Alex Collins

[theincrediblesok]

I'm loving the competition at RB, it's the most interesting one so far. Alex is my adopt a rookie and I hope they give him a chance with the 1st against Dallas. We know what we got in Michael so maybe he can give the bulk load to Alex. I'm also surprised at the play of Pope, dude runs hard. At this point we got some good RBs. Alex needs to start showing something cause others seemed to be even hungrier.

 

[Megatron]

Barry Sanders college stats probably would have been better had he not been backing up Thurman Thomas, but he did not rush for more than a 1000 yards until his junior year.
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/barry-sanders-1.html

Jim Brown did not rush for more than a thousand yards in any in any of his college years, but those numbers are probably skewed because they only played 8 games a year.
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jim-brown-1.html

OJ Simpson could also have probably rushed for more than 1000 yards all four seasons if played at USC, but he went to CCSF for the first two before going to USC. His stats at USC were still amazing, though.
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/oj-simpson-1.html

There were no other players who I could find who could fill your criteria (granted there may be more, but I'll save that for some one else to look up), Marshall Faulk and Tony Dorsett both rushed for more than 1000 yards in each of their college years, but they did not play in power 5 conferences. Most of the other great NFL (let' s say rushed for more than 1500 yards in a NFL season, but other numbers could be added to that, for example Marshall Faulk's receiving yards) running backs I looked up did not fill your criteria because they were back-ups to other good to great running backs, went to JC before FBS, or did not play enough for whatever reason to get the yardage. Marcus Allen, Frank Gore, Shaun Alexandar (greater than 1500 yards twice), LaDainian Tomlinson (greater than 1500 yards three times), Eric Dickerson (greater than 1500 yards four times), OJ Simpson (greater than 1500 yards three times), etc., etc.

So in short all it takes is "To start as a true freshmen in a power 5 conference, run for over 1,000 the first 3 years, never miss a game, then enter the draft at 20/21" to become a serviceable to good NFL running back (Darren McFadden), to become a great one takes even less according to your criteria if followed strictly. How many first round busts have there been that had great college careers, Blair Thomas, Curtis Enis, Ki-Jana Carter, and Trent Richardson come to mind. So you are correct, college success does not equal NFL success.

Wow, I appreciate all the work you put into that Megatron. thanks a ton!

Really confirmed what I suspected, that it really is an exclusive club, and it appears everyone in that club didn't just turn into an NFL starter, but really excelled, virtually all HOF'ers!

And I know I'm beating a dead horse here, but just to say it one last way., one last time.

Any RB that ever displayed that level of production, durability and consistency in major college, (3- 1K seasons, no injuries) eventually became a NFL HOF'er, or a multi year starter at least (McFadden). Every one.

I'm not trying to induct AC into the HoF yet, What I'm saying is history of his collegiate achievements strongly suggests he'll be very productive in the NFL for a lot of years.

Actually I found two running backs who may fit your criteria, Ron Dayne and Laurence Maroney, both rushed for greater than 1000 yds in their first three seasons, Dayne did it for a fourth, I'm not sure about their injury status (I believe both were injury free), or their age when they came out for the draft so they may be ruled out if I follow your criteria. They aren't exactly HoF's, Ron Dayne was actually quite a disappointment during his pro career. Laurence Maroney was drafted by the wrong team to rack up yards, New England (mostly a passing team and running back by committee). There is a third who did it in Big !0 history but I can't find out who it is for the life of me.

Leonard Fournette maybe the next one to fulfill your criteria, but it will be a while before we can see if his college production matches his pro prodcution.

BTW, Herschel Walker isn't in the HoF yet, although his pro production (USFL and NFL) certainly warrants it. I think he is still remembered as the player who created the Cowboys early 90's dynasty.

 

[ACFan]

Actually I found two running backs who may fit your criteria, Ron Dayne and Laurence Maroney, both rushed for greater than 1000 yds in their first three seasons, Dayne did it for a fourth, I'm not sure about their injury status (I believe both were injury free), or their age when they came out for the draft so they may be ruled out if I follow your criteria. They aren't exactly HoF's, Ron Dayne was actually quite a disappointment during his pro career. Laurence Maroney was drafted by the wrong team to rack up yards, New England (mostly a passing team and running back by committee). There is a third who did it in Big !0 history but I can't find out who it is for the life of me.

Leonard Fournette maybe the next one to fulfill your criteria, but it will be a while before we can see if his college production matches his pro prodcution.

BTW, Herschel Walker isn't in the HoF yet, although his pro production (USFL and NFL) certainly warrants it. I think he is still remembered as the player who created the Cowboys early 90's dynasty.

Your becoming my favorite poster MT, thanks again for the leg work.

Dayne and Maroney bring my argument down to earth a bit, although both were 1st round draft picks, and at 6 and 7 years playing, both had a longer than average RB shelf life, I'd say both had decent NFL careers, and they are the basement of who've we've found so far.

Emmitt Smith, (who I think is the best AC comparison) probably deserves to be on the list, he hit 1000 yards faster than any SEC freshman ever, had a knee injury halfway his soph year (but healed quickly enough to finish the season, durable!) ran for 988 yards that year, then had 1300 yards his JR year before going pro. His NFL career speaks for itself.

Herschel probably sets the curve of these unique qualities we are trying to pinpoint. Guy was just a specimen, he didn't have a degenerative anything, ran through college unscathed, whatever dings or knicks he got healed quickly or just never slowed him down, played pro ball for 15 years? unreal.

 

[Largent80]

So far, he stinks.

 

[kearly]

Actually I found two running backs who may fit your criteria, Ron Dayne and Laurence Maroney, both rushed for greater than 1000 yds in their first three seasons, Dayne did it for a fourth, I'm not sure about their injury status (I believe both were injury free), or their age when they came out for the draft so they may be ruled out if I follow your criteria. They aren't exactly HoF's, Ron Dayne was actually quite a disappointment during his pro career. Laurence Maroney was drafted by the wrong team to rack up yards, New England (mostly a passing team and running back by committee). There is a third who did it in Big !0 history but I can't find out who it is for the life of me.

Leonard Fournette maybe the next one to fulfill your criteria, but it will be a while before we can see if his college production matches his pro prodcution.

BTW, Herschel Walker isn't in the HoF yet, although his pro production (USFL and NFL) certainly warrants it. I think he is still remembered as the player who created the Cowboys early 90's dynasty.

I respect your willingness to look this stuff up, but it really shouldn't be necessary. ACFan is living an dying with the false criteria fallacy, basically cherry pick the things you like to find the result you like, and assume that there is a legit connection when in reality it is a mirage.

Any GM that drafts a guy just because of college production is an idiot. Tim Ruskell did this constantly and it mostly blew up in his face. Seattle is not that kind of team, and I guarantee they didn't draft Collins for any of the reasons that ACFan keeps harping on. They drafted Collins because at college he had the athletic profile in the same zip code as Chris Ivory. Unfortunately, Collins has not looked like that RB in the NFL, yet. Maybe Collins is playing hurt or maybe he is just off to a rough start. Or maybe he's one of the many many players who looks different in the NFL than he did in college. We still don't know for sure. Anyway, citing college stats tends to be more noise than substance.

 

[ACFan]

ACFan is living an dying with the false criteria fallacy, basically cherry pick the things you like to find the result you like, and assume that there is a legit connection when in reality it is a mirage.

Any GM that drafts a guy just because of college production is an idiot.

you are failing to recognise the distinction being made.

A college RB putting up a lot of yards and scoring a lot of TDs does NOT automatically equate to NFL success, I think we all agree on that.

But college RBs who put up a lot of yards and score a lot of TDs, continually, from the time they step on campus until they leave, virtually unscathed, DOES seem to equate to NFL success, usually major success, at least it has in every instance we can find so far.

It may not end up meaning anything for AC, and he may be the first exception to the rule, but it's a valid point.

Seattle is not that kind of team, and I guarantee they didn't draft Collins for any of the reasons that ACFan keeps harping on.

I remember on draft day, the RB coach gushing about AC, he mentioned both his durability, and that he, McFadden and Walker were the only ones to start their SEC careers with 3-1000 yard seasons.

AC's college resume was surely some component of why he was drafted.

 

[kearly]

Ron Dayne and other RBs were mentioned that fit the same criteria and failed. Durability is a legit thing you can take from it. The rest isn't even worth talking about. Hopefully Collins plays well but it won't be because of cherry picked stats and a faulty assumption of causality.

 

[ACFan]

Ron Dayne and other RBs were mentioned that fit the same criteria and failed.

The average NFL RB plays for 3 years, I think it's a stretch to call 6 and 7 year careers failures.

They were never stellar, but they were marginal successes, the worst two examples found.

Hopefully Collins plays well but it won't be because of cherry picked stats and a faulty assumption of causality.

we can agree to disagree mr. kearly.

I maintain that if AC is a success, his ability to physically withstand the rigors of playing RB and stay on the field will be a key factor, an attribute he clearly demonstrated he had in college.

we sorely need another game bro, likely make or break time for AC then.

 

[ACFan]

So far, he stinks.

can't disagree, so far.

 

[Natethegreat]

I'm curious to know why Kearly thinks he decides whats a valid argument and what isn't but thats another issue I suppose.
If the production from a running back is from a lower level college I could understand the thought but that isn't the case with Collins.
Personally I have no dog in this fight but I see Collins making this team regardless if he has a good game next week or not. They obviously liked what they saw from him in college and he brings something no other back on our roster really has.
I'm rooting for Pope but he is pretty redundant after Rawls and Michael.
I see him making our practice squad (and no I don't think any teams will be snatching him up after he's cut but if they do more power to them).
Again, he has had about 10 touches so far in preseason games(some of which he showed what he did in college as well). Its pretty silly to disregard three years of great play because of two preseason games were he hardly played.
I fully expect him to make the team this year.

 

[HawkGA]

So far, he stinks.

can't disagree, so far.

Better than Procise so far though.

 

[Natethegreat]

This article is pretty relevant to the discussion i think.

http://www.fieldgulls.com/2016/8/23/125 ... highlights

 

[ACFan]

This article is pretty relevant to the discussion i think.

http://www.fieldgulls.com/2016/8/23/125 ... highlights

good article, echos a lot of the comments I've made.

 

[dogorama]

You know I hope that AC has a couple of great games to finish out the preseason, not just for our sake, but for AC Fan who has not only been doggedly adamant in his position, but also has been such a gentleman in doing so.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

You know I hope that AC has a couple of great games to finish out the preseason, not just for our sake, but for AC Fan who has not only been doggedly adamant in his position, but also has been such a gentleman in doing so.

Agreed.

 

[Tical21]

Yes, he isn't lighting the world on fire yet, but the talent is there. I think his time in the SEC means a lot more than a few preseason carries.

I'm trusting the coaches have a better handle on this than we do, from what they have witnessed in practice up until now.


I wish I could pull up the hard stats to demonstrate this, but if you look at the power 5 conferences the past 40 years, and look at how many times a back started as a true freshman, ran for over 1,000 yards their first 3 years, then went pro. you'd probably be looking at a list of 10-12 guys.

From the SEC, there was Herschel Walker and Darren McFadden, Adrian Peterson (Big12) did it in the mid 2000s.

I don't know how long a list it would be, but I'd bet over 90%, if not 100% of the guys on that list were/are multi-year starters in the NFL.

Alex Collins makes that list, and if he really has that talent level (I believe he does) then the coaches won't let him get away, but they really need to give him a good chance to show it these next two weeks.

I bet the number is closer to 50. Biakabatuka? Mike Hart? Lendale White? Oh there is a caveat that they had to leave early. Ok, Darius Walker? De'Anthony Thomas. Maybe Greg Hill. I don't think Enis was great as a frosh. There's going to be a bunch. I'll get back to you.

 

[seatownlowdown]

its way too early to write off collins.

1st, cable and co ask a LOT from our running backs mentally, in terms of hitting the correct hole every time (ofc the hole 1/2 the time isnt where it should be), protection/blocking, receiving out of the backfield (of which ac wasnt asked to do in college) along with numerous other details to the position. it is why michael, with all his talent, has barely sniffed game action and has been cut/traded 3 times thus far into his career. take into consideration that ac might be overthinking everything, at a position that really should requires more rapid intuition > thinking.

it honestly looks like hes a step slow, hesitant right now. as time goes on and he gets all the necessary reps/confidence, the game should slow down for him and then he will be more effective, decisive. he was a decisive runner in college. what i want to see on this level is toughness, if he brings the pain, punishes defenders, finishes runs, keeps churning, gets stronger as the game goes on, etc in the same stratosphere as marshawn/ivory. we know already that he doesnt have the explosion of rawls or michael, we knew that predraft from college tape, 40 time, etc. once given adequate time, we will know if everything else comes together. those of you that expected him as starting-caliber back, with explosive runs, ability to compensate for poor oline play, or all around decisiveness/effectiveness out the gates were sadly mistaken, and that is your fault.

all this being said, CANT WAIT to see cj procise in action :snack:

 

[themunn]

I'll take Collins' first two preseason games with a pinch of salt - let's not forget that after 2 preseason games Christine Michael had 27 carries for 186 yards (6.9 YPC) and a TD, which is more carries, more yards and more TDs than he had in his entire rookie season.

Not saying Collins is a dead cert to be a star, but the most important thing isn't being able to pick up yards and third stringers through sheer athleticism and talent alone, but being able to learn and enact the scheme correctly, and rarely do RBs do it quickly - it took Lynch a year before he started producing consistently in Seattle. It's taken Michael until his 4th season. Rawls was an exception picking it up so quickly, but hopefully Collins lies somewhere between Rawls and Lynch in grasping it.

 

[ACFan]

You know I hope that AC has a couple of great games to finish out the preseason, not just for our sake, but for AC Fan who has not only been doggedly adamant in his position, but also has been such a gentleman in doing so.

Agreed.

thanks guys and gal

 

[ACFan]

I bet the number is closer to 50. Biakabatuka? Mike Hart? Lendale White? Oh there is a caveat that they had to leave early. Ok, Darius Walker? De'Anthony Thomas. Maybe Greg Hill. I don't think Enis was great as a frosh. There's going to be a bunch. I'll get back to you.

I first thought the list would be around 20. After some research I now believe it is less than 10. It's the 3 straight years of 1,000 yards or more, that's the biggest hurdle.

Going over 1,000 yards for a college RB is basically saying he didn't have a significant injury for that year.

Playing RB for 3 straight years without injury, while producing big numbers, is exceptionally rare from what we found. A demonstration of durability/production that continues on into the pros without exception. (waiting for an example that proves that wrong)

Dayne and Maroney were the only two we have found that accomplished it, who didn't end up having MAJOR NFL success, but both were 1st round draft picks, multi-year starters, who stayed in the league twice as long as your average NFL back does.

I probably should have said "major college" instead of "power 5 conference". I still don't think the number would be much bigger than 10 either way though.

If you can shed any more light on it, that'd be great!