Are we headed towards cap hell?

[Ranker777]

I see the current numbers, but they don't have Wilson and Wagner taken into account. I just don't see how what we're doing is possible.

One of, if not the highest paid QB's in NFL
Highest paid RB in NFL
One of highest paid TE's in NFL
Well paid LT
Percy and Baldwin, Kearse isn't exactly cheap
Two highly paid DE's
Mebane isn't cheap
High paid LB (Wright), Wagner also figures to be one of highest paid LB's in NFL, even Irvin's cap number is 3 million
Highest paid corner in NFL
Very highly paid safeties, Earl has to be at about the top

Why is it that other teams can only pay a handful of players, and we are seemingly paying everybody top dollar? Doesn't something have to give at some point?

I keep hearing that we have like 15 million left. Isn't Russell going to be making 20+? Isn't Wagner going to be making like 8 per? 28>15. So, sure, you backload and all that kind of stuff, but that is all going to catch up to you eventually, right?

I want scientifically motivated answers for this one for once, rather than the customary "John Schneider has it all figured out"

You seem to not understand how the cap works. Russell isn't getting 20 mil outright in 2015. Actually his cap hit will probably be around 8 mil if he is extended this off season. The Seahawks are fine now, but 2016- 2017 will be interesting to say the least.

 

[HawkFan72]

I see the current numbers, but they don't have Wilson and Wagner taken into account. I just don't see how what we're doing is possible.

One of, if not the highest paid QB's in NFL
Highest paid RB in NFL
One of highest paid TE's in NFL
Well paid LT
Percy and Baldwin, Kearse isn't exactly cheap
Two highly paid DE's
Mebane isn't cheap
High paid LB (Wright), Wagner also figures to be one of highest paid LB's in NFL, even Irvin's cap number is 3 million
Highest paid corner in NFL
Very highly paid safeties, Earl has to be at about the top

Why is it that other teams can only pay a handful of players, and we are seemingly paying everybody top dollar? Doesn't something have to give at some point?

I keep hearing that we have like 15 million left. Isn't Russell going to be making 20+? Isn't Wagner going to be making like 8 per? 28>15. So, sure, you backload and all that kind of stuff, but that is all going to catch up to you eventually, right?

I want scientifically motivated answers for this one for once, rather than the customary "John Schneider has it all figured out"

You seem to not understand how the cap works. Russell isn't getting 20 mil outright in 2015. Actually his cap hit will probably be around 8 mil if he is extended this off season. The Seahawks are fine now, but 2016- 2017 will be interesting to say the least.

David Hsu was tweeting last night that Russ AND Bobby should be able to be extended for around an $8 million cap hit for this year combined.

 

[Hawkfan77]

No, Schneider even said making the Graham trade helped the cap situation.

These guys are too smart and don't make panic moves to go into cap hell

 

[theENGLISHseahawk]

No.

Look at all the big names Denver has -- and they have plenty of cap room.

Plus Seattle will shed several big contracts over next two years including Lynch, Mebane and others.

who? Thomas, Manning, Clady, Ware, Sanders. We've got 12-15 positions we are paying top dollar to, not 6. Sorry, too lazy to look it up.

Talib, T.J. Ward, Vazquez, Von Miller, Chris Harris....

 

[mikeak]

Seattle has a lot of contracts shaped more like a bell-shaped curve. They don't backload to much on existing contracts

That is opposite what most teams are doing.

The point being you can't just compare cap space this year but you have to look at it for the future. We can basically put the money there for remaining key players and still be ok in the future based on how current contracts are structured.

They haven't even started playing the game of converting salary to signing bonus - the game that many other teams are deep deep deep in and now lack options.

And then yes - cap will keep increasing

 

[Attyla the Hawk]

It's not a terrible mystery.

Seattle doesn't overpay for many role players. Seattle commits the following:

1-4m: 9 contracts
4-6m: 5
Total (7) above 6m: 58m

Compare that to say Cincinnati who is well under the cap and healthy:

1-4m: 15
4-6m: 5
Total (5) above 6m: 45m

Or Dallas who is perilously close to the cap:

1-4m: 14
4-6m: 4
Total (4) above 6m: 59m

Teams get sideways against the cap when they do two things:

Grossly overpay stars. We have one contract north of 10m and that's Sherman. We are paying top dollar for several players, but those are generally lower contracts to begin with (safeties/RB/NT). Wagner will be similar -- MLBs don't dominate the salary lists. From a DE standpoint, we're paying Bennett and Avril about what Carolina was paying Hardy.

Pay UFA value for role players. Seattle isn't a team to spend 5m on a UFA OG. We develop and play prospects on rookie deals.

In conjunction with that, we trade out of the first round frequently. While the CBA has flattened that curve significantly, those R1 bonuses and salaries escalate much faster than 3rd through 5th round picks. Seattle doesn't have a lot of first round rookie contracts. That first round pick can cost as much as the last 5 picks in your draft alone.

Not indulging in week 1/2 of the UFA period keeps costs low. The real keys being Seattle has a top heavy salary distribution -- but it's spread across a lot of relatively modest 7m and 8m deals.

Seattle does well to spread out multiple contracts in their top tier. They also don't pay a lot with their 1-4m deals. In particular the 2m and 3m deals. We have 4 such contracts. Dallas has 6. Cincy has 9.

The key being, have a lot of 700k to 1.9m deals. Not a lot of 2.0 to 4.0m deals. And spread your top tier across as many contracts as possible.

Others on the outside see us as having seemingly limitless cap space. But in reality, we're not wasting cap space on the merely ok players. We let many go, and elevate cheap rookies. While only occasionally using UFA to spackle roster holes -- and usually doing that with week 3 UFA signings which are vet minimum type deals.

 

[Chawks1]

Overthecap.com currently shows us as having only $106m committed in salary in 2016. That counts Lynch getting 11.5m....he probably won't play past this year, IMO. So we can add another 6.5m in cap space if he doesn't play....that gets us to under 100m committed for 2016 season.

Current cap space is $143m. According to NFLPA cap should rise another 8% next year. So expect 2016 Cap to be around $155m next year.

Gives approx $55m in Cap space in 2016. We should be fine.

 

[Spleenhawk2.0]

The way we structure contracts, along with a few roster construction safeguards, I cannot see any possible way where we experience "cap hell" anytime in the next 5 years.....or at least as long as PC/JS are around. They refuse to overpay and spend out of emotion for any player or any position (though the Harvin restructure seemed puzzling).

 

[brimsalabim]

We aren't the only ones though. I heard Shefter say that Maxwell is being paid more than any one on the legion is making. It seems the cap keeps rising.

 

[-The Glove-]

JS and PC plan 2-3 years ahead. I have No doubt they have a plan in place and are following through with that.

 

[Tical21]

JS and PC plan 2-3 years ahead. I have No doubt they have a plan in place and are following through with that.

I get that, and do tend to believe that this is what is happening. I will certainly give them the benefit of the doubt, but the reality is that this is only lip service until we see it play out. We're starting to enter the area where everything is going to get much, much more difficult. They've had money to play with. Now come the really difficult decisions. Is it possible that their 2-3 year plan was to go big for a couple of years? We won't know how successful their strategy is until a few years down the road, when we are either in a pretty similar situation every year, or end up in a situation where we have to purge really good players to get under the cap. Til now, they've been able to throw money at pretty much whatever they want.

We can say they have to build through the draft, but it has been a few years since they've gotten any real production from first and second year players. They've been content to just pay to keep the vets in their places.

I don't like the idea of backloading all of these upcoming contracts. That is how teams like the Saints and Cowboys got into their nightmares. I could be wrong. But I see Russ and Wagner out there and 14 million left in cap space, and a few holes yet to fill, and that math just isn't adding up.

 

[Scottemojo]

JS and PC plan 2-3 years ahead. I have No doubt they have a plan in place and are following through with that.

I get that, and do tend to believe that this is what is happening. I will certainly give them the benefit of the doubt, but the reality is that this is only lip service until we see it play out. We're starting to enter the area where everything is going to get much, much more difficult. They've had money to play with. Now come the really difficult decisions. Is it possible that their 2-3 year plan was to go big for a couple of years? We won't know how successful their strategy is until a few years down the road, when we are either in a pretty similar situation every year, or end up in a situation where we have to purge really good players to get under the cap. Til now, they've been able to throw money at pretty much whatever they want.

We can say they have to build through the draft, but it has been a few years since they've gotten any real production from first and second year players. They've been content to just pay to keep the vets in their places.

I don't like the idea of backloading all of these upcoming contracts. That is how teams like the Saints and Cowboys got into their nightmares. I could be wrong. But I see Russ and Wagner out there and 14 million left in cap space, and a few holes yet to fill, and that math just isn't adding up.

5 years of fiscal prudence should count for some amount of good faith, right?

 

[Tical21]

JS and PC plan 2-3 years ahead. I have No doubt they have a plan in place and are following through with that.

I get that, and do tend to believe that this is what is happening. I will certainly give them the benefit of the doubt, but the reality is that this is only lip service until we see it play out. We're starting to enter the area where everything is going to get much, much more difficult. They've had money to play with. Now come the really difficult decisions. Is it possible that their 2-3 year plan was to go big for a couple of years? We won't know how successful their strategy is until a few years down the road, when we are either in a pretty similar situation every year, or end up in a situation where we have to purge really good players to get under the cap. Til now, they've been able to throw money at pretty much whatever they want.

We can say they have to build through the draft, but it has been a few years since they've gotten any real production from first and second year players. They've been content to just pay to keep the vets in their places.

I don't like the idea of backloading all of these upcoming contracts. That is how teams like the Saints and Cowboys got into their nightmares. I could be wrong. But I see Russ and Wagner out there and 14 million left in cap space, and a few holes yet to fill, and that math just isn't adding up.

5 years of fiscal prudence should count for some amount of good faith, right?

Why do you feel they'e been fiscally prudent? Throwing money at Whitehurst, Flynn, Harvin, Rice, Gallery, etc. Paying top dollar to keep almost all of their own guys. Hasn't exactly been the most difficult checkbook to balance.

 

[onanygivensunday]

I don't like the idea of backloading all of these upcoming contracts.

I don't have the sense that Seattle is back-loading contracts.

Do you have examples of egregious back-loading?

 

[Hasselbeck]

I see the current numbers, but they don't have Wilson and Wagner taken into account. I just don't see how what we're doing is possible.

One of, if not the highest paid QB's in NFL
Highest paid RB in NFL
One of highest paid TE's in NFL
Well paid LT
Percy and Baldwin, Kearse isn't exactly cheap
Two highly paid DE's
Mebane isn't cheap
High paid LB (Wright), Wagner also figures to be one of highest paid LB's in NFL, even Irvin's cap number is 3 million
Highest paid corner in NFL
Very highly paid safeties, Earl has to be at about the top

Why is it that other teams can only pay a handful of players, and we are seemingly paying everybody top dollar? Doesn't something have to give at some point?

I keep hearing that we have like 15 million left. Isn't Russell going to be making 20+? Isn't Wagner going to be making like 8 per? 28>15. So, sure, you backload and all that kind of stuff, but that is all going to catch up to you eventually, right?

I want scientifically motivated answers for this one for once, rather than the customary "John Schneider has it all figured out"

Lynch will be off the books in 2016 more than likely.. I think this is his last year one way or the other.

Graham's deal is very cap friendly all things considered.. and Pandion did a great write-up on how to make it even better cap wise

Really don't think Okung is going to get a new deal

Percy's salary is over and done with after this year. Baldwin's is cheap. Kearse is gone after this year

Mebane is probably nearing the end of his tenure here, much like Unger was

Because of these salaries coming off the books.. Wilson, Wagner, Irvin, etc will all fit in. The guys in the secondary all have reworkable deals.

We're not the Saints.. or the Redskins.. etc. They know exactly what they are doing. Salary cap hell will not be a problem with this team whatsoever.

 

[onanygivensunday]

What Hass said.

 

[Tical21]

I don't like the idea of backloading all of these upcoming contracts.

I don't have the sense that Seattle is back-loading contracts.

Do you have examples of egregious back-loading?

Don't they kind of have to with Wilson and Wagner? They barely have enough room for half of a year of Wilson alone if the don't.

 

[Tical21]

I see the current numbers, but they don't have Wilson and Wagner taken into account. I just don't see how what we're doing is possible.

One of, if not the highest paid QB's in NFL
Highest paid RB in NFL
One of highest paid TE's in NFL
Well paid LT
Percy and Baldwin, Kearse isn't exactly cheap
Two highly paid DE's
Mebane isn't cheap
High paid LB (Wright), Wagner also figures to be one of highest paid LB's in NFL, even Irvin's cap number is 3 million
Highest paid corner in NFL
Very highly paid safeties, Earl has to be at about the top

Why is it that other teams can only pay a handful of players, and we are seemingly paying everybody top dollar? Doesn't something have to give at some point?

I keep hearing that we have like 15 million left. Isn't Russell going to be making 20+? Isn't Wagner going to be making like 8 per? 28>15. So, sure, you backload and all that kind of stuff, but that is all going to catch up to you eventually, right?

I want scientifically motivated answers for this one for once, rather than the customary "John Schneider has it all figured out"

Lynch will be off the books in 2016 more than likely.. I think this is his last year one way or the other.

Graham's deal is very cap friendly all things considered.. and Pandion did a great write-up on how to make it even better cap wise

Really don't think Okung is going to get a new deal

Percy's salary is over and done with after this year. Baldwin's is cheap. Kearse is gone after this year

Mebane is probably nearing the end of his tenure here, much like Unger was

Because of these salaries coming off the books.. Wilson, Wagner, Irvin, etc will all fit in. The guys in the secondary all have reworkable deals.

We're not the Saints.. or the Redskins.. etc. They know exactly what they are doing. Salary cap hell will not be a problem with this team whatsoever.

That is a lot of talent leaving. Being without any LT's or DT's is a scary thought. If Lynch is decent this year, I can't see any circumstance besides personal or behavior reasons where he isn't around in 2016.

 

[Scottemojo]

JS and PC plan 2-3 years ahead. I have No doubt they have a plan in place and are following through with that.

I get that, and do tend to believe that this is what is happening. I will certainly give them the benefit of the doubt, but the reality is that this is only lip service until we see it play out. We're starting to enter the area where everything is going to get much, much more difficult. They've had money to play with. Now come the really difficult decisions. Is it possible that their 2-3 year plan was to go big for a couple of years? We won't know how successful their strategy is until a few years down the road, when we are either in a pretty similar situation every year, or end up in a situation where we have to purge really good players to get under the cap. Til now, they've been able to throw money at pretty much whatever they want.

We can say they have to build through the draft, but it has been a few years since they've gotten any real production from first and second year players. They've been content to just pay to keep the vets in their places.

I don't like the idea of backloading all of these upcoming contracts. That is how teams like the Saints and Cowboys got into their nightmares. I could be wrong. But I see Russ and Wagner out there and 14 million left in cap space, and a few holes yet to fill, and that math just isn't adding up.

5 years of fiscal prudence should count for some amount of good faith, right?

Why do you feel they'e been fiscally prudent? Throwing money at Whitehurst, Flynn, Harvin, Rice, Gallery, etc. Paying top dollar to keep almost all of their own guys. Hasn't exactly been the most difficult checkbook to balance.

They inherited Houshmanzadeh, Curry, Branch, among others and got rid of that dead weight. They took rebuilding swings and misses, for sure. But never went free agent wild. 2nd off season after a SB win and they had a few mil to rollover. Got Avril and Bennett on the cheap in a down market. Even now, here they are not going after a bunch of free agents, instead protecting future compensatory picks, which are clearly cheaper than the free agents signings that would eliminate them. I may not love the trade that just went down, but it too protects those future compensatory picks. And to date, they took very good advantage of having a cheap starting QB.

All while fielding what is now a 3 year SB contender. And 5-1 vegas favorites for a 4th. The Hawks are living within their means, cap wise. Which is fiscally responsible.

 

[kearly]

Seattle had an estimated $29 million in space this year after the cap/rollover was announced and before the Lynch extension. The Lynch deal didn't change his 2015 cap hit, and the net cap hit from the Graham/Unger and Williams deals combined only added about $9 million in cap hits for this year.

Add to this the fact that the cap expansion next year will pay for Wagner by itself, and you have a picture where everything fits together pretty well. There's also a significant amount of Harvin's dead money that comes off the books soon. And as others have said, you'll have players retiring or being released in 2016 and 2017 which will free up the money Seattle needs to add even better players.

As long as JS is running the show, I don't think we will ever reach cap hell. He always views the teams cap and draft in three year windows. Some years he's frugal, some years he splurges. It's not because he's impulsive, but because he plans out specific times to spend and not to spend based on value or seeking out difficult to obtain pieces.