Geno Isn't the Guy. Sad to Say (Main)

[Lagartixa]

Do you have a link to that Giant's stat? I can't find it on the website.

It's not from PFF. He has failed to understand the difference between two different stats created by Scott Kacsmar, who was writing for Pro-Football Reference at the time and has nothing to do with PFF. See this page for info.

Smith and the Seahawks, according to Kacsmar's definition from 2009, had a game-winning drive in the Giants game last year. The game was tied in the fourth quarter, and then Smith led the offense on a TD drive to take a lead the Seahawks never relinquished.

Eeyore somehow transformed that into PFF awarding a "'come from behind' (sic) win" to Smith, evidently confusing two different things Kacsmar invented: game-winning drives and fourth-quarter comebacks. In other words, his criticism of PFF is based on something PFF doesn't use (that's why you couldn't find it) and on his own total failure to understand what the game-winning drive stat is and has been for a long time.

 

[pittpnthrs]

PFF provides a more comprehensive evaluation than total stats, which is what you are using. For example, this particular stat tells us about the attribution of blame between QB and OL. Here, Geno contributed to 9% of his sacks last season, so we can say 4 out of Geno's 49 sacks were directly a result of his actions. Is it subjective? To some extent because it relies on a scout's interpretation of individual plays. However, it tells us more about those 49 sacks than your analysis, which looks at the total and asks, "How is that good?"

Do you have a link to that Giant's stat? I can't find it on the website.

So basically if Geno only contributed to 9% of the sacks last season then the Oline was just horrid. Wilson dealt with horrid lines too dont forget,

Giants stat -

Geno Smith's Career 4th quarter comebacks and game-winning drives | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Get Geno Smith Career 4th quarter comebacks for regular season and playoff games on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

They gave him credit for an OT win against the Rams too which probably had as much to do with a coin toss as anything else. Cant remember though.

 

[pittpnthrs]

Scott Kacsmar and my definition of come from behind wins differ greatly. How can somebody be credited with a come from behind win when they were never behind? Its titled 'come from behind' not 'held on to win'.

You guys do you though and use it as a benchmark.

 

[Lagartixa]

Scott Kacsmar and my definition of come from behind wins differ greatly. How can somebody be credited with a come from behind win when they were never behind? Its titled 'come from behind' not 'held on to win'.

You guys do you though and use it as a benchmark.

OK, now I see that the problem is almost certainly reading comprehension, though I can't yet completely rule out willful obtuseness, possibly as a form of trolling.

Try and spot the difference between the following two different statistic names. I'm giving you the hint that they're different, so if you don't see the differences immediately, keep looking. I promise you there are differences. Ready?

1. GAME-WINNING DRIVES
2. FOURTH-QUARTER COMEBACKS

First, note that neither is called a "come from behind (sic) win." The second one is similar in spirit, but different in wording.

Now, can you spot any differences between those two terms in boldface? We don't need to worry about their definitions for the moment. Just look carefully at the two names and see if you can spot any differences. Take your time. When you've spotted the differences (and again, I'm telling you they're there), go ahead and read on.

Didja spot the differences?

OK.

Smith and the Seahawks were credited with a GAME-WINNING DRIVE in the game against the Giants in 2022. The game was tied in the fourth quarter. Smith and the Seahawks offense then had a touchdown drive to take a lead the team didn't relinquish. This clearly fits the since-2009 definition of a GAME-WINNING DRIVE.

It does not fit the definition of a fourth-quarter comeback, which is closer to the "come from behind (sic) win" you seem to think somebody credited to Smith and the Seahawks for that game, but the first time I ever heard anyone saying that was when you made it up in your comment this evening in your desperation to discredit PFF because their analysis suggested Geno Smith is better at avoiding sacks than Russell Wilson, even though PFF has nothing to do with the definitions of game-winning drives or fourth-quarter comebacks.

 

[scutterhawk]

PFF lives in their own world with their stats. Geno was tied for the 3rd most sacked QB last season. How is that good?

PFF credited Geno with a come from behind win against the Giants last year. A game in which Seattle never trailed in. *shrug*. Take PFF for what their worth.

PFF lives in their own world with their stats?....Pretty much like yourself and some other RW apologizers & Pete Haters do too.
Probably galls the siht outta some of y'all that Geno won that 'Come Back Player of The Year' award & made the PRO-Bowl too instead of just goin' to hell in a handbasket under "Meddling Pete Carrolls Control".
Geno had the same HC, & OC in 2022 that Russ had in 2021....Hell, even Cowherd admitted that it wasn't Pete that was holding Wilson back, it was Russ that was holding Wilson back
IF PFF was saying shit that you agreed with, you'd be singing a different tune....Sometimes the truth just doesn't fit with a preconceived mindset. (grass bein' greener on the other side) Just ask RW about having Sean Payton (his choice for HC).
Wilson thought that he was going to be Tom Brady 2.0 and so did a bunch of other RW fan-folks HERE.

 

[knownone]

So basically if Geno only contributed to 9% of the sacks last season then the Oline was just horrid. Wilson dealt with horrid lines too dont forget,

Giants stat -

Geno Smith's Career 4th quarter comebacks and game-winning drives | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Get Geno Smith Career 4th quarter comebacks for regular season and playoff games on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

They gave him credit for an OT win against the Rams too which probably had as much to do with a coin toss as anything else. Cant remember though.

There are a lot of factors that go into sacks. So it could be the OL or playcalling. For example, a naked bootleg that runs the QB into a blitz is hard to blame directly on the OL or the QB.

It goes both ways with Russell. On the one hand, he undeniably made his offensive line look worse, and that translates into his stats looking bad. Causing 25-30% of your sacks and pressures is not good. On the other hand, QBs who extend and create big plays often cause many of their own troubles numerically. We see that with Mahomes, Hurts, and Allen, albeit only Hurts creates as many problems for himself as Russ. Mahomes and Allen hover between 15-20%.

Alright, to clarify, we're talking about different sources. I'm talking about Pro Football Focus, while you are talking about Pro Football Reference.

 

[BirdsCommaAngry]

So if he's not the guy, we're starting him and trying to make the playoffs while keeping an eye out for opportunities to snag a QB or two who might potentially replace him. But if he is the guy, we're starting him and trying to make the playoffs while keeping an eye out for opportunities to snag a QB or two might potentially replace him. Wow, it's really important to figure out if he's the guy or not!

 

[pittpnthrs]

OK, now I see that the problem is almost certainly reading comprehension, though I can't yet completely rule out willful obtuseness, possibly as a form of trolling.

Try and spot the difference between the following two different statistic names. I'm giving you the hint that they're different, so if you don't see the differences immediately, keep looking. I promise you there are differences. Ready?

1. GAME-WINNING DRIVES
2. FOURTH-QUARTER COMEBACKS

First, note that neither is called a "come from behind (sic) win." The second one is similar in spirit, but different in wording.

Now, can you spot any differences between those two terms in boldface? We don't need to worry about their definitions for the moment. Just look carefully at the two names and see if you can spot any differences. Take your time. When you've spotted the differences (and again, I'm telling you they're there), go ahead and read on.

Didja spot the differences?

OK.

Smith and the Seahawks were credited with a GAME-WINNING DRIVE in the game against the Giants in 2022. The game was tied in the fourth quarter. Smith and the Seahawks offense then had a touchdown drive to take a lead the team didn't relinquish. This clearly fits the since-2009 definition of a GAME-WINNING DRIVE.

It does not fit the definition of a fourth-quarter comeback, which is closer to the "come from behind (sic) win" you seem to think somebody credited to Smith and the Seahawks for that game, but the first time I ever heard anyone saying that was when you made it up in your comment this evening in your desperation to discredit PFF because their analysis suggested Geno Smith is better at avoiding sacks than Russell Wilson, even though PFF has nothing to do with the definitions of game-winning drives or fourth-quarter comebacks.

Good lord. So if a team kicks a field goal on the first drive of the game and ends up winning 3-0, that QB is credited with a Game-Winning Drive? Lol, ok.

Why the semantics between the wording of Fourth-Quarter Comebacks and Come From Behind wins when they are the same thing? Sounds like reaching to me.

 

[Lagartixa]

Alright, to clarify, we're talking about different sources. I'm talking about Pro Football Focus, while you are talking about Pro Football Reference.

Just a nitpick. He's not really talking about Pro-Football Reference. He's confusing two different stats invented 14 years ago by a guy who was writing for Pro-Football Reference at the time and just making $#!+ up about one being credited to Smith that actually wasn't anywhere but in his own comment.

If you look at the list of Smith's career 4QCs and GWDs that @pittpnthrs himself linked, in the "Notes" column of the line representing the 2022 game against the Giants, it says "GWD" and does not say "4QC." In the lines for the two games against the Rams last year and the one against the Lions this year, it says "4QC/GWD" because Smith led drives in those games that fit the definitions of both (different-from-each-other) stats.

So as far as I know, the only person who has ever credited Geno Smith with a "come from behind (sic) win" or a fourth-quarter comeback for the 2022 game against the Giants is @pittpnthrs. Because the information systems at Pro-Football Reference have the correct definitions of fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives, Pro-Football Reference never credited Smith with a fourth-quarter comeback for the game against the Giants in 2022. And because PFF doesn't tabulate 4QCs and GWDs, PFF didn't either.

 

[pittpnthrs]

Probably galls the siht outta some of y'all that Geno won that 'Come Back Player of The Year' award & made the PRO-Bowl too instead of just goin' to hell in a handbasket under "Meddling Pete Carrolls Control".

Doesnt gall me at all, but its pretty laughable. He came back from what? Finally not sucking for a season? Congratulations, a guy finally had a good season after being in the league for an eternity.

Pro-Bowls are a joke. Everybody makes the pro-bowl. Hell, Wilson made it in 2022 and played like crap for Seattle during the season.

Its ok if you love Geno. Your allowed. I see him for what he is and dont expect much from him.

 

[pittpnthrs]

Alright, to clarify, we're talking about different sources. I'm talking about Pro Football Focus, while you are talking about Pro Football Reference.

Fair. I wasnt aware.

 

[Lagartixa]

Good lord. So if a team kicks a field goal on the first drive of the game and ends up winning 3-0, that QB is credited with a Game-Winning Drive? Lol, ok.

No, it has to be in the fourth quarter, and the offense has to contribute. How is it that you can read parts of my comments, but can't manage to read the short, bullet-pointed definitions of GWDs and 4QCs?

Why the semantics between the wording of Fourth-Quarter Comebacks and Come From Behind wins when they are the same thing? Sounds like reaching to me.

They're not the same thing. On the page you yourself linked, there are examples of games in which Smith led a GWD that was not a 4QC (the Seahawks game against the Giants in 2022 and four different games for the Jets in 2013-2014). There are also examples of games in which Smith was credited with both a GWD and a 4QC (the Seahawks games against the Rams in 2022 and the one against the Lions in 2023).
It's also possible to be credited with a 4QC but not a game-winning drive.

 

[pittpnthrs]

Just a nitpick. He's not really talking about Pro-Football Reference. He's confusing two different stats invented 14 years ago by a guy who was writing for Pro-Football Reference at the time and just making $#!+ up about one being credited to Smith that actually wasn't anywhere but in his own comment.

If you look at the list of Smith's career 4QCs and GWDs that @pittpnthrs himself linked, in the "Notes" column of the line representing the 2022 game against the Giants, it says "GWD" and does not say "4QC." In the lines for the two games against the Rams last year and the one against the Lions this year, it says "4QC/GWD" because Smith led drives in those games that fit the definitions of both (different-from-each-other) stats.

So as far as I know, the only person who has ever credited Geno Smith with a "come from behind (sic) win" or a fourth-quarter comeback for the 2022 game against the Giants is @pittpnthrs. Because the information systems at Pro-Football Reference have the correct definitions of fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives, Pro-Football Reference never credited Smith with a fourth-quarter comeback for the game against the Giants in 2022. And because PFF doesn't tabulate 4QCs and GWDs, PFF didn't either.

Once again. What is your definition of a game winning drive? If a team is winning in the first Quarter and neither score again, is the winning teams QB credited with a GWD? According to PFF and you, every QB in every game should be credited with a game winning drive. There was over 9 minutes left in the Giants game when Seattle took the lead. Hell, they scored again afterwards. What drive gets the credit?

 

[pittpnthrs]

No, it has to be in the fourth quarter, and the offense has to contribute. How is it that you can read parts of my comments, but can't manage to read the short, bullet-pointed definitions of GWDs and 4QCs?



They're not the same thing. On the page you yourself linked, there are examples of games in which Smith led a GWD that was not a 4QC (the Seahawks game against the Giants in 2022 and four different games for the Jets in 2013-2014). There are also examples of games in which Smith was credited with both a GWD and a 4QC (the Seahawks games against the Rams in 2022 and the one against the Lions in 2023).
It's also possible to be credited with a 4QC but not a game-winning drive.

I know you didnt make the rules of all this, but by definition, if a team is tied late in the 4th quarter and say a team starts on the 3 yard line and they drive down the field to say the 10 after several completions on the way and they kick a FG to win the game with no time left on the clock, that QB is NOT credited for a GWD drive right? Although he led them downfield for the win.

Seems like 4QC's and GWD's are given out in droves per the definition we are speaking of so Geno having 3 last season doesnt seem very impressive right?

 

[JPatera76]

either way we could have worse... and its hard to hate on someone as humble as Geno.

 

[toffee]

either way we could have worse... and its hard to hate on someone as humble as Geno.

We, the 12s, mustn't forget that Geno signed a team friendly contract during the off season. As a renown Wilsoncologist, I can assure you that Wilson will never sign anything remotely team friendly.

 

[Lagartixa]

@pittpnthrs, first, I want to thank you for the comment quoted below. Before it, I wondered if you were very successfully trolling me.

I know you didnt make the rules of all this, but by definition, if a team is tied late in the 4th quarter and say a team starts on the 3 yard line and they drive down the field to say the 10 after several completions on the way and they kick a FG to win the game with no time left on the clock, that QB is NOT credited for a GWD drive right? Although he led them downfield for the win.

I think in that case he does. I think what the definition is saying is that if the team wins on a pick-six or a fumble recovery for a TD after having been tied or down, or if the team recovers the ball in field-goal range and the offense doesn't advance the ball before kicking a field goal, then it's not a GWD.

There will of course be flaws in any measure.
It's like some of the attempted measures of "clutch hitting" in baseball, like LIPS (batting stats in Late-Inning Pressure Situations), "close-and-late" batting stats, PWA, or BWA.
Those do all provide some interesting information, but they're all flawed in ways that make it easy to imagine situations in which they'd indicate something silly.
I just went and read Kacsmar's original posts (via the Wayback Machine, linked from the page with the definitions). It looks like different teams were defining in different ways how many times their QBs had led the team to victory late in the game, so he just wanted to standardize. Because some teams (Broncos) were counting games in which the QB led a drive to break a tie, while others (Dolphins) were only counting comebacks, Kacsmar decided to create two different stats. He explains his reasoning pretty clearly and in detail in those posts. I found them worth reading. In the third part, he tries to focus on edge cases.

Seems like 4QC's and GWD's are given out in droves per the definition we are speaking of so Geno having 3 last season doesnt seem very impressive right?

Tom Brady had as few as one and as many as five GWDs in every full season he played. We can say the same about Smith. How "impressive" is it?

 

[pittpnthrs]

@pittpnthrs, first, I want to thank you for the comment quoted below. Before it, I wondered if you were very successfully trolling me.



I think in that case he does. I think what the definition is saying is that if the team wins on a pick-six or a fumble recovery for a TD after having been tied or down, or if the team recovers the ball in field-goal range and the offense doesn't advance the ball before kicking a field goal, then it's not a GWD.

There will of course be flaws in any measure.
It's like some of the attempted measures of "clutch hitting" in baseball, like LIPS (batting stats in Late-Inning Pressure Situations), "close-and-late" batting stats, PWA, or BWA.
Those do all provide some interesting information, but they're all flawed in ways that make it easy to imagine situations in which they'd indicate something silly.
I just went and read Kacsmar's original posts (via the Wayback Machine, linked from the page with the definitions). It looks like different teams were defining in different ways how many times their QBs had led the team to victory late in the game, so he just wanted to standardize. Because some teams (Broncos) were counting games in which the QB led a drive to break a tie, while others (Dolphins) were only counting comebacks, Kacsmar decided to create two different stats. He explains his reasoning pretty clearly and in detail in those posts. I found them worth reading. In the third part, he tries to focus on edge cases.



Tom Brady had as few as one and as many as five GWDs in every full season he played. We can say the same about Smith. How "impressive" is it?

Its all good. First world problems. Lol.

Let's just get a win tomorrow no matter how it happens.

 

[BASF]

To piggyback on Lagartixa's points, the QB has to throw a touchdown to get the stats. For instance, Geno was responsible for the audible that had Rashad Penny running untouched for the game winning touchdown against the Lions in 2022. It doesn't show up in any stat for Geno, but without that perfect audible, we might have lost that game.

 

[scutterhawk]

Once again. What is your definition of a game winning drive? If a team is winning in the first Quarter and neither score again, is the winning teams QB credited with a GWD? According to PFF and you, every QB in every game should be credited with a game winning drive. There was over 9 minutes left in the Giants game when Seattle took the lead. Hell, they scored again afterwards. What drive gets the credit?

This isn't 'Rocket Science', it was BOTH DRIVES---The Drive to take the damned "Lead" is the CAKE & the running up the score to seal the win is just icing on the CAKE.