Russell Wilson's contract pushed to next year?

[DavidSeven]

As I mentioned before, there are multiple QB-hungry teams that had upwards of $50-70M in free cap space this offseason. There will be other teams that find themselves in that situation two years from now. If you were the Browns or Jets, why wouldn't you go all-in? Would they constrain themselves to "market prices"? If I was their GM, I wouldn't.

Clayton talked about this yesterday afternoon on 710, basically saying that teams like the Bills and Jets won't have the cap space in 2016 to make an offer that Seattle would be unable to match, whereas teams like the Browns wouldn't want to fork over two first-round picks. It's in the first few minutes of the linked podcast:

http://mynorthwest.com/category/pod_pla ... 13&n=Danny, Dave and Moore

I listened to this, and it seems like Clayton is making some really wild assumptions. For example, he says Houston wouldn't make an offer to Wilson because Bill O'Brien "doesn't like rollout quarterbacks." What?! That is preposterous. This isn't freakin' Marcus Mariota on draft day. This is Russell Wilson, proven Super Bowl winner, pro-style QB, and Mr. Efficiency. Also, the notion that Cleveland wouldn't surrender two first round picks for a legit franchise QB is patently absurd.

Clayton is talking about Wilson's potential offers like he's a mysterious prospect out of Oregon. That is not the reality of the situation. People around the league know what he can do at this level.

 

[Anthony!]

As I mentioned before, there are multiple QB-hungry teams that had upwards of $50-70M in free cap space this offseason. There will be other teams that find themselves in that situation two years from now. If you were the Browns or Jets, why wouldn't you go all-in? Would they constrain themselves to "market prices"? If I was their GM, I wouldn't.

Clayton talked about this yesterday afternoon on 710, basically saying that teams like the Bills and Jets won't have the cap space in 2016 to make an offer that Seattle would be unable to match, whereas teams like the Browns wouldn't want to fork over two first-round picks. It's in the first few minutes of the linked podcast:

http://mynorthwest.com/category/pod_pla ... 13&n=Danny, Dave and Moore

Things can change quick I would not count on that and there are still other teams, Houston, Philly maybe, SF, Rams, and who says it has to be 2016 when there is 2017. There will be interest and most importantly it only take one.

 

[Anthony!]

The bottom line is if Wilson wants to play hardball, we have Nolan Ryan, and he has Bobby Ayala.

For 3 years at least.

yeah keep thinking that way, you might be surprised, he has more leverage than you think.

 

[TheRealDTM]

I listened to this, and it seems like Clayton is making some really wild assumptions. For example, he says Houston wouldn't make an offer to Wilson because Bill O'Brien "doesn't like rollout quarterbacks." What?! That is preposterous. This isn't freakin' Marcus Mariota on draft day

Dude RW is the definition of rollout quarterback, it's what makes him successful at 5"9. When he tries to stand tall in the pocket and throw down the middle we lose superbowls.

 

[Anthony!]

This next year he is playing at 1.5 mi no matter what. If we tag him it is 25 mil they will not use the non exclusive. next year it is 32 mil that is 57 mil in 2 years. and then he gets his big payday and probably even more than we are offering and he has los nothing. ALso the whole 2 draft pick thing is only partial right.

Where are you getting 25M for the first year of tagging Russell?

The 2015 QB tag is 18.51M

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... ag-figures

2014 it was 16.19M, so no way it gets bumped up to 25M for 2016. At most it'll get bumped 10-15%, which would be in the 20M range. So we're not looking at a 25M tag amount until at least 2017, maybe even 2018 if it's another modest 10% bump in 2017.

Are you just making up numbers and assuming you're right?

The cap hit for a tag next year based on the top 5 salaries at QB is $25 million (go to Overthecap and do the math if you want). The cap hit for tagging him twice in a row would be 120% of his previous year salary, which would put him over $30 million in 2017.

You are wrong too. That is only for the exclusive tag. The non-exclusive tag is only around $19 million in 2016 and $23 million in 2017. John Clayton has said that if Wilson does not agree to an extension, we would use the non-exclusive tag and match any offer sheet Wilson decides to agree to with another team.

actually he assumed but again does not know, If I was Wilson and thought that might happen I would not show up this year till just before the season and force them to take it off the table. It might happen, he only needs to play 8 games for the whole season to count. Can we afford to loose year of ET, Sherman, and Kam, as well as Lynch? no.

 

[DavidSeven]

I listened to this, and it seems like Clayton is making some really wild assumptions. For example, he says Houston wouldn't make an offer to Wilson because Bill O'Brien "doesn't like rollout quarterbacks." What?! That is preposterous. This isn't freakin' Marcus Mariota on draft day

Dude RW is the definition of rollout quarterback, it's what makes him successful at 5"9. When he tries to stand tall in the pocket and throw down the middle we lose superbowls.

Yes, he's a rollout QB. The notion that a team like Houston wouldn't sign Wilson because he falls into that category (as Clayton suggests) is still absurd. Houston would be a perennial SB contender with Wilson, Watt and any half-decent RB.

He is proven regardless of his style of play unlike some spread-system college prospect, which is the point I was making.

 

[Anthony!]

Where are you getting 25M for the first year of tagging Russell?

The 2015 QB tag is 18.51M

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... ag-figures

2014 it was 16.19M, so no way it gets bumped up to 25M for 2016. At most it'll get bumped 10-15%, which would be in the 20M range. So we're not looking at a 25M tag amount until at least 2017, maybe even 2018 if it's another modest 10% bump in 2017.

Are you just making up numbers and assuming you're right?

The cap hit for a tag next year based on the top 5 salaries at QB is $25 million (go to Overthecap and do the math if you want). The cap hit for tagging him twice in a row would be 120% of his previous year salary, which would put him over $30 million in 2017.

You are wrong too. That is only for the exclusive tag. The non-exclusive tag is only around $19 million in 2016 and $23 million in 2017. John Clayton has said that if Wilson does not agree to an extension, we would use the non-exclusive tag and match any offer sheet Wilson decides to agree to with another team.

If you think a proven, super bowl winning QB, will not receive offers in excess of $24 million and two 1st round picks when tagged with a non-exclusive tag, you're out of your mind. Teams will jump at that chance.

Then you're stuck either paying a "free agency" negotiated price or are still losing your QB.

agreed teams that would need a QB and have the space in 2016 are:

Rams, Chargers depending in what happens with their current QB. niners, Broncos (what if Manning retired or they let him go), Houston, Eagles, Redskins(depends on RG3), Bears if they part ways with cutler, I can go on but you get the point. All info from overthecap.

 

[Anthony!]

Are you just making up numbers and assuming you're right?

The cap hit for a tag next year based on the top 5 salaries at QB is $25 million (go to Overthecap and do the math if you want). The cap hit for tagging him twice in a row would be 120% of his previous year salary, which would put him over $30 million in 2017.

You are wrong too. That is only for the exclusive tag. The non-exclusive tag is only around $19 million in 2016 and $23 million in 2017. John Clayton has said that if Wilson does not agree to an extension, we would use the non-exclusive tag and match any offer sheet Wilson decides to agree to with another team.

If you think a proven, super bowl winning QB, will not receive offers in excess of $24 million and two 1st round picks when tagged with a non-exclusive tag, you're out of your mind. Teams will jump at that chance.

Then you're stuck either paying a "free agency" negotiated price or are still losing your QB.

And that's fine; we will still match it anyway with the savings from this year. The onus would be on Wilson to (1) reject every Seahawks' extension offer over the next year and (2) agree to terms with another team. And even then, we will match it.

The point is Sgt. Largent's numbers were exactly right for the non-exclusive tag. And John Clayton believes we will exercise that option if we have to.

Dude there is no sure thing we will match it at all, it would depend on the deal and how it is structured and if you are so sure they will match it they might as well just pay him now. There is also no guarantee if we matched it he would take it, he could say no to any deal we did as a matching because we disrespected him, and there for it would cost us huge to tag him and even then only 3 years at most and he will still only be 29 and just entering his prime, and we will have tied up a huge amount to cap space for nothing. Remember clayton is speculating he too said a deal was close months ago, guess what he too was wrong.

 

[Anthony!]

One last time. Wilson WILL be a Seahawk for at least the next 3 years. That is all you need to know. There is no need to be an accountant here. Frankie says Relax.

[youtube]7WZ33w3B8Hw[/youtube]

I would not count on it.

 

[hawknation2015]

agreed teams that would need a QB and have the space in 2016 are:

Rams, Chargers depending in what happens with their current QB. niners, Broncos (what if Manning retired or they let him go), Houston, Eagles, Redskins(depends on RG3), Bears if they part ways with cutler, I can go on but you get the point. All info from overthecap.

Rams are already in talks to extend Foles.

Anyway, this is all irrelevant. Seahawks will have as much cap space as any other team in 2016 if Wilson does not agree to an extension -- they have only $108 million committed right now to 2016 and zero dead money.

If Wilson goes nuclear on them, refuses to accept the terms of any contract with the Seahawks over the next year, and then agrees to terms with another organization, we will be forced to match. I do not foresee this happening. Eventually, Wilson will agree to terms with the Seahawks or be forced to do so under the non-exclusive franchise tag.

 

[Anthony!]

I listened to this, and it seems like Clayton is making some really wild assumptions. For example, he says Houston wouldn't make an offer to Wilson because Bill O'Brien "doesn't like rollout quarterbacks." What?! That is preposterous. This isn't freakin' Marcus Mariota on draft day

Dude RW is the definition of rollout quarterback, it's what makes him successful at 5"9. When he tries to stand tall in the pocket and throw down the middle we lose superbowls.

okay dumb statement of the day.


Wilson in the pocket was ranked 9th in the league

https://www.profootballfocus.com/wp-con ... ramble.png

Guess what the other coaches and teams have this info too, as well as the lack of pass blocking numbers and who he has had to throw too.

 

[Anthony!]

agreed teams that would need a QB and have the space in 2016 are:

Rams, Chargers depending in what happens with their current QB. niners, Broncos (what if Manning retired or they let him go), Houston, Eagles, Redskins(depends on RG3), Bears if they part ways with cutler, I can go on but you get the point. All info from overthecap.

Rams are already in talks to extend Foles.

Anyway, this is all irrelevant. Seahawks will have as much cap space as any other team in 2016 if Wilson does not agree to an extension -- they have only $108 million committed right now to 2016 and zero dead money.

If Wilson goes nuclear on them, refuses to accept the terms of any contract with the Seahawks over the next year, and then agrees to terms with another organization, we will be forced to match. I do not foresee this happening. Eventually, Wilson will agree to terms with the Seahawks or be forced to do so under the non-exclusive franchise tag.

Ahh dude just because he gets an offer from another team and we match doe snot mean he has to agree to it with us, he can not and then we get only our 3 years and he is 28-29 and in his prime and can go any place. If this is the game the FO is playing it is very dangerous and could back fire huge, not to mention the message to other potential FOs. AS to Rams we will see, a lot can happen in 2 years.

 

[kidhawk]

Ahh dude just because he gets an offer from another team and we match doe snot mean he has to agree to it with us, he can not and then we get only our 3 years and he is 28-29 and in his prime and can go any place. If this is the game the FO is playing it is very dangerous and could back fire huge, not to mention the message to other potential FOs. AS to Rams we will see, a lot can happen in 2 years.

Maybe you don't understand the concept of the franchise tag. Even when it's not exclusive, the player cannot choose which team he wants to go to. He can negotiate with other teams. If he gets a team to make an offer, then it's up to the Seahawks to decide if they want to match that offer. If they do match the offer, they keep him, no matter what. If they don't, they get the two first round picks. At this point, he would have to play with us or hold out and not play at all. Those would be his only options.

It won't get to that point, but if it does, then we still hold the ace in the hole.

 

[joeseahawks]

I love Russell and I really want players to get paid. However, I disagree with RW wanting to be pay so much money. I'm glad the FO is not taking the bait.

 

[Anthony!]

Ahh dude just because he gets an offer from another team and we match doe snot mean he has to agree to it with us, he can not and then we get only our 3 years and he is 28-29 and in his prime and can go any place. If this is the game the FO is playing it is very dangerous and could back fire huge, not to mention the message to other potential FOs. AS to Rams we will see, a lot can happen in 2 years.

Maybe you don't understand the concept of the franchise tag. Even when it's not exclusive, the player cannot choose which team he wants to go to. He can negotiate with other teams. If he gets a team to make an offer, then it's up to the Seahawks to decide if they want to match that offer. If they do match the offer, they keep him, no matter what. If they don't, they get the two first round picks. At this point, he would have to play with us or hold out and not play at all. Those would be his only options.

It won't get to that point, but if it does, then we still hold the ace in the hole.

So find me a link that says a player has to sign a matched offer? So far I have not found it. I find it hard to believe a player can be forced to sign a deal, the NFLPA would not allow that.

 

[Anthony!]

I love Russell and I really want players to get paid. However, I disagree with RW wanting to be pay so much money. I'm glad the FO is not taking the bait.

So you have decided despite no fact saying so he is asking for to much. HMMM

 

[WilsonMVP]

If the reports are true, the Hawks aren't "lowballing" Russell. Most people believe that a four year 87M deal is fair.

IMO Russell is just following his agents advice, ask for the moon...........or plan B, take this to free agency where if everything goes as planned (continued elite play + another SB or two) he'll have 10-15 teams fighting over him like a pack of piranha, most of which will have plenty of cap space to over pay.

again 4 years 87 mil is great but we do not know if this is true and what the bonuses and guarantees are or how it is put together. If they offered that but only 30 mil in guarantees that is low balled. So we really still do not know, nor have I seen anything in writing about the 4 years 87 mil only the 4 years 80 mil.

........and you're not ever going to know, at least not from the Hawk's side. Schneider doesn't talk about contract negotiations. But he has been around here long enough and done enough deals that we've seen with our other elite players to know that he's not the kind of guy that just lowballs players. He's fair and sticks to his word of taking care of his best players.

So if we know all this about Schneider, I'd say whatever Russell's been offered is more than fair. Maybe not the highest paid player with guarantees in the league, but close. IMO if Russell and his agent are asking for Aaron Rodgers money, or more? Than that's crazy.

You mean the same JS that said they do not redo deals until they are in the last year and then do extention but then redid Lynchs deal? Yeah no. Also he made Sherman, ET, Lynch and Kam all the highest at the time at their position, SO why wouldn't they for Wilson and more importantly why would ne expect that.

IMO difference is Kam, ET, Sherman and Lynch are all arguably #1 at their respective positions. Wilson is clearly not

 

[TheRealDTM]

okay dumb statement of the day.


Wilson in the pocket was ranked 9th in the league

https://www.profootballfocus.com/wp-con ... ramble.png

Guess what the other coaches and teams have this info too, as well as the lack of pass blocking numbers and who he has had to throw too.

Thank you for labeling your post.

This whole issue is about RW wanting to be the highest paid QB, the fact he's ninth in that statistic only furthers the anti-high contract argument.

 

[Anthony!]

again 4 years 87 mil is great but we do not know if this is true and what the bonuses and guarantees are or how it is put together. If they offered that but only 30 mil in guarantees that is low balled. So we really still do not know, nor have I seen anything in writing about the 4 years 87 mil only the 4 years 80 mil.

........and you're not ever going to know, at least not from the Hawk's side. Schneider doesn't talk about contract negotiations. But he has been around here long enough and done enough deals that we've seen with our other elite players to know that he's not the kind of guy that just lowballs players. He's fair and sticks to his word of taking care of his best players.

So if we know all this about Schneider, I'd say whatever Russell's been offered is more than fair. Maybe not the highest paid player with guarantees in the league, but close. IMO if Russell and his agent are asking for Aaron Rodgers money, or more? Than that's crazy.

You mean the same JS that said they do not redo deals until they are in the last year and then do extention but then redid Lynchs deal? Yeah no. Also he made Sherman, ET, Lynch and Kam all the highest at the time at their position, SO why wouldn't they for Wilson and more importantly why would ne expect that.

IMO difference is Kam, ET, Sherman and Lynch are all arguably #1 at their respective positions. Wilson is clearly not

Perhaps but it is also harder to find a franchise QB then CB, FS, SS or RB. That said you might have just answered the question perhaps they do not value Wilson like they do those others, perhaps they think any QB would do, if right they are heroes if wrong they loose their jobs huge gamble since they tried it with any QB before. Oh well we will find out soon. FYI Lynch is not the #1 RB he is top 5 though. You could also Argue Sherman is not #1 and neither is Kam. ET no argument at all. That said they are all top 5 and guess what so is Wilson.

 

[hawknation2015]

Ahh dude just because he gets an offer from another team and we match doe snot mean he has to agree to it with us, he can not and then we get only our 3 years and he is 28-29 and in his prime and can go any place. If this is the game the FO is playing it is very dangerous and could back fire huge, not to mention the message to other potential FOs. AS to Rams we will see, a lot can happen in 2 years.

Maybe you don't understand the concept of the franchise tag. Even when it's not exclusive, the player cannot choose which team he wants to go to. He can negotiate with other teams. If he gets a team to make an offer, then it's up to the Seahawks to decide if they want to match that offer. If they do match the offer, they keep him, no matter what. If they don't, they get the two first round picks. At this point, he would have to play with us or hold out and not play at all. Those would be his only options.

It won't get to that point, but if it does, then we still hold the ace in the hole.

So find me a link that says a player has to sign a matched offer? So far I have not found it. I find it hard to believe a player can be forced to sign a deal, the NFLPA would not allow that.

For everyone's sake, click this link to read the CBA (specifically, page 50):
https://nfllabor.files.wordpress.com/20 ... 1-2020.pdf

You're welcome.