If you can only sign two? Checking the temp of .NET

[Seymour]

To me it's simple: You don't pay good/not great talent top dollar.

Russell and Bobby are great. Clark is good (even very good).

Clark in trade is going to net you the second best return of the three. And Seattle should be able to draft at least an immediate successor this year, with even a developmental project later. So of the three positions, the draft dictates that DE/pass rusher will be by far the easiest to find a comparable talent.

The expectation from the Clark camp in terms of contract value is just too high. Clearly it's borne from the expectation that Seattle will be unable to tag him next year and he'll end up being a prized UFA in a less stellar draft class. There is little motivation for him to sign for less. Seattle is in a difficult bind and should get out from under the cap stress.

This. I don't go beyond $18M for Clark. After that I say goodbye. Not paying elite money to a guy that is not elite just because he had a good year and his number is up. I would also be careful with re-signing Wagner, that could bite us also since 3rd contracts at top $$ are very high risk (considering his position).

 

[Attyla the Hawk]

The fact that Clark's not quite elite ignores positional value. Clark pays a more important position and is one of two or three legitimate pass rushers we need along the line. One high pick at the position is unlikely to be anything more than a lateral move for the next two years, and I have little confidence in any of the projects currently on the team.

Wagner, on the other hand, while exceeding the value of his position by a significant margin, is older and can be immediately replaced by Mychal Kendricks (I'm assuming Seattle would not have signed him without some confidence that he'll be available).

When I speak of top dollar, positional value is already baked in. Clark wants elite DE money. Wagner is older and at a less valued position. His contract is roughly half of what Clark is seeking. That already factors in position.

Given all relative factors: Positional contract value, ease of replacement and potential return in trade -- opting to trade Clark makes more sense.

Obviously the defense hurts losing either Wagner or Clark. But the premise of the exercise is "Have to lose one". Given that, I would advocate trading Clark. Resigning Wagner at or near his current contract is expected. And then freeing the tag for 2019 with Wilson (assuming no extension) is now a possibility.

A Clark trade affords the ability to reload in a year with a historic talent pool. A Wagner trade may not return much -- even though the team is in a tenuous position to absorb the loss with talent already on the roster. Kendricks/Wright raise significant injury risk and would necessitate picking up LB talent. This pool in the draft is quite poor.

I definitely don't see a scenario where Clark and Wilson are both extended this year. And if Wilson isn't extended this year, then there is little chance or motivation on his end to extend in 2020 or 2021. It's a tough decision -- but the way the dominoes stack up here -- the best of a bad situation is to move Clark -- reload at DE (maybe twice?) and extend Wilson and/or Wagner with cap reserves that would have been allocated to Clark.

Keeping Clark, IMO, also implies an inability to extend Wilson. And if we're tagging Wilson, then basically we're ok with losing him for a comp pick in three years. Lose Clark, and you have the ability to extend both and still have a tag free to use with Jarran Reed next year.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

I wonder if I'm in the minority here. I like Clark, but to me it still feels early to call him a GREAT player. He's very good, but I just don't see him on that same level as guys that are at the top of their position. If a good trade offer comes in, it would be hard to say no to it.

 

[niveky]

If Clark decides not to sign the Franchise Tag tender he isn't getting traded anywhere, right?

 

[sdog1981]

Salary cap leagues have a different type of math. Is it worth it to have one DE at 20 million per season or is there more value in two DE's priced around 7-12 million per year? The Pats let dline talent walk because they know they can scheme pressure with blitz packages. The Pete Cover 3 D? Seems like it needs a really talented Dline to work because it is dependant on 4 man Dline pressure. Same way the Colts Cover 2 needed Mathis and Freeny to work.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

The fact that Clark's not quite elite ignores positional value. Clark pays a more important position and is one of two or three legitimate pass rushers we need along the line. One high pick at the position is unlikely to be anything more than a lateral move for the next two years, and I have little confidence in any of the projects currently on the team.

Wagner, on the other hand, while exceeding the value of his position by a significant margin, is older and can be immediately replaced by Mychal Kendricks (I'm assuming Seattle would not have signed him without some confidence that he'll be available).

When I speak of top dollar, positional value is already baked in. Clark wants elite DE money. Wagner is older and at a less valued position. His contract is roughly half of what Clark is seeking. That already factors in position.

Given all relative factors: Positional contract value, ease of replacement and potential return in trade -- opting to trade Clark makes more sense.

Obviously the defense hurts losing either Wagner or Clark. But the premise of the exercise is "Have to lose one". Given that, I would advocate trading Clark. Resigning Wagner at or near his current contract is expected. And then freeing the tag for 2019 with Wilson (assuming no extension) is now a possibility.

A Clark trade affords the ability to reload in a year with a historic talent pool. A Wagner trade may not return much -- even though the team is in a tenuous position to absorb the loss with talent already on the roster. Kendricks/Wright raise significant injury risk and would necessitate picking up LB talent. This pool in the draft is quite poor.

I definitely don't see a scenario where Clark and Wilson are both extended this year. And if Wilson isn't extended this year, then there is little chance or motivation on his end to extend in 2020 or 2021. It's a tough decision -- but the way the dominoes stack up here -- the best of a bad situation is to move Clark -- reload at DE (maybe twice?) and extend Wilson and/or Wagner with cap reserves that would have been allocated to Clark.

Keeping Clark, IMO, also implies an inability to extend Wilson. And if we're tagging Wilson, then basically we're ok with losing him for a comp pick in three years. Lose Clark, and you have the ability to extend both and still have a tag free to use with Jarran Reed next year.

If the situation is as dire as you say, then Pete's shot at another Super Bowl left town with Malik McDowell. We're not getting there without multiple sack artists on the line.

It sucks what Dallas did with DeMarcus Lawrence, but it's not as if Jacob Martin (or whomever else you expect to take his place) will be any cheaper than Clark if they reach truly elite status. If Seattle isn't willing to pay this kind of money, they're basically ruling out second contracts for elite pass rushers permanently.

 

[Largent80]

Reed stunk as a pass rushing DT out of college and he reversed that. Martin was coming on at the end of the year and will improve. They let Jordan walk. Got a killer DT UDFA in Ford. They have targets in the draft that can be had in the middle rounds.

I think were in good shape. Everyone says pass rush, but we were one of the worst teams in the league last year at stopping the run and that had a HUGE affect on our pass defense.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

Reed stunk as a pass rushing DT out of college and he reversed that. Martin was coming on at the end of the year and will improve. They let Jordan walk. Got a killer DT UDFA in Ford. They have targets in the draft that can be had in the middle rounds.

I see this as unfounded optimism and a gamble. Martin is still something of an unproven quantity and Ford doesn't project as a pass-rusher. That plus some middle-round projects aren't going to be keeping QB's up at night like our 2013 rush did, even with Reed in the balance.

 

[niveky]

If Clark decides not to sign the Franchise Tag tender he isn't getting traded anywhere, right?

 

[Seymour]

If Clark decides not to sign the Franchise Tag tender he isn't getting traded anywhere, right?

Correct. And he also loses $17 million so not happening!

 

[Largent80]

Reed stunk as a pass rushing DT out of college and he reversed that. Martin was coming on at the end of the year and will improve. They let Jordan walk. Got a killer DT UDFA in Ford. They have targets in the draft that can be had in the middle rounds.

I see this as unfounded optimism and a gamble. Martin is still something of an unproven quantity and Ford doesn't project as a pass-rusher. That plus some middle-round projects aren't going to be keeping QB's up at night like our 2013 rush did, even with Reed in the balance.

Every player is an unproven person until they DO. Middle round projects?..... Martin showed enough in limited time as a rookie to be excited about. So in his second year he's going to disappear? I think otherwise, he's going to improve.

Evidently in your world Martin was invisible and QB's had nothing to fear and isn't going to have any impact this year?

 

[MontanaHawk05]

Reed stunk as a pass rushing DT out of college and he reversed that. Martin was coming on at the end of the year and will improve. They let Jordan walk. Got a killer DT UDFA in Ford. They have targets in the draft that can be had in the middle rounds.

I see this as unfounded optimism and a gamble. Martin is still something of an unproven quantity and Ford doesn't project as a pass-rusher. That plus some middle-round projects aren't going to be keeping QB's up at night like our 2013 rush did, even with Reed in the balance.

Every player is an unproven person until they DO. Middle round projects?..... Martin showed enough in limited time as a rookie to be excited about. So in his second year he's going to disappear? I think otherwise, he's going to improve.

Evidently in your world Martin was invisible and QB's had nothing to fear and isn't going to have any impact this year?

Martin wasn't invisible, but he wasn't terribly impactful, either. "He could improve" is something that got said about Shamar Stephen and Dion Jordan, too. You can't rule anyone out, but "unproven" is still a valid label. And no, I don't think QB's particularly had anything to fear from Martin. They had a lot more to worry about from Clark and Reed.

 

[Largent80]

Martin was a ROOKIE !!!!!

And he flashed in a limited role. That is why I'm stoked for him. Maybe I'm wrong but he showed a lot in a short time.

Montana, you aren't an opposing QB so maybe you otta not diss a guy because of your thought of what the pass rush is going to be. Get your ass behind center and then tell us about it.

 

[sdog1981]

Martin was a ROOKIE !!!!!

And he flashed in a limited role. That is why I'm stoked for him. Maybe I'm wrong but he showed a lot in a short time.

Montana, you aren't an opposing QB so maybe you otta not diss a guy because of your thought of what the pass rush is going to be. Get your ass behind center and then tell us about it.

Exactly. Go back and watch that playoff game against Dallas. He GOT WORKED in that game, on one third-down pass rush attempt he got thrown out of the play. Martin will be a cute player that will get 5-8 sacks a season as the third pass rusher.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

5-8 sacks for a guy playing part time and picked in the 6th round? Yes please

 

[MontanaHawk05]

Martin was a ROOKIE !!!!!

And he flashed in a limited role. That is why I'm stoked for him. Maybe I'm wrong but he showed a lot in a short time.

Montana, you aren't an opposing QB so maybe you otta not diss a guy because of your thought of what the pass rush is going to be. Get your ass behind center and then tell us about it.

The rookie thing is part of my point...whomever we draft, if they become legitimate take-over-the-game threats, they typically don't do so in their first year, which means they next couple of years are likely sub-Lombardi years as well if our pass rush cupboards are empty.

It's nice that he flashed and gives room for some optimism, but a guy can regress, too, especially pass rushers if they have a limited repertoire of moves that can be figured out.

Remember, we're not just talking about replacing a 5-8 sacks per year guy. We're talking about replacing 14, and then probably coming up with another impactful guy.

And I post my honest opinions, Rob, whether I've played football or not. You're just going to have to deal with that.

 

[sdog1981]

5-8 sacks for a guy playing part time and picked in the 6th round? Yes please

In no way am I saying get rid of the guy, but he is not going to be a teams number one pass rushing option.

 

[TheLegendOfBoom]

It sucks cause you'll end up losing both Clark and Reed once Wilson gets his "I wanna be the highest paid player, ever" mega diva contract.

Both Clark and Reed want to be in Seattle but both will be shown the door.

 

[chris98251]

Memory here, but not only was Martin a Rookie he was a JR when he came out and under sized for the roll they want him to play, he was inserted in specific times to get experience or for an emergency and not expected to be a splash player this year.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Of course he's not going to be a top guy, but depth is huge for a D line.