Let This Sink In...

[ludakrishna]

Carried by the run game and defense? Hilarious
Thx for the laugh. They don't come CLOSE to making back to back Super Bowl's w/out him. Let alone all the other playoff appearances.

This tired argument still? The Defense and Running game carried him?
God that is rich...….

How many championship games without the LOB? How many championship games without a running game? Since the LOB ended, 1-3 playoff record with the sole win coming against a 41yr old backup QB.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

It would be ZERO without Russ.
Feel free to deny what he has done with this team.
Feel free to act like this would be a winning team without him.
I've been listening to this ridiculous stuff for 9 years. Future HOF, period.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

It would be ZERO without Russ.
Feel free to deny what he has done with this team.
Feel free to act like this would be a winning team without him.
I've been listening to this ridiculous stuff for 9 years. Future HOF, period.

For sure future HOF, but that doesn't mean there isn't merit to the fact that we haven't come close to another SB since Russell got paid and the defense stopped being elite.

Listen, it's a great problem to have a top 10 that sometimes plays like an elite top 5 QB. But that is a problem in the NFL, when you pay one of those QB's 35M a year and they don't play like it in the most important games and the playoffs, you lose..........because there is no elite defense to bail him out.

So that's our future, and has been our past and present now for a while. When Russ balls out we win, when he doesn't? We lose. Because there's no cap room anymore to spend 75% of it on the defensive side of the ball.

 

[potatohead33]

People want to say he played great before 49, do people forget the NFC Championship game that year? He threw four picks and it was a straight up miracle they even went to the Bowl that year.

 

[ludakrishna]

It would be ZERO without Russ.
Feel free to deny what he has done with this team.
Feel free to act like this would be a winning team without him.
I've been listening to this ridiculous stuff for 9 years. Future HOF, period.

2013 Divisional Game: Marshawn won it vs the Saints
2013 NFC Championship Game: Sherm Tip
2013 Super Bowl: Defense Domination

 

[LoneHawkFan]

The Browns do have more talent. They have a better coach, Oline, defense, RB's, and their WR corp is probably just as good or better when healthy.

Our defense gave up 48 fewer points, had 1 more takeaway, gave up 8 fewer pass TDs against 2 more rushing TDs, gave up half a yard less per rush- even with their (CLE) all-world DLine (our LBs are on a different level than their's), had 20 fewer penalties, gave up points on fewer drives...

But their defense is better? I mean...if you take away the first 6 games of the season, we catapult waaaaaaaaay ahead of Cleveland. Not even close. Their 2nd leading tackler was Malcom Smith (yes, that same Malcom Smith).

Their defense isn't good. They get a lot of sacks...oh wait...we got more of those, too. Even had a higher Pressure% (YES- even though CLE has Myles Garrett, Vernon, and Richardson).

They have a better OLine, RBs and that's it for personnel.

We have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. Plenty.

 

[LoneHawkFan]

It would be ZERO without Russ.
Feel free to deny what he has done with this team.
Feel free to act like this would be a winning team without him.
I've been listening to this ridiculous stuff for 9 years. Future HOF, period.

2013 Divisional Game: Marshawn won it vs the Saints
2013 NFC Championship Game: Sherm Tip
2013 Super Bowl: Defense Domination

Also: 2014 NFCCG he had 4INTs the only reason we were still in it after that was the LOB.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Calling Russell mediocre is a premise based heavily on a small sample size, whereas his career as a whole is impressive. Your analogy works explicitly against you, not for you.

Last 10 consecutive weeks of the season say otherwise. He was mediocre. Russell showed me this year that his peak is that of a Joe Flacco. He will never be Aaron Rodgers, Brady or Mahomes

That's an amazingly flawed premise. A peak isn't defined by a dip, its defined by... well, a peak. Saying his peak is Flacco when his peak is obviously far higher than Flacco is absolutely nuts.

Again, the examples you're providing do much more to disprove your argument than support it.

When did Russell peak?

If you look at his per-pass attempt metrics, he really hasn't progressed at all from his rookie season and the data implies that his entire career has essentially been one big plateau...and his increased production over the 9 years is essentially 100% driven by how many times he passes the ball.

Completion%
TD%
INT%
Yards/Attempt
Adjusted Yards/Attempt
Yards/catch
Rate
QBR
Net yards/attempt (includes sack yards lost)
adjusted net yards/attempt
Sack%

It's all essentially EXACTLY THE SAME EVERY SINGLE YEAR. Literally, zero improvement. The only thing driving the more production...is more pass attempts. That's it.

Mhm. And that "exactly the same every single year" is several tiers above Joe Flacco, and is consistently one of the top quarterback stat lines in the league.

I'm not even going to get deeply into the statistical analysis here - but if you're honestly contending that Russell's line has shown no growth since his rookie season, it's clear you're not arguing in good faith, and I've got nothing left to say to you.

 

[LoneHawkFan]

Last 10 consecutive weeks of the season say otherwise. He was mediocre. Russell showed me this year that his peak is that of a Joe Flacco. He will never be Aaron Rodgers, Brady or Mahomes

That's an amazingly flawed premise. A peak isn't defined by a dip, its defined by... well, a peak. Saying his peak is Flacco when his peak is obviously far higher than Flacco is absolutely nuts.

Again, the examples you're providing do much more to disprove your argument than support it.

When did Russell peak?

If you look at his per-pass attempt metrics, he really hasn't progressed at all from his rookie season and the data implies that his entire career has essentially been one big plateau...and his increased production over the 9 years is essentially 100% driven by how many times he passes the ball.

Completion%
TD%
INT%
Yards/Attempt
Adjusted Yards/Attempt
Yards/catch
Rate
QBR
Net yards/attempt (includes sack yards lost)
adjusted net yards/attempt
Sack%

It's all essentially EXACTLY THE SAME EVERY SINGLE YEAR. Literally, zero improvement. The only thing driving the more production...is more pass attempts. That's it.

Mhm. And that "exactly the same every single year" is several tiers above Joe Flacco, and is consistently one of the top quarterback stat lines in the league.

I'm not even going to get deeply into the statistical analysis here - but if you're honestly contending that Russell's line has shown no growth since his rookie season, it's clear you're not arguing in good faith, and I've got nothing left to say to you.

I never mentioned Joe Flacco nor did I say I thought he was mediocre.

I asked you a question regarding when you think his peak was.

You didn't answer the question.

You probably didn't even look at those stats to see if he has materially improved those metrics or not...but I'll save you the time. Russell's stats in each of his 1st 9 seasons are extremely consistent year-to-year in all of those categories. If the data in these particular categories don't change, then by definition the only reason he threw more TDs in 2020 than in 2012 is because he threw the ball more times.

Of course he has better individual games now than he did in 2012-13. I know he has improved parts of his game. But other parts have also vanished.

I'm not saying he's a bad QB. I LOVE RUSSELL. Read what I'm trying to say without emotion. All I'm pointing out is that those stats have not improved over the course of his career. They haven't. They really haven't. I didn't realize that until today...

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... lsRu00.htm

 

[Bobblehead]

The Cleveland Browns are Officially better than the Seattle Seahawks.

Ask yourself this:

Do the Cleveland Browns have better talent than the Seahawks?

Is Baker Mayfield better than Russell Wilson?

The answer to those questions is flat out...NO.

So that leaves just one things: Coaching.

In one season of Coaching, Kevin Stefanski has already gotten the Browns farther than the Seattle Seahawks. Even without him, since he wasn't at the game last night due to COVID, his coaching staff far outperformed our coaches and absolutely destroyed the Steelers. I just read that our idiot head coach won't get rid of Schotty, which means, expect more of the same. There is zero reason to expect things to progress or change otherwise. When I heard Carroll was extended until 2025, it sunk in that the Seahawks will not sniff another Superbowl until Carroll is gone. For all of those that are all Rainbows and "But we've made the playoffs" continue to look forward to early playoff exits. Temper your expectations to all of us who live in reality. Sad to see all this talent on our team being WASTED.



Just disgusting. Ironic how after they won the NFC West Division they wore a shirt "Won not Done". Should have been changed to "One and Done".

Well.. they do have a great OL, best in the league? Maybe. They have 2 awesome RB's, one of the best Def linemen in the league so.. it's not just coaching, they have talent.

 

[Chapow]

Pete chose Penny over Chubb in the draft...

And Bill Belichick chose Sony Michel over Chubb in the draft...

And yeah, Michel has been solid when available, but has missed a lot of time due to various injuries, and has been no where near as good as Chubb either.

 

[OrangeGravy]

The Browns could very well have the most talented roster in the NFL, actually. They're quite solid.

This ^^^^^. I'd take their roster in a straight up swap keeping Russell in a heartbeat. The area I think we're better is the LB and CB/S area. Their offense everywhere but QB is way better and their D line is mostly better. I think Russ on that team is pushing for a 1/2 seed in either conference. Russell with that running game would be deadly.

 

[Maelstrom787]

That's an amazingly flawed premise. A peak isn't defined by a dip, its defined by... well, a peak. Saying his peak is Flacco when his peak is obviously far higher than Flacco is absolutely nuts.

Again, the examples you're providing do much more to disprove your argument than support it.

When did Russell peak?

If you look at his per-pass attempt metrics, he really hasn't progressed at all from his rookie season and the data implies that his entire career has essentially been one big plateau...and his increased production over the 9 years is essentially 100% driven by how many times he passes the ball.

Completion%
TD%
INT%
Yards/Attempt
Adjusted Yards/Attempt
Yards/catch
Rate
QBR
Net yards/attempt (includes sack yards lost)
adjusted net yards/attempt
Sack%

It's all essentially EXACTLY THE SAME EVERY SINGLE YEAR. Literally, zero improvement. The only thing driving the more production...is more pass attempts. That's it.

Mhm. And that "exactly the same every single year" is several tiers above Joe Flacco, and is consistently one of the top quarterback stat lines in the league.

I'm not even going to get deeply into the statistical analysis here - but if you're honestly contending that Russell's line has shown no growth since his rookie season, it's clear you're not arguing in good faith, and I've got nothing left to say to you.

I never mentioned Joe Flacco nor did I say I thought he was mediocre.

I asked you a question regarding when you think his peak was.

You didn't answer the question.

You probably didn't even look at those stats to see if he has materially improved those metrics or not...but I'll save you the time. Russell's stats in each of his 1st 9 seasons are extremely consistent year-to-year in all of those categories. If the data in these particular categories don't change, then by definition the only reason he threw more TDs in 2020 than in 2012 is because he threw the ball more times.

Of course he has better individual games now than he did in 2012-13. I know he has improved parts of his game. But other parts have also vanished.

I'm not saying he's a bad QB. I LOVE RUSSELL. Read what I'm trying to say without emotion. All I'm pointing out is that those stats have not improved over the course of his career. They haven't. They really haven't. I didn't realize that until today...

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... lsRu00.htm

My bad. For some reason, wires got crossed and I thought I was still replying to Ludakrishna, which made the reply seem a bit more... weird, than it actually was. I don't think you're responding in bad faith to be clear, and thought we were still on the Flacco topic.

Anyway, statistically, he's appreciably better than when he came into the league. His rookie season saw one of his lowest YPA years combined with a relatively low touchdown stat, especially relative to his 10 picks in the season where he threw the ball least.

Just doing some basic passing stat analysis, I'm gonna average the last 3 years and compare it to an average of his first 3 years, rounding up/down to the nearest decimal.

2012-2014 average: 265 comp/417 att, 64% completion, 3317 yards, 24 TD/9 INT, 8 Y/A. 607 rushing yards. Throws a pick every 46 passes. Throws a touchdown every 17 passes.

2018-2020 average: 335 comp/500 att, 67% completion, 3923 yards, 35 TD/8 INT, 7.8 Y/A. 336 rushing yards. Throws a pick every 62.5 passes. Throws a touchdown every 14 passes.

Which'd you rather have?

What we can see here is an appreciable difference in his accuracy and efficiency. He completes more of his passes, throws way more touchdowns, throws less picks, and with very little effect on the yards per attempt.

2015 is an outlier season. It was really good, and it sits on an island, sandwiched between his worst seasons (2014/2016/2017). The 3 most recent years, especially 2018 and 2019, look mighty similar to 2015.

If I had to choose a peak season, though? 2018. Ridiculous efficiency even with a high yard per attempt, only threw 7 picks to 35 touchdowns. Stupidly good 8.2% touchdown %. 2019 was nearly as good, and better in some respects. The beginning of 2020 was... absurd. Absolutely absurdly good, but it all fell apart... and still looks like a damn good season on paper.

Also, the way you're phrasing your reply indicates that you think that efficiency stats remaining relatively flat as volume increases is a bad thing. That couldn't be further from the truth - in my opinion, its the hallmark of a true franchise guy and indicates a special level of scheme-independent talent.

Don't get me wrong - the end of 2020 was ugly. But to say Russ hasn't improved over his career just doesn't check out, no matter whether its the eye test or the stat sheet.

EDIT: Believe me, I've looked at these stats, and I can quote you most of them from memory. They're seared into my brain after countless Twitter wars on the Andrew Luck v. Russell Wilson topic. And, regarding plateauing, if Russ plateaus at THIS:

2018-2020 average: 335 comp/500 att, 67% completion, 3923 yards, 35 TD/8 INT, 7.8 Y/A. 336 rushing yards. Throws a pick every 62.5 passes. Throws a touchdown every 14 passes.

Then uh... that's my quarterback, man. You can win a championship with that production. No doubt. That's a sexy plateau right there.

 

[OrangeGravy]

That's not news . Watch the playoffs . There are several teams better than the Hawks .

...but not necessarily more talented...

And therein lies the crux of it all.

I can't think of one team that's still in the playoffs except maybe the Rams that doesn't have more talent top to bottom than us.

I think some of you guys over estimate our personnel.

Specially on offense. Our personnel on O is mostly average. You have Russ, TL, DK ( still needs to clean up some things ), Brown, Carson when healthy. There are enough better backs in around that Carson is in the above average category, but not far enough above. Every other position is either average at best to well below average. These days you really need a 3rd dangerous option in the passing game and an above average back. We don't have that 3rd option and our backs aren't healthy enough to add anything consistently. KC has 4 options in the passing game including their back that can hurt you. TB has 3 A+ options. NO has 3+ including the back. GB is the only team that gets by without many, but Rodgers is good enough to make up for that along with that O-line being way above average.

 

[OrangeGravy]

If you're inferring that Russ isn't as talented as most have been led to believe, I tend to agree with that. .

I'm the one who got kicked in the nuts all last week for saying Russell isn't as good as the other elite QB's in the league like Rodgers and Brees.

He's in the next 1b tier of QB's, QB's that can jump up and play at an elite level in flashes like we saw at the beginning of the year............but also can stink up the joint for stretches of games, also as we saw this year.

He needs a great defense, he needs a great run game in order to back the defense off so he can do what he does best, play action and make explosive plays. He doesn't throw on time well, he holds the ball too long and has a very difficult time throwing into windows while in progression.

So yeah, we love Russell but is he worth 35M a year if he's never going to take that next step to truly becoming a consistent elite QB week in and week out to carry this team to another SB under Pete's offense?

Eh, I'm not so sure about that.

The problem isn't that he isn't worth 35M, because he is when compared to other QBs and their pay. The problem is that QBs in general eat up way too much of the cap on a 53 man roster. When the market forces you to either pay 35+M for a top ten QB or 20-28M for an average QB, it's a no win situation. The market has basically reduced the league into needing a good enough QB on a rookie deal to have a legit chance to win it all. The only other option is to convince a HOF QB to take a pay cut. If you pay market value for any QB, you're pretty much left with hoping the stars align.

 

[hawkfan68]

Pete chose Penny over Chubb in the draft...

Just because Chubb has success with the Browns doesn't guarantee he would have the same success with other teams. Browns have a good OL; much better than the Seahawks.

 

[JPatera76]

Pete chose Penny over Chubb in the draft...

Just because Chubb has success with the Browns doesn't guarantee he would have the same success with other teams. Browns have a good OL; much better than the Seahawks.

No I’m just stating anytime Pete basically has say so in talent we’re left scratching our heads because he lets no name people who really DO NOT work or pan out stick around.. and chases names he thought were great while HE was at USC ..

 

[Maelstrom787]

Pete chose Penny over Chubb in the draft...

Just because Chubb has success with the Browns doesn't guarantee he would have the same success with other teams. Browns have a good OL; much better than the Seahawks.

No I’m just stating anytime Pete basically has say so in talent we’re left scratching our heads because he lets no name people who really DO NOT work or pan out stick around.. and chases names he thought were great while HE was at USC ..

..this is beginning to make less sense as you go on.

Pete's been out of USC for a full 10 years. He's not just chasing college players he knew around. Hardly any of them even play anymore.

Also, I'm sorry, but Chubb in the first is ridiculously risky. If you want to dock them for McDowell, which I'm sure you have, then you should probably admit that spending a high pick on a running back whose knee basically exploded in college is horrible process.

I get that Chubb is just an example, but at least go after a better example.

 

[Sports Hernia]

The Cleveland Browns are Officially better than the Seattle Seahawks.

Ask yourself this:

Do the Cleveland Browns have better talent than the Seahawks?

Is Baker Mayfield better than Russell Wilson?

The answer to those questions is flat out...NO.

So that leaves just one things: Coaching.

In one season of Coaching, Kevin Stefanski has already gotten the Browns farther than the Seattle Seahawks. Even without him, since he wasn't at the game last night due to COVID, his coaching staff far outperformed our coaches and absolutely destroyed the Steelers. I just read that our idiot head coach won't get rid of Schotty, which means, expect more of the same. There is zero reason to expect things to progress or change otherwise. When I heard Carroll was extended until 2025, it sunk in that the Seahawks will not sniff another Superbowl until Carroll is gone. For all of those that are all Rainbows and "But we've made the playoffs" continue to look forward to early playoff exits. Temper your expectations to all of us who live in reality. Sad to see all this talent on our team being WASTED.



Just disgusting. Ironic how after they won the NFC West Division they wore a shirt "Won not Done". Should have been changed to "One and Done".

They currently have a better coaching staff that the league hasn’t figured out yet.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Let this sink in: Drama...….

2nd, EVERY team that made the playoffs has the same shirt that says "Won not Done"