TwistedHusky":dml0xgt3 said:
My mind is blown that people do not understand this.
You pay what you have to because only the teams with great QBs have a chance in the playoffs. It is expensive because only 1/4 to 1/3 of the league gets the chance because only those teams have top QBs.
There is a freaking reason that teams tank for QBs, even if the odds are something like 1 in 3 you even get a great QB when you tank. Because without a great QB, not just a good QB but a great one, you lose any opportunity for a SuperBowl before the season even starts.
Maybe one or two might sneak in.
But conference rounds of the playoffs are for the top tier QBs, not for the rest.
This is the reason that the Browns, who have finally started winning after years of struggle, and have one of THE best rushing attacks in the NFL....are still looking to move on from the QB that made the difference for them.
Because a difference is not enough, you need a great QB to be a playoff team.
Whether Wilson plays the way Pete wants, or the team likes, or even if he murders families at night on the weekends...hardly matters. Whether you or anyone else on the team likes him, hates him, loves him, or despises him - Wilson can be a great QB.
Great QBs are more important than great coaches. More important than any other player on the field. And they are obscenely hard to draft, or even identify among other top QBs at the top tiers of the draft.
That people want to run him off, regardless of the reason, is baffling. That is literally our only chance to be a relevant playoff team (ie win a division playoff game).
This just isn't true, though. Not even close.
In just the last five years, the conference rounds have hosted teams led by Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff, Case Keenum, Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz/Nick Foles, Blake Bortles, plus Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger who both sit on the cusp of whether they are considered elite or not. That's not 'one or two'.
If you expand it to the last decade, we get the truly terrible 2015 version of Peyton Manning, more career mid-tiers like Alex Smith and Joe Flacco and more 'borderline' top-tier talent like Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Colin Kaepernick, and, oh yeah, that one guy who managed to go to two straight Super Bowls even though his team passed the ball less over those two years than any other team in the NFL and who, despite having one of the best RBs in the league, still only barely managed to be better than 'average' when it came to putting points on the board... what was his name again?
ivotuk":dml0xgt3 said:
No matter what. Unless you're happy with a game manager like Jimmy G, Mariota or Tannehill.
Without Tom Brady, the Bucs don't win the SB.
Russell Wilson wins 4thQuarter and OT games. You can't win it all with anything less at QB unless you have a once in a lifetime defense.
Russell will win it all again, even without the greatest D. A "good" D is required for any QB however.
You need an Elite QB, and a Top 10 Scoring Defense. Otherwise you're just the most recent versions of the Falcons, Rams, 49ers and Chiefs to reach the SuperBowl.
When Russell Wilson went to the Super Bowl, he was passing the ball less than any other starter in the NFL. He had one of the best RBs in the league and we only managed to be just barely better than average at scoring. He was the DEFINITION of a game manager. Yeah, he managed some impressive game winning drives but if he had actually been, you know, scoring points like any of the elite offenses were, we wouldn't have needed them.
Also, our D this year was just barely out of the top 10 of scoring Ds and if our QB, who we're going to give $50 million to, managed to improve our average drive to just bottom 3 (instead of dead last by a good margin), we'd have ended up a top 5 scoring D just based on that many fewer drives given to our opponents.
All this being said, I don't know if I give Russ $50 mill or not, so I didn't vote. Do I think he's actually a 5-game difference QB? Definitely not this year or the last half of last year. Do I think he can be? Yes. But the more pressing issue is what the market for QBs is going to be.
QBs, even average ones, are grossly overpaid right now, so we'll just see what the market is. $50 million might end up being considered a 'reasonable' price for even just a slightly better than average QB and if Russ plays into the system (like he did the last couple of years this year), he's way better than that, so it might not be that big of a mistake.