Ouch.

[kearly]

This is the perfect example of how limited DVOA is as a metric.

Arizona was a completely different team, much worse, without Palmer.

Their offense was much worse, but DVOA also factors defense and special teams. Also, the -6.4% number is their score for the whole season, I have no idea what the post-Palmer number is. Probably somewhere between -15% to -20% if I had to guess. Which is a pretty substantial difference, it's just not as big as I would have guessed.

For what it's worth, Advanced NFL stats actually had Arizona ranked even lower at week 10 than FO did, they had Arizona 19th in their team ratings last year before any of the backups had started a game. And their end of year post-Palmer plunge only dropped them from 19th to 21st by Advanced NFL Stats metrics.

 

[UK_Seahawk]

Kaep needed a few beers to relax after the game but for some reason decided not to buy any when he got to the store.

 

[Scottemojo]

Arians makes football fun to watch.

 

[hawknation2015]

Best thread ever:
http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niner ... -team-nfl/

 

[Alexander]

Arizona does look good. Blowouts matter, even against bad teams. But jeez, they have gotten the cream of the crap so far.

They won't play a team you'd expect to finish with a winning record until week 10 (Seattle). Other than Pittsburgh, who will be without Big Ben.

After Arizona's week 9 bye week, their schedule is really tough. Which is good because there is a high chance they'll start 8-0.

It's becoming annoying the comments about the Cards this year. Even you Kearly must admit that all info from last year is without their QB. Rams had none last year either.

The entire last year the NFC W was Kap and Wilson, and the other two teams. Now AZ has their QB and you act like they are lucky to be good.

You are like one second from me wishing you lose Wilson and then see you talk.

eta: not that my wishes matter. I've just never wished or thought about wishing injury on anyone before. Your arrogance is annoying.

This is totally off base. All info from last year is without their QB? They played most of their season WITH Palmer, and every metric under the sun said they were weren't nearly as good as their record. When they won games last year, it was always close, even against not-so-great teams, and they seemed to have a preternatural ability to get good teams on an off week. Didn't they play Dallas last year without Romo? Now they get Pittsburgh without Big Ben.

This year they're actually blowing teams out, so they may finally be legit. I think you see many of the posters here acknowledging that. There isn't nearly the same degree of skepticism towards the Cardinals this year as there was last year. Some skepticism, sure, but I think that's warranted after only three games. I don't understand why that annoys you so much.

 

[Ambrose83]

It's becoming annoying the comments about the Cards this year. Even you Kearly must admit that all info from last year is without their QB. Rams had none last year either.

The entire last year the NFC W was Kap and Wilson, and the other two teams. Now AZ has their QB and you act like they are lucky to be good.

You are like one second from me wishing you lose Wilson and then see you talk.

eta: not that my wishes matter. I've just never wished or thought about wishing injury on anyone before. Your arrogance is annoying.

Arizona might be a really good team this year. The facts do not suggest they were a good team last season.

The Cardinals were sitting at a +3.3% DVOA in week 10 last year, before any of Palmer's backups had started a game. Arizona's DVOA at the end of the season was -6.4%, which suggests that while the team was bad after Palmer went down, it wasn't massively worse than the team with Palmer.

For comparison, Seattle finished last season with a +31.9% DVOA, which was almost 10 times further from the median than the Cardinals were WITH Palmer.

Basically, Arizona was a mediocre team last year that got some fluky wins both before and after Palmer's injury. You won't find many teams that post a -6.4% DVOA and get to 11 wins while playing in the toughest division in football. It was a fluky season.

So far this year, Arizona is on a massive tear. But when you look at the 3 opponents they've played, they all look they will be picking in the top 5 next April. Like I said, I think they will probably start 8-0 now that Big Ben is down for the count (already the 2nd time the Cardinals will face a backup QB this season). The Rams traveling to Arizona next week might actually be the best team Arizona plays in the first half of their schedule.

I would feel so differently if Arizona opened up 3-0 with wins over Seattle, Green Bay, and Cincy. I guess it's fitting since Arians is their coach, but even when they rack up good records it feels hollow when those wins all happen against terrible teams or even some decent teams that just fall flat on their face that week. It's just like the Colts the last few years.

I actually grew up and graduated high school in Arizona and have long liked the Cardinals as my 2nd team. I have nothing against them and I think they have played extremely well so far in 2015. I just would like to see them tested by a legit playoff team before I put much stock in their prospects. And the only playoff contender they'll face before week 10 will be starting Michael Vick. They're gonna start 8-0, but it will be 8 straight layups made, not 8 straight jumpers. Maybe they keep it rolling and win the SB. I just think the context demands a degree of skepticism. Especially since Palmer's current passer rating is more than 30 points above his career average. I just don't see that holding up for 16 games.

I think Arizona will stumble at the end of the year when Palmer will likely be less than 100% and they start facing real teams. I'd bet that Seattle is at least 3 games back of AZ at some point this year, but that they'll go into the week 17 game with a chance to win the division.

3-0 vs teams that are a combined 1-8.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

.............I'd bet that Seattle is at least 3 games back of AZ at some point this year, but that they'll go into the week 17 game with a chance to win the division.

Concur

 

[byau]

I'll get this over early. ;-)

Gratz Ringless and all Cards fans here.

That was gruesome. No excuses. This is not to take blame away from him as Kap played poorly for sure but the offensive line is the worst in the NFL. They can't run block. They can't pass block. Basically, they can't block. I said before that I thought the 49ers had a chance to be decent. The last two losses of the offseason absolutely killed them. Anthony Davis on the right side of the line and Aldon Smith to apply some kind of pressure without blitzing.

If something doesn't change there quickly week 1 may be the only win they get this year.

Gratz to the Cards on a 3-0 start and what looks like a 2 game lead on the entire division.

Yeah that was a tough one for you 49ers folks.

I want to add to this though that you were playing the Cardinals. They are looking real legit this season.

While last season they went, what, 9-0 for the first 9 games, the talking heads and articles seemed to be slightly surprised by it (I didn't watch any of those games so I'm just basing that on what I heard from national sports radio)

The fact that this year they are doing it again and in dominating fashion, definitely looks legit. In fact, hard to not want to put odds on them to win the NFC West.

Anyway, just sayin' sure unfortunately it was an ugly game your 49ers had, I'm sure a lot of that was the dominating and championship play by the Cardinals too.

 

[ringless]

Arizona does look good. Blowouts matter, even against bad teams. But jeez, they have gotten the cream of the crap so far.

They won't play a team you'd expect to finish with a winning record until week 10 (Seattle). Other than Pittsburgh, who will be without Big Ben.

After Arizona's week 9 bye week, their schedule is really tough. Which is good because there is a high chance they'll start 8-0.

It's becoming annoying the comments about the Cards this year. Even you Kearly must admit that all info from last year is without their QB. Rams had none last year either.

The entire last year the NFC W was Kap and Wilson, and the other two teams. Now AZ has their QB and you act like they are lucky to be good.

You are like one second from me wishing you lose Wilson and then see you talk.

eta: not that my wishes matter. I've just never wished or thought about wishing injury on anyone before. Your arrogance is annoying.

This is totally off base. All info from last year is without their QB? They played most of their season WITH Palmer, and every metric under the sun said they were weren't nearly as good as their record. When they won games last year, it was always close, even against not-so-great teams, and they seemed to have a preternatural ability to get good teams on an off week. Didn't they play Dallas last year without Romo? Now they get Pittsburgh without Big Ben.

This year they're actually blowing teams out, so they may finally be legit. I think you see many of the posters here acknowledging that. There isn't nearly the same degree of skepticism towards the Cardinals this year as there was last year. Some skepticism, sure, but I think that's warranted after only three games. I don't understand why that annoys you so much.

Palmer was 6-0 as a starter last year. Playing in 6 games of 16. That is not most games. Not even half

 

[byau]

I'll get this over early. ;-)

Gratz Ringless and all Cards fans here.

That was gruesome. No excuses. This is not to take blame away from him as Kap played poorly for sure but the offensive line is the worst in the NFL. They can't run block. They can't pass block. Basically, they can't block. I said before that I thought the 49ers had a chance to be decent. The last two losses of the offseason absolutely killed them. Anthony Davis on the right side of the line and Aldon Smith to apply some kind of pressure without blitzing.

If something doesn't change there quickly week 1 may be the only win they get this year.

Gratz to the Cards on a 3-0 start and what looks like a 2 game lead on the entire division.

Yeah that was a tough one for you 49ers folks.

I want to add to this though that you were playing the Cardinals. They are looking real legit this season.

While last season they went, what, 9-0 for the first 9 games, the talking heads and articles seemed to be slightly surprised by it (I didn't watch any of those games so I'm just basing that on what I heard from national sports radio)

The fact that this year they are doing it again and in dominating fashion, definitely looks legit. In fact, hard to not want to put odds on them to win the NFC West.

Anyway, just sayin' sure unfortunately it was an ugly game your 49ers had, I'm sure a lot of that was the dominating and championship play by the Cardinals too.

btw, just out of curiosity just looked it up. Impressive stats to back it up:

Total Points:
Cardinals #1: 126
Patriots #2: 119
(no other team above 100)

Total Points Allowed:
Packers #1: 40
Jets #2: 41
Panthers #3: 48
Broncos/Cardinals #4: 49

Total Differential
Cardinals #1: 77
Patriots #2: 49
Bills #3: 32
(no one else above 30)

 

[Trenchbroom]

Reading Denialzone and the comments on Kawakami's piece. Moments like this just brings out the best in the Niner faithful. And it makes for an even more delicious Victory Monday. :snack:

 

[ringless]

I guess I would like to add a few things about the DVOA etc. This is more towards Kearly

Are the Rams a good team or a bad team? After this week the Cardinals and Seahawks would have had two games in common and Seattle is playing a bad Detroit Team which I'd say you could put in line with our home opener against the Saints to make that a fair comparison. Which means 3 games against weak teams.

You count the Bears game as playing against their backup QB. But we were already up 28-14 when Cutler went out. The Cardinals were always in control during that game. I don't think Cutler was going to come back from down by 14 at that point anyways.

The Seahawks have also gotten to face teams with their share of injuries.
They got to face a Bears team missing their starting QB for the whole game. Not just a half and at home! Missing their top two WR/s to boot.

They got to play a GB team missing half of their team and still couldn't get the job done. Missing their top 2 playmakers on offense. An important lineman and LB.

They got to play STL without their top two RB's which many consider their top threats on offense.

You guys get to play Dallas without Dez and Romo. Again why does it only count when AZ plays a team with a backup and not Seattle?

Why does it only count when Arizona plays the bears for a half without their QB but when the Seahawks play teams that have had severe injuries it doesnt?

It's not like the games have been close. Arizona hasn't trailed this season, and all of their wins have been dominating wins in all phases of the game and I think that should matter. I did see that it was written on the site themselves that Arizona despite having mediocre performances has always outperformed their expectations and they say that is a result of Arians coaching. I think that has to be taken into account as well. If we win this week they rhetoric will be the Rams are a bad team that only show up for the Seahawks. This year again, the third season in a row they were suppose to revert back to mean and that hasn't happened. No matter what DVOA says, you can look at the stats and PPG and see there was a huge drop off in Yards, PPG, and TOP from Palmer to the backups

I've said all along I think Arizona is still the second best team in the division in saying all of that.

One thing I find interesting about DVOA last year is it says that there wasn't a significant drop off. But boy there sure was in points. We scored 10.6 more points per game I believe with Carson than without. That seems like a significant drop off even if DVOA doesnt reflect it. But if we are talking about this year DVOA is saying this is the 2nd best team since 1989 next to only the 07 Patriots. Again, I think it is a useful tool. But it is not without it's issues

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

........I've said all along I think Arizona is still the second best team in the division in saying all of that.

I'm not sure I believe you really feel that way and aren't actually soft pedaling us ringless, especially now after the start your team has gotten off to. I base that on your argument above. Of course only you know for sure how you really feel. I will say it's possible that you talk this way as a subconscious coping mechanism in case your team doesn't win again this season because you've been conditioned over the years to expect that to be the case. As a lifelong Seahawks fan, I know how that is.

 

[ringless]

........I've said all along I think Arizona is still the second best team in the division in saying all of that.

I'm not sure I believe you really feel that way and aren't actually soft pedaling us ringless, especially now after the start your team has gotten off to. I base that on your argument above. Of course only you know for sure how you really feel. I will say it's possible that you talk this way as a subconscious coping mechanism in case your team doesn't win again this season because you've been conditioned over the years to expect that to be the case. As a lifelong Seahawks fan, I know how that is.

There is truth in this. We have started off fast before and it has fallen apart. I am always waiting for the other shoe to drop off. I believe it will when our LB/NT situation is exposed right in the gut of the defense. We haven't won a lot, or had a history of winning so it's hard to expect to win. Even when I think we will I see a ton of warning signs on why we wont.

I know Seattles defense is better than the Cardinals. That is something I have no doubt about what so ever. I also believe Seattles special teams are better than ours. Lockette, I don't even know why a team would ever kick to him. Our Kicker missed 3XP between the pre-season and this season and I don't think yours has missed any.

Offensively we have a very aggressive offense and while I think we have the better offense. I still feel that Seattles offense has the weapons to match anyone when they have too. But they don't. I think a good defense beats a good offense any day and Seattle has shown that. I have seen the Hawks winning consistently. I have seen their slow starts in games and the last few seasons. I know how they finish. Their games almost look like their season does. They may start slow in a game, but when they get a lead the blood is in the water. The defense swarms and when they make a team on dimensional the game is always over.

I think the Cardinals are currently an excellent team, top 3 in the NFC. But still behind GB, and Seattle. I don't think we are too far behind but if I had to put a bet on it. Either one would likely beat us in the playoffs.

 

[Rex]

I'm just flattered that you chose to address Seattle and Arizona fans before posting your post-game thoughts over on the Webzone, Marv. :179417: :179417: :179417:

Rams fans. Don't forget Rams fans. Never ever forget Rams fans. :141847_bnono:

 

[Rex]

Kaep needed a few beers to relax after the game but for some reason decided not to buy any when he got to the store.

:lol:

 

[Popeyejones]

3-0 vs teams that are a combined 1-8.

But AZ is also just blowing the doors off of everyone. It's not like they're winning while letting really crappy teams hang around through halftime.

I never thought I'd say this and I obviously have my doubts that it will last the whole season, but until further notice they're the best team in the NFCW, and it isn't close.

 

[Rex]

3-0 is as good as it gets. Doesn't matter what teams it was against. ringless you go on getting those well deserved pounds of flesh from those naysayers......because the Rams are arriving hungry and it will be feast time for the Rams! :0190l:

 

[Hasselbeck]

I'm just flattered that you chose to address Seattle and Arizona fans before posting your post-game thoughts over on the Webzone, Marv. :179417: :179417: :179417:

Rams fans. Don't forget Rams fans. Never ever forget Rams fans. :141847_bnono:

They exist?

 

[ringless]

3-0 is as good as it gets. Doesn't matter what teams it was against. ringless you go on getting those well deserved pounds of flesh from those naysayers......because the Rams are arriving hungry and it will be feast time for the Rams! :0190l:

I think if we beat you guys I then will be finally feeling pretty confident. But we are only one week away right now from having Seattle coming up quick on us. Things can change quick in the NFL. A win this week and I think it will go a long way towards whats trying to be accomplished bc we will have a slightly firmer grip on an early division lead if we can get to 2-0 in the division. But the game still has to be played, and any time you go up against a dangerous defense dangerous things can happen.