Poll: Does JS Stay At #5 Or Trade Out?

[Mick063]

There is no definite answer. If Carter falls, they don't trade out.

It is an unanswerable question. Both can happen based upon circumstances beyond their control.

 

[NoGain]

Voted stay, but totally depends. Is one of the players they covet to be had with the #5 pick? Does some team like Carolina give you, say, two number ones to move up, or something equally attractive or more? Are the only players they think worth #5 status gone?

Almost impossible to say, seems to me.

 

[Chawker]

If a team like the Raiders at 7 or the Panthers at 9, like Levis QB and think he's there guy.

If the first four goes as planned we'll still have Wilson and Bresee on the board, we could pick up a 2nd and 3rd round picks with ease and still come away with a great pick.

The Falcons at 8 could be added to that list as well.

Cheers

 

[Anajimmc]

I voted trades back, as I believe the chancers of either Carter or Anderson being there at 5 is pretty low. There's enough hunger for QB's that might allow the Hawks to get their man at around the Carolina pick then also pick up another 2nd round pick that will still be loaded with talent.

 

[Sun Tzu]

Simple yes or no. What do you think? If history serves, I would say he trades out.

If you actually want a "simple yes or no", why interject your personal spin/bias into the wording of the poll? This is a legitimate question on my part, not trying to be a dick here.

 

[AgentDib]

A few people seem to be worried that we're going to trade from #5 down to #30 or something. For that to happen we'd need really amazing compensation probably centered around a top player.

The vastly more likely trade down scenario is that we drop a few spots because we think our guy will still be there, or that there isn't a huge difference between a handful of guys we are targeting. The best interior DL left at #5 could be Bryan Bresee with a consensus rank of #14 as of today. Picking him at #5 wouldn't feel great. Picking him at #12 after also netting an early second round pick would feel pretty good.

 

[AROS]

If you actually want a "simple yes or no", why interject your personal spin/bias into the wording of the poll? This is a legitimate question on my part, not trying to be a dick here.

Good point. I will remove the needless language.

 

[knownone]

From what I've read, this is not a particularly deep first round, so I can't imagine we trade out unless someone gives up significant capital. Most pundits indicate that the high-end talent falls off after the 8th pick and plateaus until around pick 50.

 

[Shane Falco]

I feel like it's more likely that they move back with #20 than with #5. But if some team can get a QB there and there is a crazy offer then I can only imagine he'd jump on it. I'm gonna guess that we don't get that offer and hopefully end up with a stud player.

 

[Hawkinaz]

From what I've read, this is not a particularly deep first round, so I can't imagine we trade out unless someone gives up significant capital. Most pundits indicate that the high-end talent falls off after the 8th pick and plateaus until around pick 50.

I agree. The last 1/3 of the 1st rd is projected to be 2nd riders in other drafts. There is talk of trading down but in that circumstance why would another team trade up? Usually teams will want to trade back in the 1st rd to get a 5th yr option usually with a QB

 

[FattyKnuckle]

It’s hard to say based off one phenomenal draft but I don’t think they did more than one move late in the draft, maybe none at all, and they nailed it. I’m hoping they use the same strategy and if they can be half as successful then we’ll be in good shape. Hands down best draft of the year and gotta be one of the better all time drafts, after the first season. We’ll have to wait and see in 2-4 more years how the class shakes out.

 

[sutz]

I agree. The last 1/3 of the 1st rd is projected to be 2nd riders in other drafts.

That is true every year.

 

[Appyhawk]

If JS trades down from #5 I'll consider jumping on the 'trade JS' bandwagon. And I love the guy, but this is a rare opportunity for us and we have to help it leave a long term mark. We need a game changer.

 

[SmokinHawk]

He trades out. Schneider doesn't know what to do with a pick that high. He might draft a Russell Okung, an Earl Thomas, another LJ Collier or Bruce Irvin.

 

[Chukarhawk]

I think Carter has bust written all over him. I hope he's gone when we pick. I'd love it if Anderson was there at 5. If not and we get some crazy trade up offers. Take it.

 

[AgentDib]

At the end of the day the Hawks need players, difference makers not assets. You trade back when you want rotational guys. We need a couple of bad asses on the D line and at linebacker

I don't agree with this conceptually. Historically, teams clearly find difference makers throughout the draft, including in UDFA. The probability gets lower as you move down, but with more picks you also have more total opportunities. The math to calculate which is better depends on your assumptions about how much certainty there is in the draft process. Less uncertainty makes higher picks look better while more uncertainty slants the math towards favoring more chances.

In my view, the fact that you can find star players well into the very bottom of the draft is strong evidence that the draft process is high uncertain.

Time and again we see that the most important metric for a prospect is their mental makeup: ambition, grit, work ethic, football IQ. Guys like Eddie Jackson check all those boxes now with the benefit of hindsight, but in the draft process are mostly indistinguishable from all the rest who are coached by their agents to say exactly the same things. You can talk to their coaches, hire PIs to talk to their ex-teammates and ex-girlfriends, interview them multiple times throughout the process, and it's still imperfect because even the players themselves don't know how they are really going to adapt to the NFL environment and suddenly being rich.

The #5 overall pick will receive a signing bonus of 21 million dollars this year. How many people reading this forum would put in even 50% effort at work if suddenly given $21m? How many would put in 90% effort? 100% effort? Now think about how few would put in 110% effort - from diet to sleep to the weight room to the class room to the practice field. We'll never be able to predict that well, and our current prediction ability is frankly terrible.

Making matters worse, injuries are pervasive and strike even the hardest working players with the best medical grades. Maybe you hit on a promising CB like Tre Brown only for them to suffer a torn patella tendon.

If you look at draft picks like uncertain lottery tickets then quantity isn't a tradeoff for quality but rather the path to quality.

 

[FrodosFinger]

I don't agree with this conceptually. Historically, teams clearly find difference makers throughout the draft, including in UDFA. The probability gets lower as you move down, but with more picks you also have more total opportunities. The math to calculate which is better depends on your assumptions about how much certainty there is in the draft process. Less uncertainty makes higher picks look better while more uncertainty slants the math towards favoring more chances.

In my view, the fact that you can find star players well into the very bottom of the draft is strong evidence that the draft process is high uncertain.

Time and again we see that the most important metric for a prospect is their mental makeup: ambition, grit, work ethic, football IQ. Guys like Eddie Jackson check all those boxes now with the benefit of hindsight, but in the draft process are mostly indistinguishable from all the rest who are coached by their agents to say exactly the same things. You can talk to their coaches, hire PIs to talk to their ex-teammates and ex-girlfriends, interview them multiple times throughout the process, and it's still imperfect because even the players themselves don't know how they are really going to adapt to the NFL environment and suddenly being rich.

The #5 overall pick will receive a signing bonus of 21 million dollars this year. How many people reading this forum would put in even 50% effort at work if suddenly given $21m? How many would put in 90% effort? 100% effort? Now think about how few would put in 110% effort - from diet to sleep to the weight room to the class room to the practice field. We'll never be able to predict that well, and our current prediction ability is frankly terrible.

Making matters worse, injuries are pervasive and strike even the hardest working players with the best medical grades. Maybe you hit on a promising CB like Tre Brown only for them to suffer a torn patella tendon.

If you look at draft picks like uncertain lottery tickets then quantity isn't a tradeoff for quality but rather the path to quality.

Top 5 picks are already rich before they turn pro. There’s 5 top 5 D lineman on the board that could make an immediate rookie impact with Carter, Anderson, Wilson, Bresee and Murphy. It’s a crap shoot for sure but if we can get a guy like Micah Parsons then you don’t trade back.

 

[jammerhawk]

I voted for JS to trade back and to pick up more draft picks.

However, it will undoubtedly depend upon who is left at pick 5 and what the trade compensation will be if they trade back.

I think both picks could be dealt for more picks.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

The general consensus is there's a drop off in elite talent after Anderson and Carter.

So if neither of those players are there at #5, we trade down.

But a question no one's asking is will we even find a trade partner? If this is the general consensus that there's a drop off after Anderson and Carter, and the QB needy teams right after us like the Raiders, Falcons and Panthers don't think the QB's after Stroud and Young are worth trading up for, we might HAVE to pick at 5.

 

[SNDavidson]

I mentioned in another thread, I personally feel like it's Jalen Carter or trade back to the 10's...