Expectations for the 2013 season?

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Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 1:52 am
  • Here are mine:

    #1: The Seahawks become a team known more for offense in 2013.

    Seattle's offense started the first half of last season well below average, yet were so hot in the 2nd half of the year that they ended up FO's #1 offense, even when counting the first half (it wasn't a weighted calculation, either). Seattle's redzone numbers got silly towards the end.

    I don't know if Percy Harvin will get a 1000 yards this season, but he's not here for that. He's here because Seattle's entire offense is built around the idea of giving defenses too much to defend. It's all about stretching defenses thin and attacking the weak spots that appear as a result. Seattle was already doing that magnificently without Harvin, and Harvin will add an extra dimension because of his big play ability and versatility. He'll make Tate, Rice, Miller, Lynch and Wilson better even when the ball doesn't go his way.

    Christine Michael will probably have about as much impact as a rookie Kendall Hunter did (5.2 YPC), but it's probably Luke Willson who will make the biggest impact outside of Harvin. Willson wasn't a prolific college TE, but he has size and speed at TE that only exists a few places in the league. And as far as I know, we've never seen a starting 251 pound TE that could run a 4.51 here before. He's going to also add a new dimension on offense.

    When I look at Seattle's offense, it's not really that they have the most elite collection of weapons ever assembled, it's just that they have a group of very good players that can all make defenders pay for not respecting them. And you can't cover every base. Not with just 11 defenders. Defenses will be stretched more than ever in 2013 when facing the Seahawks.

    I also think that Wilson elevated himself to an even higher level last season than what he was even at Wisconsin- and who's to say he's at his ceiling?

    Then there's also the fact that Seattle will be starting with the read option as a wrinkle in week 1. Last year, it wasn't introduced until there were just 5 regular season games left to play.

    And it's not like the Seahawks have a tough defensive schedule (outside the division) either.

    The Seahawks probably won't lead the NFL in yards next season, but they might lead the NFL in scoring and I'd actually be surprised if they didn't lead the NFL in offensive efficiency.

    #2: The defense might take a step back

    Antoine Winfield was, IMO, our best offseason addition that didn't involve draft picks. He's a difference maker. Bennett and Avril fit what Seattle does. Seattle added future defensive starters in the draft.

    That said, I see quite a bit of downside on defense. Bennett has the shoulder problem. Avril has a foot problem. Clemons blew out his ACL in January, plays defensive line, and is over 30. Winfield is 36, and last I checked, is not a cyborg, though Raul Ibanez might be. Irvin won't play until our 5th game, at which point he'll have question marks. Our linebackers are being moved around- some of them in ways that seem ill-advised. Will Chancellor be motivated now that he's been paid megabucks? (Actually, I think Chancellor will have a great season, but I think this is a valid concern). Will Bennett see enough reps at DE for his value to emerge? Will interior pass rush on 1st and 2nd downs remain a problem? (...Probably).

    Maybe our defense is AMAZING, it certainly could be if everything breaks right. But there is so much that could go wrong too.

    Another thing- last year's defense was built to play from behind. It wasn't built to hold leads. Pete tailored his Seahawks defenses to smoosh the strong side rushing attack, while often rushing just one pass rusher that was an honest threat. His secondaries played quite a bit of soft zone when holding leads. Seattle got a 4 and out against Tom Brady to win a game, but otherwise their ability to stop late game charges was disastrous last season, and I think that's on the coaching and scheme. The Seahawks are going to hold more leads than ever in 2013 because of their offense, and while that's obviously a good thing, it also means that our teams' defensive statistics will probably take a hit in the process.

    Even with all the talent Seattle has, I'd be a little surprised if they repeated at the #1 scoring defense. The only way I see it is if Dan Quinn and the new wrinkles he's installing prove to be a massive upgrade over what Bradley did for us the last few years.

    #3: The Seahawks probably won't win the division unless they sweep the 49ers.

    Seattle has five 10am starts to the 49ers two. Further, the Seahawks get their toughest out of conference games on the road (usually at 10am) whereas the 49ers get them at home. It's a huge advantage knowing that all you have to do on the road is beat easy teams, compared to your rival who has to beat the best away from home at 10am no less.

    The 49ers usually take care of business, and if they had a real weakness before, it was the erratic nature of Alex Smith. Kaepernick can be game planned by a good coach with a fast defense, but most teams have had a very hard time stopping him. Kaepernick's job is so freaking easy, and that ease has led to remarkable consistency given how undeveloped he still is. I think the 49ers will probably lose 1-2 games against teams not named the Seahawks. If Seattle splits the series, it probably won't be enough.

    #4: Russell Wilson will win NFL MVP, and maybe Superbowl XLVIII.

    Over his last 13 games, excluding the obvious outlier dropfest in SF where Wilson actually played very well, he had a total passer rating of 115. It would have been the 3rd best passer rating in NFL history had he done that all year. He also rushed for nearly a 900 yards per 16 games pace over his last 7 contests.

    Wilson will continue that extremely high level of play, now with even more weapons on offense and a full season of read option. It will be a season for the ages.

    #5: John Schneider will win executive of the year.

    It might be the dumbest award in sports, but you'd have to be pretty hopeless to not notice the impact PC/JS have had on the NFL landscape. The writers had an excuse in 2012 to be idiots, but I'm not sure they'll have one in 2013.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 3:12 am
  • 1. I expect the offense to be simply overwhelming to defenses. Defending the read-option against a stacked backfield, a receiving corps that was already efficient and added a nightmare to match up with in PH, not to mention RWs talent, motor, etc, will just not be possible UNLESS our play calling remains as vanilla as it was at times last season. Can talk about defenses "figuring out" the read-option, but defense is a game of superior numbers. Unless they know what play call is coming there's just no way to shut it down for long considering they can't maintain superior numbers against both the pass and the run simultaneously.

    2. The defense will take a hit, but not a huge one, I expect a top ten defense yardage wise. I do expect the offense to sustain more and more drives, keep our defense fresher, and force teams to abandon the run early and pass to win. The area I want to see improve however, is sacks and 3rd down efficiency. If those numbers improve dramatically, it would sure offset losing the top scoring/4th? in yardage defense for me.

    3. We need to win every divisional match up, period. Considering our 10 am starts, even if the 9ers descend into mediocrity, the Rams will probably surprise and challenge us for the title late in the season. Call me silly, but I considered the Rams more deadly then the 49ers even last season just not near as consistent. The 9ers may have given up once we went up 21-0 in the Clink, but I don't think the Rams would so obviously quit if we went up 42-0 on them, even in the Clink.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 3:20 am
  • kearly wrote:The Seahawks probably won't lead the NFL in yards next season, but they might lead the NFL in scoring and I'd actually be surprised if they didn't lead the NFL in offensive efficiency.

    I'd like to point out that our special teams play a big role in this. We often start drives at the 25, 30, 35, 40, etc. yard lines. Consistently having a shorter field to travel down to reach the end zone also plays a big role in total yardage, which is just another reason why total yards is mostly a dumb statistic to look at for anything. I wish the NFL.com site would stop using total yards to rank offenses and defenses with.

    Also, I think with our offense spelling our defense a lot more this year, our defense will be able to mask its deficiencies more in 2013. I expect the Seahawks defense to be #1 in scoring again; but your points are all valid, I just think they won't hurt us much.

    Great stuff as usual, Kearly.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 3:38 am
  • Great points all round.

    One thing I think will happen is Zach Miller's catches will increase noticeably. He was developing a great rapport with Wilson towards the end of last season and, with all the other threats on this offense, D coordinators are going to have to let him go in order to shut down other avenues.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 4:16 am
  • I disagree our defense is built to play from behind. It's at its best at the two extremes, behind by 10 or up by 10, because we have extraordinary personnel for defending the run, and extraordinary personnel for defending the pass, but not at the same time
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 4:43 am
  • I shall be short and sweet in my response given that's exactly what I am.....

    1. Yup
    2. Maybe, not ready to concede that our new scheme will fail.
    3. Disagree...Superbowl loser vs. the Rams and you're talking Wilson against Bradford no sneaky this time (remember I live in Missouri I know way more about the Rams than I care to, seriously can you help me move? :)).
    4. Yup
    5. Yup

    You did forget point 6....we're going to win that game in New York on February 2nd against Denver if Peyton sacks up and doesn't do his usual playoff collapse if not, welcome a rematch with Houston.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 5:05 am
  • My expectations. Seahawks are not going to be the underdogs in any of the games they play this year. Can they handle it?

    Week 1. Tough game at Carolina. Looking at their schedule if they don't start out with a win they are probably going to crumble. Basically the coach knows that his job is riding on this game.

    Week 2. San Francisco has been thinking about coming back and getting revenge all summer. Coach H is going to have them fine tuned to our weaknesses and it is going to be a fight. Even if they loose expect other teams to get a lot of info on us.

    Week 4. Another 10am (texas time) game against a tough tough team. They are going to be pissed if we go to their house and they are the underdogs.

    If we are going to make it unscathed Kearly has to be way off on his defense being weaker prediction. My concern is that he is not usually wrong
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 5:14 am
  • seahawksTopGear wrote:Basically the coach knows that his job is riding on this game.

    Give me a break. Not even close. We would have to go like 1-15 this year for Carroll to have a chance at losing his job.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 5:17 am
  • Well he's flat wrong this time. He isn't Jesus and he's going to find that fact out really quick it seems. I figure 3-1 in our first 4 is quite reasonable or do you think Cam "I am a fan of the Falcons except for 2 games" actually has his mentality straight? Against Russell Wilson? Come again.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 5:27 am
  • RolandDeschain wrote:
    seahawksTopGear wrote:Basically the coach knows that his job is riding on this game.

    Give me a break. Not even close. We would have to go like 1-15 this year for Carroll to have a chance at losing his job.

    More like 0-16. I smell troll......
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 5:44 am
  • I am not sold on the D-Line until I see a pass rush.

    Quinn is a new D coordinator, and is an X factor. All of those injuries listed is a major concern.

    Winfield should shore up the slot position nicely, and Wagner having that good first year is great for the LB corps.

    Offense has the benefit of some new weapons and the wraps will be off of our QB from the get-go. The rushing attack is going to be hard to stop if the O-line continues to play well.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 6:03 am
  • I'm going to consider this my last-ditch attempt to clue everybody in on this 10am start thing that has everybody's panties in a wad:

    1.) With the exception of the Houston game which kicks off at noon, all of the games being referred to as "10am starts" all begin at 1:00pm local time. The only place on this earth that the game kicks off at 10:00am is within the pacific time zone.

    2.) Anybody looking at statistics regarding the success or failure of the Seahawks winning games beginning at that particular time, need not look any further than:
    A.) These games all were played by less-than-stellar Seahawks teams of the past.
    B.) These games occurred after relatively long airplane flights too close to game time.
    C.) These games were played in situations where the crowd noise occurred during offense.

    3.) In the age of Pete Carroll and John Schneider, this Seahawks team will be flying out on Friday instead of Saturday. By game-time this year, the team will have slept in those timezones a total of twice before the ball leaves the tee.

    For the love of everything sacred, the only folks that will not be ready to go for those games will be the groggy people of the west coast who went out partying the night before. This Seahawks squad, the strength and contitioning staff, and the coaches, are very aware of what is at stake for away games played such a long distance from home. Everything that can be done to insure every player is dialed in to smash heads will be done.

    So, quit whining about not being able to sleep in, don't assume that the team has the same hangover you have, and stop calling them 10:00am starts. They are simply away games in hostile territory, and absolutely nothing else.

    That is all.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 6:07 am
  • Houston, you damn near made me cry with the beauty of that post. The whole 10am thing is almost entirely psychosomatic. You can't get real freaking jet lag travelling within the continental United States. (If you claim you have, see the second sentence of this reply.) We are a tough, talented team and will play like one no matter what time we start at.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 6:14 am
  • http://www.sportshoopla.com/forums/san- ... rence.html

    It is a real thing.. teams from the west coast playing on the East Coast are 41-98 in the past 10 years. Seattle is 7-20 from 2002-2011. That includes Seahawks teams that made the playoffs in 6 out of those 10 years and were able to compile a 7-20 record when playing on east coast time.

    I realize some of this skewed by the fact that the Niners, Cards, Raiders were not exactly stellar teams during that stretch, but Seattle and the Chargers were perennial playoff teams.

    The road wins during that span:

    2002- ATL
    2003- None
    2004- Tampa (also beat NO, but I believe they are central time)
    2005- only games in the EST were losses at JAC and WSH early in the season
    2006- None
    2007- Philly
    2008- none
    2009- none
    2010- Chicago
    2011- Chicago, NYG

    I am missing one game, but I am thinking it is the MNF game in Philly (2005) that they could be counting w/o looking at the time the game was played
    Last edited by Barthawk on Wed Jul 17, 2013 6:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 6:17 am
  • KCHawkGirl wrote:
    RolandDeschain wrote:
    seahawksTopGear wrote:Basically the coach knows that his job is riding on this game.

    Give me a break. Not even close. We would have to go like 1-15 this year for Carroll to have a chance at losing his job.

    More like 0-16. I smell troll......


    Not positive, but I read it as him talking about Carolina crumbling and their coach being on the hot seat though I am not sure I agree w/ either sentiment 100%. Maybe the coach on hot seat part a bit buy not after 1 game.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 6:29 am
  • Barthawk wrote:http://www.sportshoopla.com/forums/san-francisco-49ers/78312-east-coast-west-coast-does-really-make-difference.html

    It is a real thing.. teams from the west coast playing on the East Coast are 41-98 in the past 10 years. Seattle is 7-20 from 2002-2011. That includes Seahawks teams that made the playoffs in 6 out of those 10 years and were able to compile a 7-20 record when playing on east coast time.

    I realize some of this skewed by the fact that the Niners, Cards, Raiders were not exactly stellar teams during that stretch, but Seattle and the Chargers were perennial playoff teams.

    The road wins during that span:

    2002- ATL
    2003- None
    2004- Tampa (also beat NO, but I believe they are central time)
    2005- only games in the EST were losses at JAC and WSH early in the season
    2006- None
    2007- Philly
    2008- none
    2009- none
    2010- Chicago
    2011- Chicago, NYG

    I am missing one game, but I am thinking it is the MNF game in Philly (2005) that they could be counting w/o looking at the time the game was played


    The Seahawks and Chargers in that time frame were good, but not really great teams, frankly.

    Has anyone gone back and looked beyond the past decade? How did the late 80s/early 90s San Francisco 49ers do on the East Coast, for example? How about those late 70's/early 80's Raiders teams? I want to know how talented, top-of-the-league teams performed under those same constraints. Because I think this Seahawks team will be of that quality, not of the 9-7, winning a division title in part because all the other teams in the NFCW are awful quality.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 6:32 am
  • Barthawk wrote:http://www.sportshoopla.com/forums/san-francisco-49ers/78312-east-coast-west-coast-does-really-make-difference.html

    It is a real thing.. teams from the west coast playing on the East Coast are 41-98 in the past 10 years. Seattle is 7-20 from 2002-2011. That includes Seahawks teams that made the playoffs in 6 out of those 10 years and were able to compile a 7-20 record when playing on east coast time.

    I realize some of this skewed by the fact that the Niners, Cards, Raiders were not exactly stellar teams during that stretch, but Seattle and the Chargers were perennial playoff teams.


    Additionally, I believe the style of play factors into that. Teams whose success is largely predicated on precision, timing and tempo seem to be more affected than teams who thrive in playing physically.

    In keeping with the thread however, I'd agree that statistically, Seattle will take a step back. Not out of the top 5. But when you're the top scoring defense and top 4 in yards allowed, it's hard to go anywhere but backward.

    Still, I expect we'll score more to start games. Seattle is at it's best when we can field specialist packages on the field. We don't have many everydown players good against both the run and the pass. I have to wonder if we're going to protect the defense more this year by creating scenarios where the defense can cheat personnel wise.

    I see Winfield as a huge question mark. It's entirely age driven. How effective will he be when he does lose a step? At this age, that loss will seemingly come overnight. Like an NBA guard who goes from 15 pts/gm to 4pts/gm in the span of one offseason.

    Despite the injury, I see Bennett as being the key signing. He's probably as close to Mebane as an every down player that we have in the DL group. I expect him to take up a lot of the slack when Clemons is out/ineffective. His versatility and ability to play DT/DE is going to be made use of.

    From the rookies, I don't know what to expect from Hill. I want to expect a lot. I'll be pleased if he's league average because we could use some of that in our base personnel package. If he's more than that, it'll be another case of this FO creating value where it doesn't appear to exist.

    Willson is the latest in a series of attempts to introduce a joker TE. Here's to hoping he keeps us from drafting a TE in round 1 next year.

    I will be most interested in watching Williams develop at Bryant's spot. Bryant, despite his total absence of pass rush, has shown by his absence in 2 of the last three years -- that the two gap 5 tech is a cornerstone role for this defense. When he's been out due to injury or when he's playing less effectively through injury -- our defense suffered tremendously. Williams I believe is Bryant's successor. I'll be looking to see glimpses of that this year. I'm half expecting him to play significant snaps there as I don't harbor much expectation that Bryant will have an injury free campaign.

    Defensively, I believe we'll try to force the issue more and expose our secondary to a higher degree. I don't think our pass rush with the front four will be sufficient, or even as tepid as it was last year. I don't expect Clemons to start on opening week and I don't expect him to be effective until halfway through the season. If he does aggravate his knee in the same predictable way that Carpenter did, it will be disastrous for our playoff hopes. I don't see 11 wins if we don't have Clemons healthy for a good portion of the year. And if the same fate befalls Clemons, I think quite rightly Pete is going to take very justified criticism for that.

    I want to like the Avril signing. But I'm very much in a prove it mindset. I want to see what he does without Suh commanding double teams next to him. By accounts of Lions fans, he pretty much sounds exactly like Bruce Irvin.

    Offensively, I really hope to see Carpenter have an injury free season. I feel as strongly about Carp at LG as I did about Okung at LT when he was being criticized for being injury prone and not living up to his draft pick. Okung you could see was quality and that his injuries were pretty fluke circumstances. With Carpenter, I see the same quality. And I think he had one knee injury that was significantly mismanaged by the club. I am eager to see him have a good stretch of availability. I see he has quality. And putting that next to Okung and Unger would elevate our offensive productivity tremendously.

    Sweezy I have extremely high hopes for. I can't wait to see what kind of improvement he can make in year 2 of his conversion.

    Outside of Harvin's influence -- I'm really interested in watching Turbin this year. It took Lynch time to really get how the scheme works. I'd like to see Turbin's efficiency in the system in his second year. I think more than Michael, Turbin is going to be a key contributor this year. Especially since he's quite good at pass pro and receiving. He should have a lot of opportunities to be in the game. Lynch needs someone to help shoulder the load and the team needs that timeshare back to be highly effective and well rounded.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 6:34 am
  • Let's be realistic, the Seahawks were only a really good team for about two seasons during the Holmgren era. You're far more likely to lose on the road than at home no matter what. When teams have spent 4+ days at an east coast location getting used to the time zone change, it still hasn't mattered. http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/s ... id=3632212

    You didn't see the 49ers of the 80s and early 90s losing a bunch of road games. Here, I took the liberty of checking. Here are how many road and home losses the 49ers had from 1983 through 1993.

    1983: 2 road losses, 4 home
    1984: 0 road losses, 1 home
    1985: 3 road losses, 3 home
    1986: 3 road losses, 2 home
    1987: 1 road loss, 1 home
    1988: 2 road losses, 4 home
    1989: 0 road losses, 2 home
    1990: 0 road losses, 2 home
    1991: 5 road losses, 1 home
    1992: 1 road loss, 1 home
    1993: 4 road, 2 home

    Total: 21 road losses, 23 home losses. For an 11-year period, the 49ers lost more at home than they did on the road in the regular season.

    Jet lag, my arse. :)
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 6:57 am
  • Total and complete domination that ends with Paul
    Allen holding up the Lombardi Trophy, I honestly feel this way, and have never felt that way about any Seattle team.

    They no longer have the "weak link" Gus Bradley and his passive weak zone schemes, and replaced him with a d-coord that vows to be aggressive.

    They've addressed their weeknesses thru the draft, trades, and FA.

    They've added weapons to an already potent offense.

    Russell Wilson!

    Seattle exposed SF and Kraepernick that good teams will exploit that!
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 7:15 am
  • KCHawkGirl wrote:
    RolandDeschain wrote:
    seahawksTopGear wrote:Basically the coach knows that his job is riding on this game.

    Give me a break. Not even close. We would have to go like 1-15 this year for Carroll to have a chance at losing his job.

    More like 0-16. I smell troll......


    A million apologies. I meant Ron Rivera's job is at stake this season with the Panthers. If he cant win the high profile games at home and build momentum he is not going to playoffs this year and wont be back.

    What I am trying to say is that allthough we are a much better team than Carolina they have a lot at stake on this game. It does not help that it is at ten in the morning on the road
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 7:18 am
  • Point #1: Totally agree about the offense.

    Point #2: I think the defense holds steady this year. That might not be enough to take the #1 scoring position again, but then again, who's going to take the crown from us? See Point 3

    Point #3: The 49ers defense has a far greater chance of regressing than we do. While Kaepernick should do enough to keep their defense off the field, they're also going to be playing a lot of slim margin games and frankly, their defense trended downwards last season, and unless their draft picks pan out huge, they got weaker in the secondary which was already 'deficient'. If Seattle is going to be known for offense, that's going to go double for the 49ers, but I think they'll end up like the Packers. It's all on the QB.

    Point #4: Wilson isn't far enough along in the public eye to win MVP. He'll probably be worthy of consideration, and he probably should win it, but if Peyton Manning or Tom Brady have good seasons again, they'll get the nod by default. It's stupid, but the sportswriters are stupid. However, Super Bowl MVP is definitely in the cards.

    Point #5: The sportswriters will also probably give the nod to someone else over Schneider. Again, because they're stupid. It won't matter. Seattle extended Schneider, and he's primed for a dynastic run which is more important.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 7:27 am
  • RolandDeschain wrote:You didn't see the 49ers of the 80s and early 90s losing a bunch of road games.


    These teams were an outlier. When you have multiple Hall of Fame players all playing in their primes -- along with a generous helping of marginal pro bowl mates -- you're going to be successful anywhere. Those teams were great defensively. That gets lost in the WCO/finesse legacy. But those teams also dominated with the run and by being a top 5 defense year in and year out.

    If anything, adding the niners of that era only supports the notion that teams that can play physical and tough tend to buck the 10am start trend. You don't need to be as precise and finely tuned to physically maul your opponent.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 7:39 am
  • Attyla the Hawk wrote:These teams were an outlier.


    Fine. Go look up the road/home loss numbers for some east coast team that was mediocre for a long period of time, and let's see if there is a clearly definable trend. FYI, Football Outsiders determined that almost every NFL team has an 8.5% home advantage, so it would have to be a swing noticeably larger than that for it to be an outlier potentially attributable to time zone change/jet lag.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 8:01 am
  • Attyla the Hawk wrote: Additionally, I believe the style of play factors into that. Teams whose success is largely predicated on precision, timing and tempo seem to be more affected than teams who thrive in playing physically.


    I agree with this thought. This team is light years ahead of past teams in terms of style of play. No more finesse, all kick-ass fueled by urine and sour wine.

    I think folks here hung up on these long-distance road games in the early timeslot need to realize, also, that three hours later in the day might be counterproductive to a team that thrives on physicality. Reason? Let's say that you are a go-get-'em type, like an Earl Thomas, who is literally chomping at the bit to get on the field and tackle somebody. You are going to be pacing around in a froth for an extra three hours when you could be using that energy against the opponent in the now. How much energy is expelled with another three hours of waiting? I guarantee you Earl is up at about 6:00am already preparing himself to play.

    I'll be the first to admit that I am by no means an expert on sports science or the physiology of an athlete's body. I can only speak from experience, and say that whenever I look back at my most physically productive sector of time within a given work day, the mid-day time-slot finds me getting the most stuff done in an efficient manner and with the least amount fatigue slowing me down. In the late afternoon (and especially after lunch) I want to take a nap. Sure, I'm pushing 50, but this has been true since my early 20's. I've always been a full-throttle guy who gets stuff done early then hits cruise control in the heat of the afternoon. I say the players are the same way or they don't make this team in the first place. It doesn't take me the better part of a day to get ready for anything and I doubt PC and JS will tolerate a guy who needs to warm his motor up for 7 hours before selecting "D" on the shifter.

    Again, I think the real issue this team faces on the road is at what point the crowd noise is heard, and that is about it. With big Russ calling the signals, we're good. As Kip eluded to, this offense will have ZERO trouble operating this year. And the defense? Well, it'll be all quiet out on those fields enabling much better communication.

    In fact, I'm going on record right now; the defense will play better on the road than they will at home.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 8:05 am
  • Sarlacc83 wrote:Point #1: Totally agree about the offense.

    Point #2: I think the defense holds steady this year. That might not be enough to take the #1 scoring position again, but then again, who's going to take the crown from us? See Point 3

    Point #3: The 49ers defense has a far greater chance of regressing than we do. While Kaepernick should do enough to keep their defense off the field, they're also going to be playing a lot of slim margin games and frankly, their defense trended downwards last season, and unless their draft picks pan out huge, they got weaker in the secondary which was already 'deficient'. If Seattle is going to be known for offense, that's going to go double for the 49ers, but I think they'll end up like the Packers. It's all on the QB.

    Point #4: Wilson isn't far enough along in the public eye to win MVP. He'll probably be worthy of consideration, and he probably should win it, but if Peyton Manning or Tom Brady have good seasons again, they'll get the nod by default. It's stupid, but the sportswriters are stupid. However, Super Bowl MVP is definitely in the cards.

    Point #5: The sportswriters will also probably give the nod to someone else over Schneider. Again, because they're stupid. It won't matter. Seattle extended Schneider, and he's primed for a dynastic run which is more important.


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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 10:27 am
  • kearly wrote:When I look at Seattle's offense, it's not really that they have the most elite collection of weapons ever assembled, it's just that they have a group of very good players that can all make defenders pay for not respecting them. And you can't cover every base. Not with just 11 defenders. Defenses will be stretched more than ever in 2013 when facing the Seahawks.


    This reminds me of the Herb Brooks quote from Miracle:

    "I'm not looking for the best players... I'm looking for the right ones."

    For our offense, the collection of receivers and RBs is a formidable team, though Harvin and Lynch may be the only perennial probowlers talent-wise at this point (we've yet to see what Michael brings, and to what degree Tate steps up).
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 10:31 am
  • Here are mine:

    1st) Top 5 Offense and Defense in the NFL.
    2nd) Lead the league in Rushing.
    3rd) Win at least 6 games on the road.
    4th) Win the division.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 10:41 am
  • At least a 5-3 road record. If we can get that on the road, I would be ecstatic. No more "Cant win on the Road" speeches.

    I think every road game for every team is tough. On our schedule, SF, HOU, ATL, and even NY are all very feasible losses. If we snatch one of those, Ill be happy. Hell, even CAR is a tough one, especially for a season opener on the road. But if we can manage to put away AZ, ST.L, IND (like we should) and grab two more wins out of the other 5, I will be so so happy.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 11:56 am
  • I'm not going line item by line item, but this is what I see happening for the most part.

    Offense, if and big if the line holds up and improves we are finally at the stage of USC as far as how we run the offense. Big depth at RB, a stable of receivers, they don't have to be all pro just be able to catch the ball and be hard to defend. We have height, speed, versatility, RAC and toughness. We have type player in Harvin that can line up anywhere, possession guys in Baldwin and Tate, Rice for the height and down feild as well as Harvin. Miller to split the seams and under routes, Willson if he pans out a a tall end zone threat that may also be a sort of Mile Williams guy on the sidelines.

    It will be more of we don't need to trick you or anything, here is whats coming now try to stop it type offense with a master of orchestration conducting it in Russell Wilson.

    On defense we have attitude, physical presence, and a lot of the body types we have been trying to assemble for a long time. I think if the offense generates points quickly we may see a very aggressive defense, not the bend but don't break attitude of the past, not the play prevent defense that costs us wins. I think with Quinn especially we become rabid dogs and take a few chances at making pics and creating even more turnovers, blitzing on first down when the other team is behind stuff, rotating coverage to make things look like a miss match and have guys go for pick offs. The kind of things that rip a opponents heart out and then add insult to injury as they see you eat that same heart.

    Thats what I see us trying to do, it all adds up to controlling our own destiny and not giving anything back or leaving any doubt as to who wins in any games we play.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 12:40 pm
  • The Seahawks actually have a really good chance to put the 10am problem behind them in 2013, since the early start / body clock issue typically effects defense much more than offense. If Seattle is the kind of team I think they'll be, where they are being carried more by their offense (similar to the Patriots), then I could see them doing much better in 10am starts. If Seattle went 5-0 in 10am starts, I wouldn't be shocked, because that's how good their offense can be.

    That said, the 10am disadvantage is not a secret and it's not subtle. Athletic performance peaks around 4pm, and that's not something that gets reset for timezone change in 24 or 48 hours. If anyone thinks we lose the Atlanta game if it starts at 1pm Pacific, I think you're nuts. The first half of that game screamed body clock issues. The 49ers had the same problem the next week (though their game started at 11am). Of course, no one is saying that 10am start = automatic loss. It's just an extra disadvantage to deal with, and it will probably turn one or two close wins into close losses next season.

    Seattle's winning percentage in 10am Pacific starts under Pete Carroll is close to the 10 year NFL average cited by Barthawk. Maybe Pete builds a team so good on offense that he can be an exception this year, but the proof is in the pudding.

    As far as the Rams, why should we be worried about them? They are not a 10 win team. They are like Minnesota without AP. As long as Bradford is there, they will be mediocre. They remind me a lot of the John Friesz-era Seahawks. They are more of a pest than a good team, IMO.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 1:13 pm
  • 10am start times matter. The evidence is ridiculously large. I've always been most likely to PR on my lifts in the afternoon, but that's just an anecdote. Research-wise, there are numerous studies demonstrating that the afternoon is when the human body reaches peak strength and coordination, as much as a 5-7% increase over the morning. That's like playing against a team on steroids.

    Aside from the physiological data, the empirical data is hard to ignore:

    Sando wrote:In the Seahawks' case, they've been outscored by 4.6 points per game in the first halves of 10 a.m. PT kickoffs since 2001, according to ESPN Stats & Information. The deficit was 2.1 points per game in first halves of road games kicking off between 1 p.m. PT and 1:25 p.m. PT.


    [source: http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/ ... r-seahawks ]
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 1:21 pm
  • Formido, psychosomatic effects are still effects, even if they are fake; just like placebos in medicine can still actually help in some things.

    That doesn't prove legitimacy, though.

    Also, the Seahawks won 35.8% of their 10am games compared to 38.8% of 1pm road games. That's a rather small statistical deviation.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 1:25 pm
  • kearly wrote:As far as the Rams, why should we be worried about them? They are not a 10 win team. They are like Minnesota without AP. As long as Bradford is there, they will be mediocre. They remind me a lot of the John Friesz-era Seahawks. They are more of a pest than a good team, IMO.


    That's the way I feel about the Rams, of course, feel free to disagree. Maybe the Seahawk rise last year looked clear to us, but for the rest of the league we were supposed to be an easy out. Only takes a few players to finally "get it" to pull off a surprising season. I used to hold pre-Harbaugh Alex Smith in lower regard then I do Sam Bradford at this moment.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 1:41 pm
  • 1. 12+ wins
    2. NFCW Champs
    3. 5-1 or 6-0 division record.
    4. Superbowl appearance.
    5. 30+ TDs, less than 10 INTs for Wilson.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 1:42 pm
  • kearly wrote:As far as the Rams, why should we be worried about them? They are not a 10 win team. They are like Minnesota without AP. As long as Bradford is there, they will be mediocre. They remind me a lot of the John Friesz-era Seahawks. They are more of a pest than a good team, IMO.


    Their defensive line is worth about six wins all by itself. If Bradford can simply not cause any more losses than he causes wins, an improved secondary and a good #1 receiver could push them into 9-10 win territory.

    You might think I'm being facetious, but I'm not.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 1:43 pm
  • RolandDeschain wrote:Formido, psychosomatic effects are still effects, even if they are fake; just like placebos in medicine can still actually help in some things.

    That doesn't prove legitimacy, though.

    Also, the Seahawks won 35.8% of their 10am games compared to 38.8% of 1pm road games. That's a rather small statistical deviation.


    Your bodies thermogenic peak has nothing to do with psychosomatics. Thats proven.

    Sando also had another article that took all the west coast teams, SEA, SF, OAK, SD, AZ and ran the data. It showed pretty well how teams traveling to the east coast and playing in 10am games were at a huge disadvantage compared to any other start time.

    No one is arguing that teams CANT win at 10am from the west. But the disadvantage is documented quite well.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 2:09 pm
  • Dude, I just pointed out from your own Sando link that the difference in losses at 10am starts compared to 1am starts is exactly 3.0%. That is a very minor deviation. What kind of crack are you smoking?

    Cartire wrote:Your bodies thermogenic peak has nothing to do with psychosomatics. Thats proven.

    Uh, no. Find me some evidence that this would be practically the only physically exempt thing in the human body that CANNOT be influenced by the subconscious mind. Our minds can change virtually anything in our body, under the right circumstances; like scars fading and appearing, and eye color changing (in seconds) on someone with dissociative identity disorder when they switch personalities, in some very rare cases.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 2:13 pm
  • If our offense is as efficient this year as it was the second half of last year I have a hard time seeing our defense regressing. Opposing teams will have fewer opportunities to score and or D will be more rested. On top of that, the bigger lead we have the more opponents will pass, likely resulting in more turnovers.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 2:15 pm
  • RolandDeschain wrote:Dude, I just pointed out from your own Sando link that the difference in losses at 10am starts compared to 1am starts is exactly 3.0%. That is a very minor deviation. What kind of crack are you smoking?



    not my link buddy. But I was talking about west coast teams as a whole since were talking about west coast to east coast 10 am games. You have to include all of them and not just Seattle or else your not getting all the stats.

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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 2:21 pm
  • Do you even know how to do basic math? Ok, on that pic you just posted, San Diego has a BETTER winning percentage at 10am than they do at 1pm. 46.9% of 10am games were wins, compared to 45.7% of 1pm games being wins. SF and Oakland are more serious outliers, but a tiny difference for the Seahawks and the Chargers winning MORE at 10am pretty much blow it right out of the water as far as "proof" goes.

    SF: 28.3% at 10am, 52.6% at 1pm.
    Oakland: 27.7% at 10am, 37.0% at 1pm.
    Arizona: 25.8% at 10am, 32.2% at 1pm.

    Notice the only 3 that had noticeable discrepancies are also teams that sucked for almost every single one of the years in question, too.

    Believe what you want.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 2:53 pm
  • RolandDeschain wrote:Do you even know how to do basic math? Ok, on that pic you just posted, San Diego has a BETTER winning percentage at 10am than they do at 1pm. 46.9% of 10am games were wins, compared to 45.7% of 1pm games being wins. SF and Oakland are more serious outliers, but a tiny difference for the Seahawks and the Chargers winning MORE at 10am pretty much blow it right out of the water as far as "proof" goes.

    SF: 28.3% at 10am, 52.6% at 1pm.
    Oakland: 27.7% at 10am, 37.0% at 1pm.
    Arizona: 25.8% at 10am, 32.2% at 1pm.

    Notice the only 3 that had noticeable discrepancies are also teams that sucked for almost every single one of the years in question, too.

    Believe what you want.


    Man, ranking on my math when i Clearly said all West teams as a whole. Pretty sure I didnt say anything about just SD.

    And what does a team being horrible have to do with more losses at 10am vs less losses at 1pm. Its the same team both times, right.
    hawksincebirth wrote:So Russell has leverage but marshawn doesn't ? I thought its next man up. Hey we got t jack and bj Daniels right ??
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 2:59 pm
  • my expectations for 2013 are a combination of two slogans - "WIN FOREVER" and "EARN EVERYTHING".

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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 2:59 pm
  • If your team sucks, small problems of all kinds tend to be exacerbated. If your team is elite, small problems tend to be largely irrelevant. Ignore the correlation as you wish.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 3:13 pm
  • I think we run the ball a lot and lead the league in rushing. We have returning starters across the offensive line and more weapons in the backfield than ever.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 3:19 pm
  • fenderbender123 wrote:We have returning starters across the offensive line


    I'd say that's only a good thing for half of the O-line, lol. I really hope Moffitt comes back, and Carp stays healthy and playing @ guard.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 4:18 pm
  • RolandDeschain wrote:If your team sucks, small problems of all kinds tend to be exacerbated. If your team is elite, small problems tend to be largely irrelevant. Ignore the correlation as you wish.


    San Francisco was arguably the most complete team in the NFL last year, out of the AFC top 4, Denver was the only team that could have edged them out of being favored in the Superbowl. Despite staying on the East Coast the whole week when they had 2 east coast road games, they were 1-2 when playing at 10 AM Pacific, their lone victory coming against the disaster that was the Jets. Flexing bailed them out of a few 10 am matchups, but by the time we can get flexed out of a 10 AM game this year, we will have already played our toughest early matchups.

    The only reason that is irrelevant is because of the smaller sample size of 10 AM Pacific games they participated in. Win just one of our 10 AM defensive meltdowns vs the Lions or the Dolphins, and Seattle would have won the #2 seed (imagine the exponential increase in Packer hate!).

    I don't write off those 5 future Seahawk games as an 0-5 failure, but they are concerning no matter how dominant I think our 2013 team will be. Drop a few too many and SF can cupcake their way to a division title once again by virtue of their big market must succeed scheduling (not being sarcastic here either- just look at the entitlement syndrome Packer trolls are infected with).
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 4:20 pm
  • Seahawks are a solid team on both sides of the ball. Good lines. Good RB. Very good CB's. QB was a pleasant surprise last season.

    But there is one thing to remember. History has shown that defenses eventually find a way to slow down the latest fad when it comes to offenses. The running QB running a read option seems to be the flavor of the month. What would happen if defenses figure out ways to keep Russell Wilson, Colin Kapernick, RGIII and other running QB's in the pocket? Making them beat them with their arms and not their legs? Will they become proficient pocket passers?

    Look at the final 4 teams last year. 3 of the 4 teams had QB's who are primarily pocket passers. I don't think thats a coincidence. While its nice to have a guy who can escape the pass rush, its even better to have a guy who can sit there, read defenses, make good decisions and make accurate throws. Why are the Patriots always a playoff team? It hasn't been their defense lately. Why did the Broncos all of a sudden become a superbowl contender? Why did Joe Flacco lead his team to a championship? Good pocket passers, thats why.

    If defenses make Wilson stay in the pocket, can he succeed? Thats a question that remains to be seen.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 4:27 pm
  • Snackdaddy, RW is already a proficient pocket passer. The read option wasn't a main staple of our offense, it was a sparingly used change up to our base offense.

    The Patriots are always in it because their division had been a joke for a decade, and because Tom Brady.

    The Broncos got good because the rest of their team was actually solid in spite of Tim Tebow.

    Good QBs are essential, I agree. But to say RW hasn't shown he can throw from the pocket shows how little you've actually seen him play.
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 4:41 pm
  • snackdaddy wrote:Look at the final 4 teams last year. 3 of the 4 teams had QB's who are primarily pocket passers. I don't think thats a coincidence. While its nice to have a guy who can escape the pass rush, its even better to have a guy who can sit there, read defenses, make good decisions and make accurate throws. Why are the Patriots always a playoff team? It hasn't been their defense lately. Why did the Broncos all of a sudden become a superbowl contender? Why did Joe Flacco lead his team to a championship? Good pocket passers, thats why.

    If defenses make Wilson stay in the pocket, can he succeed? Thats a question that remains to be seen.


    "Remains to be seen"? You haven't been paying attention to Wilson this past year, then. :177692:

    Yes, he can escape pressure. But his pocket passer rating is near the top in the league over the entire season. How much more "seeing" would you need to be convinced the guy can get it done? SMH...
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Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
Wed Jul 17, 2013 4:42 pm
  • SacHawk2.0 wrote:Snackdaddy, RW is already a proficient pocket passer. The read option wasn't a main staple of our offense, it was a sparingly used change up to our base offense.

    The Patriots are always in it because their division had been a joke for a decade, and because Tom Brady.

    The Broncos got good because the rest of their team was actually solid in spite of Tim Tebow.

    Good QBs are essential, I agree. But to say RW hasn't shown he can throw from the pocket shows how little you've actually seen him play.


    Sorry , Sac, should have read your post first, and just let you state the obvious.
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