Now, to make sure I'm being very thorough regarding the first round, let's analyze every single pick made from 17-32 in the 2015 through 2018 drafts to see how many of these guys end up being good starters, even if they haven't made a Pro Bowl. We'll chalk the non-good starters up in a bust column. I'm not including 2019 or 2020 because it's simply too soon to tell, and it'd be way too much of a projection to assign a label to them just yet.
2015:
17. Arik Armstead. Very good.
18. Marcus Peters. Good, Pro Bowler.
19. Cameron Erving. Bust.
20. Nelson Agholor. Career negative DYAR per Football Outsiders. Replacement level. Bust.
21. Cedric Ogbuehi. Has been terrible, is now a Seahawks backup. Bust.
22. Bud Dupree. Hit.
23. Shane Ray. 1 alright year, currently unemployed. Bust.
24. DJ Humphries. We're gonna call him a hit. His play has been bad at times, but quite good at others, including currently.
25. Shaq Thompson. We'll call him a hit. Decent starter. His best ball is behind him, but I'll be generous.
26. Breshad Perriman. Bust.
27. Bryon Jones. Good, Pro Bowler.
28. Laken Tomlinson. Bust.
29. Phillip Dorsett. Bust, on Seahawks.
30. Damarious Randall. Bust, on Seahawks.
31. Stephone Anthony. Bust. Unemployed.
32. Malcom Brown. We'll call him a hit. Decent starter.
Out of these 16, 9 were busts. Bust rate of 56.25%.
2016:
17. Keanu Neal. Hit. Probowl.
18. Ryan Kelly. Hit. Probowl.
19. Shaq Lawson. Average. Not a full bust, but not a good starter, so bust column.
20. Darron Lee. Holy bust.
21. Will Fuller. I'll very generously include him, considering he's been injured for nearly half his games. Career +DYAR.
22. Josh Doctson. B-b-b-BUST.
23. Laquon Treadwell. Bust city.
24. William Jackson. Hit.
25. Artie Burns. Bust.
26. Paxton Lynch. Bust.
27. Kenny Clark. Probowl.
28. Joshua Garnett. Bust.
29. Voided due to Belicheat's flat balls.
30. Vernon Butler. Replacement level. Not including as a good starter. Bust.
31. Germain Ifedi. We were definitely too hard on him, but we'll chalk him in the bust column. Bust.
32. Emmanuel Ogbah. We'll chalk him as a hit. Not a franchise rusher, but a decent enough starter.
Out of these 15, 8 are replacement level or complete busts. 53.33% bust rate.
2017:
17. Jonathan Allen. Good starter. Hit.
18. Adoree Jackson. Sure, hit.
19. OJ Howard. I mean... he's plus DYAR, but injured a lot. We'll err on the side of hit.
20. Garrett Bolles. He gets a lot of hate, but I'm considering him a hit, even disregarding his improved 2020 play. But he's had a good few hiccups.
21. Jarrad Davis. He's playing better this year, but has been bad for every other year. Bust.
22. Charles Harris. Bust.
23. Evan Engram. He gets volume, but +8 DYAR for career? Nah, bust column. Not a "good" starter, just a starter.
24. Gareon Conley. Average. Bust column, not a good starter.
25. Jabrill Peppers. Let's call him a hit. Rough rookie season, good since.
26. Takk McKinley. He's right on the line. I'm gonna err bust. Fifth year decline, sacks numbers tailed off after 2 alright starting years in the league.
27. Tre'Davious White. Probowl.
28. Taco Charlton. Bust.
29. David Njoku. Bust. Injuries have hurt him, and he was no better than Engram to begin with.
30. TJ Watt. Hit. Probowl.
31. Reuben Foster. Obviously good, but bust due to off-field career sabotage and then injury. Bust.
32. Ryan Ramczyk. Hit.
Out of these 16, 8 are replacement level or complete busts. 50% bust rate. Not as many outright busts this year.
2018:
17. Derwin James. Probowl.
18. Jaire Alexander. Hit.
19. Leighton Vander Esch. Probowl.
20. Frank Ragnow. Hit.
21. Billy Price. Bust.
22. Rashaan Evans. Replacement level bust.
23. Isaiah Wynn. Injured for most games. Bust.
24. DJ Moore. Hit.
25. Hayden Hurst. Bust.. but playing a bit better this year. Still not "good" starter.
26. Calvin Ridley. Hit.
27. Rashaad Penny. Talented, but bust.
28. Terrell Edmunds. Replacement level. Bust.
29. Taven Bryan. Bust.
30. Mike Hughes. On the bust side.
31. Sony Michel. We'll call him a hit.
32. Lamar Jackson. Probowl.
Out of these 16, 8 are replacement level or busts so far in their short careers. 50% bust rate.
Now, lets dig into this. We can see that the bust rate hovers around 50% at the backend of the first, fairly consistently, too.
So, let's start by editing the demonstrably inflated criteria for back-of-first-round success to just landing a good starter instead of a Pro Bowler. In these 4 drafts, the most recent drafts within which we can somewhat-comfortably assign a value/label to a player, 63 players were picked in the back end of the first round. 30 players were good enough to be assigned the label of being an above average starter.
That's a 47.6% chance of landing a good starter in the back of the first round. Less than a coin flips chance. With the pie-in-the-sky "SOP" of expecting a Pro Bowler from a first round pick, ignoring the context of these picks being LATE first rounders, you, the FANS are setting yourselves up for disappointment by misinforming yourself about the caliber of talent that's generally available. Stars do not grow on trees. The chances of getting a Pro Bowler, even with Seattle's HIGHEST pick, are very slim. Even expecting a GOOD starter from these late first rounders is slightly less than even odds.
I'll do a less exhaustive review of what can be reasonably expected, using the same drafts from 2015-2018, from the later rounds at another time. But, really, it's already crystal clear that we need to drastically bring our expectations from the draft out of fairytale land and back down to earth. This isn't Madden, and 2010/2012 weren't sustainable levels of success. So, please, let's temper our expectations and perspective based on the actual reality of what these picks end up being.
PS... yeah. I voted for the second option.