Hawkstorian":271lrmhv said:
Attyla the Hawk You're not helping.
Well, I'm more interested in seeing how the cap progresses. I don't really bother myself with the 'is he worth elite money' conversation. Which I agree is inane. There are teams already out there right now with today's cap that would pay that money on the open market for Wilson.
As for that estimate. We already know that just from the CBS rights to broadcast some Thursday night games, that contract will increase from 275m to 300m just this year. I don't know the details for the other contracts. And there will be the new deal for the DirectTV contract which will also boost the increase in the 2016 cap following it's first year in 2015. That boost jumps up from 1.0b per year to 1.5b per year in 2015. That's just the one contract. That increase alone will result in a 7% per team revenue increase based on the 2014 revenue. The cap now at 143m should expect to be around 170+m next year on the basis of the increase in 2014. And at minimum 190m the year after that. Not accounting for any other growth in contract terms or local revenues.
The growth of these media contracts is increasing in the neighborhood of 10% as a floor, with bumps upwards of 15-25% occasionally. But the 20% increase in local money is going to drive the cap up on top of that. And is the more compelling element IMO. That's just people consuming the product more. Even though players only share about 40-45% depending on the revenue streams -- that's a significant boost as well.
I'm only interested in the conversation, insofar as what we presume is top dollar today will be pittance tomorrow. And in truth based on yesterday's split -- even the more generic 'cap will inflate next year' expectations are way lower than what the expected growth actually was. Because it puts the conversation in tomorrow's dollars, not today's and offers better perspective. When Wilson wants to be a 25m a year QB, really by 2016's standard that should be a downright bargain.
In truth, I think Seattle is fantastically set up for the expected cap situation in the next 4 years. We have a glut of really fantastic alpha players. Difference makers. All signed for multiple years in or approaching their primes with contracts based on what should have been a very low market share. The only ones we don't have are Wilson and Wagner. But with space to squeeze them in. We've achieved the equivalent of buying low on 7 or eight players at or near the top of their positions where the tide of future ballooning of cap space will relatively make their contracts well below market value by the time they are barely half expired.
And given the lack of real difference making QBs going on the market for the next couple of years -- it's actually a pretty solid move for Seattle to simply tag Wilson. Wilson's tag value should be very modest. The calculation is the average of the top 5 salaries
going back 5 years. That's the key. Wilson's cap hit due to tag is going to be based on cap allotment when the cap was in the 110m to 140m range. But the actual cap in '17 and '18 should somewhat conservatively be in the 190 to 220m range. And I could easily see a scenario where tagging him in 2016, 2017 ('16*!20%) and 2018 (17*144%) as being actually valuable from the team perspective.
Looking at the NFL revenues and how they stack up really leaves me comfortable with us not even considering a long term deal until 2017's preseason. When revenues were modestly increasing, the third tag seemed suicidal. But if revenues stay on track this year and next it'll be relatively easy to absorb. Even if revenues flatten somewhat in 2017.
