Paying Wilson May Hurt Seahawks Super Bowl Chances-Nemhauser

[netskier]

Sarcasm is irony with intent to injure, but I do take your point. Seriously, I am just trying to stimulate discussion until training camp starts. I will probably play devils advocate for a while, so please play along so we can have some fun with it, or return to our regularly scheduled programming, as you prefer.

 

[kearly]

I have nothing against Hawkblogger at all, but I disagree with the article 100%. For starters, it contains factual errors about QBs on rookie deals, for example Eli. I looked it up last month, QB by QB, and only 9 of the 22 Super Bowl winners in the cap era were on rookie deals when they won.

As far as the % argument, that is also bunk for very obvious reasons. QBs are getting paid more today across the board than they were even 10 years ago. Of course they would be, the NFL is much more of a passer's league in 2015 than it was in 2005. So when you are talking about QBs winning SB's while earning 13% or more of cap space, that pool of QBs was minuscule for most of the last 22 years, but is HUGE today where EVERY starting QB, even Alex Smith or Andy Dalton, is making 16+ million. Hence, this stat is about to do a 180 in a hurry. Especially since the current crop of rookie contract QBs (other than Wilson and Luck for another year) are extreme long shots to win.

As far as the individual QB argument, that's also pretty silly. There are 15 QBs in this league today who are good enough to win a SB. That's a lot of competition. It's harder than it's ever been to be a QB who wins multiple championships.

And since elite QBs are worth WAY more in terms of wins per dollar than elite players at other positions, it's a fool's errand to ditch an elite QB and hope to make up the difference with players at other positions.

If there is any shadow of truth to this notion about an elite QB hurting his team, it's that most elite QBs are acquired through good fortune and do not reflect a team's ability to draft or make savvy signings. Bill Polian has six executive of the year awards thanks to picking #1 overall in 1998, despite the fact that he was eventually exposed as a below average GM.

But those issues don't have anything to do with Seattle, who get more bang for their buck from the draft than any team the NFL has seen in a very long time. Wilson will get paid, then he will win 3-5 more championships, and we will look back and laugh about this conversation.

 

[hawknation2015]

As far as the % argument, that is also bunk for very obvious reasons. QBs are getting paid more today across the board than they were even 10 years ago. Of course they would be, the NFL is much more of a passer's league in 2015 than it was in 2005. So when you are talking about QBs winning SB's while earning 13% or more of cap space, that pool of QBs was minuscule for most of the last 22 years, but is HUGE today where EVERY starting QB, even Alex Smith or Andy Dalton, is making 16+ million. Hence, this stat is about to do a 180 in a hurry. Especially since the current crop of rookie contract QBs (other than Wilson and Luck for another year) are extreme long shots to win.

There is actually only ONE quarterback in the entire league who is taking up more than 14% of his team's salary cap this season. That QB is Drew Brees, and that is only the case because the Saints unwisely pushed most of his cap hit into the final two years of his deal. That terrible contract structure is one of the reasons the Saints were seriously hampered this off-season, forcing them to trade several key contributors . . . including Jimmy Graham.

Last year, there were only two QBs making more than 14% of their team's cap: Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger (14.2%).

Of the two QBs you mentioned, Dalton's cap hit does not reach $16 million until the 2018 season. Smith doesn't reach that amount until next year. Dalton's cap percentage last year was under 7%, while Smith's was only 3%. With the way their contracts are structured, neither one will ever burden their team with a cap hit above 11%.

 

[erik2690]

In fact, Wilson has equated this negotiation to North Carolina State's decision to force him to transfer his senior year. When in reality, all evidence points to the fact that this is nothing like situation, as the Seahawks have put a "market value" offer on the table that would make him one of the three highest paid players in the game.

Where are you getting that from? He didn't say anything about it relating to being "forced out". He compared the possibility of changing locations and situations to the fact that he's already done that. As in 'No matter where I am I think I can handle it and be successful'. He never indicated the Seahawks would be forcing that in the way you make it seem. He was comparing life experiences not making a direct comparison of surrounding circumstance, just results.

 

[IndyHawk]

I'm on the fence with paying Russ huge amounts every year that hurt the teams ability to contend for Super Bowls.I know some will say without Russ it won't happen but that all depends on what you think gets us there.I believe it's our defense and running game more than just Russ.I believe there are qb's who would be good game managers for the Hawks at low cost so we could build up our defense and offense even more to help this QB.The cap will go up but it's not going to be high enough to pay anybody 30 million without hurting the teams playoff chances.The thought of having a Flacco type situation makes me sick and thats what I can see happening.You lose too much talent you can't afford to pay because of one guy pretty much.I'd love to keep Russ just not at all costs.

 

[erik2690]

The rumor now is that Wilson wants around $30 million per year in new money.

Can you cite this? Guys like Hsu have maintained for weeks that the main stumbling block was guaranteed money, I've seen no one report 30 at all. 24 is like the highest I've seen anywhere.

 

[hawknation2015]

:thirishdrinkers:

In fact, Wilson has equated this negotiation to North Carolina State's decision to force him to transfer his senior year. When in reality, all evidence points to the fact that this is nothing like situation, as the Seahawks have put a "market value" offer on the table that would make him one of the three highest paid players in the game.

Where are you getting that from? He didn't say anything about it relating to being "forced out". He compared the possibility of changing locations and situations to the fact that he's already done that. As in 'No matter where I am I think I can handle it and be successful'. He never indicated the Seahawks would be forcing that in the way you make it seem. He was comparing life experiences not making a direct comparison of surrounding circumstance, just results.

I disagree because he said "I've been moved around before," referring to being forced out at NC State, not "I've moved around before." One is an affirmative statement that takes some responsibility for his actions that have resulted in a prolonged negotiation (firing his experienced agent and hiring litigious baseball agent) and the other is passive (something that is being done to him by the team).

 

[BadgerVid]

The rumor now is that Wilson wants around $30 million per year in new money.

Can you cite this? Guys like Hsu have maintained for weeks that the main stumbling block was guaranteed money, I've seen no one report 30 at all. 24 is like the highest I've seen anywhere.

That is a reference to the Connor Orr article posted yesterday in which he said that an unnamed "NFL contract advisor" speculated that Wilson was "likely" asking $30M as a bargaining point. Pure conjecture worthy of this board...and jumped upon by those who would demonize RW for not accepting whatever the team offers.

 

[erik2690]

I disagree because he said "I've been moved around before," referring to being forced out at NC State, not "I've moved around before." One is an affirmative statement that takes some responsibility for his actions that have resulted in a prolonged negotiation (firing his experienced agent and hiring litigious baseball agent) and the other is passive (something that is being done to him by the team).

No. He's referring to the past situation as 'moved around' because that's what happened then, but didn't say 'and if I'm moved around again'. I disagree and to base your opinion on what he meant of that seems silly quite frankly. He said the same thing 2 weeks earlier at OTA's and said he'd like to not move around again. Also, are you sure he hired Rodgers after firing Cook? He's had Rodgers as his agent since college and is like part of his extended family. Cook is the one who was only on board a short time not Rodgers. He had both for a time is how I understood it.

 

[hawknation2015]

The rumor now is that Wilson wants around $30 million per year in new money.

Can you cite this? Guys like Hsu have maintained for weeks that the main stumbling block was guaranteed money, I've seen no one report 30 at all. 24 is like the highest I've seen anywhere.

Sure, this latest rumor from NFL.com is being discussed a lot in the other contract thread. The demand for an inordinate amount of guaranteed money is another rumored holdup.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... or-russell

 

[hawknation2015]

I disagree because he said "I've been moved around before," referring to being forced out at NC State, not "I've moved around before." One is an affirmative statement that takes some responsibility for his actions that have resulted in a prolonged negotiation (firing his experienced agent and hiring litigious baseball agent) and the other is passive (something that is being done to him by the team).

No. He's referring to the past situation as 'moved around' because that's what happened then, but didn't say 'and if I'm moved around again'. I disagree and to base your opinion on what he meant of that seems silly quite frankly. He said the same thing 2 weeks earlier at OTA's and said he'd like to not move around again. Also, are you sure he hired Rodgers after firing Cook? He's had Rodgers as his agent since college and is like part of his extended family. Cook is the one who was only on board a short time not Rodgers. He had both for a time is how I understood it.

I disagree with any comparison to what happened to him at NC State. "I've been moved around before" implied that he might be moved around again. If he does not sign a long-term deal with the Seahawks, then it will be him who has instigated a move by turning down our offers. By the way, welcome to the board.

:2:

 

[bmorepunk]

As for the example you are looking for, how about the Packers? They won a Super Bowl two years after trading Favre. The Rams traded Trent Green for a First Round pick, making undrafted Kurt Warner their starting QB; they won a Super Bowl that same year. Maybe there is a better example, but it is rare because usually both the franchise QB and the team have a mutual interest in paying the QB a fair market deal that also allows for cap flexibility.

Favre and Wilson aren't the most comparable players, since Favre was almost 40 when he got traded.

Trent Green's trade didn't make Warner the starter. Green's season-ending injury in preseason did, and Warner was magic. Green was traded after the following season after he managed to get some playing time with Warner out.

 

[HawKnPeppa]

Nobody said go offer him 27 million per year right?

Bottom line was Wilson's camp wanted 2015 on the table for who knows maybe a $10 million raise? You'd think they might be realistic about a 20 million per year contract extension after that. We definitely could afford that type of money but sadly it seems both sides elected to play hardball now.

First of all, we don't have $10 million in cap space this season just lying around, so that won't work. The rumor now is that Wilson wants around $30 million per year in new money. In your hypothetical: $10 million more this year, in addition to $22 million over the next four years, would be the equivalent of $24.5 million APY in new money. I think that would still be excessively high and a real detriment to our ability to win Super Bowls.

The whole idea of breaking from the accepted norm in the NFL and compensating Wilson for being a 3rd Round pick is a nonstarter. Ultimately, it's simply a tactic to artificially inflate his demands beyond the point that is acceptable.

The more I read, the more I'm convinced that he just wants to work his way back to the East Coast while remaining politically correct.

 

[hawknation2015]

Nobody said go offer him 27 million per year right?

Bottom line was Wilson's camp wanted 2015 on the table for who knows maybe a $10 million raise? You'd think they might be realistic about a 20 million per year contract extension after that. We definitely could afford that type of money but sadly it seems both sides elected to play hardball now.

First of all, we don't have $10 million in cap space this season just lying around, so that won't work. The rumor now is that Wilson wants around $30 million per year in new money. In your hypothetical: $10 million more this year, in addition to $22 million over the next four years, would be the equivalent of $24.5 million APY in new money. I think that would still be excessively high and a real detriment to our ability to win Super Bowls.

The whole idea of breaking from the accepted norm in the NFL and compensating Wilson for being a 3rd Round pick is a nonstarter. Ultimately, it's simply a tactic to artificially inflate his demands beyond the point that is acceptable.

The more I read, the more I'm convinced that he just wants to work his way back to the East Coast while remaining politically correct.

I think he believes he can get anything he wants if he just believes hard enough in it. Over 15% of the cap, $25+ million per year, and still go to the Super Bowl every year. Hell, maybe he is right. I also think he truly would like to play for one team for the rest of his career, because there is a certain nobility to that idea, so long as that team is willing to pay him a bajillion more than any other player in the league and to take on enormous risk by guaranteeing most of it.

 

[Tical21]

There have been situations where vets have left and backups won Super Bowls within a few years. Montana and Favre come to mind. Although, I'm not sure we have Steve Young or Aaron Rodgers on our current roster. Not many other starters really leave their teams. It has worked out okay for SD after Brees left. The Pats did pretty well after Bledsoe. There is a sentiment that letting Russell get away automatically spells doom and gloom. Kip stated previously that 15 teams have QB's capable of winning a Super Bowl. I actually think we could win one with a few more than that.

We're built around having an awesome defense and running game. They have been the overriding keys to our success. The ballsy thing is to keep that together. We all want to keep Russell. But if you're offering me 25 million per year and 2 first round draft picks for him, with a decent chance of those being high picks, man I'm thinking hard about that. It took Pete and John two years to find a QB they could win a Super Bowl with. And we believe wholeheartedly in those guys. Don't we give them a pretty darn good shot at doing it again? If, and I know it is a substantial "if", they can find another QB and keep the rest of the team together, we rattle off rings. Not one, not two.....

I think paying any player 25+ million dollars severely hamstrings your chances of winning Super Bowls. The numbers, although the sample set only goes back 15 years or so, certainly back this. Nobody pays their QB top-dollar and wins Super Bowls. It just doesn't happen. Could we buck the odds? Sure. Why not? We have been doing just that for the last couple of seasons.

There is another argument at play here. I do think there is a large number of fans, that if made to decide between winning another Super Bowl, or keeping Russell Wilson for the next decade, would choose Russell Wilson. There is certainly some value to that too.

ETA: Kip, you've made a post this week that I can't find now, that basically states that franchise QB's can and should basically get whatever they want, as this is what the model dictates. If this is the case, I contend that the model is broken, and will be exposed. The team that pulls it off correctly, lets their franchise QB walk, and proceeds to win anyways, will blaze a new trail. Do you think there is any chance that Schneider wants to be that trailblazer, and wants to take on that challenge?

 

[erik2690]

We're built around having an awesome defense and running game. They have been the overriding keys to our success.

You make a lot of well considered points, but I always want to make sure people are acknowledging that RW and the "awesome....running game" are not separate entities. The running game is advanced both in just raw yardage and in perceived threat by RW. He takes eyes on the defense and helps Marshawn even when he hands it off. You didn't expressly say otherwise, but I like to acknowledge this as I've seen some act like the run game and RW are not effecting one another.

 

[Rocket]

There is a number where the Seahawks would be better to move on from Wilson and take the 2+ first round picks plus cap space. Schneider and Carroll have that number. Seahawks fans should be thankful that they do.

:th2thumbs:

 

[Tical21]

We're built around having an awesome defense and running game. They have been the overriding keys to our success.

You make a lot of well considered points, but I always want to make sure people are acknowledging that RW and the "awesome....running game" are not separate entities. The running game is advanced both in just raw yardage and in perceived threat by RW. He takes eyes on the defense and helps Marshawn even when he hands it off. You didn't expressly say otherwise, but I like to acknowledge this as I've seen some act like the run game and RW are not effecting one another.

Always a sound point, and I do buy it to an extent. However, if we were to bring in a different quarterback, hopefully he would either be a pretty good runner in his own right, or perhaps a bit more proficient as a standard dropback quarterback. In either of those two cases, the running game would still remain strong. I believe Pete will do whatever it takes to ensure that we have one of the better running games in the league, as long as we have an elite defense.

 

[drdiags]

To me the bigger picture issue is that the team never followed up on their promise to draft the QB position hard. Maybe all the QBs over the past 3 yrs stink to high heaven but the Seahawks have not grown the position. Instead of consistently spending high draft picks on DL like Irvin or Clark, maybe they have to look at bringing in a 2nd round QB that has a chance of sticking.

The team has not been serious about putting talent in the QB/RB or WR position in my estimation. I like the young talent in the WR group but what happens when Lynch, Baldwin and others have to move on from these position groups? I am not sure what the team does in regards to Wilson, but he and his agent may as well shoot for the moon, someone will blink sooner or later. Until then, opinion pieces and debates will reign.

 

[camdawg]

I'm on the fence with paying Russ huge amounts every year that hurt the teams ability to contend for Super Bowls.I know some will say without Russ it won't happen but that all depends on what you think gets us there.I believe it's our defense and running game more than just Russ.I believe there are qb's who would be good game managers for the Hawks at low cost so we could build up our defense and offense even more to help this QB.The cap will go up but it's not going to be high enough to pay anybody 30 million without hurting the teams playoff chances.The thought of having a Flacco type situation makes me sick and thats what I can see happening.You lose too much talent you can't afford to pay because of one guy pretty much.I'd love to keep Russ just not at all costs.

But here's the tough thing-there really aren't good game managers out there who are good enough to not screw it up. Besides, the game managers are still expensive anyway. Look at Dalton's and Alex Smith's contracts. In addition to giving up the better passing abilities of Russ, you're giving up the extraordinary rushing abilities. So both the rushing and passing offense are taking a serious hit.

And you can't really build up our defense any more than it already has been. Any actual upgrades at defensive tackle are just about as expensive as the difference between Russ and the game manager. And they won't help you win a title-see Detroit with Suh, or Houston with Watt. You really can't upgrade the linebackers. You can try to upgrade the RCB, but the for sure upgrades are as expensive as the difference between Russ and the game manager QB. And those corners aren't available (Revis, Haden), or aren't likely to be (Chris Harris).

You can't give a game manager QB enough weapons to make them good. Detroit has tried and failed. Houston tried with Schaub, and failed. Cincy has failed. Atlanta gave Matt Ryan the best passing weapons money and draft capital could buy, and failed.

It is possible that we have to make a choice between basically keeping Russ, and keeping Bobby or Bruce. Would be a shame to lose one of those linebackers, but there's no way a linebacker should take precedence over a quarterback.