Could we have beaten these Broncos?

[McGruff]

I'm with Kearly on this....

I think Seattle would have lost a close game. Denver's defense was truly Elite. Seattle's defense, while good, was by no means elite. I'm rehashing some similar points, but they really did struggle against good offenses. From a statistical standpoint, those struggles were masked by dominating some really poor offenses (which to their credit, still means something).

It's a stupid analogy, but I equate it to the kid who hits .400 in high school baseball, but was 0-15 against the top pitchers in the league. Sure, he's a good hitter because he he hit 400, but you can't say he was elite as he couldn't hit good pitching.

If Denver defense was elite, and Seattle's was statistically better oversion the course of the season, what does that make Seattle's defense?

I agree we were a little bipolar, but I am certain you can find games on Denver schedule where they also underperformed defensively. But they saved their best effort for last.

I guess the answer to this question for me comes down to two questions.

1. If both defenses are playing at their best, who do you take?

2. If it comes down to a last minute drive to win the game, who do you want with the ball? Peyton or Wilson?

 

[Alexander]

I'm with Kearly on this....

I think Seattle would have lost a close game. Denver's defense was truly Elite. Seattle's defense, while good, was by no means elite. I'm rehashing some similar points, but they really did struggle against good offenses. From a statistical standpoint, those struggles were masked by dominating some really poor offenses (which to their credit, still means something).

It's a stupid analogy, but I equate it to the kid who hits .400 in high school baseball, but was 0-15 against the top pitchers in the league. Sure, he's a good hitter because he he hit 400, but you can't say he was elite as he couldn't hit good pitching.

There is some truth to the idea that Seattle's defense struggled against good offenses. I think it's a bit overblown, but even if we grant that it's true, Denver's offense this year was awful. It was exactly the sort of offense you would expect the Hawks D to dominate. By DVOA, Seattle's D wasn't much different than Carolina's (actually a bit better by weighted DVOA). And Carolina's defense had no trouble destroying Denver's offense. The question is whether you think the Hawks offense would have been disastrous (like Carolina's) or merely bad. I lean towards bad, though it's certainly a debatable point. Also keep in mind that Denver won the special teams battle, and this was arguably the difference in an otherwise close game. Denver's ranking on special teams (by DVOA) was 14th, versus 23rd for Carolina. Seattle was 3rd. So a clear advantage for Denver would have been a clear advantage for Seattle.

 

[purpleneer]

I predicted Carolina would be held to 13 points and lose, they ended up being held to 10 and losing badly. By that same token, I would have probably predicted Seattle to score less than 20 and probably lose a very close game. There's just something about historically elite defenses come playoff time, never pick against them.

It's a reminder of the kind of rewards that come with having a very special defense. I hope Pete was watching closely.

I don't want to be the idiot that says Denver didn't have a great defense, but they had 3 postseason matchups that certainly helped them look good. They likely lose the first one if the morons don't let Peyton slide down and get up to throw for a big play.
A matchup with the Hawks would probably come down to which Bevell shows up, but I would've been confident. Carolina sure didn't put their best foot forward (more Cam runs and creative action) and without Benjamin for the year, they had nothing on the outside to help deal with the pressure. They overachieved on the year, but offensively was quite flawed in the perfect ways for Denver.

 

[Scottemojo]

It isn't likely.

 

[evergreen]

Our offense woulda come back in that game imo. That game looked like some of our first halves this year.. difference being we have a mentally strong and more talented throwing qb who can keep his head right and take it one play at a time and forget the last play.. something newton has displayed his entire career he is not capable of.

That's what everyone forgets. We'd get our butts kicked for a half. But unlike carolina. We'd come roaring back. That's when it would get interesting. Doubt we'd give up three scoring drives and two red one tos. We win in a comeback.

 

[kearly]

It's a close game that I would probably have us winning 6/10 times. Maybe 50/50. Our offense is miles better than Denver's...

But so was Carolina's... Carolina led the NFL in points scored.

Denver played three of the top five offenses in the NFL during their postseason run, and shut them all down.

People are saying that Denver's pass rush would annihilate our OL and at times it would. Thing is, I think we run on their DL better than we could on Carolina's.

Seattle's OL would have been annihilated in pass pro (more on that later), but running would have been just as difficult. Denver's run D ranked #1 (for the second year in a row) in rush yardage allowed per game. Marshawn Lynch was ineffective in 2015 and looked like he was playing out the string vs. Carolina.

On the other side, Okung has played well against Ware, going back to Ware's Cowboys days when he was younger. I don't think he gets owned nearly as bad as the Panthers' LT.

Okung would have been on IR. Okung dislocated his shoulder so badly that it did ligament damage and required surgery. It would have been Gilliam at LT and Britt at RT, vs. Ware and Miller. Literally the worst pass blocking duo vs. the best pass rusher duo. In the NFL.

Carolina's tackles over-achieved in 2015 that much is true, but the overall performance of the OL up until the final game of 2015 was outstanding. Seattle's pass rush is top 10, and Newton had all day to throw against it. I personally think PFF is deeply flawed, but they rated Carolina's OL 2nd in the NFL and my personal eyeball test would have said top 5 was fair.

And that group got OWNED by Denver's pass rush. And in the AFC Championship, Tom Brady, a master of getting the ball out quick, was hit more than any QB had been hit in 10 years. Not just in the playoffs. Any game in the past 10 years. That's a span of roughly 2700 games, and to a QB well known for his ability to avoid hits.

Now, imagine basically the ~68th and ~70th ranked pass blocking tackles taking that on. And if that isn't ridiculous enough, those other teams Denver's pass rush destroyed had real blocking TEs to help in case they needed to go 'bunker mentality', whereas Seattle's available TEs are all terrible in pass pro.

Lastly, I think our WR's are going to play better than Carolina's did. Baldwin has had good games against Talib and has really upped his game this year. Lockett on the other side also is a bit of a mismatch. I like Harris and he's a good CB, but Lockett moved into the slot is a mismatch on most CB's right now. I'm not saying our WR's dominate, especially with limited time against that pass rush, but they'll do better than Carolina's, and Talib has shown a bit of a weakness to quicker WR's like Baldwin and Lockett.

That's interesting to think about. Bryant and Wheaton couldn't do anything against that secondary. Edelman and Gronk couldn't do anything against them either. I think Seattle would probably have posed the stiffest challenge in that Kearse vs. their 3rd corner would probably be a win for Kearse. But that being said, it was a better secondary than any Seattle had ever faced in the current era, so it would have been really, really tough.

I just look at the culmination of all these factors and I see what would have been the most difficult game ever played for Seattle's offense. The ghost of Lynch likely would have done nothing against that run D. The lack of a running game would greatly reduce the effectiveness of play-action. Seattle wouldn't have the time needed to hold the ball to look deep. This would allow the Broncos to bring their safeties up and play the entire field like it was the red zone. We've all seen how much trouble the Rams have given Seattle and Denver was like a super charged version of the Rams.

Seattle would probably connect on a handful of big pass plays, maybe one of those for every five times Wilson gets his teeth jarred loose. I don't think Seattle would be shut out, and I could see them winning, just not more than 50% of the time.

On paper, Seattle is a much better team than Denver. But saying that they should win for that reason only is overly simplistic. The thing about historic defenses is that they tend to re-write the rules of how a game should go. Many previous SB's have shown the same lesson, including SB48.

If Graham, Richardson, Rawls, and Okung had all been healthy, I'd probably feel okay with giving Seattle a 50/50 chance. It would have been enough weapons to keep Denver's D on their toes just enough. But those guys' weren't available, so it would have been a lot, lot tougher.

 

[NINEster]

Really at no point this season did Newton impress me by beating a good defense that was playing their best. Seattle was hamstrung defensively in both their games against Carolina as was Arizona. And neither of those defenses, even at their best in 2015, would hold a candle to the 2015 Denver D. Which is why I correctly predicted Newton would get his ass kicked in the SB. He simply hasn't had success against an elite D firing on all cylinders before.

Cam was a product of his OL and run game. His maturity level wasn't quite where it needed to be.

Not sure much has changed since 2013, except the team around him getting a lot better.

 

[Scottemojo]

We could not beat the Rams. Denver D was even better.

case closed.

 

[johnnyfever]

We could not beat the Rams. Denver D was even better.

case closed.

Actually we DIDN'T beat the rams, not couldn't. I think we had to play as bad as we did to lose

But,

Your point is still very valid.

 

[onepicknick]

I watched the game again and Denver's D reminded me of our D in SB 48. Short passes guy's getting throttled run is non existence we never got to Manning as much as Carolina's D but the threat was there. Interesting Kubiak would not let Manning lose that game for them because he sure could of.

I hope Carroll goes back to defense instead of offense Defense wins Championships