Is Russell Wilson worth 6 years $129m???

[scutterhawk]

I'm going to get killed for it, but I wouldn't pay it. With all of the pieces we have and the defense we have, there are a lot of quarterbacks out there that we can win Super Bowls with.

Oh hell yeah, there are probably about four or five yet undiscovered Quarterbacks out there, that can pull extraordinary plays out of their asses just like RW for cheap money. :roll:

 

[Wizofwest]

I'm going to get killed for it, but I wouldn't pay it. With all of the pieces we have and the defense we have, there are a lot of quarterbacks out there that we can win Super Bowls with.

What you have just said, is the most insanely idiotic thing I have ever heard. At no point, in your rambling incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points and may God have mercy on your soul.
- Billy Madison

 

[Sac]

I'm going to get killed for it, but I wouldn't pay it. With all of the pieces we have and the defense we have, there are a lot of quarterbacks out there that we can win Super Bowls with.

What you have just said, is the most insanely idiotic thing I have ever heard. At no point, in your rambling incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points and may God have mercy on your soul.
- Billy Madison

Technically, it was said TO Billy Madison. But good quote anyway.

 

[scutterhawk]

Not that it helps your case being supported by a 9ers fan ( :lol: -- albeit a 9ers fan who sincerely loves Wilson as a player ), but this has been my read too. This was the year that I was expecting him to start finding the pocket and spending time in his progressions as the plays are designed in it rather than over-relying on an internal clock to bail from the top of it. So far this year I haven't seen any development in that regard.

What pocket? You have to have a pocket to be able to find it. Explain to me how hes suppose to improve as a pocket passer without a pocket holding up for more then 2 seconds.

THIS ! ^^^

 

[Popeyejones]

But honestly ask yourself, do you really think Russell Wilson ISN'T worth as much as Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, even Aaron Rodgers?

Worth as much, or worth as much TO THE HAWKS?

They're different questions, IMO.

FWIW I don't think he's worth (at least yet) as much as Brees or Rodgers, but it's not about how much Wilson is worth to QB centered teams IMO, it's about how much he's worth the Seahawks.

As another example in the other direction, I think Earl Thomas is a GREAT player. Because of scheme I also think he's worth more to the Hawks than he is to most other teams.

Same story with Marshawn Lynch: he's worth more to the Hawks than he'd be worth to the Saints, Packers, Patriots, Broncos, etc. (i.e. there's a reason why these teams piece together their running games and still win, and the Hawks, 9ers, and Chiefs don't).

And seriously, how much do you think other teams would pay Wilson? I GUARANTEE you a handful of teams would jump at a 6-yr/$140-150m backloaded deal with $60-80m guaranteed, structured in a way that creates a cap hit around $20-22m/yr for the first 3-4 years.

I don't disagree with that at all, but it sidesteps the question of what Wilson is worth TO THE HAWKS. It doesn't matter how much he's worth to anybody else. That's a crappy way to manage your cap.

For instance, I think there are MANY things we can criticize Trent Baalke for, but one thing he has been spot on about with 9ers FAs is offering them what they're worth TO THE 9ers regardless of what they're worth to other teams.

Schneider has done the same thing. His offer to Golden Tate was a lowball offer because Golden Tate simply isn't worth nearly as much to the Hawks as he is to the Lions.

Say whatever you want about Wilson, talk about how great this defense is, take away credit however you want, but one thing is still true - Russell Wilson has more wins than any QB in NFL history.

Do you mean a higher winning percentage? Yeah, Kaepernick is #2, right? It doesn't change the fact that both the 9ers and Hawks are built to win with running and defense, and have been able to do so because they have good QBs who were getting paid peanuts.

I'm not taking ANYTHING away from Wilson. I've repeatedly said he's my favorite of the young QBs. I just think you're taking a vey QB-centric view to discuss an atypically non-QB centric team.

Real question: if you're paying Wilson 22 million instead of 500K, over time, do you think his win percentage will go up or down? His winning percentage (and Kaps winning percentage) is about MUCH MORE than just they're talent. It's also about them being very underpaid on their rookie deals, and that money going elsewhere.

Look, I agree that the Hawks very well may have not won the Super Bowl without a QB as talented as Wilson, but after this season that's living in the past. Wilson is the most underpaid player in the NFL, and that's going to change. There's no way around it.

And not just wins. He's wearing a ring that he brought this team in his second season, one of very few QBs to ever do that. His QB rating, completion %, TDs-INTs, YPA, every single stat is off the charts. Like, record-breaking off-the-charts. Then you add what he does with his legs. You let that package hit the market and you are looking at the biggest blockbuster deal in NFL history.

The stats you want to look at, sure. But he was also 16th out of 32 in yards, 19th in completions, and 22nd in attempts without missing any time due to injury. That's NOT because he's not wildly talented (he is!), it's because the Hawks don't rely on their QB as much as many other teams. So it goes.

And just to be VERY clear here: I am NOT arguing that the Hawks shouldn't pay Wilson 20-22 million per. I am simply saying that I think it's a much more interesting question than it was for the Packers, Saints, Falcons, etc. That's it. I thought it was obvious for those teams. I don't think the answer is as obvious for the Hawks. That's it.

 

[dumbrabbit]

I'm in the minority, but I don't think Wilson will take such a high contract and not leave enough room for other players's contracts. He knows he needs the rest of the team to play well and confident. I bet he'll get a 6 or 7 year deal but there's no way he'll take $170M. I'd say he gets around $16M a year which equals to about 7 years, $112M. That's a fair deal and large enough for the Hawks to offer to Wilson.

There is no chance at all that Wilson takes less money than Kaepernick, so you can forget that scenario. It will never happen. There is actually a higher likelihood that the Seahawks will win a Superbowl with an alien from outer space playing at QB.

Most of Kaepernick's contract is not guaranteed. The difference with Wilson's is that his will have more guaranteed money which will make the difference for him IMO.

 

[Popeyejones]

Not that it helps your case being supported by a 9ers fan ( :lol: -- albeit a 9ers fan who sincerely loves Wilson as a player ), but this has been my read too. This was the year that I was expecting him to start finding the pocket and spending time in his progressions as the plays are designed in it rather than over-relying on an internal clock to bail from the top of it. So far this year I haven't seen any development in that regard.

What pocket? You have to have a pocket to be able to find it. Explain to me how hes suppose to improve as a pocket passer without a pocket holding up for more then 2 seconds.

THIS ! ^^^

Figured this would come up. :lol:

I'm talking about what Wilson does when he has a pocket to step into, not what he does when he's getting pressure up the middle. When you're getting pressure up the middle the smart play IS to hit a hot read (what Tical is talking about) OR to bail on the pocket and get creative, which Wilson is MUCH better at than anybody. Tical is saying he needs to get better at the former (FWIW I agree), and I'm talking about when he's not getting pressure up the middle, which, you know, is what usually happens despite the fact that the Hawks aren't great in pass pro.

 

[Popeyejones]

I'm in the minority, but I don't think Wilson will take such a high contract and not leave enough room for other players's contracts. He knows he needs the rest of the team to play well and confident. I bet he'll get a 6 or 7 year deal but there's no way he'll take $170M. I'd say he gets around $16M a year which equals to about 7 years, $112M. That's a fair deal and large enough for the Hawks to offer to Wilson.

There is no chance at all that Wilson takes less money than Kaepernick, so you can forget that scenario. It will never happen. There is actually a higher likelihood that the Seahawks will win a Superbowl with an alien from outer space playing at QB.

Most of Kaepernick's contract is not guaranteed. The difference with Wilson's is that his will have more guaranteed money which will make the difference for him IMO.

Not only more money guaranteed, but more money overall. Kap is getting 14.5 million per season which goes down by from the base amount by two million each year until he goes to the pro-bowl or the 9ers make the Super Bowl. With that he only has 13 million guaranteed.

The lack of guaranteed money was really, really surprising, but the lack of money in general (including the de-escalators) was pretty surprising too, IMO.

 

[HansGruber]

But honestly ask yourself, do you really think Russell Wilson ISN'T worth as much as Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, even Aaron Rodgers?

Worth as much, or worth as much TO THE HAWKS?

They're different questions, IMO.

FWIW I don't think he's worth (at least yet) as much as Brees or Rodgers, but it's not about how much Wilson is worth to QB centered teams IMO, it's about how much he's worth the Seahawks.

As another example in the other direction, I think Earl Thomas is a GREAT player. Because of scheme I also think he's worth more to the Hawks than he is to most other teams.

Same story with Marshawn Lynch: he's worth more to the Hawks than he'd be worth to the Saints, Packers, Patriots, Broncos, etc. (i.e. there's a reason why these teams piece together their running games and still win, and the Hawks, 9ers, and Chiefs don't).

And seriously, how much do you think other teams would pay Wilson? I GUARANTEE you a handful of teams would jump at a 6-yr/$140-150m backloaded deal with $60-80m guaranteed, structured in a way that creates a cap hit around $20-22m/yr for the first 3-4 years.

I don't disagree with that at all, but it sidesteps the question of what Wilson is worth TO THE HAWKS. It doesn't matter how much he's worth to anybody else. That's a crappy way to manage your cap.

For instance, I think there are MANY things we can criticize Trent Baalke for, but one thing he has been spot on about with 9ers FAs is offering them what they're worth TO THE 9ers regardless of what they're worth to other teams.

Schneider has done the same thing. His offer to Golden Tate was a lowball offer because Golden Tate simply isn't worth nearly as much to the Hawks as he is to the Lions.

Say whatever you want about Wilson, talk about how great this defense is, take away credit however you want, but one thing is still true - Russell Wilson has more wins than any QB in NFL history.

Do you mean a higher winning percentage? Yeah, Kaepernick is #2, right? It doesn't change the fact that both the 9ers and Hawks are built to win with running and defense, and have been able to do so because they have good QBs who were getting paid peanuts.

I'm not taking ANYTHING away from Wilson. I've repeatedly said he's my favorite of the young QBs. I just think you're taking a vey QB-centric view to discuss an atypically non-QB centric team.

Real question: if you're paying Wilson 22 million instead of 500K, over time, do you think his win percentage will go up or down? His winning percentage (and Kaps winning percentage) is about MUCH MORE than just they're talent. It's also about them being very underpaid on their rookie deals, and that money going elsewhere.

Look, I agree that the Hawks very well may have not won the Super Bowl without a QB as talented as Wilson, but after this season that's living in the past. Wilson is the most underpaid player in the NFL, and that's going to change. There's no way around it.

And not just wins. He's wearing a ring that he brought this team in his second season, one of very few QBs to ever do that. His QB rating, completion %, TDs-INTs, YPA, every single stat is off the charts. Like, record-breaking off-the-charts. Then you add what he does with his legs. You let that package hit the market and you are looking at the biggest blockbuster deal in NFL history.

The stats you want to look at, sure. But he was also 16th out of 32 in yards, 19th in completions, and 22nd in attempts without missing any time due to injury. That's NOT because he's not wildly talented (he is!), it's because the Hawks don't rely on their QB as much as many other teams. So it goes.

I can answer your question directly:

He's worth MORE to other teams than the Seahawks.

You don't think the Raiders and Bills front offices would be falling all over themselves to get at Wilson? Those GMs, presidents and coaches are about to lose their NFL careers. Those franchises are sitting there with new owners who want to win NOW, who HAVE to win now, or at least spark some kind of fan interest. They've been sucking for years and haven't been close to competing because they can't find quarterbacks. This after spending countless first round picks on QBs.

The Bills and Raiders both would pay whatever the hell it took to get Wilson to sign with them. They wouldn't give two hoots or a nickel what it cost. They'd cut their entire starting defenses, and half the offense as well.

Russell Wilson in a Bills or Raiders jersey would be worth about $100m/yr in jersey and ticket sales to those franchises alone. Sure, they might not win a Superbowl, but they'd sell out their season tickets 5 minutes after the deal was announced and jersey sales would go BEZERK. Fans would go crazy. Can you imagine a Buffallo Bills jersey being #1 in sales? Well, guess what, that is immediately what would happen and it wouldn't be close (look it up). They'd instantly be front-page news on every major media outlet, sports or otherwise. Anchormen on BBC would be speaking in weird British accents about the brilliance of Mark Davis to sign Russell Wilson, regardless of the size of the deal. That signing would rocket that franchise to the top of the NFL heap in fan interest for MONTHS, probably years.

If you made that deal happen in Oakland or Buffalo (or even with the Jets), you wouldn't have to win a Superbowl to keep your job. You wouldn't even have to make the playoffs. Your fans would just believe you were a contender and they'd be going crazy. You'd win the GM of the Year award and it wouldn't be close. Your GM, your coach, your entire front office would be championed 24 hours a day for the next year as the most brilliant men in football.

Don't buy it? Look at Elway. He won all those awards for what? Signing Peyton, who most people thought was handicapped and would never be the same, to one of the largest QB deals in the NFL. That dude will be untouchable in Denver for a long time, simply because he was able to sign the #1 QB prospect to a deal.

You don't think Wilson would be the #1 QB deal if he hit the market? You can't possibly be that naive. Russell Wilson hitting the open market would be top-line news, front page material, for as long as he was available. He'd be the hottest free agent since... well, I can't even think of an equivalent. Look at all the press that Manning and Montana got and those guys were thought to be done. A young, Superbowl-winning franchise QB? That would be crazy-town.

If you can't see that, then you're just not being honest with yourself.

 

[McGruff]

Yeah, that's part of the equation too. It doesn't change that Wilson's 22 million is going to have to come from somewhere. The Hawks can do that however they want, though. Think of it this way: Sherman, Thomas, and Bennett's new deals are worth about 22 million per year. Would the Hawks be better off long term without Sherman, Thomas, and Bennett but with Wilson, or better off long term with Sherman, Thomas, and Bennett but without Wilson?

Or, half of Wilson's 20,000,000 can come from simply cutting Russell Okung. Another 3-4 million by restructuring Brandon Mebane.

Its complicated if you only count star players, but becomes simpler if you starting looking at overpaid and/or aging players making too much on the back end of contracts.

 

[Reaneypark]

Anyone who thinks Russell Wilson won't sign the largest contract in the history of the NFL is fooling themselves. Remember, the guy is going to be making up for lost time because his rookie contract is so low. He's gonna get paid and get paid well. I have no problems with this. He deserves every penny.

 

[Popeyejones]

Hans --

You're misreading me. :lol:

Sorry if I'm partially responsible for that.

I absolutely agree with you that plenty of teams would be falling all over themselves to open the vault for Wilson. Absolutely, absolutely, absolutely. It's why since my first post I've differentiated between what Wilson is "worth" (where I said he IS worth that deal for sure) and what he's worth TO THE HAWKS (which I said is an interesting question).

 

[Sarlacc83]

Before the 2012 season, Manning's 5 year 96 million dollar deal was massive. Now it seems like a bargain. And it hasn't hurt the Broncos spending ability at all.

In the same way, a 24 million a year deal for Wilson will seem a lot less enormous then than it does now. In 2015, TNF will be renegotiated and Wilson's cap hit will get covered by the second cap raise. So money isn't a huge issue here. (Which is why Tical should be shamed for suggesting Seattle goes with an unproven starter.)

As for Wilson's worth to the team, Schneider wanted to use a first on him for a reason, and I doubt much has changed. Seattle pays market value or close to it - Tate wasn't lowballed, though he was not highly valued, either. Wilson' s ability to run and pass opens the field for Marshawn just as much as vice versa. Two way street. Similarly, Wilson is a type 5 QB in terms of efficiency, and you do not let those walk off a team which so highly values that attribute.

If Seattle wants to really save money and upgrade the team, it starts with replacing Unger and Okung through the draft.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Most top QB prospects that have spent their first two years behind such a bad pass pro O-line have had their careers ruined, never to amount to anything above mediocrity.

Think about it for a minute.

 

[Cartire]

If Seattle wants to really save money and upgrade the team, it starts at upgrading Unger and Okung through the draft.

The problem with this line is, we just assume its an upgrade. Lineman are hit or miss constantly. No matter how good they look, no one, 1st round-7th round is a sure thing. And the amount of quality is suspect anyway. And who can really blame them. They play the most (besides the QB). They weigh the most. They are put through the most grueling pain and physical assertion. And yet we are surprised when they are injured all the time and begin to slow down from all of this.

We were absolutely spoiled with Big Walt. And I mean horribly spoiled. He is the anomaly in a position group that has no guarantees. Every teams lines suffer injuries every year. I would actually like to look at the stats and see if, whenever, a team has had the same start 5 lineman for a 16 game stretch.

Now with that being said, we definitely need to keep drafting OL every year (like we have been doing). And probably this year need to trade up to grab a better prospect.

 

[Ozzy]

Great post by Roland. I've brought this up before to people because it never gets factored in. Wilson has ran for his life the past 2 years and still has a QB rating over 100 and a Super Bowl win. I won't fault Wilson at all for getting what he has earned regardless of what the number ends up being. Wouldn't shock me if he takes less but I wouldn't think any less of him if he doesn't.

 

[Sarlacc83]

If Seattle wants to really save money and upgrade the team, it starts at upgrading Unger and Okung through the draft.

The problem with this line is, we just assume its an upgrade. Lineman are hit or miss constantly. No matter how good they look, no one, 1st round-7th round is a sure thing. And the amount of quality is suspect anyway. And who can really blame them. They play the most (besides the QB). They weigh the most. They are put through the most grueling pain and physical assertion. And yet we are surprised when they are injured all the time and begin to slow down from all of this.

We were absolutely spoiled with Big Walt. And I mean horribly spoiled. He is the anomaly in a position group that has no guarantees. Every teams lines suffer injuries every year. I would actually like to look at the stats and see if, whenever, a team has had the same start 5 lineman for a 16 game stretch.

Now with that being said, we definitely need to keep drafting OL every year (like we have been doing). And probably this year need to trade up to grab a better prospect.

I agree with everything you just said. However, I think we're far more likely to find upgrades for cheaper at those positions than playing the QB roulette game.

And I have been consistently on the side of Okung and Unger to date, but if we're making hard decisions, then we have to figure out what we can live with. So I don't say it lightly.

 

[rjdriver]

There is no doubt you pay him whatever it takes.

There is also no doubt that RW has to be the (arguably) most marketable player in the NFL right now. Coupling the recent perception problems and with the old guard starting to age, the NFL is desperate for ambassadors to lead them into the future and get them out of the present. RW has the charisma, energy, drive, and passion that the NFL and marketers kill for. He's a black guy that "white people love", Christian, charitable, articulate, the whole nine yards. His NFL salary is the icing on the cake, especially if he can continue to win.

I think that could be our biggest bargaining tool. He knows that being a winner only opens more and more windows of sponsorship opportunity. Financially, RW could actually benefit from taking less money to keep a very competitive product in tact. What he forgoes in salary, he could more than make up for in ancillary endeavors. Winning is an important factor in this, and RW is smart enough to know this, I hope this allows us to sign him for a more reasonable, yet competitive, contract. There is a reason Dan Marino could only get "isotoner" gloves. If Russell plays it right, we will be get sick of seeing him as much or more as I am of seeing PM on every commercial.

 

[Popeyejones]

Yeah, that's part of the equation too. It doesn't change that Wilson's 22 million is going to have to come from somewhere. The Hawks can do that however they want, though. Think of it this way: Sherman, Thomas, and Bennett's new deals are worth about 22 million per year. Would the Hawks be better off long term without Sherman, Thomas, and Bennett but with Wilson, or better off long term with Sherman, Thomas, and Bennett but without Wilson?

Or, half of Wilson's 20,000,000 can come from simply cutting Russell Okung. Another 3-4 million by restructuring Brandon Mebane.

Its complicated if you only count star players, but becomes simpler if you starting looking at overpaid and/or aging players making too much on the back end of contracts.

Okung counts 7 million against the cap next year, not 10. So if you split the difference of 20-22 million you're talking a third of the way there by cutting Okung, not halfway.

As for the actual substance of the argument you're making though (which is totally legitimate), yeah, of course, but two things on this point:

1) Getting rid of your overpaid veterans is a one-time shot, it's not a gift that keeps on giving. Before even paying Wilson and before Thomas and Sherman's money has even really kicked in they've ALREADY purged their inflated contracts (Sidney Rice, Red Bryant, restructuring Zach Miller) except for Okung. After Okung, who's left?

Using the 9ers as an example, they're a year ahead of the Hawks in terms of cap hell, they're yet to purge all of their overpaid veterans (Carlos Rogers has been, Adam Snyder has been, Jonathan Goodwin has been, Ahmad Brooks and Ray McDonald are still to come), and they'll be LUCKY if through this thing they ONLY those vets, five pro-bowlers (Iupati, Gore, Justin Smith, Whitner, and Goldson) and a ton of talented Golden Tate type role players (Michael Crabtree, Alex Boone, Delanie Walker, Terrel Brown).

In the grand scheme of things saying "what about Okung?" is the equivalent of saying "what about Carlos Rogers?" It kind of misses the point.

2) You can't just take Okung off the books and reduce your left tackle costs down to zero. In the next few years the Hawks are going to need to restock at a TON of positions. You do that with Rookies and flyers on bottom of the barrell, end of FA veterans, but the team has to change. SOMEONE is going to be playing Left Tackle, and you've either got to nail a pick or nail a FA vet that others don't value for that to work out.

 

[kearly]

I'm going to get killed for it, but I wouldn't pay it. With all of the pieces we have and the defense we have, there are a lot of quarterbacks out there that we can win Super Bowls with.

Tical isn't wrong. In theory there are a lot of QBs who could contend with Seattle's supporting cast.

However, the problem is getting that QB.

Seattle's pass protection issues would require obtaining a QB who is a master of beating the blitz. Pete also strongly prefers a QB who can run the read option effectively. So that's going to cut down on the list of QBs that make sense for Seattle.

It is still fairly difficult to obtain a franchise QB. Who are we getting? Because guys like Chad Henne, Matt Schaub, Kyle Orton, and Ryan Fitzpatrick probably aren't going to get it done. Maybe we could get Tom Brady in a trade (I'd bet Belichick would do it if you offered enough), but it wouldn't be cheap and he'd be a short term solution. And he can't be a read option QB.

If you draft a QB, then you are rolling the dice. Odds are pretty low that you'll find another Russell Wilson. More likely, you'll land a QB in the efficiency range of Ryan Tannehill and Cam Newton. I would consider ourselves fairly lucky if we got someone like Austin Davis or Kirk Cousins, who are not great QBs. Not yet anyway.

When you look at the plausible alternatives to Wilson, and how they might fare behind our pass protection, you're probably punting at least 3 wins to save $15-20 million a year. It would be very hard to make up those wins with that amount of savings.

And that's not even getting into the equity Wilson has earned with the fanbase and community, or how he's been the ultimate ambassador for the Seahawks and even the NFL. He has the #1 selling jersey in the NFL, and though it doesn't help Seattle's cap number, it does help Paul Allen make money.

One last thing, the NFL's cap number is rising at a historic rate. The difference between the 2013 cap number and the 2015 cap number by itself will pay for Wilson's new salary. Sure, that means other teams will have more money to spend than the Seahawks, but if anyone thinks the Seahawks have only been good because Wilson's been saving them $20 million every season, they haven't been paying attention.