLAIMER: I'm NOT bagging on Wilson. Even when I say he hasn't developed as much as I expected in the areas I thought he needed to develop, I still think he's the most promising of the young QBs, with Luck a close second.

 

[HansGruber]

Is Russell Wilson worth more than Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jay Cutler? How much more? Those guys are all making over $20m/yr.

Then again, their cap hits are all mostly under $20m/yr. Cap hit is what is important.

The Seahawks will find a way to get Wilson paid, without taking a huge cap hit. His "real" pay will be around $25m/yr, but his cap hit will likely be right around $20-21m/yr.

 

[Popeyejones]

Is Russell Wilson worth more than Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jay Cutler? How much more? Those guys are all making over $20m/yr..

Well, you're just picking the guys making over 20 million that NOBODY thinks is worth over 20. It's putting your finger on the scale, a little bit. :lol:

A more straightforward way to do it would be to establish a list of the QBs who people think ARE worth over 20 million per year and ask if Wilson is worth as much to the Hawks as those guys are to their teams.

 

[Anonymous]

It'll end up being over $130m.

Write that down.

 

[DavidSeven]

If you don't pay it to him, someone else will. You guys wanna go up against a Russell Wilson led Rams/Cards team while we're rolling with T-Jack or some Matt Flynn clone? How's that going to turn out?

 

[NorCalSeahawk]

I don't see Wilson will get short changed by the Hawks, but I see him getting a longer, guaranteed contract, so the guaranteed money is spread out over a longer period and the cap hit is a little less (I herd about that idea on Brock and Salk and I could see that happeneing).

He's worth getting paid like a top 5 QB and he should be. He is also young and proven, so he should be good for at least 5-7 more years unless the O-line gets him killed.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

If you don't pay it to him, someone else will. You guys wanna go up against a Russell Wilson led Rams/Cards team while we're rolling with T-Jack or some Matt Flynn clone? How's that going to turn out?

We pretty much did that from 1976-2012 so we already know that ending.

 

[Chawks1]

Keep in mind if we do resign RW to franchise type contract extension at the end of 2014 he is still only scheduled to make about $800k next year!!! 2015 Cap hit would be this plus any prorated signing bonus on the extension. The big dollars would count starting in 2016..... I'm pretty confident the cap will be considerably higher by then and thus team friendly to fit this type of contract into it.

JS is a smart dude and has a winning formula with a steady eye on his 3 year plan for the team. He will find a way.

Go Hawks!

 

[edogg23]

Is Russell Wilson worth more than Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jay Cutler? How much more? Those guys are all making over $20m/yr.

Then again, their cap hits are all mostly under $20m/yr. Cap hit is what is important.

The Seahawks will find a way to get Wilson paid, without taking a huge cap hit. His "real" pay will be around $25m/yr, but his cap hit will likely be right around $20-21m/yr.

What? You can backload a contract and cut the player before they get to that part of the contract, but that doesn't sound like something you would do to your franchise QB. If the cap hit is lower one year, its going to have to be higher another year. It's not magic. If you give a guy a 150 million dollar contract and you don't cut them or restructure, the cap hit is going to be 150 million in the end when you add it up. Now you can throw in contract escalators and stuff, but I think even those if activated end up counting some how.

 

[volsunghawk]

I will say that I don't buy the argument that he's worth it because the defense has taken a step back. That's mistaking carts for horses. Instead, the defense has taken a step back because the team has let people go BECAUSE they need to clear room for Wilson's contract. These things aren't independent. You can't say the Seahawks need Wilson because they don't have as good of a D-line rotation this year because they don't have Bryant, Clemons, and McDonald in order to clear room for Wilson. Same with #2 and #3 CB.

The argument wasn't that he's worth it BECAUSE the defense has taken a step back. The point I was making is that you can't just bank on the defense always carrying the team to championships. The Bears have had a damn fine defense for most of their existence since the mid 1980s, but it hasn't gotten then a Lombardi since 1985.

Saying that Seattle wins with defense now, so we can jettison a franchise QB without much concern is ridiculous notion. Wilson is one of the 5 most important players on the team, and he plays a position that comes with a premium price tag. It would be ludicrous to try and lowball Wilson just because we've got a great D right now. You pay your franchise players. If you need to save money, do it by replacing middle-tier guys with young talent on rookie contracts. You let guys like Giacomini and Maragos go.... not a franchise QB.

And for the record, the guys who were released/allowed to leave in FA weren't just departing because of Wilson's upcoming deal. The team locked down Bennett, Thomas, and Sherman long-term this offseason. Those deals weren't cheap.

 

[Tical21]

In my scenario, I'm fairly confident that Pete and JS could find a replacement better than Flynn or TJack. He probably won't be as good as Wilson, but I think with a pretty good QB and 20 extra million to improve other positions, we can win multiple Super Bowls.
I know full well that we will be just like everybody else and pay our QB about as much as he wants, I just wouldn't do it personally. Paying any player that much is dangerous, and you had better be 100% sure he is the right guy. Now the part I will really get killed for....I'm not 100% that Russell is THAT guy.

 

[iigakusei]

In my scenario, I'm fairly confident that Pete and JS could find a replacement better than Flynn or TJack. He probably won't be as good as Wilson, but I think with a pretty good QB and 20 extra million to improve other positions, we can win multiple Super Bowls.
I know full well that we will be just like everybody else and pay our QB about as much as he wants, I just wouldn't do it personally. Paying any player that much is dangerous, and you had better be 100% sure he is the right guy. Now the part I will really get killed for....I'm not 100% that Russell is THAT guy.

I consider you one of the smarter posters on this board, so I would be interested to hear why you aren't convinced.

 

[Popeyejones]

The point I was making is that you can't just bank on the defense always carrying the team to championships.

Oh, yeah, for sure. I don't disagree with that. The point I was making is that for a team that relies on defense and the run it's UNCLEAR if you can bank on Wilson carrying the team to a championship given that to pay him you're going ot have to take away from your salary allotment in those other areas. . 22 million doesn't come from nowhere. Every dollar you spend one place is a dollar you can't spend another place. My point was that by paying him that much you're going to have to weaken other areas in which you excel, and possibly change the way you've been winning. (a 9ers critical example: I looooooooove Willis and Bowman, but it's a very real question if the money spent on big money for two ILBs could have been better spent on one ILB and somewhere else -- clearly seen right now without Bowman playing and the run defense still being stout, or last year without Willis playing and the run defense still being stout).

Saying that Seattle wins with defense now, so we can jettison a franchise QB without much concern is ridiculous notion.

Absolutely. That said, if you can find someone who said the Hawks can just jettison a franchise QB without much concern, then you and I should laugh at that person together, though.

Wilson is one of the 5 most important players on the team, and he plays a position that comes with a premium price tag. It would be ludicrous to try and lowball Wilson just because we've got a great D right now. You pay your franchise players. If you need to save money, do it by replacing middle-tier guys with young talent on rookie contracts. You let guys like Giacomini and Maragos go.... not a franchise QB.

The only thing I disagree with here is that you can pay Russell Wilson an extra 20-22 million a year by letting guys like Giacomini and MMaragos go. That's ludicrous. To pay that kind of coin you're going to have to let A LOT more than a backup safety and marginal tackle walk. :lol:

And for the record, the guys who were released/allowed to leave in FA weren't just departing because of Wilson's upcoming deal. The team locked down Bennett, Thomas, and Sherman long-term this offseason. Those deals weren't cheap.

Yeah, that's part of the equation too. It doesn't change that Wilson's 22 million is going to have to come from somewhere. The Hawks can do that however they want, though. Think of it this way: Sherman, Thomas, and Bennett's new deals are worth about 22 million per year. Would the Hawks be better off long term without Sherman, Thomas, and Bennett but with Wilson, or better off long term with Sherman, Thomas, and Bennett but without Wilson?

I'm not advocating for one over the other, I'm just saying the answer isn't obvious. The only thing that's likely true in this scenario though is that if you pick the first scenario the Hawks would be putting their money on the bet that they can become a more QB focused team and change the way they've gone about winning. That's not right or wrong, but it's a thing that can't be talked away.