I sure hope that your team takes Rawls as lightly as you do.
With the caveat that using 40 times to compare running back quality and speed is patently ridiculous, the truth is their 40 times are exactly the same, and compare favorably to Adrian Peterson's. Rawls did have an off day at the combine, but did quite well at his pro day.*
| 40 Low | 40 Time | 40 High |
---|
Rawls | 4.36 | 4.46 | 4.57 |
Lynch | 4.36 | 4.46 | 4.57 |
Peterson | 4.30 | 4.40 | 4.51 |
Even their 10 and 20 yard splits are pretty close if you use Rawl's pro day*
| 10 yard | 20 yard | 40 yard |
---|
Rawls (Combine) | 1.69 | 2.76 | 4.65 |
Rawls (Pro Day) | 1.63 | 2.62 | 4.46 |
Lynch (Combine) | 1.60 | 2.67 | 4.46 |
Peterson (Combine) | 1.57 | 2.60 | 4.41 |
This somewhat supports my contention that Rawls success was not because he was hitting the holes faster. Better at reading where the holes will be, or trusting his line to open the hole laid out in the game plan maybe, but he isn't getting to the hole faster than Lynch because of faster acceleration.
Top speed last year wasn't even close though. Lynch was running in the 15 mph to 17 mph range in the open field while Rawls hit 20.48 mph. For comparison, Adrian Peterson hit 21.89 mph.
The thing is, I don't particularly care about any of that. It's one metric for comparing backs, but it's among the least important. All three have very different running styles and the more important question is how they use their speed to produce.
In that regard, Rawls showed more promise last year than Lynch ever has in his career. He had two games in his rookie campaign where he gained more rushing yards (209 yards, 169 yards) than Lynch ever has (153 yards) in a single game. By way of comparison, only four backs in the NFL had a game with over 200 yards last year, and Adrian Peterson has only done it 6 times in his career.
The fact that he did it against a down trodden defense does not make it any less impressive. It was still a NFL defense. And there are a ton of bad defenses every year that don't give up 200 yard rushing games.
In his shortened rookie season, some of which he shared significant amounts of playing time with Lynch, he had 4 games of over 100 yards. This compares favorably to Lynch's final full season in 2014 where he had 5 games of over 100 yards. He averaged 5.6 YPC compared to 4.7 YPC for 2014 Lynch. The closest Lynch came to duplicating that number was in 2012 when he ran for 5.0 YPC.
The million dollar question though is how will he recover from his injury. It also remains to be seen if he can be supplanted by one of our new backs this year.
* per nfldraftscouts.com