Is Russell Wilson worth 6 years $129m???

[bigtrain21]

In my scenario, I'm fairly confident that Pete and JS could find a replacement better than Flynn or TJack. He probably won't be as good as Wilson, but I think with a pretty good QB and 20 extra million to improve other positions, we can win multiple Super Bowls.
I know full well that we will be just like everybody else and pay our QB about as much as he wants, I just wouldn't do it personally. Paying any player that much is dangerous, and you had better be 100% sure he is the right guy. Now the part I will really get killed for....I'm not 100% that Russell is THAT guy.

I consider you one of the smarter posters on this board, so I would be interested to hear why you aren't convinced.

He's blind.

 

[AgentDib]

Remember that the agent's job is to keep this from being a no-brainer decision. If the team doesn't think "well that's expensive but I guess it's worth it" then the agent didn't get as much for the client as they could have. We can hope that our leverage of the 2015 season coupled with long-term guarantees can depress the numbers a bit but it's naive to be 100% committed to paying an unseen price a year ahead of time.

If you give a guy a 150 million dollar contract and you don't cut them or restructure, the cap hit is going to be 150 million in the end when you add it up. Now you can throw in contract escalators and stuff, but I think even those if activated end up counting some how.

Right, the system is designed not to be beaten because the owners legally collude to lower prices. If you gave a $1 mil incentive to win the super bowl to all 53 players and then your team won the super bowl, you would get dinged the next year for an extra $53 million on the cap.

 

[Popeyejones]

In my scenario, I'm fairly confident that Pete and JS could find a replacement better than Flynn or TJack. He probably won't be as good as Wilson, but I think with a pretty good QB and 20 extra million to improve other positions, we can win multiple Super Bowls.
I know full well that we will be just like everybody else and pay our QB about as much as he wants, I just wouldn't do it personally. Paying any player that much is dangerous, and you had better be 100% sure he is the right guy. Now the part I will really get killed for....I'm not 100% that Russell is THAT guy.

Oh, interesting. This might be the only place where you and I differ. I still have question about Wilson, but I think he's more or as likely to be *that guy* as any other young qb in the league.

Where I think we agree is that with the way the Hawks are built and the way they win, I don't think having *that guy* at QB is NEARLY as necessary as it is for other teams.

Basically I think teams like the Hawks and 9ers are successful because they've built themselves to play moneyball (win with the NFL equivalent of on base percentage (running game) and fielding (defense) instead of fetishizing home runs and batting average (QB play)) which is why it's curious that they both seem to not be playing moneyball when it really comes down to it.

 

[dumbrabbit]

I'm in the minority, but I don't think Wilson will take such a high contract and not leave enough room for other players's contracts. He knows he needs the rest of the team to play well and confident. I bet he'll get a 6 or 7 year deal but there's no way he'll take $170M. I'd say he gets around $16M a year which equals to about 7 years, $112M. That's a fair deal and large enough for the Hawks to offer to Wilson.

 

[Tical21]

In my scenario, I'm fairly confident that Pete and JS could find a replacement better than Flynn or TJack. He probably won't be as good as Wilson, but I think with a pretty good QB and 20 extra million to improve other positions, we can win multiple Super Bowls.
I know full well that we will be just like everybody else and pay our QB about as much as he wants, I just wouldn't do it personally. Paying any player that much is dangerous, and you had better be 100% sure he is the right guy. Now the part I will really get killed for....I'm not 100% that Russell is THAT guy.

I consider you one of the smarter posters on this board, so I would be interested to hear why you aren't convinced.

Well there was your first mistake, but thanks for the compliment. The crux of it is that I never see Wilson as a guy that is going to be able to carve up a defense and make it look easy. I don't think he diagnoses what he is seeing quickly enough or attacks the middle of the defense well enough. He holds onto the ball too long against the blitz rather than finding his hot routes. These things are fine for a young QB, but I just don't see him improving greatly in these areas. He has to work so hard for everything, which is great, but is it sustainable? It would be nice to see him learn how to make things easier on himself.

He will most likely prove me wrong and become great in these areas and make the game look easy. That is kind of the way that he works. I think he is very good, don't get me wrong, I just think there are maybe 2-3 QB's worth that much money and am not fully convinced he is one of them.

 

[chris98251]

Let me guess the names, Manning, Brady and Luck! Or swap Manning for Rodgers

 

[edogg23]

There is a senerio where taking less money makes him more money in the end. Say he takes less money to allow the Seahawks to be a better team and he wins additional super bowls because of it. All that endorsement money that comes as being the qb on the best team in the league can make him more money than demanding a big contract that keeps the Hawks from being contenders in the future.

 

[SeaChase]

Matt Flynn money until he proves himself...

 

[Popeyejones]

No. Early estimates is that the cap will be increasing by $20m next season.

?????

Link?

The NFL is still poaching from the pension fund (with NFLPA approval) to keep the cap from having deflated these past two years. That money still needs to get paid back from the players cut.

The new Sunday Ticket deal with DirectTV alone just brought in additional new revenues of approx $500m/yr. Divided by 32 teams and halved toward the cap and you're looking at about $8m/yr per team. New advertising revenue has not yet been released, but I've read reports that SB48 generated over $400m in new revenue as well. There will be other forms of revenue.

It's closer to 6.5 because the players get 47% and the pension fund comes out of their share.

The major issue here is that when the NFLPA (quite idiotically) agreed to drop from a 60% to 47% share they agreed to go into debt to keep the salary cap from going down by about 8 million per year.

This Direct TV deal (iirc it doesn't come into effect until the 2016 season, but I could be wrong) will get the salary cap closer to where it naturally should be rather than running a deficit on the players' share.

The other issue is that TV revenue is now locked in for all outlets through the early 2020s. There will likely be additional revenue streams, but those are peanuts compared to TV revenue.

Basically, IMO it's going to take even funnier math than the NFL has already been using to keep the salary cap from dropping for it to be rising by that much, let alone in one year.

Would love to see the details of the 20 million link though, b/c maybe I've got this all wrong?

 

[HansGruber]

Is Russell Wilson worth more than Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jay Cutler? How much more? Those guys are all making over $20m/yr..

Well, you're just picking the guys making over 20 million that NOBODY thinks is worth over 20. It's putting your finger on the scale, a little bit. :lol:

A more straightforward way to do it would be to establish a list of the QBs who people think ARE worth over 20 million per year and ask if Wilson is worth as much to the Hawks as those guys are to their teams.

I actually left out the really terrible ones. Sam Bradford is on that list, you know.

The best ones I left out are Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Drew Brees. Aaron's new contract has a salary of $22m/yr but the cap hit was much lower when I checked, not sure the exact number. The same is true for Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. But honestly ask yourself, do you really think Russell Wilson ISN'T worth as much as Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, even Aaron Rodgers? Every single GM in the NFL would say yes to that without blinking. Even if you argue that Aaron Rodgers is critical to GB's success and won that ring for them, don't you think the same is at least equally as true for Russell Wilson? Wilson has absolutely dominated Aaron Rodgers in both fantasy stats and regular season performance this season and I know that because I've got them both on my fantasy team. It hasn't been close.

And seriously, how much do you think other teams would pay Wilson? I GUARANTEE you a handful of teams would jump at a 6-yr/$140-150m backloaded deal with $60-80m guaranteed, structured in a way that creates a cap hit around $20-22m/yr for the first 3-4 years. John Clayton brought it up on air, and mentioned that the Jets, Bills, Cardinals, Texans, and Raiders would all JUMP at that chance. They wouldn't hesitate. $25m/yr is the market, $23m/yr is a lowball number, and $27m/yr would be his open market value in a bidding war. That's from Clayton who predicted Golden Tate's contract down to the exact bonus.

As Clayton said in the offseason, there's no way Seattle even lets it get that far. They won't even let Wilson's agent "legally" shop his client. NO WAY. Wilson's deal would blow the lid off the current QB class if you let the QB-needy teams start bidding for him. Say whatever you want about Wilson, talk about how great this defense is, take away credit however you want, but one thing is still true - Russell Wilson has more wins than any QB in NFL history.

And not just wins. He's wearing a ring that he brought this team in his second season, one of very few QBs to ever do that. His QB rating, completion %, TDs-INTs, YPA, every single stat is off the charts. Like, record-breaking off-the-charts. Then you add what he does with his legs. You let that package hit the market and you are looking at the biggest blockbuster deal in NFL history.

Clayton was emphasizing all those things in the interview I heard with him, and laughing at Seattleites who think Russell is going to give us some kind of "hometown discount." A hometown discount is Aaron Rodgers / Peyton Manning money, because he's younger, healthier, and better than those guys right now. He's won more games, and he has just as many rings. Russell Wilson is going to be the foundation of a dynasty, wherever he goes. And every GM in the NFL knows that.

Fans like to sit around and debate fantasy stats, but NFL GMs go crazy for QBs with wins and Superbowl rings. Heck, they go crazy for guys who've just won a playoff game or two. How else do you think Flacco, Ryan, and Romo got their deals? And those guys are in the $20-22m/yr range. Wilson's agent sees that, and he knows he has to get Wilson AT LEAST that much. It would be ludicrous and insulting for Wilson to accept a deal with Kaepernick or Romo numbers. Other agents would be beating down Wilson's door. The media would be mocking his agent and the deal. It's just not going to happen.

Write it down - Russell Wilson will be MUCH closer to 25m/yr than 20m/yr.

 

[Happypuppy]

Everyone is too low. If he's got a good agent, it'll be 6 yrs, $150m, $80m guaranteed

I think your close. I am figuring at 24m / yr. average with a big bonus.

 

[HansGruber]

Is Russell Wilson worth more than Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jay Cutler? How much more? Those guys are all making over $20m/yr.

Then again, their cap hits are all mostly under $20m/yr. Cap hit is what is important.

The Seahawks will find a way to get Wilson paid, without taking a huge cap hit. His "real" pay will be around $25m/yr, but his cap hit will likely be right around $20-21m/yr.

What? You can backload a contract and cut the player before they get to that part of the contract, but that doesn't sound like something you would do to your franchise QB. If the cap hit is lower one year, its going to have to be higher another year. It's not magic. If you give a guy a 150 million dollar contract and you don't cut them or restructure, the cap hit is going to be 150 million in the end when you add it up. Now you can throw in contract escalators and stuff, but I think even those if activated end up counting some how.

New England has done it with Tom Brady for his entire career. He's always restructuring his deal, pushing more money into the backend, and signing extensions that push it out further.

My point is that Russell has to AT LEAST get Manning/Rodgers money in print. Maybe not in the cap hit, and that is where John Schneider will truly prove his value. But he's going to be the #1 paid QB in average dollars per year on the deal and you can bank on that.

 

[Cartire]

No. Early estimates is that the cap will be increasing by $20m next season.

?????

Link?

The NFL is still poaching from the pension fund (with NFLPA approval) to keep the cap from having deflated these past two years. That money still needs to get paid back from the players cut.

The new Sunday Ticket deal with DirectTV alone just brought in additional new revenues of approx $500m/yr. Divided by 32 teams and halved toward the cap and you're looking at about $8m/yr per team. New advertising revenue has not yet been released, but I've read reports that SB48 generated over $400m in new revenue as well. There will be other forms of revenue.

It's closer to 6.5 because the players get 47% and the pension fund comes out of their share.

The major issue here is that when the NFLPA (quite idiotically) agreed to drop from a 60% to 47% share they agreed to go into debt to keep the salary cap from going down by about 8 million per year.

This Direct TV deal (iirc it doesn't come into effect until the 2016 season, but I could be wrong) will get the salary cap closer to where it naturally should be rather than running a deficit on the players' share.

The other issue is that TV revenue is now locked in for all outlets through the early 2020s. There will likely be additional revenue streams, but those are peanuts compared to TV revenue.

Basically, IMO it's going to take even funnier math than the NFL has already been using to keep the salary cap from dropping for it to be rising by that much, let alone in one year.

Would love to see the details of the 20 million link though, b/c maybe I've got this all wrong?

Ive heard nothing about $20 million. And the effects of the new direct TV money will not happen next year. The money isnt going to keep climbing non-stop. I wont be surprised if its another $10 million this year, but after that its going to level out.

 

[Popeyejones]

I don't think he diagnoses what he is seeing quickly enough or attacks the middle of the defense well enough. He holds onto the ball too long against the blitz rather than finding his hot routes. These things are fine for a young QB, but I just don't see him improving greatly in these areas. He has to work so hard for everything, which is great, but is it sustainable? It would be nice to see him learn how to make things easier on himself.

Not that it helps your case being supported by a 9ers fan ( :lol: -- albeit a 9ers fan who sincerely loves Wilson as a player ), but this has been my read too. This was the year that I was expecting him to start finding the pocket and spending time in his progressions as the plays are designed in it rather than over-relying on an internal clock to bail from the top of it. So far this year I haven't seen any development in that regard.

People here will no doubt take this with a grain of salt given the messenger, but I've actually been pretty surprised this year that despite 1) Wilson being the MUCH more naturally gifted QB and 2) stil the better QB, that Kaepernick so far seems to have improved on his trouble spots more than Wilson, even if the stats don't show it totally clearly. Kaps footwork has improved, he's getting through his progressions much quicker, stepping into the pocket more to do so, and also has developed some touch on intermediate and long throws.* Wilson is still better, but he's also -- so far -- still the same guy he has been.


*It's not all rosy. He's still a mess on short throws, doesn't really have a natural feel for the game, and over-relies on his pre-snap reads which allows defenses to jump his routes and abuse him when they trick him with disguised coverage (the last one being the only area I really expect him to maybe improve in.)

 

[RolandDeschain]

I'm going to get killed for it, but I wouldn't pay it. With all of the pieces we have and the defense we have, there are a lot of quarterbacks out there that we can win Super Bowls with.

Yes, as evidenced by the four Super Bowls in a row that the Ravens won with Trent Dilfer.

Wait, what?

:roll:

 

[HansGruber]

I'm in the minority, but I don't think Wilson will take such a high contract and not leave enough room for other players's contracts. He knows he needs the rest of the team to play well and confident. I bet he'll get a 6 or 7 year deal but there's no way he'll take $170M. I'd say he gets around $16M a year which equals to about 7 years, $112M. That's a fair deal and large enough for the Hawks to offer to Wilson.

There is no chance at all that Wilson takes less money than Kaepernick, so you can forget that scenario. It will never happen. There is actually a higher likelihood that the Seahawks will win a Superbowl with an alien from outer space playing at QB.

 

[HansGruber]

I don't think he diagnoses what he is seeing quickly enough or attacks the middle of the defense well enough. He holds onto the ball too long against the blitz rather than finding his hot routes. These things are fine for a young QB, but I just don't see him improving greatly in these areas. He has to work so hard for everything, which is great, but is it sustainable? It would be nice to see him learn how to make things easier on himself.

Not that it helps your case being supported by a 9ers fan ( :lol: -- albeit a 9ers fan who sincerely loves Wilson as a player ), but this has been my read too. This was the year that I was expecting him to start finding the pocket and spending time in his progressions as the plays are designed in it rather than over-relying on an internal clock to bail from the top of it. So far this year I haven't seen any development in that regard.

People here will no doubt take this with a grain of salt given the messenger, but I've actually been pretty surprised this year that despite 1) Wilson being the MUCH more naturally gifted QB and 2) stil the better QB, that Kaepernick so far seems to have improved on his trouble spots more than Wilson, even if the stats don't show it totally clearly. Kaps footwork has improved, he's getting through his progressions much quicker, stepping into the pocket more to do so, and also has developed some touch on intermediate and long throws.* Wilson is still better, but he's also -- so far -- still the same guy he has been.


*It's not all rosy. He's still a mess on short throws, doesn't really have a natural feel for the game, and over-relies on his pre-snap reads which allows defenses to jump his routes and abuse him when they trick him with disguised coverage (the last one being the only area I really expect him to maybe improve in.)

This post proves that:

A) You have watched 0 Seahawks games this season
B) You don't really understand what you're watching
C) You're blinded by 49er fan homerism
D) All of the Above

My money is on D.

Your statements were so ludicrious they almost make Tical's posts seem intelligent.

 

[Cartire]

Not that it helps your case being supported by a 9ers fan ( :lol: -- albeit a 9ers fan who sincerely loves Wilson as a player ), but this has been my read too. This was the year that I was expecting him to start finding the pocket and spending time in his progressions as the plays are designed in it rather than over-relying on an internal clock to bail from the top of it. So far this year I haven't seen any development in that regard.

What pocket? You have to have a pocket to be able to find it. Explain to me how hes suppose to improve as a pocket passer without a pocket holding up for more then 2 seconds.

 

[HansGruber]

No. Early estimates is that the cap will be increasing by $20m next season.

?????

Link?

The NFL is still poaching from the pension fund (with NFLPA approval) to keep the cap from having deflated these past two years. That money still needs to get paid back from the players cut.

The new Sunday Ticket deal with DirectTV alone just brought in additional new revenues of approx $500m/yr. Divided by 32 teams and halved toward the cap and you're looking at about $8m/yr per team. New advertising revenue has not yet been released, but I've read reports that SB48 generated over $400m in new revenue as well. There will be other forms of revenue.

It's closer to 6.5 because the players get 47% and the pension fund comes out of their share.

The major issue here is that when the NFLPA (quite idiotically) agreed to drop from a 60% to 47% share they agreed to go into debt to keep the salary cap from going down by about 8 million per year.

This Direct TV deal (iirc it doesn't come into effect until the 2016 season, but I could be wrong) will get the salary cap closer to where it naturally should be rather than running a deficit on the players' share.

The other issue is that TV revenue is now locked in for all outlets through the early 2020s. There will likely be additional revenue streams, but those are peanuts compared to TV revenue.

Basically, IMO it's going to take even funnier math than the NFL has already been using to keep the salary cap from dropping for it to be rising by that much, let alone in one year.

Would love to see the details of the 20 million link though, b/c maybe I've got this all wrong?

20 million is too high, but I've read numerous articles stating it will be 10-15m/yr each year for the next 3 due to numerous new revenue sources, renegotiation of the Madden license, DirectTV, new ad and broadcast deals (I believe Fox just paid an additional $500m/yr for their rights), etc. I've seen those numbers all over the place - PFT, ESPN, NFL, John Clayton, etc. The NFL is cleaning up right now and being hyper-aggressive with new revenue.

 

[hawk45]

Premise that it's easy to find a QB who can play at 90% of Wilson and thus be good enough to win with this defense and run game is faulty. Teams that try for this will end up with Andy Dalton keeping them in neutral for a decade. He's just good enough that upgrading isn't a sure thing, but not good enough to get a ring. And then they end up way overpaying anyways precisely because finding a QB is so difficult.

Wilson at 22/23 is still the best option by far. Wilson at 26 is still the best option. Sure he's a better option at 18-20, but so what.

Without Wilson you can immediately kiss winning road games goodbye. As historically great as our D was last year, Wilson staying alive and making a key play in the clutch was the difference. Don't believe it? Ask fans who watch Schaub, Romo, Dalton, Stafford, on and on and on so many QBs who can play pretty dang well most of the time but seem to make that critical mistake.

Lastly, we know Pete can scheme so that the defensive dropoff isn't precipitous even if we lose some depth out there. And he can restock with lower draft picks on that side of the ball. That hasn't been proven AT ALL on the offensive side with the exception of the huge hit on Wilson.