What if Geno regresses?

[Jerhawk]

Question: What if Geno Smith regresses this season?

How long or short of a leash are you willing to give him before we start clamoring for Lock or looking forward to next year's draft?

I know what some of you already thinking here. "Dude stfu we don't need that negativity around here go root for someone else." Or "Wow what happened to you Jerhawk? You're a terrible poster anymore. Geno isn't going to regress. Do you even watch football?"

For those willing to continue with this hypothetical discussion, I think it's definitely a possibility and I'm assuming, or hoping, that Carroll has a contingency plan in case Geno regresses this season.

And when I say regress, I mean reverting back to his old habits, turning the ball over and not making wise decisions with the ball. Taking a step back as a reliable QB.

Last season he went 30/11 for TD/INT ratio in the regular season, however 4 of those INTs were in December. Did teams finally get some tape on him and make proper adjustments? Time will tell. Of course I hope he shines and carries this team, but again I'm curious how long, or short, of a leash he will have with the coaching staff and fans IF he begins to perform poorly considering the talent around him on paper.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Great thread, this could get interesting. Let me go make up a batch

 

[Crizilla]

Don't think he will. Too many weapons on offense. The O-line would have to be a disaster if Geno regresses

 

[keasley45]

It's possible that he plateaus or takes a step back. Unlike some, I don't see his slump in the second half as being due to teams figuring HIM out as much as it was a case of them making us one dimensional and the playbook not being creative enough to overcome the challenge of having a crippled running game. And when I say crippled, I mean either by injuries in our backfield or the utter ineffectiveness of our interior line. If anyone has All22, I'd highly suggest watching how bad our G to G play was at times.

But the issue of injuries seems to be mitigated to a degree at least by virtue of the fact that we added two solid option via the draft to what is a deep RB room.

And

We fortified our interior line, which without a doubt will aid in run blocking and pass pro.

Yiu have to ask the question whether if last year, we'd had the pieces on the line and in the backfield that we do this year, how much better would Geno have been. I'd say.... MUCH. Well, at least there'd likely not have been the drop off in his play.

Add to that the fact that he will be better versed in the playbook and that Shane will without doubt have some new wrinkles to deploy the weapons we have, and I think whatever 'tape' advantage defenses got last year will have been to a degree, negated.

Remember that last year there was all the hand wringing about how Geno wiukd be as a starter when teams had the opportunity to prepare for him week in and week out as a starter. And last year, he was essentially coming off the bench, without the benefit of really having developed a relationship with Shane. I think he did pretty well.

I think with Geno, as with any okayer who goes from rags to riches the way he did, the challenge will be him managing ehatver ego he has, keeping his emotions in a positive frame (fiery is ok, but not so much so it becomes a negative influence), and nit getting over confident and distratcted from his primary goal... safe distribution of the ball, hitting the big plays whrn they are there, and winning as a team. If he does that... i think hes good.

If not, i think things could slowly spiral, because the media and folks in NFL circles will jump on the 'one hit wonder ' wagon, and we dont know how he'll hold up to that.

That also can affect his perception as a leader. If he begins to lose composure and snap, or take less than intelligent emotional actions with teammates because hes having problems shoukdering the stress, that coukd also derail his play and our success.

Im also a little concerned that he will be breaking pocket more this year and taking unnecessary hits. Scrambling is a valuable tool and hes shown he can do it well. But hes nit the biggest guy in the world and already has had one concussion with us on a hit while hanging in the pocket on a play. So all around pocket awareness ,to stay clean... that's another thing he needs to be aware of.

But... he has the tools around him that afford him the opportunity to play safely within the system. Fingers crossed.

 

[pittpnthrs]

Pete will ride with him. If it got really bad, a QB would be the first person chosen in next years draft.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I actually think Geno can regress a little this season, and the Hawk's offense will still be better.

IMO this might be the deepest most talented offensive roster and O-line since the Holmgren SB team. Maybe even more talented and deep.

We shouldn't need Geno to try to win games on his own like we did a bunch of times last year. O-line should be better, WR's, RB's and TE's are deep and talented.

So yeah, if Geno takes a step back? Shouldn't matter. Game manage away my friend, let the ballers ball.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Other teams adjusting to him is very likely to happen. But we may rely on the running game a little more than people think. And I'm good with that. The running game sets up the passing game. We need to see balance from this team imo.

 

[TheLegendOfBoom]

Even if Geno regresses this year, Seattle’s (Carroll’s system) is probably at the point where he can insert another player or even an overlooked vet (next year and draft a young QB) and still compete for division titles.

Seattle looks to be solid with a lot of the foundation and coaching staff able to win with functional pieces surrounding the QB, and in a system where they will not ask the QB to do too much.

Seattle should be solid even if Geno is not the starting QB for the start of the 2025 season (not likely IMO he will be).

 

[SoulfishHawk]

IF the defense can improve the run defense, it would be HUGE for this offense imo. Time of possession catches up to a defense. They need to get off the field a hell of a lot faster this season. Thus, getting the offense back on the field more often, and hopefully an offense that can eat up a lot of TOP.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Leash would depend entirely on the severity of the regression. If we're talking regression to, say, Daniel Jones level, I'd ride with him.

If the wheels really fell off, I think you give him some time to straighten it out. Depends on locker room factors. You can't bench Geno if your whole roster is still firmly behind him. That said, you can't leave him in until it starts facturing the locker room either.

 

[m0ng0]

I think they will ride it out unless he just completely stinks up the joint.

 

[onanygivensunday]

I don't see it happening.

My prediction... in 2023, Geno will surpass what he accomplished in 2022.

I'm going with 4500 passing yards, 34 TDs and 10 INTs... and another Pro Bowl year.

 

[far north]

If smith has a bad season they would probably be in a decent position to draft qb to come up with the young team.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Leash would depend entirely on the severity of the regression. If we're talking regression to, say, Daniel Jones level, I'd ride with him.

If the wheels really fell off, I think you give him some time to straighten it out. Depends on locker room factors. You can't bench Geno if your whole roster is still firmly behind him. That said, you can't leave him in until it starts facturing the locker room either.

I honestly don't see a scenario where the wheels completely fall off.

At no time watching Geno last season did I say to myself "man, he's REALLY playing over his head." He looked composed and had a firm grasp on the playbook and what was expected of him, and executed all these things to a Pro Bowl level. He read defenses, got the ball out on time and accurately.

It wasn't until Walker got hurt and the O-line has some pass protection issues that Geno pressed and regressed from his great 1st half of the year production.

So yeah, if the RB struggle and the O-line hasn't improved over last year? Sure, I could see the same level of play from Geno drop. But wheels fall off? Again, hard to imagine a scenario where that happens. Not with a 11 year vet who's shown he can handle running an offense efficiently, who now has a REALLY good supporting cast around him.

 

[94Smith]

I don't follow news about offensive lines (other than the 49ers), because frankly offensive lines are boring, but who is new this year on the Seahawks? What were the issues last year on the Seahawks line?

 

[rjdriver]

If he regresses....

It shows how smart the front office was in the structuring of his deal. We have a great group of young talent right now, so we can certainly go after a QB in the draft if need be.

We had an above average to elite QB for about a decade, so we are spoiled. Even if Geno statistically regresses a bit, I really doubt he will crap the bed this year. He will keep us competitive. Hopefully he polishes things up a bit, gets a bit more protection, and learns to utilize his new weapon at wideout. I think the odds are better that he improves rather than takes a step back.

Regardless, I'm sure the organization has contingency plans ready for whatever happens.

 

[AROS]

I think what we saw last season from Geno is pretty much what you will continue to get. I love his work ethic, humility, leadership, athleticism, decision making and accuracy. That doesn't suddenly disappear just because it's a new season and like Sgt. said, the offense surrounding him is the best we have seen in years.

Geno has a very long leash, even if the contract clauses give the team an out if they want to after this season. I just don't see it happening however. Hey may not make the Pro Bowl every year here on out but there's no reason to believe he can't be a Top 10 QB in the league consistently, especially with how the team is being built around him.

 

[olyfan63]

I don't follow news about offensive lines (other than the 49ers), because frankly offensive lines are boring, but who is new this year on the Seahawks? What were the issues last year on the Seahawks line?

Let's see... issues...
- Aaron Donald picking up our lightweight center and throwing him at the QB. OK, we won those Rams games, but still...
- Two Rookie tackles, who did about all you could ask from rookies, but still... Rookies.
- Raiders game, that one Maxx Crosby dude ate our OL for lunch and single-handedly changed the game. I'm not sure exactly what broke down.
- I know there's more, like iirc, Gabe Jackson being injured and/or ineffective. Anyone?

New:
- Rookie G Anthony Bradford and rookie C Olu Oluwatimi have a chance to start this year.
- Evan Brown, C, FA pickup from Detroit, 320 lbs, bigger and harder for Donald to throw at the QB

There is optimism that last year's rookie tackles, along with Damien Lewis and the new additions, will perform better as a unit, and that overall OL depth, Phil Haynes and others, will be better to withstand injuries.

 

[Ozzy]

Geno worries me more than most people on here but I think its going to be pretty tough to have a major regression because so many pieces are around him and I think Waldron is really starting to come into his own as well. I don't think we see first half Geno but I also don't think we see 2nd half Geno either. The offense should be really good even if Geno is in that 12-15 range.

 

[Hawk4life]

I'm not really worried about Geno regressing, my concern is having to rely on him to win. I hope the 3 RB's make that a moot point.