Geno Isn't the Guy. Sad to Say (Main)

[pittpnthrs]

What if I told you that analytics seek to remove the player from the situation to provide a more accurate representation of that player's performance? That's literally why they exist.

Naming players tells us nothing about a player's ability or talent. For example, Courtland Sutton was a Pro Bowl receiver before Russ arrived, but you didn't name him earlier. So using fan recognition as a tool for evaluation is silly.

Its all good. Its a gray area I understand. Lets just both agree that Wilsons best years are definitely behind him and regardless of how anybody personally feels about Geno, he is the QB for the team we both root for and we both wish him the best.

PS - I've never even heard of Courtland Sutton before. Thats why I never mentioned him.

 

[Bear-Hawk]

In today's game, Geno did the same things many folks on here are complaining about his predecessor. This was a very winnable game that the Seahawks lost due to Geno Smith. He was horrific in the redzone.

That’s not what I saw. The whole offense — not just Geno — needs to play a lot better in the red zone. If the OL provides better protection and receivers get separation, Geno will find them. But also let’s not ignore all those running plays with Walker where the blocking broke down. With just half decent blocking, he can score.

 

[Fade]

What if I told you that analytics seek to remove the player from the situation to provide a more accurate representation of that player's performance? That's literally why they exist.

Naming players tells us nothing about a player's ability or talent. For example, Courtland Sutton was a Pro Bowl receiver before Russ arrived, but you didn't name him earlier. So using fan recognition as a tool for evaluation is silly.

Which analytics?

Film will tell a million times more, though. That's why the players, coaches, and personnel people watch film all week, or should be at least.

Analytics are great for the draft, giving overviews for teams (still have to watch the film to find out why.), finding a money-ball edge in certain areas that are undervalued, And some decisions in a football game like whether to go for it or not.

Watching Geno stare down his first read, miss open guys, throw into double coverage, get the ball out late, run himself into sacks, etc.

QB is too complicated of a position to boil down to merely numbers. Unless they are putting up great numbers for a sustained period of time, then it's a no brainer at that point. They are producing.
It's why the flawed career passer rating will tell you who the best QBs of all-time are. They produced for a sustained period of time. (It now should be broken down into eras, due to the rules softening up, as its slants towards newer players.)

Geno's numbers since TB last year, (14 games), Are mediocre and trending down, why?

Put on the film and you'll see what I listed above.

Geno started 6-2, and was playing like a top 3 QB last year to start the season.. He was putting up numbers up to that point that only MVPs had ever done. He got me on the bandwagon included, and I am guy that's hard to win over.

Since then he's 6-8, trending downward. He's on pace to only throw 17 TDs for this season. Terrible in the red zone (was last year as well, but has gotten worse.)

He has the talent to play better is the silver lining. He led the league last year in big time throws, he is accurate, he is a leader, but he simply needs to start playing better. He has too much around him to be this underwhelming.

The O-Line isn't an excuse because I saw him play a whale of a game in DET without one.

 

[12forlife]

Geno got rid of the ball quick against Detroit. This was against a blitz happy team too. He was more mobile that game too.

Because he had one game where he held the ball too long, does not make it a tendency, like Russ Wilson.

Is this the 1st game you have watched? Geno can't read through his progressions. Fix on 1 WR then it's scramble or sack. Geno is just a NFL backup, not a top 10 starter.

 

[knownone]

Which analytics?

Film will tell a million times more, though. That's why the players, coaches, and personnel people watch film all week, or should be at least.

Analytics are great for the draft, giving overviews for teams (still have to watch the film to find out why.), finding a money-ball edge in certain areas that are undervalued, And some decisions in a football game like whether to go for it or not.

Watching Geno stare down his first read, miss open guys, throw into double coverage, get the ball out late, run himself into sacks, etc.

QB is too complicated of a position to boil down to merely numbers. Unless they are putting up great numbers for a sustained period of time, then it's a no brainer at that point. They are producing.
It's why the flawed career passer rating will tell you who the best QBs of all-time are. They produced for a sustained period of time. (It now should be broken down into eras, due to the rules softening up, as its slants towards newer players.)

Geno's numbers since TB last year, (14 games), Are mediocre and trending down, why?

Put on the film and you'll see what I listed above.

Geno started 6-2, and was playing like a top 3 QB last year to start the season.. He was putting up numbers up to that point that only MVPs had ever done. He got me on the bandwagon included, and I am guy that's hard to win over.

Since then he's 6-8, trending downward. He's on pace to only throw 17 TDs for this season. Terrible in the red zone (was last year as well, but has gotten worse.)

He has the talent to play better is the silver lining. He led the league last year in big time throws, he is accurate, he is a leader, but he simply needs to start playing better. He has too much around him to be this underwhelming.

The O-Line isn't an excuse because I saw him play a whale of a game in DET without one.

I've listed several analytics throughout this thread. For example, CPOE, Success Rate, QB Pressure/SA (both QB and O-Line), QBR, etc... I've even listed metrics that rely exclusively on film study, such as PFF (where Geno is in the top 10).

No one said the QB position could be boiled down to merely numbers. What's happening is that Geno has a lot of evidence suggesting he's not the problem. And the argument back contains almost no objective measures that show he's playing poorly. Instead, they rely on quasi-related stats that don't capture QB performance or skill, such as wins/losses, total TDs, etc.

Now, let's use Red Zone efficiency to evaluate QBs. First, take three QBs with a worse RZ efficiency than Seattle: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, and Trevor Lawrence. Second, take three QBs with a higher efficiency: Desmond Ridder, Justin Fields, and Sam Howell. Finally, conclude from your analysis: Ridder, Fields, and Howell are playing better than Hurts, Prescott, and Lawrence. Does that seem accurate? Not really. So, what does RZ efficiency tell us about a quarterback's performance? Not much. It's worth considering, but it relies on a small sample size and is not a great predictor.

Finally, you're holding Geno to an entirely subjective standard: He played well against the Lions with a bad O-Line; therefore, the O-Line is not a valid reason for Geno's struggles. That's not a logical argument. Just because a player performed well in one specific game with a bad O-Line doesn't mean that a bad O-Line can't be a valid concern or excuse in other situations or games.

 

[Bear-Hawk]

I've listed several analytics throughout this thread. For example, CPOE, Success Rate, QB Pressure/SA (both QB and O-Line), QBR, etc... I've even listed metrics that rely exclusively on film study, such as PFF (where Geno is in the top 10).

No one said the QB position could be boiled down to merely numbers. What's happening is that Geno has a lot of evidence suggesting he's not the problem. And the argument back contains almost no objective measures that show he's playing poorly. Instead, they rely on quasi-related stats that don't capture QB performance or skill, such as wins/losses, total TDs, etc.

Now, let's use Red Zone efficiency to evaluate QBs. First, take three QBs with a worse RZ efficiency than Seattle: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, and Trevor Lawrence. Second, take three QBs with a higher efficiency: Desmond Ridder, Justin Fields, and Sam Howell. Finally, conclude from your analysis: Ridder, Fields, and Howell are playing better than Hurts, Prescott, and Lawrence. Does that seem accurate? Not really. So, what does RZ efficiency tell us about a quarterback's performance? Not much. It's worth considering, but it relies on a small sample size and is not a great predictor.

Finally, you're holding Geno to an entirely subjective standard: He played well against the Lions with a bad O-Line; therefore, the O-Line is not a valid reason for Geno's struggles. That's not a logical argument. Just because a player performed well in one specific game with a bad O-Line doesn't mean that a bad O-Line can't be a valid concern or excuse in other situations or games.

Excellent! Red zone success/failure is a team effort, not just the QB. Does anybody believe the injuries to the offensive line, especially Cross and Lucas, hasn’t affected the offense? The red zone play calling is another thing that also deserves attention.

 

[hoxrox]

Is this the 1st game you have watched? Geno can't read through his progressions. Fix on 1 WR then it's scramble or sack. Geno is just a NFL backup, not a top 10 starter.

Don't agree, but thanks for posting.

 

[Lagartixa]

What happened? Lol. He was clearly wrong. Not about the defense or maybe even the Oline, but weapons? That's laughable and any sports, football pundit would agree as its obvious. Who does he have? Wilson went where he would have the most input and clearest line to a big payday. Saying all the right things doesnt change that fact.

You say that now, but at the time, people saw the Broncos' receivers and running backs as a strong and on-the-rise group. As with the franchise as a whole, all it took to completely ruin that was bringing in a guy who gets paid like one of the top quarterbacks in the league, but has performed so far as something between a middle-third-of-the-league guy like he's been for the first third of this season and a bottom-five-in-the-league starter like he was last season.

The "weapons" look weak now because they've been playing with weak QBs.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Hawks 24, Cards 16

 

[olyfan63]

I suspect there is now a book out on "the New Geno", Geno 2.0, and how to defend him. For example, types of coverages to run to take away his first read, schemes for taking away his safety valve receiver. Teams watch film and notice tendencies like how to read his eyes, and basically delay him finding a receiver just long enough to allow pressure to get to him and fluster him

The NFL took a lot longer than usual to develop and share a "book" on Russell because Russell's elite elusiveness and ability to pull a play out of his a$$ defeated many a defensive scheme for the first 7-8 years of his career. Tho the Jeff Fisher Rams got the book on Russell down nearly right away, and had the PLAYERS to pull off a Russell-defeating defensive scheme. (Aaron Donald, and Robert Quinn, anyone?) Most other teams didn't have the players, the horses, to fully corral and frustrate Russell.

My point is that the book on Geno, v2.0, is out, for what, the last 14 games now, and teams understand how to frustrate him. Now it's up to Geno, along with Waldron, and QB coach Greg Olson, to adjust the offense and playcalling, and train Geno in better reads to defeat what defenses are trying to do to him, and generally help him become Geno 3.0 and be highly successful again. (Geno 1.0 is the Jets and pre-Seahawks Geno)

If you were a DC, how would you game-plan to frustrate and defeat Geno? What did X's and O's guys here see about what the Bengals did to frustrate Geno? What does Geno need to do to develop as a QB to overcome the "book" that is out on him?

 

[Yxes1122]

If you were a DC, how would you game-plan to frustrate and defeat Geno? What did X's and O's guys here see about what the Bengals did to frustrate Geno? What does Geno need to do to develop as a QB to overcome the "book" that is out on him?

Seattle Overload did a tape breakdown of every Redzone play to answer that question.

This was a live recording, so they riff for the first 10-15 minutes waiting for people to join the stream but it’s very enlightening when they get into the tape.

 

[AROS]

I suspect there is now a book out on "the New Geno", Geno 2.0, and how to defend him. For example, types of coverages to run to take away his first read, schemes for taking away his safety valve receiver. Teams watch film and notice tendencies like how to read his eyes, and basically delay him finding a receiver just long enough to allow pressure to get to him and fluster him

The NFL took a lot longer than usual to develop and share a "book" on Russell because Russell's elite elusiveness and ability to pull a play out of his a$$ defeated many a defensive scheme for the first 7-8 years of his career. Tho the Jeff Fisher Rams got the book on Russell down nearly right away, and had the PLAYERS to pull off a Russell-defeating defensive scheme. (Aaron Donald, and Robert Quinn, anyone?) Most other teams didn't have the players, the horses, to fully corral and frustrate Russell.

My point is that the book on Geno, v2.0, is out, for what, the last 14 games now, and teams understand how to frustrate him. Now it's up to Geno, along with Waldron, and QB coach Greg Olson, to adjust the offense and playcalling, and train Geno in better reads to defeat what defenses are trying to do to him, and generally help him become Geno 3.0 and be highly successful again. (Geno 1.0 is the Jets and pre-Seahawks Geno)

If you were a DC, how would you game-plan to frustrate and defeat Geno? What did X's and O's guys here see about what the Bengals did to frustrate Geno? What does Geno need to do to develop as a QB to overcome the "book" that is out on him?

The book is definitely out. As a NON X's and O's guy, my penny's worth is quick drop backs, quick outs, slants, dink and dunk their asses. If the running game is effective, then play action will be as well. The big killer to my eyes is the deep drop backs into sacks as he waits for the play to develop or find his second or third read. I would like to see them implement more bootleg options. Getting out of that collapsing pocket even a second earlier could be the difference between being sacked 4 or 5 times a game or once or twice.

 

[LTH]

Is this the 1st game you have watched? Geno can't read through his progressions. Fix on 1 WR then it's scramble or sack. Geno is just a NFL backup, not a top 10 starter.

The assertion that Geno is a back up QB IS FLAWED and a knee jerk reaction to an emotional loss pure and simple. Yes it v wasn't a pro bowl performance.

In this game the O line, almost every single player was playing hurt.... they just didnt play well at all. Some see this as an excuse but in reality it's just the truth.

Watch the film! Geno For the most part made good decisions because the amount of pressure he was under he should have taken 7 or 8 sacks. It was because of his athletic ability and decision making that he didnt.

Geno missed a couple wide open receiver's and I really don't know why that happened. He was under pressure all day I personally think that after a QB has taken visious hits as Geno was taking, I think he was shaken a bit and rightly so. That doesn't mean that he is a back up QB. It means that he got his ass kicked and he will regroup and fight another day. Believe it or not it happens in the NFL!

Two weeks ago we were getting knee jerk reactions to the D not pressuring. The problem is some people don't get it, they don't see the big picture and this happens all the time. Knee jerk reactions to emotional losses. Just be patient and give the Hawks a chance to work out the issues.

LTH

 

[knownone]

It's hard to pinpoint the cause of our offensive struggles when we're rotating through the O-Line every game.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

True but that isn't saying much. My largest issue with Geno is that contract because I already knew he was league average and meant to be a bridge quarterback. But like with the safeties the lost their minds with that contract.

The utter mismanagement of the cap is something that isn't discussed nearly enough.

Geno's cap hit is only 10M this year, I'd say that's pretty good cap management. If we're comparing to Murray and Cousins, their's is 17M and 20M respectively with MUCH higher dead cap hits.

If this was next year when Geno's cap hit jumps way up? Then yeah, this is a relevant conversation as to whether he's playing well enough to soak up that much cap.

But it's not next year.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

It's hard to pinpoint the cause of our offensive struggles when we're rotating through the O-Line every game.

I'd say it's 80-90% line protection issues.......and run blocking if we're including the mediocre run game.

They held it together somehow in the Lions game, but it's been deteriorating with each passing game since, and is still a MASH unit. The entire line is on the injury report this week. So it sure doesn't look like it's getting better.

 

[knownone]

I'd say it's 80-90% line protection issues.......and run blocking if we're including the mediocre run game.

They held it together somehow in the Lions game, but it's been deteriorating with each passing game since, and is still a MASH unit. The entire line is on the injury report this week. So it sure doesn't look like it's getting better.

I agree. We haven't run the ball consistently, and that's probably the line's fault as well.

The Lions game is an excellent example of how much Geno is making up for our offensive woes. He had a CPOE of +18%, which is absolutely insane.

 

[renofox]

vs. Bengals



vs. Bengals, passes over 10 yards beyond line of scrimmage:

6/14, 0 TD, 2 INT

That cannot be blamed solely on poor line play.

 

[LTH]

It's hard to pinpoint the cause of our offensive struggles when we're rotating through the O-Line every game.

Isn't that the exact problem?

LTH

 

[Slick]

He’s the guy. He’s hurt. Something with his leg. His starting line is in various stages of physical rehab. Be patient.