Russell Wilson's contract pushed to next year?

[hawknation2015]

This next year he is playing at 1.5 mi no matter what. If we tag him it is 25 mil they will not use the non exclusive. next year it is 32 mil that is 57 mil in 2 years. and then he gets his big payday and probably even more than we are offering and he has los nothing. ALso the whole 2 draft pick thing is only partial right.

Where are you getting 25M for the first year of tagging Russell?

The 2015 QB tag is 18.51M

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... ag-figures

2014 it was 16.19M, so no way it gets bumped up to 25M for 2016. At most it'll get bumped 10-15%, which would be in the 20M range. So we're not looking at a 25M tag amount until at least 2017, maybe even 2018 if it's another modest 10% bump in 2017.

That's the Non-Exclusive tag (the one we would likely use). The Exclusive tag is higher.

 

[LymonHawk]

:34853_doh: Here we go again!

 

[DavidSeven]

If Russell's agent can get him to free agency at any point, which he seems quite intent on doing, then I don't see a scenario where Seattle can afford him without gutting a significant portion of its roster. It's in Seattle's best interest to get this deal done now before escalating franchise tags and the subsequent FA bidding war price him off the team altogether.

That being said, no one knows what the offer is right now. Perhaps Russell's demands truly are ridiculous. Or maybe he's truly getting low balled by the team. If it's the former, you can blame his agent all you want, but Russell very specifically chose a baseball agent on his own. I have always advocated for him to get himself a max deal, but there also comes a point when that becomes a true detriment to the team he plays for, and hopefully his people understand that.

If he wants to be at or near the current highest paid QB, I say that is a warranted demand. If he's talking about making a few million/year over the next guy on a shorter deal that only favors him, then you start to question whether he and his reps are really seeing the big picture.

 

[Anthony!]

actually at best 1 year of tagging we canno9t afford 32 mil for one year with our cap and that is what it would be the 2nd tag year I am not sure we can afford the 25M+ for the 1st tag.

You're using the exclusive tag numbers... not the non-exclusive numbers, which is much more probable that Seattle's FO would do.

An interested team would have to give up two firsts and and also extend a contract offer to Wilson, which Seattle can match... and they would if it ever came to that.

What Wilson and his agent are overlooking is he's never going to make up the lost income of going in that direction.

First what lost income let me help

This next year he is playing at 1.5 mi no matter what. If we tag him it is 25 mil they will not use the non exclusive. next year it is 32 mil that is 57 mil in 2 years. and then he gets his big payday and probably even more than we are offering and he has los nothing. ALso the whole 2 draft pick thing is only partial right

"What is a transition tag? It's essentially worth the average of the top 10 salaries at a player's position or 120% the value of his 2014 salary (whichever is higher). Players with the transition tag can negotiate with other clubs, but their original team does not receive draft pick compensation if they fail to match an outside offer. (Two teams used the transition tag in 2014.)"

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nf ... /24222597/

If the do not match the exact offer they get nothing and guess what, if someone offers a deal we cannot match he is gone if they do match Wilson gets what he wants. To me the transition tag is like giving Wilson a prize and they might as well just pay him now. It is a huge gamble and the odds are in Wilsons favor. FYI current top 10 salaries avg is 20 mil
about what they are offering now, and will go up when Luck signs which in likelihood will be next year.

Just to be clear, there is an exclusive rights tag meaning he can't negotiate with anyone else and it's the highest number possible, then there's the non-exclusive rights tag, which is slightly lower. The first one we keep him no matter what, the second, he can negotiate with other teams and we can match or get 2 first round picks.

The Transition tag is pretty useless and rarely used and I don't see anyone considering it as a tool to keep Wilson.

Okay got it however one it is still a huge gamble, and 2 "The non-exclusive offer level is...well, it's complicated.

The NFL starts by calculating a "franchise tag" amount for each of the prior five years. The franchise tag amount is the average of the top five salaries at each position for each year. Then the NFL adds up the last five franchise tag amounts and divides them by the prior five total salary-cap amounts.

The NFL takes this rolling five-year average of how much of the salary cap that position's franchise tag takes up, then takes that percentage of this year's salary cap as the non-exclusive offer amount."

So a little cheaper is not much cheaper and is not worth the gamble but I see about the 2 #1s however for some teams it will be worth it to get a franchise QB. Add to that if they do it, it will probably be an insult to Wilson and we can kiss him goodbye. Basically if the Hawks think any QB would do they will do it, if not they will not. We will learn how they view Wilson soon, but if they use the non exclusive they might be shooting themselves.

 

[Anthony!]

This next year he is playing at 1.5 mi no matter what. If we tag him it is 25 mil they will not use the non exclusive. next year it is 32 mil that is 57 mil in 2 years. and then he gets his big payday and probably even more than we are offering and he has los nothing. ALso the whole 2 draft pick thing is only partial right.

Where are you getting 25M for the first year of tagging Russell?

The 2015 QB tag is 18.51M

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... ag-figures

2014 it was 16.19M, so no way it gets bumped up to 25M for 2016. At most it'll get bumped 10-15%, which would be in the 20M range. So we're not looking at a 25M tag amount until at least 2017, maybe even 2018 if it's another modest 10% bump in 2017.

that was before the rash of new deals happened. it all changed thanks to the new deals.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

If Russell's agent can get him to free agency at any point, which he seems quite intent on doing, then I don't see a scenario where Seattle can afford him without gutting a significant portion of its roster.

Do you think there's a part of Russell that wants this?

Russell's always talking about how he wants to be one of the greatest QB's of all time, so it'd make sense that he'd like to throw it around more like the other "elite" QB's like Rodgers, Brees, Brady, etc.

So deep down, maybe he would like to be 75% of the offense because we can't afford 3-4 key players on defense and an elite RB.

 

[Anthony!]

If Russell's agent can get him to free agency at any point, which he seems quite intent on doing, then I don't see a scenario where Seattle can afford him without gutting a significant portion of its roster. It's in Seattle's best interest to get this deal done now before escalating franchise tags and the subsequent FA bidding war price him off the team altogether.

That being said, no one knows what the offer is right now. Perhaps Russell's demands truly are ridiculous. Or maybe he's truly getting low balled by the team. If it's the former, you can blame his agent all you want, but Russell very specifically chose a baseball agent on his own. I have always advocated for him to get himself a max deal, but there also comes a point when that becomes a true detriment to the team he plays for, and hopefully his people understand that.

If he wants to be at or near the current highest paid QB, I say that is a warranted demand. If he's talking about making a few million/year over the next guy on a shorter deal that only favors him, then you start to question whether he and his reps are really seeing the big picture.

exactly

 

[Anthony!]

If Russell's agent can get him to free agency at any point, which he seems quite intent on doing, then I don't see a scenario where Seattle can afford him without gutting a significant portion of its roster.

Do you think there's a part of Russell that wants this?

Russell's always talking about how he wants to be one of the greatest QB's of all time, so it'd make sense that he'd like to throw it around more like the other "elite" QB's like Rodgers, Brees, Brady, etc.

So deep down, maybe he would like to be 75% of the offense because we can't afford 3-4 key players on defense and an elite RB.

he already makes up 69% of the offensive yards, and 60% of the tds so he is pretty close already and with Lynch leaving soon it will only go up.

 

[Hawks46]

His agent is doing him a disservice.

I dunno, man. Chances are pretty high that the Seahawks will win another Lombardi this year, and that just makes his price tag go up, even if we do Franchise him for 2 seasons, he still stands to make bank. I have absolutely no issue with Russell doing this. The FO shouldn't have tried to low-ball him if they didn't want this happening.

Wilson has even more leverage than this, honestly. If he wins another Lombardi, his value goes up. If he puts up "elite" numbers, his value goes up (and likely will with Graham on the roster and an upgraded WR corps), also, Luck will sign a contract this next year, and you can bet Indy will bend over and give him whatever he wants. So Luck's salary will also be added to the negotiations, also upp'ing the ante on the franchise tag.

The Seahawks have a lot of leverage as well. They own WIlson's rights this year for a meager 1.5 million. Next year, they can tag him for approximately 20 million, which added together is less than Wilson is asking for one year. After that, we can probably still afford to tag Wilson one more time, coming to around Kearly's 45 million estimate, which is around what Wilson is asking for for 2 years. So for 3 years, the Hawks come out ahead by NOT signing Wilson.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

If the reports are true, the Hawks aren't "lowballing" Russell. Most people believe that a four year 87M deal is fair.

IMO Russell is just following his agents advice, ask for the moon...........or plan B, take this to free agency where if everything goes as planned (continued elite play + another SB or two) he'll have 10-15 teams fighting over him like a pack of piranha, most of which will have plenty of cap space to over pay.

 

[Anthony!]

Not sure if this was posted but

"Russell Wilson on contract talks with Seattle: “I believe it’s going to work out. I want to be here for a long time”

Read more here: http://www.thenewstribune.com/2015/06/0 ... rylink=cpy

 

[Largent80]

Holycrap guys I'm on my phone and you are giving my thumb tendonitis from scrolling. We have Wilson for the next three years regardless of any and all scenarios. Period.

 

[volsunghawk]

If Russell's agent can get him to free agency at any point, which he seems quite intent on doing, then I don't see a scenario where Seattle can afford him without gutting a significant portion of its roster. It's in Seattle's best interest to get this deal done now before escalating franchise tags and the subsequent FA bidding war price him off the team altogether.

That being said, no one knows what the offer is right now. Perhaps Russell's demands truly are ridiculous. Or maybe he's truly getting low balled by the team. If it's the former, you can blame his agent all you want, but Russell very specifically chose a baseball agent on his own. I have always advocated for him to get himself a max deal, but there also comes a point when that becomes a true detriment to the team he plays for, and hopefully his people understand that.

If he wants to be at or near the current highest paid QB, I say that is a warranted demand. If he's talking about making a few million/year over the next guy on a shorter deal that only favors him, then you start to question whether he and his reps are really seeing the big picture.

I don't expect the market for QBs is going to jump up by leaps and bounds in a single season. It's not like we'd have to pay Wilson $23M APY this year and $33M APY next year.

I'm fine with Wilson taking out the policy and playing out his last year. That saves the team quite a bit of cap space this season. Maybe they can have Thomas and Sherman do restructures that move a little more of their cap hit into this year while Wilson plays out his rookie deal in order to give the team more flexibility next year when they lock Wilson down long-term.

 

[DavidSeven]

If Russell's agent can get him to free agency at any point, which he seems quite intent on doing, then I don't see a scenario where Seattle can afford him without gutting a significant portion of its roster.

Do you think there's a part of Russell that wants this?

I would hope not, but I guess you never know what drives people.

The last time there was a bidding war for a QB, Peyton Manning was coming off a broken neck and excluded all the bad teams. He still got $20M/year. For a young, healthy QB with untapped upside? There is no number enough. Teams like the Browns, Jets, Jags and Raiders went into the offseason with over $50M in free cap space. Why wouldn't some desperate team throw a huge chunk of that at him? It will be A-Rod leaving Seattle all over again. I could see Russell still coming out ahead financially overall even if he was forced to make a little less for the next three years.

 

[Anthony!]

If the reports are true, the Hawks aren't "lowballing" Russell. Most people believe that a four year 87M deal is fair.

IMO Russell is just following his agents advice, ask for the moon...........or plan B, take this to free agency where if everything goes as planned (continued elite play + another SB or two) he'll have 10-15 teams fighting over him like a pack of piranha, most of which will have plenty of cap space to over pay.

again 4 years 87 mil is great but we do not know if this is true and what the bonuses and guarantees are or how it is put together. If they offered that but only 30 mil in guarantees that is low balled. So we really still do not know, nor have I seen anything in writing about the 4 years 87 mil only the 4 years 80 mil.

 

[DavidSeven]

I don't expect the market for QBs is going to jump up by leaps and bounds in a single season. It's not like we'd have to pay Wilson $23M APY this year and $33M APY next year.

There really is no definable market because all upper-tier QBs over the last several years have been extended prior to hitting free agency. We have not seen a true bidding war since Peyton Manning, and he was coming off a broken neck and excluded several teams from bidding. I don't think anyone can predict what the actual market would be if you let every single team bid. Ndamukong Suh would have never got a $116M deal unless he actually went through free agency. His deal blew all market expectations out of the water.

As I mentioned before, there are multiple QB-hungry teams that had upwards of $50-70M in free cap space this offseason. There will be other teams that find themselves in that situation two years from now. If you were the Browns or Jets, why wouldn't you go all-in? Would they constrain themselves to "market prices"? If I was their GM, I wouldn't.

 

[hawknation2015]

Clayton is saying the Seahawks most recent offer would make him the 3rd highest paid player in the game.

What we are hearing now from Rapoport is that Wilson wants to be the highest paid player in the game AND that he wants a highly guaranteed deal that a baseball or basketball player would get.

These are the two most recent updates on both sides of the negotiations.

IMO, this is a cat and mouse game. Schneider probably wants Wilson's agent to come back down to earth before he offers him a deal that would make Wilson the highest paid player in the game.

The question is whether Wilson will accept that offer -- my guess would be that it comes after training camp -- or whether he will want even more.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

If the reports are true, the Hawks aren't "lowballing" Russell. Most people believe that a four year 87M deal is fair.

IMO Russell is just following his agents advice, ask for the moon...........or plan B, take this to free agency where if everything goes as planned (continued elite play + another SB or two) he'll have 10-15 teams fighting over him like a pack of piranha, most of which will have plenty of cap space to over pay.

again 4 years 87 mil is great but we do not know if this is true and what the bonuses and guarantees are or how it is put together. If they offered that but only 30 mil in guarantees that is low balled. So we really still do not know, nor have I seen anything in writing about the 4 years 87 mil only the 4 years 80 mil.

........and you're not ever going to know, at least not from the Hawk's side. Schneider doesn't talk about contract negotiations. But he has been around here long enough and done enough deals that we've seen with our other elite players to know that he's not the kind of guy that just lowballs players. He's fair and sticks to his word of taking care of his best players.

So if we know all this about Schneider, I'd say whatever Russell's been offered is more than fair. Maybe not the highest paid player with guarantees in the league, but close. IMO if Russell and his agent are asking for Aaron Rodgers money, or more? Than that's crazy.

 

[AgentDib]

Having an insurance policy is a prudent decision for RW regardless of how negotiations are proceeding. It not only protects him if he does play out the season but perhaps just as importantly doubles as a negotiation tactic showing his commitment to not taking the currently offered deal. As such, knowing that he has an insurance policy provides zero useful information as to the state of negotiations.

So we really still do not know, nor have I seen anything in writing about the 4 years 87 mil only the 4 years 80 mil.

We don't actually know anything about any numbers. It's important to remember that speculation does not become fact simply by virtue of being published. We only learned the full truth about the Hutch negotiations eight years after the fact and it will probably be about that long before we learn the truth behind these negotiations. In the absence of having information the prudent thing to do is to wait, or failing that to rely on the track record of both parties.

 

[Tical21]

Not naming names, but it seems like somebody around here took a ton of heat from the peanut gallery about two months ago when forecasting this exact scenario.

"You're crazy!" "There is zero chance this doesn't get done this offseason." "We have plenty of cap room to make this happen." "And Wagner too." "Russ will take a deal that will benefit both sides." "Jimmy Graham's gingervitis is so hot in those shorts!"

:3-1: